Thursday, January 29, 2026

Is Donald Trump Playing 27-Dimensional Chess?

  I tend to avoid political subjects being more interested in science, society and trends but this is an exception.

  As we witness Trump more and more obviously and outrageously going off rail it is worth examining what's wrong with the American system. 

  The article below does this in an interesting and thorough way.  

by Ron Unz

I’ve never liked Karl Rove, but I’ve always respected his competence as a political strategist given his success in winning two presidential terms for an idiot like “W.”

Soon after his patron left the White House amid record-low approval ratings, Rove became a weekly columnist at the Wall Street Journal. Although I’ve almost never read any of the many hundreds of op-eds he subsequently published, I’ve usually glanced at the titles.

So his most recent piece “Is Trump Trying to Lose the Midterms?” caught my eye, and not only did I read it all the way through but I actually agreed with almost every word.

He opened his column by declaring that he found Trump’s behavior “mystifying.”

A year ago Tuesday, Donald Trump was sworn in for a second time as president. It’s been a year of rapid movement, controversy and upheaval. It’s also been utterly mystifying.

Why does the president keep doing things that are against his political self-interest?

He went on to note that the immigration issue had been a central reason for Trump’s 2024 victory, but the president seemed to be snatching a huge political defeat out of the jaws of victory:

On the lost-opportunity front, look no further than the president’s extraordinary achievement in securing the Southern border. He stopped the flood of illegal migrants. He was right. We didn’t need a new law, only a different president.

Yet Mr. Trump didn’t take a victory lap to publicize the success. If he had gone to the border, Hispanic and Democratic local officials would have thanked him for removing the tremendous burden on their hospitals, food pantries, social services and public safety. That image would have been powerful and lingered.

Instead, the White House has turned a major win into a major drag on the president’s approval: 58% of Americans and 66% of independents disapproved of Mr. Trump’s handling of immigration in a Jan. 12 CNN/SRRS survey. The administration’s pledge to focus on expelling violent criminal aliens—“the worst of the worst”—was widely popular. But Team Trump misplayed its hand by going a good deal further. Dispatching Immigration and Customs Enforcement to Home Depots to grab day laborers, or to other places where otherwise law-abiding illegal aliens congregate, is unpopular. These expanded ICE sweeps are turning voters against Mr. Trump. In a Jan. 12 Quinnipiac University poll, 57% of all voters and 64% of independents disapproved of how ICE is enforcing immigration laws.

The Trump administration made the situation worse by describing Renee Good, the woman killed by an ICE agent earlier this month, as a “domestic terrorist” and fomenting further chaos in Minneapolis. In a Jan. 12 CNN/SRRS survey, 51% of Americans said ICE was making cities “less safe.”

A few weeks ago my own lengthy review of that issue had come to very similar conclusions:

Rove also sharply questioned Trump’s bizarre determination to acquire Greenland, with our president repeatedly declaring that if necessary he would invade and conquer that barren, frozen wasteland:

As puzzling as his mishandling of immigration is Mr. Trump’s insistence that for national security, Denmark must surrender Greenland. For weeks he made it sound as though he might even invade—clarifying only on Wednesday morning that he won’t go to war with a NATO ally. That he threatened so long to use force hasn’t endeared him to voters. Eighty-six percent of Americans oppose taking Greenland by force—including 68% of Republicans and 94% of independents, according to a Jan. 12 Quinnipiac poll. And they’re right to. An invasion would destroy NATO and gravely damage American trade and political ties. Only China and Russia would have profited.

What makes this still more confounding is that the U.S. already has a treaty allowing it to establish military bases in Greenland. Yet Mr. Trump has insisted America must own the land outright, which even without the possibility of war is a political loser. Quinnipiac found 55% of Americans oppose “trying to buy Greenland” while 37% support it.

But even more peculiar were Trump’s economic policies, especially his constantly changing tax rates on our three trillion dollars of imported goods and his attempts to eliminate the independence of the Federal Reserve. Most recently, his administration had begun a criminal prosecution of outgoing Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, whom Trump himself had previously appointed to that position.

That isn’t even the most unhinged moment from the first year of Trump 2.0. Remember “Liberation Day” last April? He levied tariffs willy-nilly, even on places with which we have trade surpluses or no trade. For months the president has attacked the Federal Reserve’s independence to set interest rates, roiling markets…He called voters’ affordability concerns a “hoax,” then moments later claimed he’d address them…On Saturday, he announced a 10% tariff on imports from European countries that criticized his threats to invade Greenland and warned he’d raise it to 25% if the Danes didn’t strike a deal by June 1. On Tuesday, he suggested he’d send Americans $2,000 “tariff rebate” checks without congressional approval.

In recent months, Trump had bombed and attacked some nine different countries, in each case without any Congressional approval. But Rove noted that he nonetheless seemed outraged that he hadn’t been awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for his actions:

Last Thursday, he accepted Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado’s gift of her 2025 Nobel Peace Prize medal as if he had earned it…And in a missive almost too over the top to believe, he recently tried to bully the Norwegian prime minister because the Norwegian Nobel Committee hadn’t awarded him the Peace Prize. Because of the perceived slight, Mr. Trump wrote, “I no longer feel an obligation to think purely of Peace.”

Considering all these facts, I doubt that too many intelligent Americans would question Rove’s conclusion:

The Trump presidency wasn’t normal even in his first term, but something is different now. Americans are increasingly unnerved by the president’s rambling appearances and late-night screeds. Whether it’s age or advisers who can’t check his worst instincts, Mr. Trump is acting in ways no American president has. His downward spiral has led 58% of Americans and 66% of independents in the CNN/SRRS poll to describe his second term as “a failure.” If his team can’t turn things around, he’ll help defeat his party this fall and damage the country for years.

 

Rove’s appraisal of Trump’s presidency was hardly unique. Just a few days earlier the first two pages of the Journal‘s Weekend Review section had published “Is Trump Losing Joe Rogan, America’s Most Important Swing Voter?” As our country’s most popular podcaster, Rogan’s support had been a crucial element of Trump’s upset 2024 victory:

In February 1968, President Lyndon B. Johnson famously lost Walter Cronkite when the renowned news anchor told Americans he could no longer accept the president’s assurances about the war in Vietnam.

This week, President Trump may have lost Joe Rogan for the prosecution of his own war—this one on immigration…

…As Cronkite was in his time, Rogan is now an essential barometer of national sentiment in a fractured and suspicious age…

The three-hour audience he provided Trump on the eve of the 2024 election, and his subsequent endorsement, is regarded by many as a pivotal moment in that contest. Certainly, Trump seemed to think so, inviting Rogan to the Oval Office.

