Europe's Climate Policy Forces Industry Into Retreat; Even Its Critics Are Folding

    The war with Iran clearly is the black swan event that everyone expected to happen without of course knowing exactly what it would be. Now we do. 

   Amazingly, although the world is about to change utterly, conversely, current powers are showing us day after day that they will NOT change thereby accelerating their downfall. 

   The emergence of cheap drones against which the US has for now little more than expensive anti-missile systems reminds us the Huns with their horse riding techniques defeating the Roman army on foot, with speed and flexibility in the 5th Century CE.  

   Likewise the outdated strategy of the Israel Army against Hezbollah with columns of tanks falling into traps and being destroyed by cheap and extremely efficient manpads looks 50 years out of time.   

   But the most outrageous example is certainly that of Europe as explained below by Thomas Kolbe which while staring at the abyss energy-wise is doubling down on its industrial and civilizational destroying policies. 

   While the world, i.e. more specifically the Global Supply Chain on which its prosperity was built over the last 70 years is falling apart, Europe finds nothing better to do than waging war against... CO2. Eventually, the continent will find itself with no army, no industry and a crumbling social order with absolutely nothing to show for its efforts. Paris, London and most other European cities will become later-day Venices, beautiful but completely emptied of their economic vitality and of course prosperity. The worst is that the wound will be completely self-inflicted. 

   What a lesson of history! We can now understand far more vividly how and why Rome was reduced to ruins, and Venice to its open-air museum status. They in fact never ceased being themselves. Rome, the center of a long gone empire and Venice of an extinct trade network while the world around them was being transformed.    

Europe's Climate Policy Forces Industry Into Retreat; Even Its Critics Are Folding

by Thomas Kolbe

In the media business, five months is an eternity. And it does indeed seem like an eternity has passed since Christian Kullmann, CEO of the German chemical giant Evonik, sharply criticized European climate policy at the end of October.

At the time, Kullmann gave an interview to Süddeutsche Zeitung, in which he called—if not for the outright abolition—then at least for a significant weakening of the EU-wide CO₂ emissions trading system, given the dramatic state of the economy.

Kullmann rightly pointed out that there is probably no stricter CO₂ regime anywhere in the world than in the EU. And since the climate, as we know, has no borders, he argued it makes little sense to disadvantage domestic cutting-edge technology in this way. He explicitly referred to the costly CO₂ trading system, which drained a staggering €21.4 billion from the German economy last year alone—under the banner of climate policy through this relatively new mechanism.

Five months after these remarkable statements—briefly breaking the long-standing silence of German industrial leaders—the question must be asked whether there is anywhere else in the world a comparable project to the EU’s CO₂ regime. With the United States abandoning its policy of artificial energy scarcity, its war on conventional energy production, and heavy-handed regulation of its own industrial base, the EU now stands alone in its ideological campaign against economic rationality. No one else seems willing to join the chorus of Europe’s climate apocalypticism.

This European isolationism may elsewhere be perceived as a form of late-stage counter-colonization—a return flow of capital from remorseful Europeans willing to accept self-imposed sacrifice to help other regions get back on their feet. Around the world, this selflessly naive “degrowth suicide” is welcomed, as it delivers not only so-called climate support from European funds but, more importantly, accelerated industrial investment from European companies—served on a silver platter by eco-socialist policymakers. A civilizational ingredient that, it seems, Europe itself now believes it can do without.

In China, one has learned to remain quiet when a geopolitical rival makes mistake after mistake—as is currently the case with European climate policy. Energy-intensive firms like Evonik are penalized by CO₂ pricing with an artificial competitive disadvantage. Once embedded in political and administrative structures, this amounts to a genuine stimulus program for foreign industrial locations.

At the same time, China—like the increasingly deregulated United States under President Donald Trump—is developing a powerful vacuum effect in global capital markets. The world is benefiting from German engineering and European capital.

This dynamic is particularly evident in the chemical industry. As a highly energy-intensive sector, it has suffered one of the hardest blows from European climate policy, alongside the automotive industry. Kullmann’s warning about the erosion of economic foundations was more than justified—but it came far too late and remained, for a time, a lone voice in the wilderness.

Since 2018, Germany’s chemical industry has lost roughly a quarter of its production capacity. The sector is operating at an average capacity utilization of just 70%, a level that reflects a sectoral depression not seen in Germany since the end of World War II.

Yet the worse the economic situation becomes, the more firmly German policymakers cling to their belief in the green transformation. Corporate silence is secured by a massive subsidy machine, just as the sympathetic media sector provides the shrill soundtrack to the broader economic decline.

Tactically astute from a media standpoint, Brussels—under pressure from European industry—has agreed to ease some pressure from the CO₂ cost burden. The European Commission is expected to temporarily freeze the volume of circulating certificates within the market stability reserve in order to stabilize prices.

For Evonik CEO Kullmann, the outcome presented by Brussels appears acceptable. His once sharp criticism of the CO₂ mechanism has mysteriously vanished into the media ether. The change of heart clearly follows the promise of further subsidies.

A destructive mechanism has emerged between large corporations and an eco-socialist political leadership. At the media level, corporate executives and political actors stage a kind of ping-pong game that simulates critical debate and conflicting interests at the highest levels of decision-making.

Evidently, there is no willingness to even slow down the ongoing transfer of wealth—from the productive sectors of society to politically favored extractive sectors such as the green economy—even amid prolonged economic stagnation. The economic and social consequences of this policy are, for now, being conveniently ignored in both Brussels and Berlin.

SCOOP: The Uranium extraction mission in Iran Failed!

   

   Wrong place, Wrong forces, Wrong scale!

   The mission of the special forces sent to Iran over the weekend was NOT to extract pilots. Their job was to locate and extract Uranium and they failed. 

   This explains why Trump was so angry on Sunday while announcing the "successful" recovery of "one" pilot.  

   It also explains why generals who opposed the plan as suicidal were suddenly "retired" last week.

   So what really happened?

   A significant "camp" was improvised 37 km South of Isphahan, the city where the Isphahan Nuclear technology Center is located. (Far from the South-Western Coast where the F15 pilots allegedly ejected and were hiding on top of "high" mountains.) 

   From this camp, a significant special force was dispatched to the Nuclear Center and failed to recover the material. 

   In the firefight that ensued, the Americans were obliged to retreat, leaving behind large C130 transport aircrafts (mobilized to carry heavy loads, not two pilots) and four specialized helicopters which were destroyed either during or after the operation. 

   This was a heil mary operation. A last ditch effort to recover the Iranian enriched Uranium and for the trump Administration to claim "victory" while avoiding further heavy involvement

   This was also the main reason why the large "amphibious" forces were dispatched all the way from Japan as decoy and support.

   The mission failed. Now Trump is back to square one. The only path forward left is either bombing Iran until they give up, which they won't (Nobody has ever done so in history!) or "boots on the ground" to re-open the Hormuz Straight which as we discussed earlier is practically and geographically impossible. 

   We have reached a strategic impasse!  

PS: The news is now in the open. "Obviously" this was not a pilot extraction operation but a full fledged attack on Iran nuclear stockpile which failed.  

'Open The F**kin' Strait'

   Does anybody in the US realize how unhinged Trump sounds to the rest of the world?

   Conversely, Iran is taking an existential stand against the US. Clearly, a couple of bridges and power plants out are going to be painful, but they must have figured out from the beginning that when push comes to shove, the pressure would rise significantly if you endanger the petro-dollar system. We are talking about oil at or above 200 USD per barrel in a couple of months, the deepest recession since the 1930s. It's a trap. Economic and geographic, and it looks more and more that Trump will rush into it. 

