Day 3 of the war in Iran and the direction is already clear: The US is going to lose the war. As all the strategists warned, there was no snowball chance in hell that a air power only, bombing kind of war would bend a land country such as Iran. The killing of the Ayatollah, who was 86 and not hiding, conversely galvanized the country, with even the opponents now mostly supporting their country.
On the war front, Iran is being battered. But it is a big country which has been preparing for years and which can therefore absorb the shock and fight another day. When the war started, the Trump administration announced that the war would last a few days. Now they say that it will last 4 to 5 weeks. Can the US sustain 5 weeks of intense combat with planes being shot down and boats being sink?
And even if it can, the Iranians did change their strategy this time, and not only attacked Israel but also the treacherous monarchies who officially were neutral but in the background pushed the US towards war.
Trump was consequently convinced by Israel, the Neocons and the same Monarchies that it would be an easy fight. It looks more and more like, as we predicted, this won't be the case. This time, the market didn't over-react, but this may change as the conflict spreads and expands.
In the end, the one who will want a deal is Trump. The Iranians, tired of the treachery of his administration will not cave in so easily this time and the final price could be much higher. This is how big wars start.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w3F5HY8K5vM
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