In spite of what we hear from the White House, there is currently apparently no negotiations going on between the US and Iran.
Some people believe that the hard line tactic of the US has convinced the new regime in Iran to go the nuclear way. The timeline would be to stop the negotiations, kick the IAEA out and finally detonate a nuclear device as a warning. Is this disinformation to justify an attack from the US? Quite possible.
What is certain is the the current stalemate cannot last very long. The international supply chain has weathered the disruption better than expected thanks to significant oil stocks in the US, Japan and China which until now have mitigated the shock but this cannot last forever.
Aluminum as discussed in the video below is getting scarce as 20% of the world production was coming from the Gulf which is logical since it requires a lot of energy to refine the metal. The other main producers are Canada, China, Russia and India. Good luck to Asia and Europe in procuring the lightweight metal essential for green technologies and transportation.
Soon the problem with fertilizers will come to the fore. Then in the autumn the price of food will increase significantly impacting everybody but especially poor and populous nations like Egypt which cannot feed themselves.
The markets currently behave as if the crisis was over sailing from top to top, whereas this is little more than a lull in the storm.
The reality in the US, is that Trump is already a lame duck president. He can disrupt with his daily tweets be cannot build anything, nor is he seen as a reliable party by anyone. The recent tightening of sanctions against Russia by the legislative power shows that he has less and less sway on foreign relations. And very soon he will be 100% focused on damage control for the mid-term elections.
Raising the temperature expecting your adversary to fold may have appeared like a workable tactic a month ago. But if they don't, which seems to be the case, what is plan B? Trump said yesterday that he would not tell us. Maybe so, but very soon he will have to show us!
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