Earlier this week, though, the podcaster recoiled when faced with the particulars of Trump’s signature campaign promise to undertake the largest deportation of illegal immigrants in American history. In particular, Rogan appeared shaken by the death of Renee Nicole Good, a Minneapolis woman who was shot dead by an Immigration and Customs Enforcement agent under contested circumstances…

Later, Rogan would invoke the Nazis when describing the masked and militarized ICE agents roaming Minneapolis streets. “Are we really going to be the Gestapo? ‘Where’s your papers?’ Is that what we’ve come to?” he asked…

Video Player


“He has a huge audience, and a lot of people listen to him, both directly and indirectly,” Lee Drutman, a senior fellow at the left-leaning New America think tank, observed. “So when he says ‘enough with this ICE brutality!’ he is clarifying an uncertain and possibly ambiguous moment for many people, and coming down firmly on the side of civil liberties”…

Rogan was put off by masked and militarized ICE agents roaming Minneapolis streets
Rogan was put off by masked and militarized ICE agents roaming Minneapolis streets

Guests on “The Joe Rogan Experience” range from UFO enthusiasts, Hollywood A-listers and scientists to fellow comedians of varying degrees of fame. In one of his most famous episodes, he enticed billionaire Elon Musk to smoke a joint, provoking a noticeable dent in Tesla’s share price. Rogan’s podcast has also served as a breeding ground for a generation of younger stars, including Theo Von and Andrew Schulz, who popularized the “manosphere” and infused MAGA with youth and testosterone…

Rogan is a UFC commentator and Trump a fan. The UFC chief executive, Dana White, told Rolling Stone that he made it a mission to bring Rogan on board MAGA before the 2024 election.

Rogan’s Trump interview—which was released less than two weeks before Election Day—has been viewed 61 million times on YouTube, and prompted Democrats to lament how they lost the podcaster. When Trump celebrated victory, White joined him on stage and thanked “the mighty and powerful Joe Rogan”…

Yet even before Rogan’s comments this week, there were signs that he was growing uneasy with the president’s maximalist second term. He questioned the snatch-and-grab operation to oust Venezuelan strongman Nicolás Maduro, objected to the renaming of the Kennedy Center, accused the Trump administration of trying to “gaslight” people over the Jeffrey Epstein files and called out Trump for mocking Hollywood producer Rob Reiner after he and his wife were found dead in their home.

Immigration, though, may stand apart, as an issue that was the fulcrum of Trump’s campaign. In the president’s telling during his epic rallies, illegal immigrants are to blame for everything from housing shortages to rampant crime and economic decline. To often thunderous applause, the then-candidate promised to mount the largest deportation in American history.

So what changed for Rogan?

Part of it may be the video. The gruesome footage of Good’s killing has gone viral, like that of Floyd before her. It has also been accompanied by clips on social media of masked ICE agents who look as though they’re in a foreign war zone—not Minnesota.

“I mean, when people say it’s justifiable because the car hit him, it seemed like she was kind of turning the car away,” Rogan said, appearing to reject the administration’s attempt to portray Good as a domestic terrorist seeking to run over an ICE agent.

 

On Saturday morning the latest killing by ICE agents in Minneapolis claimed the life of a 37-year-old American citizen under circumstances that seemed even more outrageous and illegal, with all the facts laid out in a very convincing video by an experienced combat veteran:

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As acclaimed journalist Glenn Greenwald noted in his own discussion of the incident, not only were the facts absolutely clear-cut in this particular case, but it was equally obvious that all the government officials were blatantly lying. Greenwald particularly condemned the “Israelization” of American society, in which anyone killed by the government is immediately denounced as “a domestic terrorist.”

One of the main excuses provided by Trump’s minions was that the victim had possessed a perfectly legal handgun for which he had a permit, a handgun that he had never touched let alone attempted to draw. For many decades conservatives had always expressed their fervent support for the Second Amendment, so Greenwald noted how strange it was that so many of them had now totally reversed their position on that issue.

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Personally, I find it absolutely hilarious that huge numbers of dim-witted right-wingers have now loudly declared that government agents should be authorized to summarily execute any American citizen who exercises his legal right to own and carry a handgun.

Obviously, the video-recorded killings of American citizens on the streets of Minneapolis for employing their own constitutional rights represents only an extreme example of our current situation. Indeed, this is merely the visible tip of what is likely a very large submerged iceberg of other such crimes and illegalities.

For example, a video aired on the Young Turks channel reported the story of a 17-year-old American citizen working at a Target store who was abducted by a squad of masked ICE agents, hustled into an unmarked van, tortured or badly beaten, then left terrorized in the parking lot of a local Walmart.

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Vice President JD Vance is a graduate of the Yale School of Law, and according to his public statements all ICE agents are completely immunized against investigation or prosecution by local authorities for any crimes they might commit, including beatings, torture, or murder. Furthermore, since they are masked and displaying no names nor forms of personal ID, simply identifying the ones who were accused of committing any such crimes might be quite difficult.

All of this has fully confirmed the prescient concerns that Andrew Anglin had raised six months ago, which seem to be coming true far more quickly than anyone had ever expected:

I also find it noteworthy that most of these ICE agents seem to wear no standard issue uniforms, but merely various forms of semi-military-style clothing or gear, making it difficult to even determine whether they are actually the government agents that they purport to be.

For example, that same Young Turks video also mentioned that there seem to be a growing reports that masked individuals claiming to be ICE agents have begun abducting young women from local city streets, hustling them into unmarked vans, and sexually assaulting them, with many but not all of the victims being Latinas. It’s obviously difficult to know whether these perpetrators are actually legitimate ICE agents exploiting their positions to obtain some extracurricular fringe benefits or merely criminals pretending to be in that category.

As these stories increase in number and begin circulating, I think that support for ICE and the presidency that enabled its outrageously rogue behavior will continue to decline.

 

Although the immigration enforcement policies of the Trump Administration seem extremely counterproductive or even disastrous, not least from a political perspective, support for ICE agents and their recent shootings still seems quite strong in the comment-threads of our own very lightly moderated website.

I think this is mostly due to the natural tendency for despairing, unhappy individuals to see things that aren’t actually there and continue to believe whatever they want to be true.

As many might remember, during the first term of President Donald Trump there was a widespread tendency among his ardent supporters to claim that many of his seemingly stupid, incompetent policies were actually subtle moves in a deeper and brilliant political strategy. According to them, Trump was playing 3-D chess while his confused critics could only comprehend checkers. Indeed, that sort of defensive excuse became so common that it was soon regularly ridiculed by sarcastic responses that Trump’s obvious failures constituted devious steps in his 27-dimensional game of chess.