   Unfortunately for the US, 2026 is not 1966. The US is broke and so is practically most of the West, which means that there will be real choices to make between pensions and weapons in the coming months. Conversely the balance of power between America and China has changed drastically. If the US decides to engage itself deeper in the Iranian quagmire, then the ability of the country to keep a major presence on other continents will wither dramatically.      

   Most empires crumble when they over-extend themselves. This is well known and confirmed by countless examples. So nothing new under the sun, then? Well, kind of, although the process itself could obviously be rather violent. 

   The true question now is to know if we can avoid a nuclear conflagration. A year or two ago, the risk was already there but the question was still mostly academic. Now, we are talking "existential" for Iran and soon enough for the US empire too. The pressure is building up very quickly. If Iran takes possession of the Hormuz Strait, which de facto is already the case, they become instantly an "oil" super-power and the US conversely is relegated to one among many. Rarely have the stakes been so high. Las Vegas against Sun Tsu. "Rien ne va plus!..."  

   

'Open The F**kin' Strait': Trump Threatens To 'Blow Everything Up' If No Iran Deal By Tuesday

Summary: 

• Trump offers Iranian negotiators amnesty, threatens to 'blow everything up' if no deal

• IEA Head warns Asia (implying Beijing) is panic hoarding fuel

• Trump warns Iran 'Open the Fuckin' Strait' or "you'll be living in hell'

Trump Talks With Fox Reporter About US-Iran Negotiations 

Shortly after President Trump wrote on Truth Social, "Open the Fuckin' Strait, you crazy bastards, or you'll be living in Hell - JUST WATCH! Praise be to Allah," the president spoke with Fox News reporter Trey Yingst for 15 minutes early Sunday.

Trump provided Yingst with new details on the behind-the-scenes negotiations with the Iranians and what would happen if Iran does not reach a good-faith deal.

Yingst said Trump told him, "If they don't make a deal, and fast, I'm considering blowing everything up and taking over the oil." The reporter went on to say that the president added that if there is no deal, bridges and power plants will go down all over the country.

Yingst asked the president about the possibility of an agreement with the Iranians. The president said those negotiating on behalf of Tehran have been granted amnesty for now so they can continue the talks.

The reporter noted that Trump thinks a deal can be reached by Monday. Trump said, "I think there's a good chance tomorrow. They're negotiating now."

International Energy Agency Head Warns Of Panic Hoarding Oil In Asia

International Energy Agency chief Fatih Birol told the Financial Times this weekend that governments must avoid panic hoarding and refrain from imposing fuel export bans as the Gulf energy shock ripples outward to Asia, Africa, Europe, and eventually reaches the US West Coast.

"I urge all countries not to impose bans or restrictions on exports," Fatih Birol emphasized in the interview. "It is the worst time when you look at the global oil markets. Their trade partners, their allies and their neighbors will suffer as a result."

The FT noted that Birol was "careful not to name China directly," but made very clear his warning was likely aimed at Beijing, which has already moved to restrict exports of critical refined products, including gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel.

Birol said that "major countries in Asia who hold major refineries" should reconsider their current bans, adding, "If those countries continue to restrict or totally ban exports, the impact on the Asian markets will be dramatic."

Birol's hoarding warning in Asia comes shortly after the IEA's coordinated release of 400 million barrels from emergency reserves. Such hoarding by major countries would directly undercut efforts to stabilize global energy markets. He also warned that if the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz persists, losses of crude and refined products in April could reach roughly double the levels seen in March.

Early in the US-Iran conflict, energy economist Anas Alhajji joined UBS analysts on a call in which he warned of panic hoarding risks in the oil market. He said that he questioned back in January why the Trump administration was hoarding Venezuela's oil after the Maduro raid, instead of bringing it to market.

Alhajji noted then, "I'm not talking about conspiracy theories. We were criticizing the Trump administration, companies, and trading houses that bought Venezuelan oil, and asking why they weren't able to sell it to end users and why they were hoarding it. Now we know." He was implying that this hoarding was in preparation for Operation Epic Fury.

Asia has been hit hardest so far. JPMorgan's top commodities expert warned about the falling dominoes of how the energy shock transmits from Asia, then spreads to Africa and Europe, before reaching the US, especially California, shortly thereafter.

Source

"Unfortunately, we see that some countries are adding to their existing stocks during our coordinated oil stock release," Birol said. "They are stocking up. This is not helpful. In my view, this is a time for all countries to prove they are responsible members of the international community."

Jeff Currie of Carlyle recently outlined the hoarding risks in a note titled "A Crude Awakening": "The physical shortfall is the trigger; the behavioral response is the multiplier."

Trump Tells Tehran: "Open the Fuckin' Strait" 

Earlier on Easter morning, President Trump unleashed a fierce message on Truth Social: "Tuesday will be Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran. There will be nothing like it!!! Open the Fuckin' Strait, you crazy bastards, or you'll be living in Hell."

Is the pressure building on Trump from the rest of the world (and domestically) to end this 'operation'? And/or are we getting closer to quagmire-inducing boots on the ground?

 

So much winning

   If it wasn't so serious, the below assessment of the war so far would be funny thanks to the cynical tone of the article. Reading through the lines, the depth of the quagmire is straightforward and rather easy to fathom: Bottomless! 

   A detailed addition to the previous article which explored the geo-strategic aspects of the conflict. A catastrophe of epic proportion for the US!   

Post by Gold & Geopolitics

Please make it stop, Mr. President

In 2002, the Pentagon spent $250 million on the largest wargame in US military history called ‘Millennium Challenge’. 13,500 participants, 2 years of planning, the works. The idea was pretty straightforward: simulate an invasion of a Middle Eastern country in the Persian Gulf. Suspiciously resembling Iran. The purpose was to demonstrate that America’s technological dominance could steamroll anything in its path.

wikipedia

They picked a retired 3-star Marine named Paul Van Riper to play the enemy.

Van Riper, who spent 41 years in uniform from Vietnam to Desert Storm, took one look at the scenario and did what any self-respecting adversary would do. He ignored it completely. Instead of radios, he used motorcycle couriers. Attack orders were hidden in the daily call to prayer. Swarms of explosive-laden speedboats were sent through the Strait of Hormuz.

And in less than 10 minutes, he sank 16 US warships. An aircraft carrier, 10 cruisers, and 5 amphibious ships. Over 20,000 simulated American casualties. The equivalent of Pearl Harbor, executed with small boats and cruise missiles by a retired Marine with a phone and a bad attitude.

So the Pentagon did what any self-respecting institution does when reality disagreed with the plan.

The ships were un-sank. Van Riper’s forces had to turn on their anti-aircraft radar so it could be easily targeted and destroyed. They even told him he wasn’t allowed to shoot down the incoming 82nd Airborne. The whole rest of the exercise was scripted to guarantee an American victory.

Van Riper walked out in disgust. His parting words: “Nothing was learned from this. A culture not willing to think hard and test itself does not augur well for the future”.

That was 24 years ago. The conditions Van Riper exploited haven’t changed. They’ve only gotten worse.

And now we’re one month into this shooting war with Iran. “Operation Epic Fury”.

Let’s have a look at what we’ve achieved, shall we?

