Sunday, October 12, 2025

The Recent Sino-US Dispute Over Taiwan's Post-WWII Status Is A Sign Of The Times

    Who is right in the case of Taiwan? 

    It's complicated.

   The island was originally not as Chinese as advertised,  then spent a rather long time under Japanese administration which was less brutal and resented than in Korea. But it is only when the Nationalists fled there in 1949 that suddenly Taiwan became truly Chinese. So the case to decide if Taiwan should be Chinese or independent is at the very least an open discussion. 

  Not so for the South China Sea where the 9 dash map is as spurious as can be. Let's remember that except for a very short while, the Chinese empire was a closed and continental one with almost no maritime trade with the outside world and no naval power. 

   This said, France or the US have no more rights over Tahiti or Hawaii than China has over the Spratly Islands between Vietnam and The Philippines.   

   There is no good or right side in such discussions. It is just a matter of raw power.  

Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,

The US’ de facto embassy in Taiwan emailed Reuters a statement in mid-September criticizing China’s reliance on WWII-era agreements in support of its claim to the island.

They declared that “China intentionally mischaracterises World War Two-era documents, including the Cairo Declaration, the Potsdam Proclamation, and the Treaty of San Francisco, to try to support its coercive campaign to subjugate Taiwan.” The latest twist in this dispute coincides with the 80th anniversary of Japan’s defeat.

For background, the 1943 Cairo Declaration states that Formosa (Taiwan’s colonial-era name) will be returned to the Republic of China (ROC); the 1945 Potsdam Declaration references Cairo and limits the geographic scope of Japanese sovereignty without mentioning Formosa; and the 1951 Treaty of San Francisco resulted in Japan officially renouncing its claim to Formosa while leaving its status unresolved. The ROC’s and People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) interpretations thereof will now be briefly summarized.

The Taiwan-based ROC considers itself to be China’s only legitimate government since it represents the League of Nations-recognized ROC despite that erstwhile organization’s UN successor expelling them in 1971 and replacing their permanent Security Council seat with the PRC. It thus interprets the Cairo and Potsdam Declarations as confirming its control over Taiwan while the PRC relies on the aforesaid decision, which recognized it as the only legitimate representative of China, to legally claim Taiwan.

The significance of the US’ de facto embassy in Taiwan criticizing China’s (formally the PRC’s) reliance on these WWII-era agreements (Reuters reminded readers that it considers the Treaty of San Francisco “illegal and invalid” since it wasn’t party to it) is that it’s a sign of the times. As the New Cold War shifts from the US prioritizing Russia’s containment in Europe to China’s containment in Asia, so too is the trend of the US gradually revising the results of WWII in order to give it an edge on that front too.

Russia believes that Germany’s remilitarization, Finland’s membership in NATO, and the push for neutral Austria to follow, all of which are backed by the US, prove that the US is gradually revising the results of WWII. Likewise, so too does it believe that Japan’s US-backed remilitarization is proof of the same, the view of which China shares as well. It was therefore predictable that the US would one day start to more assertively challenge China’s reliance on WWII-era agreements in support of its claim to Taiwan.

The world order always changes as history attests, but in these instances, associated processes are being weaponized by the US for containment purposes vis-à-vis what can nowadays be described as the Sino-Russo Entente in order to justify more aggressive policies against them on false legal bases. Permanent UNSC members Russia and China obviously wouldn’t agree to the abovementioned revisions, hence why the US is backing them unilaterally, which further accelerates the collapse of the post-WWII order.

The ideal scenario as envisaged in the UN Charter is for the UNSC to jointly pioneer a controlled transition to a new order that preserves the balance of power between them so as to reduce the risk of conflict during this period. That became impossible after the US’ unilateral withdrawal from arms control pacts with Russia dismantled the global security architecture, however, which inevitably led to it gradually revising the results of WWII and dangerously raising tensions with the Sino-Russo Entente.

Friday, October 10, 2025

Stocks Slammed, VIX Spikes As Trump Threatens "Massive Increase" In Tariffs On Chinese Goods

  "Hostility coming out of nowhere from China on the trade front?" Really? What about 6 months of non-stop confrontation, tariffs and restrictions from the Trump administration? 

  When finally China says "Enough!", they are being "confrontational!? Hard to be more hegemonic than that. Well, except of course in the case of Venezuela where just "not liking" the President is ground for hostile and possibly military intervention.      

