As reported earlier, the feedback we are receiving from China is very murky and difficult to interpret.
What we know so far is that the Wuhan virus also called nCoV, it's scientific name, is very contagious although it's real R0 (R naugh) is still difficult to calculate. Most estimates currently are between 3 and 4 which would be relatively high compared to other virus. (see below)
In reality, these numbers are statistical numbers with little actual meaning related to the future since they can vary wildly over time. A contagion may start with a high R0 to see this number later dwindle as measures are taken to isolate sick persons and contain the outbreak. More important to the global spread of the virus is how it propagates between people. A long lasting virus like HIV which propagates through sexual transmission will see a slow be steady propagation ending up with a relatively high R0 whereas the flu with a lower R0 will spread much faster through the air in spite of its low rate of transmission. The worst virus known is the measles virus with a maximum R0 of 18 which can linger in the air for over 2 hours. In between, you find Zika which transmits through mosquitoes and nCoV which transmits through the air like the flu.
The second important factor is the death rate. As of today, Tuesday, February 4th the death toll is 425 but this number is highly unreliable. Although the Chinese authorities have done some efforts to become more transparent lately, initially the dead were not reported and it is still likely that many deaths are voluntarily or not misdiagnosed as other causes such as pneumonia. (In many cases it may just be because there is no diagnostic kit available!)
If we compare the fatality rate of the Corona virus to other virus, it looks relatively low at about 2%. It is still low if you double this number which may be a good estimate. (But in that case, we can also double the number of cases and end up with a similar 2% fatality rate.)
This has been used as an argument against the virus being a bio weapon since such a weapon would by definition have a high fatality rate. But in reality, the fatality rate is just one factor among many. Another is the number of serious cases necessitating intensive care which at over 25% is very high.
The most damning accusation to date that the virus may be a weapon came from a team based in India which asserted that studying the genome of the virus they found 4 insertions which had similarities to the genome of HIV. In this respect, it is important to note that the research was not peer reviewed and has since been retracted. Other scientists have noted that these codons are not specific to HIV and can be found in many virus including other Corona Virus so not a proof as such.
This said, it is widely reported that patients with Corona Virus respond well to HIV treatments... Again, not conclusive but certainly an interesting factor to take into consideration.
More interestingly, running the Blast statistical software on the genome of nCoV shows that 89% of this genome comes from the NG strand of SARS with some nucleotides from the KY strand which code the S-protein. The S-protein being the part of the genome which codes what binds the virus to human tissues in the lung. Reason why is appears as pneumonia and pass on so easily from people to people.
(source)
All this remains to be proven.
In the scientific literature, it is obvious that conclusions are closely linked to the genetic models as well as the assumptions you are using and that no consensus has yet been found on the origin of the virus beyond the fact that it is originally, probably, a bat virus which has mutated significantly.
So the original question can now be rephrased:
Knowing that the outbreak happened in Wuhan, the only city with a P4 level laboratory in China, that the virus has characteristics from different strands of the Corona Virus which makes it especially virulent and contagious, and that the virus seems to be able to propagate during the incubation phase when people show no signs of being sick, a relatively rare characteristics, could this virus be a bio weapon?
Virus do evolve naturally. This is why, more or less every year we have a new strand of the flu. They are also known in some instance to exchange part of their genome with other virus. To answer more precisely the question, we now need to understand better the genome of nCoV. (The fact that the genome has been decoded does not mean that we understand the details of its origin and evolution yet.)
Many teams around the world are working on this subject so the answer should be clear within a month.
Still, although the damning evidences may be circumstantial, it is clear that China has spent a month from mid December to mid January trying to silence doctors who were warning us about the outbreak. Then when the scale of the pandemic became clear, the country took extreme measures by isolating a whole city, then a whole province while reassuring people that everything was under control and not as bad as anecdotal reporting suggested. Sure enough, it was worse!
The suppression of information and obfuscation is in the DNA of the Chinese government. This alone does not prove fool-play. Still altogether, all these factors are difficult to explain as pure coincidence. Statistics allow unlikely events to occur but beyond a threshold that the Corona Virus seems suspiciously close to, a human helping hand becomes the simpler explanation. So although it cannot be said yet that the nCoV virus is a bio weapon, the assertion cannot be dismissed out of hand so easily either. The possibility that Chinese scientists where indeed working on dangerous pathogens with the aim to eventually transform them into weapon as some like Dr Francis Boyle have accused them of doing although difficult to prove is real.