The Strait of Hormuz has been successfully transitioned from a free international waterway into a revenue-generating toll infrastructure, administered by the IRGC with a published fee schedule, a vetting corridor near Larak Island, and legislation pending to make it permanent. Ships currently pay $2 to $3.5 million per transit, settling in yuan through CIPS, which bypasses SWIFT entirely and represents a significant upgrade in settlement efficiency.

India has adopted the yuan. Japan has adopted the renminbi. Pakistan negotiated preferential rates at 2 tankers per day. Thailand secured bilateral access. Only COSCO, China’s state shipping line, moves freely, which streamlines the user experience considerably if you happen to be Chinese. The dollar’s share of global reserves has reached its lowest level in a century, which suggests the new framework is being broadly embraced.

The Bretton Whoops

This is the petrodollar in transition. The mechanism that has underwritten American empire since 1974 – Gulf oil priced in dollars, revenues recycled through US Treasuries, quietly funding a $39 trillion debt – is being replaced in real time by a yuan-denominated corridor that didn’t exist 5 weeks ago. And unlike a military defeat, which can be spun and repackaged for a news cycle to consumers with the attention span of a goldfish, a reserve currency transition is a one-way door.

The Navy has achieved a significant risk management milestone by declining to escort tankers through the Strait, citing conditions that were “too high” – a prudent assessment that prioritises fleet preservation over the stated objective of the war. 3,000 ships and 20,000 seafarers remain in the Gulf, representing the largest involuntary maritime community since the Age of Sail. Maersk has 10 container ships holding position, crews resourcefully extending provisions without fresh food. 470,000 TEUs of container capacity – 10% of the global fleet – is effectively in long-term storage, reducing wear on hulls. The insurance industry has contributed independently: 7 P&I clubs filing cancellation notices achieved what the entire US Fifth Fleet could not, surging war-risk premiums from 0.2% to 10% of hull value. Even after a ceasefire, insurers require 30 to 60 days of incident-free stability before reinstating cover. The Houthis’ Red Sea precedent: 26 months and still no policy written.

Flexibility in goal-setting is a hallmark of mature organisations, and the administration demonstrated this by quietly reclassifying the reopening of Hormuz from “strategic imperative” to “optional”. The waterway that carries a fifth of the world’s oil, that the war was partly launched to secure, is no longer required for the war’s conclusion. This frees up considerable strategic bandwidth to focus on objectives that are also not being achieved, but in less publicly measurable ways.

The war has successfully disrupted seven global commodity flows simultaneously, achieving a level of supply chain diversification that would be difficult to replicate intentionally.

The agricultural sector has been comprehensively de-risked from overreliance on Gulf-sourced inputs. Hormuz transit collapsed 97%, slashing maritime CO2 emissions in the Strait to levels not seen since the Age of Sail. An environmental triumph, really. It also took with it 80% of global sulfur production along with nitrogen capacity that was rendered uneconomic by gas prices. Russia contributed by halting ammonium nitrate exports. China pitched in by banning phosphate exports through August.

All those key macronutrients were successfully eliminated from global supply chains simultaneously, and during planting season no less. Urea at the Port of New Orleans hit $690 a tonne, a 45% gain in three weeks that commodity traders would kill for under normal circumstances. The nitrogen shortage has automatically opted one in four US farmers out of spring production.

318 million people were already at crisis-level hunger before February 28. That figure has been earmarked for aggressive growth, and with the planting window about to shut, the revised projections are locked in.

The plastics and pharmaceutical supply chains have undergone similar rationalisation. Three supply chains for polyethylene were streamlined in one stroke: Indonesia, South Korea, and Singapore. In a single week!

India, producer of 40% of US generic drugs, sources 87.7% of its methanol through the same 21 miles we just helped close, putting paracetamol, ibuprofen, and metformin for 537 million diabetics on an accelerated depreciation schedule.

The helium and semiconductor precursor chains have been successfully consolidated toward China, streamlining the global dependency structure. Qatar’s Ras Laffan is currently enjoying an operational pause of just three to five years, giving the industry a real chance to reset and innovate. A permanent inventory reduction of 200+ cryogenic containers has been achieved with helium proactively self-releasing to space – eliminating storage overhead entirely.

Airgas has proactively rightsized its supply commitments by 50% as they declared force majeure.

The few non-Chinese sources of gallium – a semiconductor precursor – have been dismantled in favour of a single consolidated Chinese pipeline.

Crude oil, LNG, phosphate, helium, ammonia, sulfur, urea. Pay for one war, get seven shortages for free!

The water infrastructure programme has delivered beyond expectations. Trump’s threat to “obliterate” Iran’s desalination plants – which supply less than 1% of Iranian water – successfully deterred Iran from retaliating against American assets entirely, redirecting its response to Kuwait’s West Doha facility instead. 38.5% of Kuwaiti national capacity offline.

The leverage dynamics are exceptional and speak to the programme’s broader vision. By committing 1% of its own exposure to the escalation, Iran has put 90% of its neighbours’ water supply at risk. We did that!

The Habshan-Fujairah pipeline – the last meaningful bypass for UAE crude exports – was struck twice in three days, Iran helpfully reconfirming our threat assessment on each occasion within 72 hours.

Financial market engagement has been robust. Someone placed a $1.5 billion bet in S&P futures 5 minutes before Trump’s “ceasefire” post, capturing a $2 trillion market surge in 6 minutes – outstanding timing that demonstrates growing confidence in the administration’s communication calendar. Iran denied everything within 30 minutes and a trillion evaporated, but early movers locked in gains, proving that speed of access matters more than factual accuracy.

On the last day of Q1, a 20-day-old peace headline was successfully repackaged during window dressing, generating a $1.7 trillion S&P rally – the best Q1-closing day since September 2008, confirming that news doesn’t need to be new to be effective.

Iran’s Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf has begun posting trading advice between missile salvos, telling followers to treat Trump’s announcements as reverse indicators. When a wartime adversary monetises your press releases more efficiently than your own allies, the information architecture is performing above expectations.

The US 10-year has reached 4.48%, Japan’s has achieved its highest level since 2000, and France’s has breached GFC levels, opening up fixed-income opportunities not seen in a generation.

$12 trillion in global market capitalisation has been successfully redistributed – more than the combined GDP of Germany, Japan, and the UK. Wealth destruction at that scale usually requires a full financial crisis. We achieved it with tweets.

Europe’s energy transition has been a resounding success. Germany led the way by decommissioning its nuclear fleet – an ageing, expensive liability propped up by politicians who subsequently secured well-paid positions at the energy companies they’d been subsidising, suggesting industry was keen to reward their regulatory foresight. The continent then cut Russian gas, because energy independence from authoritarian suppliers is a strategic imperative, and someone helpfully blew up Nord Stream to make sure nobody lost their nerve. The replacement strategy centred on Qatari LNG: long-term contracts, shiny new regasification terminals, a clean pivot executed with characteristic bureaucratic thoroughness. The LNG will resume flowing in just 3 to 5 years, giving European policymakers a comfortable planning horizon.

But the transition is working. Europe has successfully achieved independence from nuclear, Russian gas, AND Qatari LNG simultaneously, leaving it fully sovereign over its own energy policy and completely dependent on American LNG at 7 times the Russian price, under a deal Trump is threatening to revoke by Thursday. German diesel has reached a record €2.29 per litre in the meantime, providing the kind of demand destruction that Brussels has been trying to legislate for a decade.