 Some people expected Trump foreign policy to be different with significant disengagements around the world. The exact opposite is happening. (as had been the case in history at similar times, in every single case!)  
 
 It looks like the "peace president" is ready to fire a real economic shot at China. Expect massive retaliation and impact on the dollar soon.  Interesting times ahead?
 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pWieCsMcHcM

US equity markets are tumbling following comments from President Trump threatening “a massive increase of tariffs on Chinese products” being imported into the US, accusing China of becoming “hostile” due to their export controls

Additionally, Trump said he saw “no reason” to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping

This immediately prompted a wave of selling pressure across all equity indices with Nasdaq down over 2%...

But, US rare earth companies popped...

Treasuries are bid...

VIX spiked above 21...

Trump took to social media and penned a lengthy, angry note (emphasis ours):

Some very strange things are happening in China! They are becoming very hostile, and sending letters to Countries throughout the World, that they want to impose Export Controls on each and every element of production having to do with Rare Earths, and virtually anything else they can think of, even if it’s not manufactured in China. Nobody has ever seen anything like this but, essentially, it would “clog” the Markets, and make life difficult for virtually every Country in the World, especially for China.

We have been contacted by other Countries who are extremely angry at this great Trade hostility, which came out of nowhere. Our relationship with China over the past six months has been a very good one, thereby making this move on Trade an even more surprising one. I have always felt that they’ve been lying in wait, and now, as usual, I have been proven right!

There is no way that China should be allowed to hold the World “captive,” but that seems to have been their plan for quite some time, starting with the “Magnets” and, other Elements that they have quietly amassed into somewhat of a Monopoly position, a rather sinister and hostile move, to say the least.

But the U.S. has Monopoly positions also, much stronger and more far reaching than China’s. I have just not chosen to use them, there was never a reason for me to do so — UNTIL NOW! The letter they sent is many pages long, and details, with great specificity, each and every Element that they want to withhold from other Nations. Things that were routine are no longer routine at all.

I have not spoken to President Xi because there was no reason to do so. This was a real surprise, not only to me, but to all the Leaders of the Free World.

I was to meet President Xi in two weeks, at APEC, in South Korea, but now there seems to be no reason to do so.

The Chinese letters were especially inappropriate in that this was the Day that, after three thousand years of bedlam and fighting, there is PEACE IN THE MIDDLE EAST. I wonder if that timing was coincidental? Dependent on what China says about the hostile “order” that they have just put out, I will be forced, as President of the United States of America, to financially counter their move. For every Element that they have been able to monopolize, we have two. I never thought it would come to this but perhaps, as with all things, the time has come.

Ultimately, though potentially painful, it will be a very good thing, in the end, for the U.S.A.

One of the Policies that we are calculating at this moment is a massive increase of Tariffs on Chinese products coming into the United States of America. There are many other countermeasures that are, likewise, under serious consideration. Thank you for your attention to this matter!

Trump's comments come after China slapped new port fees on US ships and started an antitrust investigation into Qualcomm, following fresh moves to restrict the flow of rare earths needed for numerous consumer products.

How long before the TACO trade kicks in?

Inflection Point: US Government Shutdown And Strange Economic Signals

  Another food for thought article. Was Trump allowed to win in order to take the blame of the coming depression? The Hoover of the 21st Century? Maybe so but let's remember that complex planning seldom survives confrontation with reality. 

Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.us,

The US economy has been experiencing what I would call a form of “stasis” for the last year; it’s floating in the deep ocean, waiting for a catalyst. Either it finds dry land soon, or another anchor is added and it sinks into the abyss.

In my article “Trump’s Return: Get Ready For Chaos To Be Unleashed And Blamed On You”, published in July of 2024, I predicted that Biden would step out of the presidential race and that Trump would win the election. I noted that:

It was perhaps one of the biggest blunders the globalists have ever faced. The WEF’s Klaus Schwab, Dr. Evil himself, has faded into the background and retired as executive chairman. The big play for medical tyranny bombed. Now what to do?

Is it a mistake that the establishment has continued to stick with Biden despite his delirium? Or, did they send Biden into that first debate knowing exactly how bad it was going to go? Is this a ploy designed to complete the Herbert Hoover scenario?

This year, Trump hinted in an interview with Fox Business that he “does not want to become the next Herbert Hoover” inheriting a time bomb economy from Biden. Biden argued in response that Trump was ALREADY like Herbert Hoover because of the jobs lost during covid.

