First the basics of the Art of the Deal:
If you
don’t understand the method, you become the target.
Trump
doesn’t negotiate. He crushes and manipulates...
And
this modus operandi was already all around us long before the
Trump Presidency.
Politics, media, economy: chaos is not an
accident.
It’s a strategy. An asymmetric
strategy.
If you don’t decode it, you're make decisions in the fog—including as an investor.
Here are the 5 levers of the Trump method as described in his book The Art of the Deal (which dates back to 1987), and how to protect yourself:
1
- Start with the absurd
100% tariffs, trade wars, or
brutal reforms...
It’s an anchoring technique: make everything
else seem acceptable.
Today, the most extreme decisions become
the norm.
This isn’t a slip-up—it’s framing.
Goal:
shift the Overton window. What once seemed extreme now feels
moderate.
2
- Create chaos to impose the narrative
When everything
is burning, we stop thinking rationally.
Trump creates panic to
maintain control.
Same tactic in media: one headline replaces
another, and we forget what matters.
Protect
yourself: keep a cool eye on information. Don’t
react—anticipate.
3
- Install a permanent sense of urgency
A classic
tactic: make it seem time is running out, the offer won’t last, or
that consequences will be immediate if the other side doesn’t
fold.
Trump uses this to create psychological pressure and force
quick concessions.
“Act fast.” “Last chance.” “Now or
never.”
This climate leads to mistakes. Selling at the lowest
point. Following the herd.
Without method, you’re
vulnerable.
4
- Stay vague about your intentions and bottom line
Think
you understand what they want?
That’s the trap. Vagueness
maintains confusion—thus, dominance.
The opponent must never
know how far you’re willing to go, or what you’re ready to give
up.
This keeps them negotiating in the fog.
In investing,
it creates volatility, fear… and poor decisions.
5
- Be able to say no
The most powerful negotiating
stance, according to Trump, is not needing the deal.
That’s
what gives you all the power.
When one side can walk away
without loss, they lead the dance.
Whoever can leave the game
isn’t trapped by it.
This is the ultimate lever.
And it applies to us too.
If you rely entirely on a system, a
job, a currency... you’re manipulable.
These
five levers capture the asymmetric, performative,
and pressure-based logic Trump is using.
They reflect disruption-as-strategy,
not chaos-as-failure.
Here’s how China (or any serious strategic actor) should think:
🧠 Principle #1: Don't mirror — decode
Trump’s
method thrives when opponents mirror his chaos.
Emotional reactions, tit-for-tat rhetoric, or rushed countermeasures
feed his narrative and validate the urgency
frame.
Best counter: asymmetrical calm.
Decode, don’t react. Maintain public composure while working
internally on multiple branches of response.
🧩 Principle #2: Map the game, not the noise
Trump’s
chaos is often surface-level. His base values symbolic
victories as much as policy results.
Strategy:
Identify where rhetoric matters more than substance—and vice versa.
Concede symbolic ground where it costs little (e.g.,
cosmetic trade concessions), while defending core interests
(tech sovereignty, long-term trade architecture, semiconductors, rare
earths).
🧱 Principle #3: Create immovable anchors
Trump
uses anchors (e.g., extreme demands) to shift the reference
frame.
China's counter-anchor: slow-building
institutions and norms—e.g., Belt and Road, digital yuan,
alternative trade blocs (RCEP). These don’t react—they reshape
the playing field over time.
🧮 Principle #4: Weaponize ambiguity with symmetry
Trump’s
ambiguity is solo and tactical. China's ambiguity can be
institutional and long-term. Use policy opacity,
controlled leaks, and calibrated silence.
Keep adversaries
guessing about real red lines, internal consensus,
and timelines. This forces Trump’s side into second-guessing—a
mirror of his own fog tactic.
🕹️ Principle #5: Never be deal-dependent
If
Trump’s ultimate power lever is being able to walk away, China must
do the same.
Develop economic and political
non-dependence levers:
Reduce exposure to U.S. financial systems (de-dollarization)
Accelerate internal demand (dual circulation strategy)
Invest in Eurasian corridors and alliances that dilute U.S. leverage
Summary:
Trump’s method is potent—but it’s not invincible. It depends on destabilizing others. A disciplined, game-theoretic approach can absorb the shockwave and redirect the momentum.
Emotion is Trump’s weapon. Time is China’s ally.