Thus, Trump had won the Republican nomination and the presidency based upon his promise to “build a wall” against immigrants from south of the border, but no wall was ever built. Trump had promised to improve our relations with Russia, but after absurdly being accused of being a Russian intelligence asset, he backtracked and did nothing. Trump cycled through numerous chiefs of staff and other top administration officials, hiring and firing them in rapid succession. But during all that time, many of his devotees continued to interpret all these failures and erratic actions as clever moves in a breathtaking strategy that would ultimately checkmate his opponents.

As his 2020 reelection campaign approached, these foolish beliefs became the nucleus of the bizarre QAnon movement, whose advocates urged doubters to “trust the plan.” The QAnon supporters claimed that Trump was gradually laying the groundwork not merely for his own reelection, but for the total defeat of the nefarious secret political elites who for generations had actually ruled our country from behind the scenes. These fearsome enemies were often characterized as being Satanic pedophiles, who had infiltrated and controlled nearly all our powerful institutions.

In early 2020, a disgusted White Nationalist named Brad Griffin who blogged under the pen-name “Hunter Wallace” published a good piece summarizing all of Trump’s numerous betrayals and failures, while ridiculing the so-called “Q-tards” who continued to still support him in worshipful fashion.

  • Trump’s Chumps
    Brad Griffin • Occidental Dissent • February 6, 2020 • 2,500 Words

Just as Griffin argued, there actually turned out to be no such “plan” and Trump’s political enemies used their near-total control of the electronic and social media to ensure Biden’s victory in 2020 and drive Trump from the White House.

Believing that the election had been stolen from Trump by ballot fraud and rigged voting machines, a huge number of enraged Trump loyalists, many of them ardent QAnon followers, traveled to Washington to support their hero, and hundreds of the most determined of these stormed the capitol building in January 2021. A woman named Ashli Babbitt was shot dead, several others died in the violence and confusion and many of the rest were eventually tracked down, arrested, and imprisoned. The anonymous “Q” commenter who had misled them all soon vanished from the Internet, and the gullible Trumpists gradually recognized that they had all been tricked and deceived.

Yet against all odds, Trump somehow managed to revive his fortunes and stage a political comeback, more through the stupidity of his Democratic enemies than anything that he himself did. Their vindictive legal prosecutions of the defeated Trump made him a hero and a martyr in the eyes of most Republicans, giving him the media oxygen and sympathy votes that allowed him to easily recapture the Republican nomination in 2024.

During the previous four years, the insane “open borders” policies of President Joe Biden and his administration had allowed an unprecedented 10 million unauthorized foreign migrants to enter this country. That disaster, together with growing evidence of Biden’s obvious senility, completely doomed his reelection chances.

Facing certain defeat in November, the Democratic Party leadership forced the already-nominated Biden off the ticket, a political maneuver previously unknown in American presidential history. But they foolishly chose to replace him with his totally unqualified and equally unpopular Vice President Kamala Harris, whose elevation did little to improve the prospects of the Democratic ticket.

The result was that Trump won a victory that November, returning him to the White House, and although his plurality in the popular vote was rather narrow, it was the first that he had ever enjoyed.

 

During his first term, many members of the American political establishment had been terrified by the horrors that a seemingly loose cannon like Trump would unleash. But instead he did little or nothing, having been quickly tied up in knots by the Russiagate investigation. Indeed, Trump did so few major or newsworthy things during those four years that I only very rarely even discussed his activities in the dozens of articles I published during that period.

With Trump now eight years older, most expected that this second term would merely be a repeat of blustery words and angry tweets without any associated actions. But instead the last twelve months have seen Trump become one of the most consequential presidents in our entire history, successfully intimidating Congress into near total submission and using waves of legally dubious executive orders to grant himself essentially monarchical powers, powers far greater than those that any previous president had ever attempted to exercise.

Although Karl Rove’s WSJ column had given considerable attention to the political insanity of Trump’s immigration policies, the strategist had suggested that our president’s economic and tax policies might have been even more “unhinged” and I can’t dispute that.

We annually import more than three trillion dollars of foreign goods, and Trump’s many Imperial Decrees have changed our tariff tax rates on these, doing so at weekly or even daily intervals, always based upon his personal will or personal whim. There have been countless absolute monarchs and mad dictators, but I’ve never heard of one who ever behaved in such cavalier fashion, so it seems unlikely that any major country in the entire history of the world had ever so frequently changed its trade or tax laws.

Most recently, Trump claimed the authority to control the financial activities of every corporation in America, including its dividends, buybacks, salaries, and bonuses:

An executive order posted Wednesday evening said companies “are not permitted in any way, shape, or form to pay dividends or buy back stock, until such time as they are able to produce a superior product, on time and on budget.”

Earlier Wednesday, Trump said in a Truth Social post that he would limit executive pay to $5 million, but the dollar figure wasn’t included in the executive order.

Around the same time, Trump gave a wide-ranging two-hour interview to four New York Times journalists, and his own statements were of similar boldness. He declared that he had no regard whatsoever for international legal niceties or normative traditions and was only restricted by his own personal morality, as he chose to interpret it:

And he said that he did not feel constrained by any international laws, norms, checks or balances.

Asked by my colleagues if there were any limits on his ability to use American military might, he said: “Yeah, there is one thing. My own morality. My own mind. It’s the only thing that can stop me.”

This seemed an alarming indication of megalomania, far beyond anything I’d ever seen expressed by any petty Third World despot, let alone by the elected leader of a top world superpower.

Trump’s total lack of introspection or willingness to seek objective advice has naturally sometimes led him into dead-ends. Although he successfully kidnapped the president of Venezuela in a commando raid, his stated intent was to gain control of that country’s oil reserves, which he claimed were the largest in the world. But most of those huge reserves were merely a statistical fiction, with estimates of the crude that is actually available for economic recovery being more than 90% lower than that absurdly exaggerated figure. So Trump’s gross violation of international law had produced little economic benefit.

Moreover, Trump had expressed his total confidence that under American control Venezuelan production could quickly be dramatically boosted. But an important story a few days ago in the WSJ explained that none of the major oil companies wanted to go into Venezuela and invest the many tens of billions of dollars necessary to rebuild that country’s decrepit oil infrastructure. Not only would any such project be extremely risky, but since Trump had been promising to reduce oil prices to $50 per barrel, any such oil that eventually did become available would be uneconomical to extract. That was obviously a major problem for Trump.

But as I joked at the time, our president might have an obvious solution, based upon the same methods he had used with such effectiveness a few weeks ago. Trump could just send out his Delta Force commandoes to kidnap all the oil company CEOs and hold them hostage until their companies agreed to invest at least $100 billion in Venezuela!