Germany is exploring the opportunity to reclaim valuable real estate by closing US bases and repatriating 50,000 troops. Spain streamlined airspace management by closing it to US military traffic entirely. Italy denied access at Sigonella. France enhanced aviation security by refusing access to its airspace. Four NATO allies have completed the transition from collective defence to collective spectatorship.

Rubio asked a valid question to a shrinking audience: “Then why are we in NATO?”

China, meanwhile, controls 90% of rare earth refining, plus massive chunks of the pharmaceutical, polyethylene, battery, and semiconductor supply chains – a consolidated position that the war has helpfully strengthened by eliminating most of the non-Chinese alternatives.

The Gazillion-Dollar Oops

The volatility is also helpfully stress-testing the financial plumbing. Private credit funds that loaded up during the cheap-money years are proactively reducing investor exposure as the AI bubble meets the liquidity crunch.

The radar modernisation programme got underway on day 1 of the war. Iran opened the campaign by retiring the $1.1 billion early warning radar in Qatar, then followed up with two radars in Jordan and the UAE. $2.7 billion in ground-based radar infrastructure comprehensively decommissioned in 48 hours, clearing the way for next-generation replacements that have not been ordered, budgeted, or designed, but the runway is clear.

That targeting programme continued for a month and this week delivered its headline results: an E-3 Sentry AWACS was destroyed at Prince Sultan Air Base, and two EC-130H Compass Call electronic warfare aircraft rendered permanently available for parts.

The AWACS – a $300-to-$500 million flying command post – had never been lost in combat in the type’s entire history. We achieved a first, which is almost worth celebrating. The EC-130H fleet provided the jamming capability meant to suppress Iranian air defences ahead of any ground assault. Fleet strength went from 3 to reportedly 1, a 67% reduction that concentrates institutional knowledge in the remaining airframe. Iran identified the tool designed to defeat it and removed it from service before it could be used. The aircraft had been parked in the open because nobody built hardened shelters, reportedly because shelters threatened the F-35’s share of the budget. Priorities were successfully maintained, though.

Munitions consumption has been outstanding. In the first 5 days alone we expended more Patriot missiles than the entire US manufactures in a calendar year, demonstrating a commitment to throughput that the production side has yet to match. The team then diversified the interceptor portfolio to include legacy PAC-2 systems manufactured during the Clinton administration, broadening our vintage range and proving that age is just a number.

The THAAD battery was reallocated from South Korea, freeing up resources in one theatre to address urgent needs in another – a logistics win, even if Seoul disagreed and North Korea expressed its appreciation with a cruise missile test the following day.

Iran also launched a flare decoy operation over Dubai that depleted roughly half the city’s interceptor stock chasing false heat signatures, demonstrating that the adversary is also innovating on cost efficiency – their expenditure on the operation was approximately zero. The manufacturer has since promised to quadruple production. THAAD output for 2026 remains at zero, but quadruple zero is still zero, so technically the target is already met.

RUSI forecasts Israel’s Arrow interceptors will be “completely expended” by April. It is April.

The Tomahawk inventory has been aggressively drawn down, with one third of the decade-accumulated stockpile deployed in just 27 days – a velocity of consumption that signals strong operational commitment. The JASSM cruise missiles have been fully utilised, successfully exhausting the entire stand-off weapons inventory and freeing up the mission profile for a more direct approach. B-52 bombers – an airframe older than the state of Israel – are now dropping unguided JDAMs directly over Iran, leveraging proven legacy platforms in a hands-on role. F-22 stealth fighters have been sent home as “no longer required”, reducing overhead. A-10 Warthogs – a close air support aircraft designed in the 1970s to stop Soviet tanks and scheduled for retirement since before some of its pilots were born – are being routed through England toward the Gulf, extending the airframe’s service life well beyond what anyone in procurement expected or wanted. We started the war with stealth fighters and precision cruise missiles and we are finishing it with gravity bombs dropped from planes your grandfather would recognise.

The cost-exchange ratio deserves recognition. Iran’s total offensive expenditure for the entire war: approximately $200 million. The Pentagon has requested $200 billion in supplemental funding. That’s a 1,000-to-1 ratio, which is the kind of return on capital most venture funds would kill for – just not usually on this end of it.

A $50,000 Shahed drone requires a $3.87 million Patriot to intercept, offering Iran an unmatched capital efficiency per engagement that our defence contractors can only admire.

Iran has no navy and no air force worth mentioning. It turns out you don’t need either. The doctrine IS the cost asymmetry: thousands of cheap drones, thousands of missiles, and the patience to fire them one at a time until the interceptor maths break. The per-sortie loss rate is running at a 300% improvement over Gulf War I benchmarks.

Further equipment milestones: 3 F-15E Strike Eagles retired by a Kuwaiti F/A-18 in a friendly fire incident (our ally; all 6 crew ejected safely, which counts as a partial win), a KC-135 Stratotanker lost in Iraq with all 6 crew, 5 more tankers decommissioned at Prince Sultan representing 16% of the in-theatre fleet (the tanker fleet being the life support of the air campaign), an F-35 damaged over Iran by an Iranian-made Mobin system (the first confirmed combat damage to an F-35 from an adversary – another first!), and 12+ MQ-9 Reaper drones contributed to the Iranian landscape on top of the 16 to 20 the Houthis had already collected before this war even started.

The USS Gerald R. Ford, nuclear carrier and flagship of the fleet, is enjoying an extended maintenance period in Crete following a laundry-related fire that took 30 hours to extinguish. Estimated return to service: 14 months, giving the crew ample time to upgrade the washing machines. As a commitment to our success, a third carrier group – the USS Bush – has been deployed from Norfolk. This is the first time since Iraq 2003 that three strike groups have converged on one theatre.

13 US service members killed. Over 300 wounded. Those are official numbers. 92% of polled Americans have indicated they’ve seen enough winning.

The coalition has grown in all directions, though not necessarily the intended ones. Iran’s 31 autonomous IRGC commands have launched 88+ waves, demonstrating a decentralised operating model that functions seamlessly without senior leadership – or indeed any identifiable leadership at all. Iraqi resistance groups have scaled to 47 operations per day, including sustained engagement with the US Embassy in Baghdad, a 104-acre facility whose generous footprint has facilitated targeting. Hezbollah has set daily operational records from Lebanon, achieving 5 Merkava tank kills by ATGM in a single 24-hour shift.

The Houthis have also officially joined, bringing proven Red Sea expertise to a second theatre. This is the same group that shut down international shipping for over a year, collected 16+ American Reapers, sank actual vessels, rerouted the world’s largest container lines around Africa, and absorbed 35 consecutive days of US bombing without meaningful impact on operations. Their 3-phase strategy – total naval blockade on Israel, closure of Bab al-Mandab, strikes on US bases across Saudi Arabia and Oman – would consolidate 30% of global seaborne oil under a coordinated interdiction framework if both Straits close simultaneously. Syria hasn’t joined yet, but Israel is still occupying the Golan Heights and the new government in Damascus has not yet expressed its gratitude. The coalition of parties willing to shoot at the United States is growing faster than the coalition willing to help it.

Iran’s tit-for-tat doctrine operates with the reliability of a utility company. Israel strikes Natanz, Iran services Dimona. USrael bombs steel factories, Iran returns the favour at Israel’s Beersheba complex within hours. This week Iran expanded to the data layer, striking Batelco’s AWS infrastructure in Bahrain and publishing a target list of 18 US tech companies valued at $15 trillion combined. Full-spectrum coverage.