This is, of course, a false claim. But the narrative is everywhere: “Trump will oversee a crash in America similar to 1929…”

There were two ways to interpret the election outcome:

1) The globalists put all their eggs in the Biden basket (and the covid basket) and made a detrimental error. Leaving the White House open to be taken by conservatives even with possible election manipulation.

2) The globalists accept that they failed to turn the pandemic into the permanent medical tyranny they wanted, but they’ve moved on to Plan B. They are now setting up conservatives and populists to take the fall for an economic crisis they have been brewing in the background for years.

When it comes to the second scenario, it’s important to understand that it is impossible to reform the current economic system without triggering a rapidly escalating crisis. Libertarians have been chanting the motto “End The Fed” for decades, but I don’t think many of them grasp what this would actually entail. Any change in the status of the Federal Reserve means financial chaos.

The globalist system is set up to self destruct if it is tampered with. This is an unavoidable fact.

We are already seeing the consequences of this with Trump’s closing of USAID and his implementation of tariffs. The effects are not as visible in America, but around the globe the throttling of US funding to foreign markets is causing a panic. It’s astonishing to see just how dependent the rest of the world has been on US taxpayer dollars and the steady fiat created by the Federal Reserve.

Europe, for example, is scrambling to fill their security void with proclamations of increased military spending. Europeans often criticize Americans for not supporting socialist welfare programs like universal healthcare. What they don’t mention (or are too ignorant to realize) is that THEIR socialist programs have been entirely dependent on US defense spending.

We make NATO possible with hundreds of billions of dollars in military support so that Europeans can have their free healthcare while they sneer at us. Canadian officials across the border have admitted that if they increase their NATO spending to just 2% of GDP as they are supposed to do, their social welfare programs might take a hit.

This is only one example of the kind of instability that occurs when the US stops paying for the rest of the planet. We have seen numerous third world governments show up (like South Africa), demanding continued handouts from the US. They don’t ask, they EXPECT. They have been enjoying our money for so long they now feel entitled to it. That is the globalist system we are currently living in.

So, you can imagine what might happen if all that America cash is cut off at the source due to a government shutdown. Generally, a government shutdown affects foreign aid by halting new obligations and disbursements of funds .

While some aid can continue, the impact depends on several factors, including the type of program, existing contracts, and the administration’s policies. We have no idea at this stage how long the shutdown will last, but foreign governments and outside contracts must be sweating bullets. Trump has even argued that he can use the shutdown to cut programs and make changes he would not be able to accomplish otherwise (Senate Republicans have already used a new rule to confirm over 100 Trump nominees while the Dems are throwing their shutdown tantrum).

This isn’t a terrible idea. In fact, I applaud him for it. Most of Trump’s policies are exactly what we need to reverse our disastrous course, but is it too late?

I have to acknowledge the fact that the system won’t tolerate reform without negative feedback. Loss of dollar circulation is going to put pressure on foreign banks to look for alternatives. I’m not talking about a BRICS currency because the BRICS aren’t capable of replacing the dollar. What I’m talking about is globalist institutions like the IMF and BIS which have both been quietly working on a digital (CBDC) dollar alternative for a number of years.

Meanwhile, the dollars that don’t spread out overseas will come back to the US, and we are already experiencing persistent stagflationary conditions. Price increases have slowed since Biden was in office, but we certainly haven’t seen costs in necessities go down much.

I would point out that the housing market (a canary in the coal mine) has been dealing with a rapid decrease in sales since the pandemic. Yet, the insane prices refuse to decline to meet the falling market demand. We are also seeing this in groceries, gas prices, electricity, auto prices, etc. Demand is plunging, but prices will not adjust. Retail sales remain high, but only because Americans are spending a lot more money for a lot less stuff.

Gold and silver are also trying to tell us something. Despite growing stagnation, metals are skyrocketing in price. Silver prices have exploded by 50% since last year. Gold is over $4000 an ounce.

This is good news for those of us holding onto PMs, but it is also a signal that inflation is not going anywhere. One could argue that metals are merely catching up to where they should be in the face of suppression by banks, but I don’t think this explains it.

More likely, dollars are coming home to roost in the US and this is going to keep prices high even in the face of a deflationary event (recession). That’s not good in the short term. Like I said, globalism is designed to punish anyone that tampers with it.