 

Immigration raids and tariff hikes, no matter how counter-productive or irrationally designed, were at least part of normal politics, and I suspect that many of the voters who supported Trump in November 2024 had done so in hopes that he would implement these measures.

However, I doubt that a single American voter had chosen Trump because they hoped that he would decide to invade and conquer Greenland.

I’ve been following American politics for nearly a half-century, and during many of those decades our public life has been heavily dominated by extremely militaristic and aggressive factions such as the Neocons. But in all those years, I can’t remember anyone ever suggesting that Greenland had any strategic or economic value whatsoever, merely being a barren, frozen wasteland that was home to a few tens of thousands of impoverished Eskimos, though these days the politically-correct have demanded that they must always be called “Inuit.”

Karl Rove had also spent his lifetime in politics and was just as puzzled as I had been.

Perhaps Trump and his closest advisors are such geopolitical geniuses that they have discovered something that no other American strategic thinker had ever noticed throughout the entire twentieth century. But then again, perhaps not.

Prof. John Mearsheimer is one of our foremost figures in the Realist school of foreign policy, and when he was recently asked why Trump wanted Greenland, he began laughing, almost uncontrollably.

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In describing Trump’s recent foreign policy endeavors, including those involving Greenland, Prof. Jeffrey Sachs applied a wide range of characterizations, including “delusional,” “unhinged,” and “crazy,” and behaving like a three-year-old. He suggested that no president in our national history had ever acted in such a manner:

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As the longtime chief of staff to former Secretary of State Colin Powell, Col. Lawrence Wilkerson had regularly participated in the highest decision-making circles, and he described Trump’s behavior at Davos as something out of an “insane asylum.”

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These are all individuals of enormous public credibility and stature, and I’m pleased that they are now willing to speak so plainly about the predicament faced by our unfortunate country.

Over the last year the titles of my own articles on Donald Trump had already included phrases such as “Looney Tunes…Mad Emperor…President Caligula.”

Individuals all across the ideological spectrum are gradually coming to this same disheartening conclusion. Greg Johnson is a prominent White Nationalist, and back in 2016 he had published articles hailing Trump as the long-awaited God-Emperor of the Alt-Right movement, though by April 2017 he had grown disillusioned. My impression was that he supported Trump in 2024 though without much enthusiasm.

But then a few days ago he published “Time to Replace Trump,” an article in he repeatedly used the word “insane.”

Trump threatened to take Greenland by force and to impose U.S. tariffs on several European countries (including Norway and Finland) that opposed Trump’s Greenland Grab…

My reaction was summarized by a Trump supporter who shared Trump’s message with me: “I’m beginning to think the Dems are right that Trump is insane.” When I looked at X, it was clear that a lot of other people felt the same way. It wasn’t noteworthy that Leftists agreed, since they are stopped clocks. What was noteworthy is that people on the Right were drawing the same conclusion.

Why does Trump’s message seem insane, i.e., detached from reality?

First of all, Trump seems unable to grasp the fact that the government of Norway does not award the Nobel Peace Prize, even though he has been informed of this.

Second, the argument that since an organization in Norway did not award Trump the Nobel Peace Prize, Trump no longer needs to think purely of peace (in relation to Denmark, no less), sounds like narcissistic rage and lashing out.

Somehow most people manage not to attack their neighbors without the bribe of the Nobel Peace Prize. But Donald Trump is different. Unfortunately, he is different in a bad way. He is acting like a gangster threatening war if he is not appeased with shiny trinkets.

This sort of narcissism is not abnormal for a spoiled child or a man slipping into a second childhood. But it is abnormal for a fully functional adult. What makes it seem insane is that a fully functional adult would know that he should hide such feelings. Trump feels no shame or need for concealment. This is a sign that he is out of touch with reality…

It seems insane to threaten war and economic sanctions to get something we already have, especially since it alienates our European allies, demoralizes Trump’s supporters, and emboldens his enemies.

 

As for Greenland itself, a frequent commenter on our website passed along some plausible-sounding things he’d heard about that large, desolate island:

Another thing that comports with your arguments about Greenland – it is one of the coldest places on Earth.

I spoke with someone today who had a relative in the US military who was stationed in Greenland in the past. This person said that Greenland is simply way too cold for drills and other oil/mineral extraction equipment to operate for most of the year. He said most residents of Greenland can only take showers for 6 months of the year because it is too cold to run water for the other 6 months.

In addition, this person said that the American military servicemen on the island file an inordinate amount of injury claims due to the cold/harsh climate conditions in Greenland, which makes it very hard to work there (I assume the same is true for non-military workmen there). He said that this is one of the reasons why the US military only sends a fraction of the military troops that they’re permitted to under the existing Greenland agreements — there’s just no point in sending US troops there.

He joked that if Russia or China fired off a few nukes from Greenland, the missiles might freeze before they could be launched.

Our standard world maps employ the Mercator projection to present the elements of our spherical globe on a rectangular display, and this severely inflates the apparent sizes of those landmasses such as Greenland that are closer to the poles.

So I strongly suspect that our ignorant president looked at one of these and mistakenly assumed that Greenland was far larger than it actually is and that its acquisition would expand our national territory by some enormous amount. A map displaying more accurate sizes might have considerably reduced his enthusiasm:

Indeed, if he’d been shown one of those latter maps, he might have diverted his plans for territorial expansion in a far more fruitful direction as I explained in a comment of my own:

I still say that Trump should have instead announced he was going to conquer and annex Antarctica:

(1) It’s many times larger than Greenland, so large it would have more than doubled the size of the U.S., making our country the largest in the world, well ahead of Russia.

(2) It’s an actual continent. So Trump would be forever known as the only American president who conquered an entire continent.

(3) Everyone likes penguins and they could have replaced the bald eagle as our national symbol.

 

THE IMPOSSIBLE JUST HAPPENED

   In 2008, the monetary authorities were taken by surprise and didn't have time time to adjust. They had to improvise over a long weekend and decided to flood the market with liquidities.

   Not so this time. They have been thinking for almost 20 years about what to do and consequently, we are about to see the result of all this "thinking" soon. 

  What I think it will end up being, is everybody being distributed worthless CBDC backed up by even more worthless government bonds and they (and the people in the known) having in the meantime bought all the tangibles assets; gold, metals, resources, shares and land with QE money offered liberally. Think about it: It cost "nothing" literally since you buy "stuff" of value with money you know will be inflated away and you have no intention whatsoever to pay back. Need more money to buy real assets? Just double the money supply, buy everything you want, sell all the worthless crap you do not want to pensions, funds, insurances, banks and clueless individuals stupid enough to buy, and you're done. Now you own the assets and "they" own the debt. Instead of reducing the debt to zero with inflation, the good people may express they concern violently at being robbed so brazenly, you just let the real assets inflate away out of reach to the majority of the population.   