Every Gulf state hosting a US base has received Iranian attention. Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, Bahrain – Camp Buehring in Kuwait alone had hangars, barracks, a gym, warehouses, and a power station serviced by Iranian munitions. The one GCC country Iran overlooked: Oman. Oman has no American bases. $243 billion in annual Arab defence spending across the Gulf, and when Iran blocked the Strait, the collective military response was to place a phone call. Qatar’s Prime Minister: “Everyone knows who the main beneficiary of this war is”. Having a US base, it turns out, doesn’t enhance your security portfolio. It puts you on the mailing list.

The leadership decapitation programme achieved an impressive clearance rate. We killed Khamenei on day 1 – the CIA redirected 200 aircraft in real-time, eliminating 7 senior officials alongside him and 40 more commanders in the opening salvo. Then Shamkhani. Nasirzadeh. Pakpour. Intelligence minister Khatib. Larijani, described as the most powerful figure left in the regime. Ahmadinejad. The head of the Basij. Excellent throughput. The programme continued at pace until Pakistani intelligence intercepted an Israeli targeting operation on Iran’s FM and Parliament Speaker and delivered the observation that probably should have occurred to someone around assassination number six: “If you kill these two, there is no one left to talk to”.

The CIA’s own classified assessment concluded the regime would survive. “Possibly more radical and entrenched than before” – the moderates discredited by the bombs, the hardliners emboldened by surviving them. Trump was told this before he approved.

The programme has thus achieved the rare distinction of making the enemy simultaneously more radical and less reachable.

And from this position – bombed daily, leadership comprehensively downsized, navy decommissioned, air force grounded – Iran demands: full halt to aggression, reparations, closure of all US regional bases, and sovereignty over Hormuz. They told Washington to send Vance, not Witkoff. Vance got on the plane. A country with no navy and a cardboard cutout for a supreme leader is dictating which US officials are senior enough to receive its demands. That is the most extraordinary performance review of what this war has actually delivered.

Israel reports a 92% interception rate, a strong performance metric that the civilian population has been stress-testing in real time. 400+ ballistic missiles fired. Warning times have been optimised from 15 minutes on day 1 down to effectively nothing on many current strikes, allowing residents to experience the full excitement without the tedious waiting period. Dimona successfully attracted a missile to within 5 kilometres of the nuclear facility, demonstrating the site’s continued strategic relevance. The Haifa BAZAN refinery – over half of Israel’s domestic fuel supply – received two direct engagements in 24 hours, producing fires visible from the Mediterranean and achieving significant media coverage at no additional PR cost. Ben Gurion Airport has been closed for weeks, with outbound flights providing an exclusive departure experience of 130 persons per flight. The fleet administration has been greatly simplified due to the overheating of some private jets on the tarmac.

The “destruction of Iran’s capability” has been revised downward from 90% in week 1 to 82% in week 2 to 70% in week 3, shedding 10 percentage points per briefing cycle with the consistency of a subscription service. At current trajectory, Iran reaches full strength by May. We appear to be un-destroying things. JINSA’s own analyst cheered on March 5 that “Iran’s missile firepower has almost run out”. Three weeks later his own think tank published a report documenting the opposite. Iran is apparently getting un-bombed too.

Rubio then helpfully clarified the war’s “clear objectives” via the State Department’s official account. Four items: air force, navy, missiles, factories. Notably absent: uranium, nuclear weapons, regime change, and opening Hormuz – the four items the war was launched to achieve.

The timeline underwent a similar refinement: “two or three days” on February 28, “four weeks” on March 1, “four to six, maybe eight weeks” from Hegseth on March 4, Pentagon internally planning through September, and then silence.

Iran proved too hard, so now it’s “Cuba is next” – because when your fist breaks against a wall, the natural next step is to look for something smaller to punch.

The war has generated strong returns for stakeholders on all sides except the one funding it. Iran is producing 1.5 million barrels per day, up from 1.1 million pre-war, selling at $110 a barrel where it used to accept $47. That’s a win. Just not for us.

Oman crude hit $167 – an all-time record. Dubai crude above $170. WTI at $100. The $60-70 spread between a barrel trapped inside a war zone and one sitting in Cushing, Oklahoma represents a significant expansion of the global crude oil product range into two distinct asset classes.

The war has attracted significant third-party investment. Russia contributed the strike plan, 500 MANPADS launchers, and satellite intelligence. China contributed BeiDou navigation, base imagery, and fabrication tools. In return, both are collecting above-market premiums on every commodity the war has disrupted, while committing zero personnel and accepting zero risk. Iran has been capitalised just well enough to sustain the engagement without resolving it.

And this brings us to the most exciting deliverable on the roadmap. The air campaign has successfully exhausted 15,000 precision strikes, fully deployed the cruise missile inventory, and generated a $200 billion supplemental funding request – yet Iran continues to launch, export, administer the Strait, and issue demands. The enriched uranium remains 100 metres under granite that no ordnance in the US arsenal can reach, which creates a compelling case for boots-on-the-ground engagement. Polymarket agrees: 66-68% probability of US ground entry by April 30.

The addressable market is 87 million people across mountainous terrain purpose-built for extended engagement. 40 million fighting-age men, available year-round. 31 provinces with autonomous IRGC commands, underground missile cities at 500 metres, and pre-authorised standing orders that don’t require a government – convenient, since we already removed most of it.

Afghanistan offered a similar value proposition at half the scale – 20 years, $2.3 trillion, no lasting returns. Iran offers the same package at 2x the population, 3x the terrain, zero local partners, and a tunnel network that starts at 500 metres underground. What could go wrong?

One month. 88 waves. 40 destroyed energy assets across 9 countries. Seven supply chains severed. A yuan toll booth where the petrodollar used to be. A famine building in the planting data. A carrier in Crete. An AWACS burning in the Saudi desert. Cruise missiles spent. Bond markets screaming. Allies shutting bases. $12 trillion gone. And the only option left on the table is the one that turns all of this into a footnote.

We’re going to win so much.

You may even get tired of winning.

ONE WEEK TO ARMAGEDDON?

   The article below is more "food for thoughts" than information. Still, some of the points highlighted are credible and worth considering. 

   Behind this absurd war there are real geo-strategic considerations and consequences. Iran knew they could not directly "win" a war with the US so they changed the checker board and transformed the goals of the conflict. 

   Trump by making the war existential for Iran obliged them in turn to make it existential for the US by endangering the hegemony of the US dollar. This in turn guaranties that the war cannot end without the defeat of one of the protagonists. Worse, the bar is much lower for Iran than for the US. They only need not to fold to win whereas the US must salvage the current system which at this stage may be far more difficult.

    It would have been easier for the Trump administration if the US was not over leveraged and if they had not spent the last few years literally insulting their partners, in Europe, North American (both Canada and Mexico) and Asia. But they did, so much so that the cooperation with the UK is said to be beyond repair, Takaichi, the Prime Minister of Japan recently said she would not put foot again on US soil to be insulted as she was last month and Macron recently announcing that negotiations with Iran might finally be a better path forward for Europe. Amazing job of destruction of a coalition if there ever was one! 

   So what comes next? 

   Trump could announce "Mission Accomplished"  and end the war as some people expected earlier. But at this stage neither Iran, Israel or even the Gulf countries will allow this easy exit. So the war which started on false premises, without strategy and without a plan B must go on and that is where we are entering dangerous territory. 

