Authored by Tuomas Malinen via Substack,
I have to say that I am rather glad that our first estimates on the timing of Peak Escalation missed their mark (in the ‘probability-mass’ sense).
These are the October 9 estimates of GnS Economics for the timing of escalation in and around Ukraine:
Our current likelihoods for the timing of Peak Escalation in Europe are:
Before the U.S. Presidential elections (November 5): 30%;
After the elections, but before inauguration (January 20): 40%;
After the inauguration: 20%;
There will be no Peak Escalation: 10%.
Note
that these reflect also the fact that we currently expect President
Trump to win in November. The likelihood of #4 (no Peak Escalation) is
so low, because we consider it requiring a wide-spread (global) peace
movement, which is nowhere to be seen currently.
Within
them, we have now entered the 30% likelihood range. I do consider that
the likelihood of the No-Peak Escalation scenario is the same or even
smaller now. Yet, we have to note that there were efforts to push the conflict to the next level, but those efforts failed in provoking Kremling (instead they replied with something new).
I envisaged the Peak Escalation hypothesis in August last year. However, the concept had been circling in my mind for about a year before that. On November 5, 2023, I wrote:
As
a final notion, and stop us from drifting completely into the world of
‘sunshine and rainbows’ ;), I want to share a piece of information I
received from a former (long-time) operative in the U.N. Middle East
military intelligence. He said to me several years back that nothing
that happens in and around Israel goes unnoticed by Mossad. He gave
several examples, which I cannot repeat here due to confidentiality.
This is not a conspiracy theory, but a observed fact from a high-ranking
soldier, who served in the area several times.
Thus, I,
for one, do not believe for a second that Mossad and the IDF were
surprised by Hamas. They at least allowed the strikes to Israel to
happen, if not worse. This adds a serious twist to all that has been
written above, implying that there may be a major ‘powerplay’ going on
in the background, surpassing the current geopolitical logic and
increasing the likelihood that we may end up seeing a highly illogical
outcome, i.e., a serious escalation.
Essentially,
the Peak Escalation hypothesis assumes that there are strong background
forces seeking to widen regional conflicts in Ukraine, the Middle East,
Southeast Asia, and, possibly, Asia Minor into a combined ‘global
conflict,’ essentially a World War III.

This
might sound preposterous, but when you apply Occam’s Razor to
everything that has been happening (especially in and around Ukraine)
rigorously, like I did in the Horsemen of the Apocalypse,
it yields a rather definite answer. That is, the answer that requires
the least amount of assumptions is that there is some powerful force
pushing for the global escalation. It does not matter if you believe
this or not. If you apply the Occam’s Razor principle in a truthful and
honest manner, you will simply end up at this conclusion.
The motives behind such a force are much more difficult to come by.
The
military-industrial complex naturally seeks profits, and the Deep State
seeks control. However, we have to ask, would a nuclear war serve their
aims, as this is an inevitable end-result of waging a war against
Russia? We can state, with rather high confidence, that annihilation of a
vast part of the human race would not serve the aims of military
corporations, which would lose their source of income (and factories),
or those seeking for wider government control of societies, because
societies and government control systems would collapse. So, to find a
deeper motive behind the escalation against Russia, we need to step
beyond the standard logic and common sense.
In the Horsemen of the Apocalypse, I speculated that there exists some ‘group-over-groups’ seeking to Divide et Impera (to Divide and Conquer). I, for once, quoted former U.S. President Woodrow Wilson, who stated that
Some
of the biggest men in the United States, in the field of commerce and
manufacture, are afraid of somebody, are afraid of something. They know
that there is a power somewhere so organized, so subtle, so watchful, so
interlocked, so complete, so pervasive that they had better not speak
above their breath when they speak in condemnation of it.
After
the Occam’s Razor yielded the outcome of such a background force
existing (I even checked with a student of philosophy whether I had
applied it correctly), I extended my analysis to their aims. This is what it yielded:
If
one applies Occam’s razor to everything described above, it yields one
clear answer. There must be a very powerful group above parliaments,
national elites and supranational organizations, like the World Economic
Forum and the Bilberberg Group, pushing its own agenda of Divide et
Impera. Moreover, the agenda must be exceptionally brutal, as it seems
to attack all levels of human existence (physical, mental, emotional,
spiritual). The existence of such a group would fit in with what
President Wilson described in the early 20th century.
Based
on this logic, the aim of such a group-over-groups is likely to be to
subjugate the whole of human existence under some kind of global
control. They seem to want people mentally disturbed, weak,
undernourished and fearful. This makes sense, because such people are
easy to control and push in different directions, like hating the
un-vaxed, Russians or Palestinians.
A nuclear war might (might) fit into such a motive.
If you want to turn humanity into a smallish slave-race serving the
ruling elite, nuclear war would do just that (if you think that you can
shield yourself from its consequences). That is, if you want humanity to
blindly obey some “elite,” you need to greatly cut the number of people
living on earth simply because smaller numbers are easier to control
and it diminishes the likelihood of mutinies. Also, if your survival
becomes tied to scarce resources shielded from the radiation and nuclear
winter in ‘doomsday bunkers’ built by the elite, you will become
submissive (see, e.g., this and this).
I
know the above is extremely speculative. But I am an unyielding
empiricist who believes in cause and effect and in logic, no matter how
twisted, behind major decisions. If you think that our (mostly
European) leaders have simply gone mad, then you can bypass everything
written above. However, if you are like me, then I would recommend that
you start to look behind developments for the (likely) true motive
behind all that is happening. I don’t see a nuclear war igniting just
now, but the direction of travel is clearly towards it.
If you
also find it to be the likely aim of some of our leaders, I would urge
you to write to your parliamentarian or congressperson immediately and
demand that we step away from this path. I would also do this ASAP,
because (currently) nuclear confrontation with Russia is inching closer
each passing day.
In hoc signo vinces,
Tuomas