   You have some gold or silver put aside? Great for you. But 99.9% of the people are not gonna get paid in gold anytime soon. In Japan, net salaries haven't changed in over 40 years which means that real salaries have dropped almost 50% during that time. No wonder the Japanese do not fell as rich as they used to be. Soon, the Europeans and Americans will join them. Then everybody with a few rare exceptions. Welcome to a world with no inflation except for everything you truly need! 

   In the end, that's the solution they found: Instead of inflation as in the good old days, we'll get mild inflation (deflation is not good at all as we learned in the 1930s), and a huge repricing of real assets so that in the end, they achieve what was needed: Shrink the debt relative to the total value of assets.      

Post by No Limit

The probability of what is happening is near zero.

Three 6-sigma events occurred in one week.

– Bonds
– Silver
– Gold

We are currently living through a statistical impossibility.

Let me explain:

Last Tuesday, Japanese 30-year debt recorded what’s called a “6-sigma” session.

2 days ago, silver did even better: it was at 5-sigma on the rally, then reached 6-sigma on the drop. IN A SINGLE SESSION.

Gold right now? It’s up 23% in less than a month. We’re getting very close to a 6-sigma event.

That’s three 6-sigma events in ONE WEEK.

To explain quickly: in finance, we measure price moves around an average using the standard deviation, which we call sigma.

1-sigma: mundane
2-sigma: common
3-sigma: becomes rare
4-sigma: exceptional
5-sigma: extremely rare
6-sigma: supposed to occur once in 500 million

Here are the 6-sigma-type episodes we saw previously:

– The october 1987 crash, 22% drop in 1 session
– March 2020 covid crash
– The swiss franc’s surge in january 2015
– WTI oil turning negative in april 2020

But we’ve never had 3 events occur in one week.

Do you see the point?

A 6-sigma event is almost NEVER triggered by a simple macro headline.

It almost always comes from the market’s structure: leverage, positions that are too concentrated, margin calls, collateral problems, and forced selling or buying.

That’s important to understand because we’re talking about internal strains in the system’s mechanics.

As you know, the Japanese bond market sits at the heart of the global financial system, and I won’t go back over the whole topic, but a 6-sigma move in a market that enormous doesn’t go unnoticed.

Seeing a 6-sigma move in silver a few days later gives one a lot to think about.

And now gold?? That’s absolutely insane.

Why are we seeing extreme statistical events, only days apart, in such different markets?

When a pillar of global funding becomes unstable, leverage tends to contract, and two things happen at the same time: forced selling in certain assets and forced buying of protection in others.

Historically, precious metals are often among the beneficiaries.

Long-term rates say something about the credibility of states: that is, their ability to honor future debts without resorting massively to inflation.

Precious metals say something about the credibility of the currency itself, and when both become unstable at the same time, we’re looking at a challenge to the monetary framework.

I won’t go on, because I want to share the rest in another tweet tomorrow, but generally when a regime starts to crack, the adjustments are BRUTAL.

It’s exactly in those moments that several high-sigma events appear across different asset classes.

I’ll repeat it: seeing three 6-sigma events back to back is not normal.

Gold and silver are telling you, explicitly, that we’re living through a real paradigm shift.

Wednesday, January 28, 2026

Japan's Debt Bomb Is About To Explode And Hit The US (Video - 14mn)

  We have reached the end of the financial road. Will the Japan debt bomb explode first? Possible? Likely? Does it even matter at this stage? When a house of card crumbles, do you really focus on which card fell first? 

  Interest rates rising unwind the carry trade and the artificial profits which kept zombie banks afloat. Now the tide is going down. We will soon see who was swimming naked. It is quite possible that it was in fact everybody!  

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O3cZhzItZe0

Tuesday, January 27, 2026

What Broke Trade Was The Fiat Dollar

   A great overview of how we got there money wise: 80 years in the making.  

by Jeffrey Tucker via The Epoch Times,

The postwar trading order is taking on an entirely new shape.

We can put brackets around the old one, like a tombstone: 1944–2025.

Having known some of the economists and statesmen who put together the old order, I’m in a position to explain what they had in mind and also what went wrong with it. What will replace it is still very much in flux but the outlines are being drawn daily.

Let’s go back in time to Oct. 29, 1929 when the stock market crashed. There was panic in the air and great confusion about what to do and what not to do. However, absent any serious action by government, the financial markets began to recover over six months, even as downward price pressure on commodities began to show.

Congress responded with a very large increase in tariffs. The reason was partially a holdover from what had happened two decades earlier. The income tax had replaced reliance on tariff revenue, and many members of Congress had their doubts about this change. Indeed, resentment against the income tax was growing. Reverting to tariffs and away from a drive to free trade seemed like a possibility.

Many economists at the time warned about this tariff act. The concern was that this would shatter relationships with foreign markets when they were most fragile. The entire financial and industrial world at the time, including many small farmers, were concerned that this action was ill-advised. There was no love for the income tax but bringing back the tariff was deeply unpopular within professional circles.

The day that President Herbert Hoover signed the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act was June 17, 1930. That very day, the stock market stopped its trajectory toward recovery and reversed. Over the course of the several weeks surrounding this act, financial markets fell fully 20 percent. Lacking another explanation, all eyes turned toward the tariff bill as the cause. A few years later, those tariffs started to fall.

This prompted two huge commitments on the part of the upper echelon of opinion makers, economists, and statesmen. They blamed the decline on the tariff, deploying the crude analytical tool “After this, therefore, because of this.” Therefore, first, they committed themselves to a long-term plan to restore the downward trajectory of tariffs. Second, they decided to remove discretion over tariffs from Congress and put it entirely in the hands of the executive.

That’s where matters stood as the Depression went on and on and economic conditions continued to decay. The New Deal did not work to end the economic crisis, despite what they say. Even as the nation marched forward to yet another war, the economic problems persisted.

After the war, the forces for freer trade and against tariffs got their chance. The Bretton Woods agreement of 1944 was all-encompassing: finance, monetary rules, and trade. The trade piece of this was to be the International Trade Organization but it was never ratified. Instead, we got the much milder General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade. As a separate agreement, a new version of the gold standard was revived. In the new iterations, nations would stop promising domestic convertibility of money. Rather, accounts between nations would be settled by physical shipments of gold.