   As the war last, weeks after weeks, the credibility of the US is taking a beating. Their armament too but this is almost secondary at this stage, as soon, far darker economic consequences will emerge as the world global supply chain starts crumbling. Oil first, then LNG, Jet Fuel, Naphtha, Helium, Tungsten, Aluminum, Rare Earths from China, essential parts for machinery, Microchips, then more and more as the complexity of the system we have built starts unraveling.  

   Some countries will start paying Iran in Yuan to insure safe passage of their boats across the Hormuz Strait, then some Gulf countries will start accepting Petro-Yuan, and before we know it, the world will be a very different place. 

   This ineluctable consequence cannot be let to happen from the US perspective but then how do you prevent it from happening? Doubling down short of an almost impossible immediate victory makes the problem even more intractable. Boots on the ground in Hormuz is a nightmare of geography as we discussed in our previous post. There are talks of a nuclear strike, but this would solve nothing beyond killing scores of Iranians, radicalizing the rest of the world against the US and Israel. And it is likely that both China and Russia have quietly conveyed to their US counterparts that they would not accept such a move. 

   So beyond muddling through and indirectly losing the war slowly what unlikely solution can the US come up with? Could a general depression unite the world against America and oblige them to stop the war with the radical menace of ditching the US dollar? This is not completely impossible but this would require the support of the International Financial Authorities which would need to face Armageddon first in order to contemplate such a radical measure which if it fails risk endangering their own "system".    

   Whatever the solution to this crisis, it is now certain to be far reaching and have radical consequences. Think about it: The end of the Petrodollar, the end of Trump or a nuclear war. And first a depression which might be as deep or deeper than the one in the 1930s. We are truly on the verge of major changes. Buckle up!    

Post by Died Suddenly

The investigators at Died Suddenly have received a very concerning piece of intel that we wanted to share with our followers regarding the war in Iran.

Over the course of the last 4 years, this same source has given us intel that we have shared that has never once been wrong.

Please feel free to pray about this and use discernment in what we are about to share:

America has only one week of missiles left to defend allies in Middle East.

Nukes, invasion, and war with Russia all on the table.

Joe Kent resigned for one simple reason: He knows the Iran war is going poorly, was started purely by Israel lying and manipulating Trump, and he refuses to lie about those facts publicly.

I have spoken to several national security sources and this is the summary of what they have told me.

1) America is one week from exhausting our supply of interceptor missiles, without which we have NO EFFECTIVE MEANS of stopping incoming missiles and drones to Israel, Jordan, Qatar, UAE, and Saudi Arabia.

Iran knows this and has intentionally kept back their biggest, most advanced, and deadly cruise missiles. Attempts by the U.S. to destroy those missile sites have failed and a good portion remain operational and ready to launch.

If America cannot protect our allies in the region, they will sue for peace without us. And without protection, Israel will suffer massive casualties.

The stockpile is dangerously low from the Trump administration using missiles to defend Israel since the Oct 7 attacks, and the war in Ukraine.

2) The current Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, survived the decapitation strike and follow on attempts, and has now successfully fled to Russia, where the U.S. is weighing committing another act of war, with Putin, by trying to kill him in Moscow.

AI videos or not, Iran will never surrender if they find out they successfully killed or gravely injured the “Great Satan’s” puppet master.

3) America has no good options to end this war, which needed to be finished quickly due to tyranny of variables stacked against the U.S. such as terrain, distance, lack of ground forces, and durability of the Iranian government.

Options now being considered are nuclear, and futuristic weapons, like the ones which were deployed in Venezuela, that struck fear into the minds of all our adversaries, the same adversaries now watching in shock and laughter as America falters in this half cocked, expedition against one of the strongest nations in the Middle East.

4) China is weighing an invasion of Taiwan by July of this year, because of the very real distraction and depletion of U.S. military stock piles, troops, and resources, for the Iran conflict.

5) U.S. casualties have easily reached 500, with many injured and dead that have not yet been admitted by the Pentagon.

America has lost 4 fixed wing aircraft, more than we’ve lost in 20 years of war combined.

The aircraft were not shot down “accidentally” as previously thought. They were downed by sympathizers in the Kuwaiti Air Force. The pilot indeed went rogue, and other fractures in the shaky Middle East alliance are plausible as this war drags on.

Russia and China have been capturing data from the combat operations, and providing satellite and intelligence support to Iran, and as part of this, have cracked the signal communication for America’s B-2 bombers, meaning, one of our primary deployment means for nuclear weapons, previously stealth and untraceable in radar, can now be tracked in flight and shot down, a major blow to nuclear deterrence and MAD threat against other super powers.

This war may have effectively “evened the playing field” for China.

America’s only options are bad, and Kent knew this when he resigned. Best thing we can do is literally and figuratively “put down the shovel” and stop digging our hole deeper.

Cease all combat operations before this escalates into a new world war, and more Americans and allies are killed.

Welcome to Hormuz!

   Trump keeps talking about "Kharg island" (جزیره خارگ in Arabic script) but unfortunately the forsaken 20 km2 rock deep inside the Persian Gulf, close to Kuwait should be the very last of his concerns. The Island is little more than a deep sea terminal where oil tankers come to load crude oil, being much easier to approach than the mainland terminals nearby. The oil is transported by pipeline to the island which is therefore of no strategic importance whatsoever. 

   What he should really obsess about is the much larger "Qeshm Island" (جزيرة قشم) which is located right in the middle of the Hormuz strait and almost impossible to take over. But to understand the challenge, words are not enough.

    Looking at the map, you will notice that the strait of Hormuz is exceptionally shallow which is the reason why it is said to be "narrow". In reality, it is quite large since it takes about 2 hours to cross from Khasab in Oman to Bandar-Abbas in Iran. A treacherous ride that hundreds of fast boats do daily to transport contraband between the two countries. But this is only part of the story.   

      Here above is what the coast looks like. Beautiful, most certainly but also deadly. This is not Iwo-jima, the Japanese island with its black volcanic sand beaches where the Americans lost 5,000 men. More like the cliffs of Omaha Beach in Normandy where the soldiers struggled on D-Day. But although what was a problem in 1944, which should easily be solved in 2026 with helicopters, what's behind these cliffs is the real obstacle. 

 

   To say that the landscape of Qeshm Island is forbidding is again an understatement. Almost completely devoid of vegetation, or roads, this is definitively not Normandy which was already so difficult to move around. 

   And then there is the absolute killer: In a couple of months, the temperature will be well above 50C (or about 125F). This is so hot that your head becomes dizzy after a few minutes outside. So think about soldiers with their backpacks and armament. This is very close to mission impossible. 

   But there is worse still. Behind these hills, there are real mountains from which the Strait of Hormuz can be controlled 270 degrees and from above.  

   All this means that practically, whatever the Americans do in the South of Iran, controlling the Strait of Hormuz will not happen in weeks or even months.  

   The Iranians have said that this war is existential for them. They will not surrender or give up easily. The Americans may have an overwhelming force but Iran with its extremely rugged terrain is nothing like the flat desert of Iraq. 

   And then there are the deeper obstacles which are the reason why the war should never have happened to start with: Iran, unlike all the Arab countries of the Middle East is not an artificial country created after the fall of the Ottoman Empire during the First World War but a deeply rooted civilization occupying their land, which is the size of Western Europe, for over 3,000 years.

   It is also the heart of the Shia faith which has been opposed to the rest of the Sunni Muslims for over 1,000 years. 

