What is the risk of a Nuclear War?

   As explained in the article below, almost ALL governments in the West are suddenly advising people to stock up. What do they know that we don't? 

   According to Tucker Carlson today, the Trump administration is seriously considering the use of a nuclear weapon against Pickaxe Mountain in Iran as a demonstration of force after the mid-term elections in the US even though they perfectly know that Iran does not have such weapon.  

   In the past the US army has resisted such pressure. Can they do it again? Could it be that the assessment in most countries is that we are on the edge and that such possibility exists?

   Crossing such a threshold would immediately create a before and after with a huge impact on the global supply chain and availability of oil in particular. 

   The market would crash seriously and the world economy would plunge very quickly in a deep depression.   

   What is the chance? The US is on the verge of losing its uni-polar dominance. Historically, such periods have always been times of great upheaval. This would massively accelerate the trend away from the US dollar and quickly reduce its use in international trade which anyway would shrink tremendously almost overnight. 

   Let's hope for the best and prepare for the worst. Here, in Japan, it is normal to be a "prepper" to some extent considering the risk of a major earthquake. Not so in Europe and in other developed countries which have not been through major events since the end of the second world war. 

   People who have been through the last general conflict are now in their 90s and therefore out of public office. This usually is when societies repeat past mistakes, the now famous Forth Turning generational theory of Strauss and Howe which we have discussed extensively recently. 

Prepare Now! Because That's What the Pentagon Is Doing YouTube Video by Chris Martenson on Peak Prosperity

Why Are So Many Countries Suddenly Warning Their Citizens To Prepare For An Emergency And Stockpile Essential Survival Supplies?

by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse,

What in the world is going on? Why are governments all over the planet suddenly encouraging their citizens to become preppers? Do they know something that they aren't telling us? If it was just one nation that was suddenly instructing people to stockpile food, water and other essential supplies, that wouldn't be a big deal. But it isn't just one nation. As you will see below, quite a long list of countries have simultaneously decided that now is the time for everyone to get prepared. So what has prompted this sudden sense of urgency?

For some reason, governments in Europe seem to have more of a sense of urgency than anyone else...

Governments in the UK, Sweden, Germany, Ireland, the Netherlands and France have encouraged households to keep food, water, medicines and other essentials available for emergencies.

I can't recall a time when so many European governments have been so concerned about making sure that their citizens are prepared for an emergency.

In the UK, the "Be Ready campaign" has been launched.

Every citizen is being encouraged to stockpile at least enough food and bottled water to last for 72 hours...

Every Briton is being urged to stock up to nine litres of bottled water and three days' worth of food in new government guidance designed to ensure that households can survive a weather, cyber or other serious emergency.

The Be Ready campaign is aimed at persuading people to stock up with supplies to last 72 hours, amid growing official concern about the impact of the climate crisis, technological dependency and hostile state threats.

Dan Jarvis, the security minister, said that "those who can follow this advice should follow this advice". It amounted to "simple steps to be ready for everyday emergencies" as part of a wider, community-oriented effort "to improve our resilience as a nation", he said.

So why has it suddenly become so important to do this?

The UK's defense secretary is saying that it is because we "live in a more dangerous and turbulent world"...

UK families are suddenly being told to stock up on emergency supplies - and to prepare for war.

Wes Streeting, the UK's defense secretary, went on a media blitz to push a new "Be Ready" campaign to boost Brits' preparedness for crises - which he said could range from floods and wildfires to terrorism and cyber attacks and ultimately even war.

"There's no sugarcoating the fact that we do live in a more dangerous and turbulent world," Streeting told BBC's "Newsnight."

"It's about saying to households across the country to be ready by just having some everyday essentials indoors should there be disruption from these sorts of events."

Yes, our world has certainly become more "dangerous" and more "turbulent", but I also get the impression that there is something that he isn't telling us.

In Sweden, citizens are being told that they may have to survive on their own for at least a week "in case of crisis or war"...

In Sweden, the country's civil defense guidance is warning households to be able to manage on their own for at least one week 'in case of crisis or war.'

'The state of the world has worsened drastically in recent years. War is being waged in our vicinity. Extreme weather events are becoming increasingly common. Terror threats, cyberattacks, and disinformation campaigns are being used to undermine and influence us,' the bulletin stated.

It is noteworthy that Swedish authorities are using the word "war", because a lot of people out there are convinced that military conflict is what has prompted all of this talk about preparing.

On social media, many are speculating that European governments are getting ready to go to war with Russia...

But if European governments are bracing for a military showdown with Russia, why is the government of Japan urging their citizens to stockpile food, water and other necessary supplies?...

Statements from Japan's Disaster Management Minister indicate that the government is preparing to issue a national "emergency request"⁠ on November 2, 2026. The request aims to urge all households across the country to stockpile essential survival supplies. The announcement is planned for the same day as the official launch of Japan's National Disaster Management Agency.

The new national agency will lead coordination efforts across the country regarding disaster planning, immediate emergency response, long-term recovery, and reconstruction.

I can't remember the Japanese government ever doing anything like this.

Just like in the UK, Japanese citizens are being instructed to have enough on hand to last for at least three days...

The emergency request lays down a self-sufficiency window of at least three days. However, the Disaster Management Minister Gishi Hosono emphasized that a one-week supply is recommended wherever possible.

Here in the United States, Project FORTRESS has just been initiated.

The goal is for the U.S. military to be able to keep fighting for at least 90 days if all civilian infrastructure goes down...

The Pentagon is preparing U.S. military bases to keep operating for at least 90 days without outside support as it prepares for the possibility of a major war that could cripple power grids, disrupt supply chains and threaten critical infrastructure on American soil.