This was called the gold-exchange standard. It established dollar supremacy for the main parts of the world economy. There was always a problem with the plan, one known from the start. Nations using the same monetary standard also need to coordinate fiscal and monetary policies, a scheme that was impossible to deploy among all sovereign nations. A second problem is that without such settlements, wages and business costs across nations could remain permanently divergent, giving exporting nations an advantage over importing ones. With the dollar as the world standard, the United States stood to lose all manufacturing advantages should the agreement ever break down.

By the late 1960s, with huge pressures from war and welfare piling up in all nations, the Bretton Woods agreement did indeed break down. The United States became a net importer of goods, meaning that its outward gold shipments would only increase, depleting stockpiles that secured the soundness of the currency. Financial managers, bankers, and economic planners were powerless to stop this simply because the international agreement required that international accounts be settled in gold.

President Richard Nixon (2nd-L) poses at the White House in Washington, with four government officials he named as his economic "Quadriad" on Jan. 23, 1969. (L-R) Chairman William M. Chesney Martin Jr., of the Federal Reserve Board; Nixon; Secretary of the Treasury David M. Kennedy; Budget Director Robert Mayor and Chairman Paul McCracken of the Council of Economic Advisers. AP Photo/ Harvey Georges

Richard Nixon was the president who had to deal with the crisis once the gold outflows became near terminal. On Aug. 15, 1971, Nixon broke the whole international monetary order by suspending gold convertibility. The United States would no longer ship its gold in exchange for goods. This move shocked the world. Improvising, a new agreement was reached 18 months later. With the Smithsonian Agreement, a new global system of fiat money was born. There would be a market for currencies to trade against each other but with absolutely no tether to gold.

The dollar retained its global supremacy. Any economist schooled in both trade theory and monetary theory (fewer and fewer are) could have predicted what would happen. The U.S. industrial base would be gradually dismantled as nations discovered how their lesser-valued currencies gave them an advantage as exporters. The United States would retain its exporter status on natural resources but manufacturing was surely doomed.

It was also easily predictable that the United States would begin running trade deficits with essentially everyone because the market for dollars was international and settlement was no longer a necessary feature of the system. Japan and then China figured out the new metrics of international trade, and policymakers sat by and watched with astonishment how one American industry after another evaporated: pianos, watches, household electronics, apparel, textiles, steel, cars, tools, ships, and on it goes.

The math of the situation made this inevitable. International trade in the days of the gold standard tended to yield what David Ricardo called the Law of One Price. Gold settlement equilibrated prices and wages internationally in the same way they did domestically. With the Smithsonian Agreement, the disequilibration would be permanent and further worsening to the disadvantage of the country hosting the world’s most valuable and most-used currency.

It should have been obvious that such a situation was not sustainable. It was Donald Trump who called it out alongside his suggested remedy of old-world tariffs. The theory was that by adding an import tax, the manufacturing disadvantage of the dominant nation would be remedied—a prescription that had never been deployed before simply because these conditions have never before prevailed.

The architects of the Bretton Woods system are today likely rolling in their graves to see the global system of trading revert to walled gardens of tariffs, zones, and regional supply lines, alongside the inevitable tensions that such a system produces. But keep in mind: the system they set up could result in no other. By attempting to gamify a gold standard without the discipline that comes from domestic convertibility, they made the present world inevitable. That it took 70 years to get here makes it no less part of the logical and political trajectory any intelligent observer could have foreseen.

The fiat money system was the shepherd of the breakdown of world trade, in addition to fueling astonishing levels of leverage, debt, inflation, and financial irresponsibility all around. This sad story points to an eternal truth. You cannot ever trust governments with the production and management of money. When they are not abusing the system to serve themselves, they are mismanaging it to make it untrustworthy for everyone else to use.

“Scientists Use AI to Create a Virus Never Seen Before”

   This is an "atom" like paradigm: The bad side are about as important as the good Expect the best but prepare for the worst!

Via: Daily Mail:

Lab–grown life has taken a major leap forward as scientists use AI to create a new virus that has never been seen before.

The virus, dubbed Evo–?2147, was created by scientists from scratch using new technologies that could revolutionise the course of evolution.

With just 11 genes, compared to the 200,000 in the human genome, this virus is among the simplest forms of life.

However, scientists believe that the same tools could one day create entire living organisms or resurrect long–extinct species.

This artificial virus was specifically created to kill infectious and potentially deadly E. Coli bacteria.

Based on a wild virus known to infect bacteria, scientists used an AI tool called Evo2 to create 285 entirely new viruses from scratch.

While only 16 were able to attack the E. Coli, the most successful were 25 per cent quicker at killing bacteria than the wild variants.

However, previous research has raised concerns that AI–designed pathogens could themselves become a deadly threat to humanity.

Sunday, January 25, 2026

We're f*cked! - From Vibrancy To Vacancy: America's Going, Going Gone!

  This morning the market broke in Tokyo.

  The Yen opened at 154 per dollar which means the end of the carry trade. 

  Gold was at 5,120 due to the fact that absolutely everyone in the world is dumping USD (Good job Donald!) and silver reached 110 per once as the metal is flowing to Shanghai which offers a much better price. This presents a conundrum to the COMEX market in London which will not be able to close its future trades at the end of the month and an even bigger one to JP Morgan which seemingly is the unhappy counterpart of many of these trades at an average price of 54 dollar. This must represent a potential loss of 3 to 400 million dollars, making a huge dent in their tier one capital and therefore rendering the bank insolvent and consequently in need of urgent help from the Central Bank or a market event... 

  No wonder the horsemen of the apocalypse are riding towards Iran!      

  The article below is completely unrelated but a stark reminder that the current debacle did not happen yesterday. It was 50 years in the making since the 1971 floating of the dollar and the reason why the chickens have come home to roost today. 

Authored by Jim Quinn via The Burning Platform blog,

I hate shopping. I hate crowds. I hate malls. I don’t believe I had entered a mall in over a decade, until Monday. My visit to the once vibrant Montgomery Mall in Montgomeryville, PA was a shocking confirmation of what I had been predicting about retail stores since 2008.

Next to the term Dead Mall in the dictionary should be a picture of the current version of the Montgomery Mall. If you need visual proof, here is brief video showing how it is deader than ever.

We didn’t go to the mall to shop. My wife bought me a watch from Macy’s (online purchase) for Christmas. I haven’t worn a watch in over a decade and now that I’m retired, have no need for a watch. So we were going to get a refund and then walk around the mall for some exercise, because the weather outside is bitterly cold. The Mall had three anchor stores: Macy’s, JC Penney, and Sears. The Sears closed in 2020. JC Penney declared Chapter 11 bankruptcy in 2021, but still operates as a zombie like entity on the opposite end of the mall from Macy’s. Macy’s hasn’t declared bankruptcy yet, but their business plan appears to be closing 50 to 100 stores per year, until there are none left.