   To open this old festering wound at this stage was absolute madness. The Sunnis in Saudi Arabia and the Emirates are saying that now that the US started this war, it must be completed with the defeat of their ancestral enemy. They have a point. But what is more likely to happen, unfortunately for them, is a complete remodeling of the artificial borders of their rootless kingdoms and their wealth slowly, or maybe not so slowly, evaporating and reverting to its sandy (and oily) origin.  

     

UK's Ofcom To Investigate Complaints Of Climate-Change Denial

   George Orwell would be appalled but probably not surprised that the UK is at the forefront of Orwellian policies, being on the verge of criminalizing "climate denial" speech.

   People who follow this channel will know that I represent Climate denialism of the worst kind since I often write on the subject based on scientific evidences that what we are currently experiencing is a gradual rise of temperatures which has been going on for over 200 years since the Little Ice Age of the 17th Century and absolutely nothing to worry about. Temperatures will rising for another few decades until they reach a new optimum equivalent to the Middle Age optimum, about half to one degree higher than today, or maybe even the Roman optimum which was a little higher still and lasted longer before falling gradually later on. 

   But who cares about cycles and natural fluctuations when the narrative is that the climate is changing "because" of human activities and more specifically the "massive" emissions of CO2? Who cares that the climate was changing long before humans were on the planet and sometimes extremely violently? 

   The real problem of society is that to be controlled, people need to believe that they are guilty of something very bad and need some kind of redemption. Religion invented the Original Sin for which people needed to confess regularly. This was then. Now, most people in developed countries have lost faith and another sin had to be created based on the new "scientific" credo our modern society invented. And lo Global Warming was born, soon to be superseded by the more flexible "Climate Change". The all-weather concept which can be adapted to whatever happens to the real weather which may or may not cooperate with computer models which as we all know by now are far more accurate than reality.    

by Paul Homewood via notalotofpeopleknowthat blog,

This is frightening. Indeed it is truly Orwellian...

From the Guardian:

A U-turn by the UK’s broadcasting regulator Ofcom means it will investigate complaints of climate change denial on television and radio for the first time since 2017. The move marks a victory for campaigners who have accused the regulator of allowing some broadcasters “to spout dangerous climate lies” and “flout” rules on accuracy and impartiality.

Complaints about programmes on TalkTV and TalkRadio were assessed by Ofcom, which then decided not to investigate, the same result as more than 1,000 other climate complaints since 2020. However, after a letter from the Good Law Project (GLP) in January, requesting an explanation for the rejections, Ofcom said it had withdrawn its original decision and would “consider afresh” the complaints.

One complaint was about comments from a Talk guest who said in November that climate change “was a deliberate effort to create fake anxiety … out of something that is false”. In the second case, also in November, another guest said the Labour government’s energy policies were “suicidal”, “driven by pseudoscience in many cases” and “a kind of cultish behaviour”.

A reassessment led Ofcom to conclude its approach to “due impartiality” in the broadcasts “required reconsideration”, with the results of the investigations to be published in due course. Ofcom stuck by its decision to not investigate three other climate complaints.

“Rightwing channels have been allowed to spout dangerous climate lies, unchecked, for too long,” said a GLP spokesperson. “We’re glad Ofcom is finally listening and await the conclusion of the investigations. Should it fail to take action against Talk’s misinformation, we will not hesitate to hold them to account.”

An Ofcom spokesperson said: “In re-examining the programmes, we concluded that they raise potentially substantive issues under the broadcasting code which warrant investigation. We have, therefore, opened investigations [on] whether they breached our rules on due impartiality and material misleadingness.” Ofcom said it had also opened another climate-related investigation after a viewer complaint about another TalkTV programme.

A spokesperson for Talk said: “We, as we always would, will cooperate with Ofcom in these matters.”

Full story here.

The first point to make is that there are already rules in place to address factually inaccurate news reporting. But this is not what is at issue here.

OFCOM, it appears, now want to police free speech. Both of these new complaints concern the views of guests, not the journalists or presenters.

Guests on these sort of shows make all sorts of outlandish, and sometimes patently false, comments about all sorts of topics. That is their right. We still have something called freedom of speech in this country.

OFCOM does not get involved in these other cases, so why should they intervene when the topic is climate change?

This decision to intervene in free speech by OFCOM opens a whole new barrel of worms.

What will happen in future if somebody challenges the establishment line on, say, hurricanes?

There is a wide variety of scientific opinion on most climate topics. Will OFCOM be the new arbiter of which version is “correct”?

Will they ban anybody who dares offer a different opinion, or, heaven forbid, dare to quote some facts?

Maybe OFCOM will also ban all use of fraudulent weather attribution models, but I somehow doubt it!

This is a chilling suppression of free speech. “Truth” is fine, but who decides what is true and what is not? OFCOM? The Government? BBC? UN?

And it won’t stop with climate change. How long before we are not allowed to call Starmer the worst PM ever? Or dare to criticise his Government?

We will end up with George Orwell’s Ministry of Truth, where the Government decides what is right and what is wrong.

“The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command”

Eurasia Energy War?

    Trump has just opened a Pandora box by attacking Iran. We could get a world war, although at this stage, it is still unlikely considering the fact that the West is not ready to wage war. But what we WILL get without a doubt is a major re-balance of power which inevitably means a drastic reduction of the relative importance of Western countries and the corollary of a very significant reduction of the purchasing power both in the US but especially in Europe. 

   How bad will it be? 

   The first hint is that the financial markets have not yet factored in the risk. When they do, any time now, the decline will be significant. Financial authorities will immediately intervene with limitless funds to prevent a meltdown which conversely guaranties that inflation will rise significantly. What is essential to understand is that inflation of products and deflation of income can actually strike paradoxically at the same time, resulting in a significant crash of purchasing power without triggering hyperinflation, which I think is what we will get this time.    

   What is absolutely certain is that we're in for a very rough ride in the coming months. The recession which did not materialized over the last few years will be swept aside by a depression which will completely transform the current paradigm. 

   It is hard to imagine being more wrong than Fukuyama, who 34 years ago, in 1992 wrote his book titled: "The end of History" just as a new chapter was on the verge of being written.   

Eurasia Energy War?

As analysts and traders continue to assess the Gulf energy shock and its implications for the global economy, another alarming development has emerged across the energy sector: Ukrainian kamikaze drone strikes have reportedly disrupted a significant portion of Russia's oil export capacity, according to Reuters.

Reuters calculates that recent Ukrainian drone strikes on Russia's oil and fuel export infrastructure, including attacks on all three of Russia's major western oil export ports, Novorossiysk on the Black Sea and Primorsk and Ust-Luga on the Baltic Sea, have eliminated 40% of Russia's oil export capacity, or around 2 million barrels per day, in just a matter of weeks.

Taken together, the twin disruptions of Gulf and Russian energy flows (in Eurasia) materially tighten the global energy supply outlook in the coming weeks and months.

The convergence of these shocks suggests crude prices are likely to remain elevated as traders price in a sustained geopolitical risk premium and reduced global spare capacity.

Kiev has also targeted pumping stations and refineries as part of its effort to squeeze Moscow's oil revenue, which funds a quarter of Russia's state budget and its war machine.

This month's attacks on Russia's oil and fuel export infrastructure have forced Moscow to divert more flows to eastern export supply channels.

Flows to China via the Skovorodino-Mohe and Atasu-Alashankou pipelines, plus ESPO Blend shipments from Kozmino, remain solid at 1.9 million barrels per day.

Russia is also still exporting around 250,000 barrels per day from Sakhalin and sending roughly 300,000 barrels per day to Belarusian refineries.

