Japan: the need to reinvent an older society that works!

Over the last 30 years, Japan has transformed itself into a geriatric country with  one of the lowest birth rate in the world at 1.45 children per woman and the highest average age (47) on par with Germany.

At the same time, the country has seen its economic growth stagnate. It is actually a miracle that it is not negative yet considering the fact that its population is now decreasing by over 300,000 persons a year. (The main reason is that the working population between 25 and 65 is still growing slightly.)

Whatever the government does, the trend is not reversible. Free education as was just announced and better care for children cannot compensate for cramped urban accommodations and a low marriage rate. The slight percentage increase we have seen over the last 10 years from 1.23 to 1.45 cannot hide the falling birth rate in absolute numbers.

Most economists often make erroneous previsions based on faulty long term linear projections. But for population, long term linear projections work. In 10 years the baby boomers generation will be on its way out and immigration can't replace it fast enough. The Japanese population will therefore stand at 102 millions in 2050, 20% below its current level, give or take a few millions.

Japan needs a quick and simple solution!

Fortunately, one is available:

Redefining old age!

When the retirement age was decided in the late 19C by Bismark in Germany, it was fixed at 65 as that was considered a ripe old age with very few people living much beyond as this was just above the average life span at the time.

Move forward 150 years to Japan and the picture could not be more different.

Old people everywhere! In the cities, in the countryside, in offices and factories. Driving tractors and buses. But more than anything, young old people, full of energy and strength who simply forgot to grow old! Will they ever retire? Should they?

As all social issues, this is a sensitive subject and it is very unlikely that anything will change short of a major shock to the system. But this is exactly what is coming Japan's way. The sharp drop in fertility will soon be followed by a carving out of the working population, just as the number of retires explodes together with budget deficits. Something must give. 

Fortunately, as we have seen, many "old" people are not old anymore. Marketeers have long noticed that young retirees between the age of 65 and 75 tends to be far healthier and more active than their forebears. More importantly, many are still working, maintaining a higher income as well as a more active lifestyle.

This is not a fluke, it is a trend. A trend that will soon redefine not only aging but working conditions.

Older people do not need to work full time, since usually they already have accumulated capital, nor are they in charge of children anymore. They also often have optimized their living conditions and expenses, prioritizing free time over income.

All developed countries are facing this issue but none as acutely as Japan. 

Interestingly, putting older people back to work is not exactly a new idea. My great grand mother in the Jura mountains straddling France and Switzerland spent the last 20 years of her life to the age of 93 with a caretaker who was 20 years younger and took good care of her, earning a stipend and free lodging in the process. This was common practice then before pensions became ubiquitous.

Japan, especially in the countryside where the problem of aging is most acute has an almost infinite number of available lodging, often approaching 20% of all dwelling in some remote areas. (A little over 10% for the country on average.) This will not revive the countryside but any mechanism which increase the flow of money to villages and remote cities, especially along the coast of the Sea of Japan will be welcome. 

Robots may or may not offer a long term solution. Some people are optimistic on this subject, I am not. Because  what older people need most is human care which is exactly what robots are the least capable of. This will change but not anytime soon and most certainly not at a price most people can afford.

In the meantime, redefining old age will therefore look more and more attractive as a solution. A "sexy" marketing name will help: Young senior or active senior? One last step before aging is definitively made obsolete?