We arrived at the Macy’s at about 11:00 am on MLK day. Ghost town USA. The few employees we saw outnumbered the customers. A store filled with jewelry, clothes, shoes, and other useless crap had no customers.

It took us ten minutes to find someone who could process a return.

Both Macy’s and JC Penney are clearly in an extend and pretend phase. The entire pitiful mall is pretending to be viable, when it is clearly deceased. What a far cry from its heyday – 1977 until approximately 2007. With three rambunctious boys, my wife spent many days at this mall trying to wear them out. When they were teenagers, I would drop them off on Friday nights so they could cruise around the mall with their friends. Those days are long gone.

The two story Montgomery Mall, with 1.1 million square feet of retail space, was built in 1977 by Kravco. Before smart phones, social media and online ordering, malls were the place to go for shopping mothers and teenagers escaping from their parents clutches. Malls were swarming with people, because they were convenient and accessible. They were the mecca of consumerism, enabled by the all powerful credit card. I have lived in Montgomery County since 1990, with three malls encircling me: The Plymouth Meeting Mall, where my employer’s first store in the U.S. (IKEA) and their headquarters were located; The Montgomery Mall; and the king of all malls in King of Prussia.

At its peak, the Montgomery Mall had over 90 stores/eateries. Major tenants, excluding their anchors, included: H&M, Disney Store, Uniqlo, Boscovs, Tweeter, Dick’s Sporting Goods, Strawbridge’s, and dozens of the usual smaller mall outlets. The bustling food court consisting of Chick-fil-a, McDonalds, Sbarro, Subway, and a Chinese place met all the healthy eating requirements. Yesterday, the number of occupied outlets totaled less than 15. It was a pitiful mixture of dynamite retail juggernauts like Cell Phone Care, Dilshal Halal Cuisine, Montgomery Dental, a pop-up Spirit Halloween store, and a mixture of wireless and jewelry repair stores. I think a store selling Vacancy signs would best suit this nearly dead mall.

The death of this now obsolete mecca of consumerism can be blamed on clueless corporate executives, devious developers, feckless bankers, and technology. The beginning of the downfall can be traced to the acquisition of the mall by Simon Property Group in 2003. These corporate raiders use the legal system to organize their holdings in such a way that they can take on massive leverage, pillage the asset, not repay the debt, and walk away virtually unscathed, like they did in 2021 when the mall was foreclosed upon with a $119 judgment against Simon. Simon Property Group is still a thriving entity, with their stock near an all-time high of $184 per share, because they gate off each of their mall entities so they can go bankrupt and not affect the parent company. Ain’t America great?

The bank sold the stinking, rotting carcass of this beached 1.1 million square foot retail whale to Kohan Retail Investment Group for $55 million in 2021. When you buy a mall for $50 per square foot and still can’t make a profit, you got yourself a dead mall. Kohan has been referred to as “the last owner a mall sees”, investing little in the malls it purchases and allowing mall facilities to deteriorate while trying to sell off out parcels to restaurants and grocery stores. Dead and deteriorating is the correct description of the Montgomery Mall. As we walked around this dank, depressing hulk of cement and glass, my “glass half full” wife suggested they only needed to get a few good tenants to start reviving the mall. I reacted like the clown in Seinfeld when George couldn’t believe he had never heard of Bozo. Malls are either dead or dying. There is no coming back.

I guess I should feel vindicated as I had written dozens of articles about the downfall of retailers and malls since I began writing in 2008, including: Ghost Malls: Coming to Your Town (2008)Extend and Pretend Coming to an End (2012)Available (2013),  Retail Death Rattle Grows Louder (2014)Will Sears Survive Until Christmas (2016). The Covid scamdemic put the final nail in the coffin of the Montgomery Mall, and the rise of Amazon and all online retailing put the coffin in the ground.

By purposely killing malls, they forced more retail online, with only electronic payment as an option. Wait until they institute their CBDCs and then can control your ability to purchase based upon your social credit score. Just observe what is happening in Davos to see your dystopian future. AI will tell you what to buy. Hell, it will buy it for you without asking whether you wanted it at all. No need to think, freedom to choose, or ability to say no.

I see the death of the Montgomery Mall and hundreds of other malls across this land of plenty (of debt) as a metaphor for the imminent death of this American Empire of Debt. The bigger things get, the worse they get. With or without physical malls, credit card debt has risen from $600 billion in 2000 to almost $1.3 trillion today. Meanwhile, the national debt grew from $5.6 trillion in 2000 to $38.5 trillion today. The average American goes deeper into debt each day, as the American empire adds $5 billion of debt each day.

Our cities and infrastructure deteriorate and decay (just like these dead malls), while financial wizards think up new ways to rape and pillage what remains of the national treasury. It’s all a Potemkin facade, propped up by never ending issuance of debt, ceaseless propaganda, increasing surveillance state authoritarianism, and no way out. Mall owners (with their bank partners) have been extending and pretending for over two decades. Our country has been doing the same since 2008. But, eventually the jig is up. The current faux foreign conflicts are designed by the powers that be to distract from the intractable domestic financial disaster coming down the track.

When Dick’s closed up shop in the Montgomery Mall last year, they replaced themselves with a perfectly named outlet which describes the mall and our country.

 

The AI Factor Behind Trump's Power Play On China's Oil Suppliers

   As we have discussed many times in the past, war with Venezuela and Iran are not just about oil but about the control of resources and the more global "war with China". 

   The control of the oil market has always been at the top of the list for the US which understands that it can only stay a global empire as long as it controls oil. This was already the case for Iraq, which had clearly nothing to do with 9/11, so they invented "weapons of mass destruction" about which later Bush the second, laughed looking at his pocket: "Not here!" They perfectly knew there were none! And it was also the case with Libya which was partitioned soon after. 

   The only difference with the current tensions is that the Trump Administration is more brazen and that Europe has completely lost its voice while wasting its weapons in Ukraine and its energy on the war against climate change. The most imbecile policy since the war against witches in the Middle Ages. Amazingly they truly believed their own rhetoric about "The end of history" and the advent of Globalization. 

   So where do we go from here? Clearly, the US cannot be appeased. They aim for dominance so you either abdicate all pretense to independence and bend the knee like Europe or you fight back although fighting back will of course not be an easy or riskless option.     

   Venezuela was too far but Iran is vital for China. Even if it wasn't, it is obvious that soon after, first Iraq, then Saudi Arabia would be likewise prevented to deal with China, peacefully or not. This is why, unavoidably tensions will rise in the coming months. The US will try to find a pretext to attack and if it doesn't work will probably fall back to the well oiled method of "false flag! They have proved in Venezuela that they have incapacitating weapons which will most certainly be used again against Iran when needed. 