When two separate conflicts involving major powers begin to degrade energy infrastructure across Eurasia, we are left with one very big and unsettling question: At what point do both of these conflicts start to look less regional and more like the early stages of a world already at war?

Who wins? Well, Gulf of America, so far. 

California and Europe are in a bind! - Chevron Warns California Facing Historic Fuel Crisis As Diesel Hits Record $7

   When the tide recedes is when you see who was swimming naked. And sure enough, "green" Europe and California will be among the first to enjoy the benefits of a future without oil, pollution... and modern conveniences! 

   According to knowledgeable sources in Washington, Trump has succeeded in cutting himself almost completely from reality as his daily briefing on the war with Iran consists in a 2 minutes video of sycophant analysts telling him that all is going so well that they do not understand why the war lasted until "yesterday".  

   In other words, this is even worse than we thought. The lack of strategy is not a bug, but a feature of the Trump administration. "He" and apparently nobody else says what happens next based on his mood that day. 

   It would almost be funny if the consequences for the rest of the world were no so dire. Soon, fertilizers will be sorely missing in Africa for the coming growing season. But that painful prediction probably won't resonate much in Washington. More ominously, gas prices will spike in California, as explained below. But Californians are not trump voters. It is only when the pain reverberates in red-neck counties that the panic signal will start ringing in the capital. Then soon after, another concern will rise as weapon manufacturers try to expand production to replenish stocks of bombs and missiles, and encounter the bottleneck of Chinese rare earths. Good luck convincing the Chinese to increase exports!   

   And just like that, Iran is finding itself in a good negotiating position. Not because they won any battle but because they thought deeper about the economic consequences of such a conflict and positioned themselves wisely.    

Chevron Warns California Facing Historic Fuel Crisis As Diesel Hits Record $7

The world's biggest energy execs are currently at the annual CERAWeek conclave in Houston where, understandably, they are dropping bulletin bombs reeking of fire and brimstone, and warning the already critical oil/gas situation will only get worse if the pre-war status quo isn't restored (which incidentally will be great for their bottom lines... until the world is tipped into a recession).

Take US oil giant Chevron, which warned that California is careening toward an energy crisis because of the Iran war (which will likely be resolved soon), and that the company may quit refining oil in the state unless officials roll back taxes and regulations (which is unlikely to ever be resolved as long as Dems are in charge of the Golden State).

California is highly exposed to the disruption rippling across commodity markets because it imports about 20% of its refined fuels from Asia. But as extensively discussed here, oil product shipments from China, South Korea, Singapore and elsewhere are at risk of slowing significantly as Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz, leaving Asian nations struggling to meet their own demand at home let alone export to California.

Chevron’s oil refining head Andy Walz said the potential for fuel shortages in California is his worst fear: “We have refineries in Asia that are having to cut crude, and so they’re going to make less products,” Walz said in an interview Tuesday. “What if San Francisco doesn’t have the jet fuel it needs? Or Los Angeles? Or maybe gasoline?”

And as if to confirm his warning, just hours later the price of California Diesel hit a record high just above $7 per gallon, or $7.072 to be precise. 

That topped the previous record of $7.012 in June 2022, in the first months of Russia’s war in Ukraine.

Source: AAA

Since California is disconnected from the US fuel-making centers of Texas and Louisiana, it is essentially an energy island. That’s compounded by multiple refinery closures in recent years due to increased costs driven by regulations designed to fight climate change and cap oil industry profits, not to mention the state's toxic and oppressive regulatory regime. 

As a result, California consumers are more exposed than most other Americans to surging energy prices because of the Iran war. They already pay nearly $6 for a gallon of gasoline, compared with a national average of close to $4, due to the state's ruinous legacy "green" regime. It’s a growing political problem for Governor Gavin Newsom, a Democrat who is expected to run for president in 2028.

“California has decided that they’re going to rely on imports,” Walz said at the CERAWeek by S&P Global conference in Houston. “It’s a dangerous game", Walz added tongue-in-cheek.

California officials should declare an “energy emergency,” reform its climate and tax rules and promote in-state oil production, Walz said. Without such action, Chevron could quit refining in California within a decade, he said.

A spokesman for California Governor Newsom’s office said oil companies are “cashing in” on the war in Iran and running a “coordinated campaign” to attack California. In other words nothing will change until prices get to be so high, the state's residents demand change.

“If they’re serious about protecting consumers, they should direct that concern where it belongs: at Donald Trump. There’s no end in sight to Trump’s war taxing American families at the pump,” the spokesman, Anthony Martinez, said in an email, confirming Newsom's plan is... to pretend there is no problem.

Meanwhile, anyone with a brain can see what's coming: the problem in California is one of the state’s own making, Walz said.

The Trump administration has already used emergency wartime powers to authorize Sable Offshore, a Houston-based driller, to restart oil production off the California coast. The president has also temporarily waived a century-old maritime law called the Jones Act to help make it cheaper and easier to ship gasoline, diesel and other commodities between US ports.

Meanwhile, California already has the nation’s toughest fuel standards as well as a carbon cap-and-trade program that critics say forces consumers to pay the highest prices in the nation. Its goal to reduce carbon emissions 85% by 2045 relies heavily on a near-complete phaseout of gasoline-powered cars and a large reduction in heavy industry — including refining. 

Nonetheless, California remains the country’s second-largest consumer of gasoline and the largest market for jet fuel, for which there’s currently no practical low-carbon alternative. The Democratic state's recent revulsion toward Elon Musk, and Tesla, has not helped the looming fuel crisis. 

“The California intent to offshore carbon to other nations has offshored their security of supply,” Walz said. “They’ve offshored jobs and they haven’t had any impact on carbon.” 

Chevron, which has tankers sitting idle on each side of the Strait of Hormuz, is taking the unusual step of shipping Gulf Coast oil to California through the Panama Canal as the war disrupts shipments from the region that West Coast refiners typically use, Walz said. 

China has already imposed a fuel export ban as shipments from the Gulf dwindle. If the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked long enough, other Asian countries could follow suit. Chevron’s scenario planning initially looked at the Strait being closed until the end of March.

“Now our scenario plans are worse,” Walz said. “It’s going to be longer and we’re trying to look around the corner.”

California is home to more than 30 military bases. That includes one of the largest in the US, Travis Air Force Base, which Chevron supplies from its Richmond refinery.

“I think the US government should be concerned,” Walz said.

But wait, there's more because the state's green lunatics threaten to make an already dire crisis something truly historic: new emissions rules proposed by the California Air Resources Board, if implemented, threaten to drive costs for the state’s remaining refineries even higher. Chevron estimates the additional expenses could hit $500 million within five years.

“They need to abandon the tax on refineries or they won’t have any refineries in 10 years,” Walz said. “If it stays that way — Chevron will be gone in 10 years for sure. We won’t be able to make it.”

* * *

But it's not just California that faces a historic crisis: Europe is about to get crushed as well. 

According to Shell CEO Wael Sawan, Europe will soon begin to experience the same kind of disruption to fuel supplies that Asia has faced due to the war in Iran in recent weeks. Sawan said the effects of the conflict continue to ripple out across global fuel markets, first in South Asia, then Southeast Asia and Northeast Asia, and increasingly in Europe as April approaches.

“We are trying to work with governments to just alert them to the various levers they will need to pull, including on the demand side, including what they need to do around storage,” he said Tuesday at the same CERAWeek conference. 

Just like California, expect Europe to do nothing besides pointing fingers, until it is too late.