And then there’s the central bank. Concerns are rising in the mainstream that Trump may use recent events as a means to “reimagine” the Federal Reserve, thus ending its much touted “independence”. The Fed is, of course, not independent – It answers to international banks, as noted by globalist insider Carroll Quigley in his book “Tragedy And Hope”. This is the structure that was put in place over a century ago to help finance the globalist edifice through fiat.

By interfering with the Fed, economic blowback is assured.

This is not to say that nothing should be done; the entire globalist empire must be erased eventually. But it’s naive to think that we can do it without a historic crisis. Even basic government spending cuts will trigger instability – Upending the Fed would be a disaster. And guess who gets the blame for that disaster? You, me, and anyone who backed the populist movement.

So be ready for the international ire and be ready to fight, because they’re going to try to crucify us when the anti-conservative and anti-nationalist narrative drops. I have always said that Democrats would never allow a shutdown on their watch. They would only ever support a shutdown while conservatives are in power.

But maybe the shutdown will end quickly. The debate largely depends on the Democrat Party’s insistence that illegal immigrants in the US under pretenses of asylum are “documented”. This means they get access to ACA coverage (free healthcare). This is an indefensible position and they won’t be able to exploit it for long.

That said, the political left has proven over and over again that they want the country to burn, and if they can do it while Republicans take the blame, all the better. I worry that a budget agreement is not meant to happen and that a crisis is meant to fester. Is this the “inflection point” many of us in the alternative economic media have been expecting?

If so, then it is happening sooner that I thought it would. I figured we would have at least two years of Trump’s second term before the other shoe dropped. But the speed at which leftist groups and the globalists are accelerating their political violence suggests an economic reckoning is around the corner. Every major crash event in history tends to coincide with civil unrest and war, and the pattern appears to be repeating.

 

Privacy In Europe

   As energy nonsense add to strategic defeat in Ukraine and financial meltdown, tensions are rising in all the main countries of Europe: France, UK and Germany. Consequently, Durov, the founder of Telegram reminded us yesterday that free speech is on suspended animation in Europe and may soon plunge into a deeper coma. 

  With the appointment of Trump and the current reorientation of American goals, the globalists are in retreat, banking their survival on Europe as their last bastion of power, the European institution giving minimum say to voters who otherwise would have long ago said goodbye to their policies. 

  The pressure rise but the dam is holding so better break the gauges that drain the excess pain which is slowly turning to anger as in the UK. Can this work? Or rather has this ever worked in history?    

  Germany is de-industrializing, France has no budget and the UK according to recent polls is f*cked. Can it get worse? If what we are hearing is the noise of the waterfall, very much so and rather son now!  

Via Remix News,

After Germany dropped its long-standing opposition to EU chat control, leading encrypted messenger Signal issued a dire warning about privacy in Europe, with the post going viral.

However, now European parties such as the Alternative for Germany (AfD) have joined in the criticism, with the party warning just before the EU Council vote that so-called “chat control” could end privacy entirely in Europe.

The protest from the AfD comes after Signal threatened to pull out entirely from Europe if the EU implements its surveillance plans. If Signal went through with such a move, it would be a major black eye for the EU, putting it on par with surveillance states like China.

Ruben Rupp, the digital policy spokesperson for the AfD parliamentary group, warned against “total surveillance under the guise of child protection.”

“What is being sold here is, in reality, a frontal attack on the fundamental rights of all citizens. Such a measure places the entire population under general suspicion,” Rupp said. He added that millions of innocent users would be spied on, and instead, the focus should be on harsher punishments for those who hurt or abuse children, not mass surveillance.

AfD politician Rupp wants Berlin to turn against the new spying powers that would be granted to the EU.

He said that “Germany can no longer duck away, but must vote against this surveillance madness together with freedom-oriented states like Poland and Austria. Freedom and privacy are not negotiable goods.”

The upcoming vote, scheduled for Oct. 14, would see the EU Council vote on the “Regulation on the Prevention and Combating of Child Sexual Abuse,” also known as the CSAM regulation for short.

One of the major countries long opposed to such a measure has been Germany. What the law would actually do would allow automated searches of all private messages across the entire EU, including messages, photos, and videos, in order for the EU to look for child abuse or child pornography materials. Most importantly, these messages would be accessible to the EU even if they were encrypted.