   Since the goal is now unambiguously to contain China, the stakes will rise until the pressure becomes unbearable. Let's not forget that this was the method used in 1940 and 1941 against the Empire of Japan which by strangling the country precipitated Pearl Harbor and World War 2 in the Pacific. 

   Trump says that he doesn't want war, but the recent past proves that he cannot resist the pressure of his "donors" nor does he control the apparatus of the state so that the deep state and the Neo-cons can do as they please and in the end, he will gladly endorse whatever they decide.

   And then more ominously, let's not forget that the financial clock is ticking and approaching midnight when suddenly all the trillions of fiat money will revert to their intrinsic value which is that of paper. To say that the clouds are gathering for a mighty storm may be an understatement.   

The AI Factor Behind Trump's Power Play On China's Oil Suppliers

by James Gorrie via The Epoch Times,

Why is it so important to the Trump administration to take control of Venezuela and encourage the people of Iran to overthrow the Islamic regime?

The link between the two is obviously oil.

Of course, the strategy in Venezuela involves oil, but also includes restricting China’s influence in the Western Hemisphere, undermining the BRICS currency, and shutting down Venezuelan drug trafficking, illegal immigration, and other nastiness.

Same for Iran regarding oil. Both are important energy suppliers to China, but especially Iran.

But it’s not the whole picture. President Donald Trump’s broader strategy is about restricting China’s access to cheap, reliable oil at the exact moment it needs that energy to compete with the United States in artificial intelligence (AI).

Venezuela Was a Great Deal—For China

Looking back, Venezuela was as an unbelievable good deal for China. Sanctioned by the United States and shunned by much of the West, Caracas sold heavily discounted crude to Chinese refiners willing to tolerate risk. It wasn’t glamorous oil—but it was dependable and cheap. Venezuela provided about five percent of China’s annual oil needs; not a huge figure, but enough to matter.

Trump’s decision to blockade Venezuelan oil exports and assert control over the country’s oil infrastructure effectively ends that dream deal. With U.S. control, China loses a meaningful slice of supply, about four percent, that helped buffer it from global price swings.

That matters more than it sounds.

As the world’s largest oil importer, even small disruptions force Beijing to scramble for alternatives—often at higher prices, longer shipping distances, or greater political cost.

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi (R) speaks during a meeting with Venezuelan Foreign Minister Jorge Arreaza (L) at the Diaoyutai State Guest House in Beijing on Jan. 16, 2020. Ng Han Guan-Pool/Getty Images

Iran: The Bigger Pressure Point

But the Venezuelan oil flow to China is small potatoes compared to that of Iran.

China is Iran’s largest oil customer, buying the vast majority of Tehran’s exported crude, up to 80 percent, often at steep discounts, and is the life blood to China’s independent refineries, its petrochemical sector, and its power-hungry industrial base. In other words, Iranian oil is critical to China’s continued economic and technological growth.

That fact puts Trump’s renewed pressure on the ruling Islamic regime in Iran in a different light. The tariffs, sanctions enforcement, secondary penalties, and encouraging rebellion by the Iranian people is more than just punishment for Tehran. It puts China in an energy bind.

Should Beijing keep buying Iranian oil and risk broader economic retaliation, or comply and lose one of the cheapest energy sources available?

Either way, Beijing pays more for less reliable oil supplies.

Why Oil Still Matters in the AI Age

There’s a popular myth that AI runs on “clean” digital infrastructure—clouds, algorithms, and software. In reality, AI runs on electricity, and electricity is still largely generated through nuclear power and fossil fuels, i.e., oil, natural gas, and coal. Training large AI models requires staggering amounts of energy, and a single hyperscale data center can consume as much electricity as a mid-sized city. Multiply that by hundreds of facilities, and energy, not chips, becomes the real bottleneck in the AI race.

Beijing understands this. That’s why it continues to approve a record number of new coal plants, expand its gas infrastructure, and secure long-term oil contracts—even while leading the world in renewables.

What’s more, China knows that oil and gas help stabilize power grids that support data centers. Intermittent renewables alone can’t guarantee the always-on power that AI systems require. Plus, AI hardware depends on petroleum-based products—plastics, resins, coolants, lubricants, and advanced composites used in chips, servers, and cooling systems. Oil is a non-negotiable industrial input.

Finally, oil is relatively inexpensive, lowering the cost of training models, which compounds quickly, because whichever nation can train more models faster and cheaper leads the AI race.

Cutting China off from discounted oil doesn’t just raise fuel prices, it raises the cost of intelligence itself.

A worker rides bicycle at an oil refinery of China’s Sinopec in Wuhan, a city in China’s Hubei Province on May 10, 2011. STR/AFP/Getty Images

Energy as a Hidden AI Weapon

This is where Trump’s strategy becomes clearer.

The United States doesn’t need to out-build China in data centers if it can out-price and out-power them. America has abundant domestic oil and gas, expanding LNG exports, and deep capital markets to finance new, energy-hungry infrastructure.

China, by contrast, is vulnerable. It imports over 70 percent of its oil. Much of that comes from politically unstable or sanctioned states. Disrupt those flows, and China’s AI ambitions become more expensive, more fragile, and more dependent on geopolitical goodwill.

In that sense, oil becomes a second-order AI weapon, in that it is not something that directly attacks technology, but something that quietly determines who can afford to scale it.

What This Means for the Global Balance

Yes, Russia still matters in this equation—but more as a background variable than the main event. Lower oil prices and tighter markets can squeeze Moscow’s revenues and complicate its war financing. China’s increased reliance on Russian crude also deepens a partnership that carries long-term risks for Beijing.

But the real target of Trump’s energy denial strategy isn’t Russia. It’s China’s momentum.

Trump’s energy foreign policy is about slowing China’s rise without firing a shot—forcing it to spend more, plan more cautiously, and accept structural disadvantages in the most important technological competition of the century.

The Bigger Picture

AI dominance won’t be decided by who writes the best code. It will be decided by who can power the most machines, the longest, at the lowest cost.

By squeezing Venezuela, pressuring Iran, and reshaping global oil flows, Trump is betting that energy strategy, not algorithms, will decide the winner in the AI-driven economy.

And if that bet is right, the future of AI may be decided not in Silicon Valley or Shenzhen, but in oil fields, shipping lanes, and sanctions that most people aren’t paying attention to.

Epstein, Western Decline, & The Moral Collapse Of The Elites

   So that's what they were really hiding! The rot does indeed go much deeper than a few pedophiles exchanging voluntary girls in a trop...