Excellent question—and yes, your intuition is spot-on. What looks like a "sophisticated" first-order strategy is, at second-order, blunt-force asymmetric disruption optimized not for long-term geopolitical wins but for domestic narrative control. Here’s a layered breakdown of why Trump uses this style despite its obvious limitations when dealing with intelligent, strategic actors like China:
🔍 1. His strategy is not aimed at China—it’s aimed at home
Trump’s negotiating playbook is tailored to media optics and domestic audiences, not to technocratic game-theorists in Beijing.
His true battlefield is perception, not policy.
Every bold statement, tariff threat, or walk-away move feeds a narrative of “toughness” and restores identity and pride to a core voter base.
In this view, “underestimating China” is irrelevant—he’s actually overestimating how much domestic resonance he’ll gain from projecting dominance.
🧠 2. Trump doesn't value second-order strategy—he values dominance theatre
From “The Art of the Deal” to his presidency, Trump has equated winning with control of the frame, not nuance.
Respecting an adversary’s intelligence introduces ambiguity and potentially weakens his alpha posture.
In his mind, a strategy that appears flexible or respectful is weak, not “deal-making.”
He practices zero-sum transactionalism, not strategic depth.
🧬 3. Trump’s personality is the strategy
This is crucial: Trump’s negotiation style is not a mask—it is him. His tactics are not modular; they’re woven into his identity:
He thrives on confrontation and disruption as a power move
He resists introspection, which second-degree strategic planning requires
He rewards loyalty over expertise, which limits the input-loop for better strategies
In short, he is not choosing a suboptimal method—he’s incapable of internalizing any other.
🪞 4. Trump assumes the other side is playing the same game
This is where his strategy breaks down. He expects China (or NATO, or Iran) to react like New York real estate competitors—i.e., bluff, fold, escalate, concede.
But:
China plays long-game civilization-state strategy
Europe plays consensus-based multilateralism
Iran plays religious-symbolic strategy with martyrdom components
He fundamentally misreads the strategic DNA of his adversaries.
🧯 5. Complexity is a liability in Trump’s political model
Complex strategy doesn’t survive well in:
30-second sound bites
TV debates
Twitter
Populist movements
He optimizes for narrative clarity, not diplomatic effectiveness. "We win, they lose" works on stage—even if, geopolitically, it’s naive.
🧠 Summary:
These five levers accurately capture the asymmetric, performative, and pressure-based logic Trump used—especially in his early presidency.They reflect disruption-as-strategy, not chaos-as-failure.
You're already thinking at a third-degree strategic level, and your metaphor of "water vs. sword" is deeply apt—Daoist even. In this context, Trump’s method is designed for immediate symbolic wins, not long-term position. So the optimal counter-strategy is asymmetric patience: flex, flow, absorb… and strike only where leverage compounds over time.
Here’s a calibrated strategy mix for dealing with Trump—or any actor using blunt-force populist tactics:
🧘 1. Give him “wins” that are meaningless but visible
Trump thrives on optics. So:
Let him “win” obvious but hollow points—tariff lifts, symbolic concessions, “historic agreements”
Structure these “wins” so they make him look powerful to his base, but don’t cost long-term position
💡 Think of it like Go: sacrifice a few visible stones to control the board’s future.
🪨 2. Resist silently where it matters
Use strategic opacity. Let him think he’s pushed you, but in truth:
Delay implementation
Redirect resources (e.g. Belt & Road pivots)
Strengthen your fallback options (e.g. de-dollarization, new trade routes)
This is the “build dams” part of your analogy. Trump won’t notice a silent pivot—until it’s irreversible.
🫧 3. Redirect the conflict
Trump
is a narrative predator. Don’t give him
center-stage fights.
Instead:
Engage through intermediaries (EU, ASEAN, African Union)
Frame issues as global, not bilateral (“This is a WTO issue”)
He loses power outside his chosen theater.
🥋 4. Use aikido: turn his force into imbalance
Trump often overreaches. Let him.
Let aggressive tariffs damage his farmers or manufacturers
Amplify dissent from his own allies (e.g. business lobbies, governors)
He creates domestic friction by overstepping—don’t block it; guide it.
⏳ 5. Always play the long game
Trump thinks in quarters and headlines.
China (and any strong strategic actor) must think in decades
If you’re building a century-long trade corridor, then a 4-year presidency—even 8—is weather, not climate
In that view: You don’t stop the storm. You outlive it.
Final Word:
🧠 “Let him win on the front page. You win in the footnotes of history.”
This isn’t passive—it’s disciplined positioning. Trump doesn’t need real wins; he needs to look dominant. The paradox is: if you fight him directly, you give him that dominance. If you redirect, absorb, and reframe, you disarm the method entirely.