On the surface, the EU says this is necessary to view all data flow in the European Union, including all end-to-end encrypted communications. However, data protection advocates indicate that the move would lead to digital mass surveillance on par with China.

“Under the guise of protecting children, the latest Chat Control proposals would require mass scanning of every message, photo, and video on a person’s device, assessing these via a government-mandated database or AI model to determine whether they are permissible content or not,” writes Signal in a call to action.

Signal wrote a press release opposing the EU chat control plan, which gained 4 million views on X alone.

“We are alarmed by reports that Germany is on the verge of a catastrophic about-face, reversing its longstanding and principled opposition to the EU’s Chat Control proposal which, if passed, could spell the end of the right to privacy in Europe,” wrote the messaging app non-profit, which is used by hundreds of millions of people.

Signal further warned in its press release that the EU’s proposal “is a horrifying idea for many reasons. First, the technical consensus is clear. Scanning every message–whether you do it before, or after these messages are encrypted–negates the very premise of end-to-end encryption. Instead of having to break the gold-standard Signal encryption protocol to access someone’s Signal messages, hackers and hostile nation states only need to piggyback on the access granted to the scanning system. This threat is so severe that even intelligence agencies agree it would be catastrophic for national security.”

There are further fears that the program could be rolled out to protect children, but over time, it could be expanded to censor political speech and arrest or punish political opponents of the ruling liberal establishment in Europe. Notably, users have been prosecuted for sharing memes, political content, and “off-color” jokes, oftentimes in private groups, such as the case of Dries Van Langenhove in Belgium.

Wednesday, October 8, 2025

GOLD 4,000 - October 2025

  Since I left Japan in early September, gold has gone up more than 25% to above 4,000 dollars per once. What is this telling us? 

  The IMF is saying that there is no exit from the dollar in international transactions but could they be wrong? If their statistics only cover what they are aware of, they could be missing large and significant transactions contracted in other currencies or in non official channels. 

  Likewise, it has become noticeable that significant jumps in the price of gold are taking place during the night in London and New York. Is this only indicating increased demand in Asia or more ominously a shift of gold trading from West to East? 

  Finally, as tensions rise in Eastern Europe, the Middle East and South America, more specifically Ukraine, Iran and Venezuela, it makes sense that more investors and countries could be reappraising the share of gold in their portfolios. 

  A long, long time ago, during the Summer, Trump was aiming for a Peace Nobel Price. Arming Ukraine was a footnote since this was the responsibility of Europe which anyway was going to foot the bill. Are they also supposed to pay for American technical experts and satellites necessary for cruise missiles such as the Tomahawk? 

 Bombing Iran was presented as a punctual military intervention necessary to prevent a larger war with Israel. Great success we were told! But not so great that more bombing has now become necessary? 

  As for Venezuela, the justification simply eat the cake. Attacking a sovereign nation in order to disrupt drug smuggling?  Even for those who believe that drug smuggling from South America is indeed a problem, maybe a war with a country should be the very last option? 

  But let suppose that the US, Europe and Japan somehow can find a solution to their exploding deficits and sinking currencies and that somehow war on multiple fronts does not spill over into a third World War, what should other countries, BRICS, ASEAN, Mercosur and the likes think about these developments? 

  Isn't it obvious that while Trump is 100% focused on his domestic fight against the deep state, he has completely outsourced his foreign policy to the Neo-cons and their previous long term international meddling?  

  Add to this a complete disruption of international trade and the global supply chain with tariffs and the America first policy for which we haven't yet seen the consequences, and it is clear that the omen are rather bleak.   

  Will everything turn from bad to worse? Probably not but with so many black swans over the horizon, having fewer dollars and more gold may be a very wise decision indeed. Will dollar assets be confiscated as for Russia and other countries, debased with inflation or cancelled with re-denomination? Sooner that later something is bound to happen.  This is what stocks and gold at record levels are telling us. 

  The only thing we do not know yet is the deadline but the vertical rise we are seeing right now is telling us that it cannot be long before either valuations are proved absurd and the bubble bursts or the markets are proved right and the world explodes militarily and financially. Let's pray for the former and prepare for the later. We may not have very long to wait to know the answer. 

The Recent Sino-US Dispute Over Taiwan's Post-WWII Status Is A Sign Of The Times

    Who is right in the case of Taiwan?      It's complicated.    The island was originally not as Chinese as advertised,  then spent a ...