The new requirement is part of FORTRESS, a broader military initiative aimed at ensuring American forces can continue fighting even if the civilian systems they depend on are disrupted, according to documents reviewed by Fox News Digital.

"We don't want to rely on standard civilian municipal infrastructure to run our national defense. We just simply can't. It's an intolerable risk," Pentagon chief spokesperson Sean Parnell told Fox News Digital.

What kind of scenario would "cripple power grids, disrupt supply chains and threaten critical infrastructure"?

I can only think of a few, and most of them involve military conflict.

So what do they think might happen?

Shortly after we learned about Project FORTRESS, former Deputy Director of the FBI Dan Bongino issued a very urgent warning...

The former Deputy Director of the FBI has issued an urgent warning to Americans as countries worldwide start stockpiling supplies for a potential crisis.

Dan Bongino, who left the bureau in January, said the public needs to do what the UK and European governments are telling citizens: Have a preparedness plan and at least three days of food and power ready.

'Have yourself an emergency radio, have yourself some batteries, get yourself some emergency food, get yourself a rain collection and water filtration, some filtration tablets,' he said on Monday.

'Get your stuff today. Please. Do it for your family,' Bongino added.

Even though he no longer works for the government, Bongino still has lots of contacts inside the government.

Has he been told something that would prompt him to literally beg his listeners to go out and buy emergency supplies?

Someone should really ask him that question.

And why is he urging us to have a "rain collection" system?

You wouldn't need to collect rain unless you were facing some sort of a long-term catastrophic emergency.

Without a doubt, everything that he is saying is wise advice.

But why has he suddenly developed such a sense of urgency?

I have a feeling that something big is coming.

Perhaps after the midterm elections in the United States we shall find out what it is.

US Military DIGGING Graves! Iran War Plan EXPOSED! w/Scott Ritter (Video - 51mn)

   Almost forgot Scott Ritter and his energetic commenting. But some of his points are, well, to the point. 

   We are barreling into an energy crisis of epic proportion. Out of a daily oil consumption of a little more than 100 million barrels per day, the Hormuz Strait represented about 20% or 20 million barrels. Other producers around the world have increased production, compensating 10 million barrels. We have therefore been short 10 million barrels for over 6 months now. Depleting reserves has reduced the shortfall by a little less than half, so 5 million barrels and finally, the higher price of oil has reduced demand by the remaining 5 million barrels so that we now have an unstable equilibrium at a much lower level than last year. 

   This cannot go on much longer. Eventually demand and supply will have to find a new balance. Either the war ends and production rises again although this won't be instantaneous and may take one to two years or prices will rise to cancel the 5 million barrels current shortfall and we enter a deep recession. 

   Trump has said clearly that he won't back down and the Iranians as we discussed at length in earlier posts can lose all the battles, they won't lose the war as it is technically impossible for the US to assert military superiority in the Gulf in the long term. What the US army could not do in Vietnam with 500,000 soldiers 50 years ago, they won't do either against a much more sophisticated enemy in a much larger country.   

   This alone guaranties that we're heading into very choppy waters. Add to this the AI bubble which is about to burst in the US, the Chinese real estate debacle which is depressing demand in the country and the absurd European energy policies which are akin to slow suicide and it is not a stretch to predict that the coming months will be extremely tumultuous. What we are witnessing in Europe right now is little more than a foretaste of things to come.  

   Here's a scenario: Trump will lose the mid-term elections (80% probability). He will attack Iran. The price of oil will skyrocket to over 130 and maybe 150 dollars per barrel. Iran will strike back reducing production further. The political climate in Europe first, then in the rest of the world will get extremely nasty. Either oil demand will crash or rationing will be implemented. Eventually conflicts both internal and external will explode around the world as desperate governments try their luck in foreign adventures. 2027 is only 2 months away but the outlook is not rosy to say the least, and it still can easily get worse...    

US Military DIGGING Graves! Iran War Plan EXPOSED! w/Scott Ritter

⚡ALERT: A.I. INSIDER- "Don't TALK TO IT" with Canadian Prepper (Video - 1h40mn)

   A long but fascinating discussion with many points I disagree with but still want to know more about and definitively worth thinking about. Canadian Prepper will naturally err towards doom and gloom but even without falling into the catastrophe trap, entertaining these issues, causes and consequences, risks and remedies is I believe a worthwhile exercise. 

   Over the years I have become more and more ambivalent towards AI. Still very enthusiastic but at the same time more circumspect. The risks are real, not the extinction part which is still farfetched but the mayhem part where AI generates problems faster than we can fix them which we are already witnessing with more complex and frequent hacks.      

   The most fundamental problem which the whole alignment movement is missing is the emergent aspect of AI. You CANNOT understand AI with a reductionist mindset and approach. It is like trying to understand psychology with chemistry. When Connor Leahy says that we do not understand how intelligence and emotions are generated he is completely missing the point. You cannot "explain" intelligence emerging out of trillions of loops from the transformers. It is an emergent phenomenon and consequently the right approach is to observe and describe, not to analyze what happens at the GPU level where there is literally nothing to observe. 

   Likewise, many of the points discussed are little more than wishful thinking. The concerns are real but a "pause" in AI research or testing is ludicrous. It will simply not happen. Conversely, testing the newest models for defensive purpose before releasing them sounds like a good idea. So, in the end, I tend to agree concerning the general theme of the discussion: There are better ways and not so good ones to approach AI research. We need an open, non dogmatic approach to the subject. The question is to know if our society is capable of handling such a complex discussion in a fruitful manner. This is not at all obvious.   

⚡ALERT: A.I. INSIDER- "Don't TALK TO IT"