Doug Casey below is on the pessimistic side, clearly but then again, reality for now has vindicated the trends he is exposing. In a crisis, people expect "events". They do come, from time to time, but mostly you recognize them after the facts or when we decide that it was indeed a turning point. Case in point: Nothing much happened on the 14th of July 1789 in Paris. The Bastille was a poorly guarded citadel with only 6 prisoners, mostly wealthy, kept in comfortable conditions, so the "Storming of the Bastille" was probably quite an overstatement. But the Revolution had to start "somewhere" so history decided that "Bastille" it would be.
It is the same today. One day we may decide that DeepSeek, Unitree Robotics or a Taikonaut on the Moon marked the progress of China, although in reality, this was a 50-year event starting with Deng Xiaoping in the late 1970s.
I do believe that events in 2026 are likely because some of the current trends are approaching a breaking point. Although unlikely, the US buildup in the Caribbean Sea could dissolve, the Ukraine war could last another year and Europe keep closing itself with more and more control of the Internet. But all this wouldn't be "nothing", just the continuation of downward trends which eventually will result in major changes.
Think about the world before the Covid Crisis in 2020 or 9/11 in 2001. These are events. Conversely, it is not the crisis of 2008 which changed the financial landscape, as we just dodged the bullet at the time. The crash of the Repo market in 2019 (which I believe was what triggered the artificial Corona Crisis in order to inject massive trillions of subsidies to "save" the system a few months later), or the explosion of gold in 2025 which underline the gradual marginalization of the dollar currency in international trade, are appropriately true silent events taking place over months rather than days triggering a cascade of consequences which in the end are over time transforming our world drastically.
2025 was one of these "almost" event-less years. High in tensions, low in happenings. 2026 could be too, but probably won't. We may finally have reached the gate of "interesting times".
Via International Man
International Man: What do you see as the single most important thing that people should prepare for in 2026?
Doug Casey: Strauss and Howe asked that question in their book, The Fourth Turning. We’re at a major turning point in the U.S.
I’ve felt for years that the U.S. was heading toward something like a
civil war. It could be as serious as the unpleasantness of the 1860s,
just different. The red people and the blue people in the U.S. really
dislike each other; they can’t even talk to each other. When things get
to that stage, things are typically solved by force; I expect that’s
what’s going to happen. Very likely during the next three years, while
Trump is still in office. He’s the perfect catalyst.
It’s going to be exacerbated by the long-term migration trends. If we
look 100 years down the road, it’s pretty clear that with modern travel
and communications technologies, the migration of people from poor
countries to rich countries all around the world will accelerate.
Eventually, the U.S. won’t even exist in its present form. Of course,
that’s true of every country. The colors of the map on the wall have
been running since Day One.
I hope a catastrophic upset doesn’t happen in the near future for any
number of reasons. For one, it won’t be any fun. For another, I’m a
huge fan of traditional America. It was a unique institution in world
history—the only country ever founded on the concepts of free thought,
free markets, and individualism. A civil war—regardless of what form it
takes—would likely overturn those things.
While I hope things mellow out, hope isn’t the best foundation for making plans.
International Man: Geopolitically, tensions continue to build across Europe, the Middle East, and East Asia.
Where do you expect the major flashpoints to emerge in 2026?
Doug Casey: The politicians who run Europe are
uniformly despicable non-entities, from Ursula von der Leyen, She-Wolf
of the EU, on down. One proof of that statement is that I could be
prosecuted just for saying so in much of Europe. They’re soulless
bureaucrats who stand for nothing but statism and collectivism. They’re
driving Europe to actively rearm, doubling military budgets,
reinstituting the draft, and talking about the necessity of war with
Russia. I suspect they’ll get their war; I just hope it doesn’t go
nuclear or biological. Odd, in that it’s over the Ukraine, the most
backward and corrupt country on the continent. Perverse, in that it was
never even a country until Lenin created it in 1923.
But that’s not all. The euro, an Esperanto currency, the “Who owes
you nothing?” of fiat currencies, is a dead duck. All of the EU’s member
countries are bankrupt welfare states. In fact, the European Union
itself is going to break up. What’s good for individual countries is
totally at odds with what the 80,000—and that’s an accurate number—EU
employees in Brussels want to impose. NATO, which should have been
disbanded when the USSR collapsed, will also disappear. Europe will,
best case, become a petting zoo for Chinese tourists and a luxury resort
for Third World migrants.
The Middle East? While Trump is in office, we might as well adopt
Israel as the 51st state. That won’t go down well with the world’s two
billion Muhammadans. Don’t confuse the friendly relations of Washington
with the governments of Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and others among the 55
Muslim countries with political stability. Most are economic basket
cases and extremely unstable.
East Asia? It’s perfectly irrational for China to attack Taiwan. The
result would be widespread destruction on both sides—even if the US
and/or Japan didn’t join the party. But governments do irrational
things, unpredictably. What will happen with China’s claims on the East
and South China Seas? It should be between them and six of their
maritime neighbors. But the US could turn a regional border dispute into
WW3.
But the unexpected flashpoint, I think, is going to be Africa. Over
the last 60 years, the 55 African states (that’s only an approximate
number since we don’t know how places like Libya, Western Sahara,
Somaliland, or Darfur will wind up) have developed significant armies,
aided by weapons and training from Europe and the US. They survive on
the export of raw materials (causes of perpetual conflict) and aid from
Europe and the U.S. (which is likely to evaporate). All of them (like
almost everywhere in the Middle East and Central Asia) are artificial
constructs with arbitrary borders. They’re all unstable kleptocracies
run from the presidential palace.
The question is: to what degree will Europe, or especially the U.S.,
or especially Trump, stick their nose into African border wars and civil
wars? There will be lots of them. I think Africa is the big powderkeg
that nobody’s talking about.
International Man: The U.S. domestic political situation remains combustible, with deep cultural and economic fractures.
How do you expect America’s internal divisions to evolve in 2026 as we approach the midterms?
Doug Casey: Trends in motion tend to stay in motion.
Despite the fact that corporations, the entertainment industry,
academia, and the media seem to be backing away from truly insane levels
of wokeism, the issue is in doubt. The trend toward Wokeism has built
momentum for decades, and the country’s been indoctrinated with it for
generations. It’s not going away overnight.
Trump is purposefully and overtly polarizing. As I discussed last week (link),
although he may see himself as Cincinnatus, he’s more like Caesar.
He’ll keep stirring things up, if only because he knows what his
adversaries will do to him when he’s out of office. While most sensible
people love his antiwokeism, most of his economic and international
interventionism will backfire—bigly. I suspect he’ll lose the midterms,
and the Dems in the House will impeach him again. Will they succeed in
the Senate this time? The natives will get restless no matter what.
International Man: With Trump poised to replace Fed
Chair Powell, he will exert a stronger influence over central bank
policy. What do you expect the monetary environment of 2026 to look
like?
Doug Casey: The dollar will approach its intrinsic value as Trump and the Fed create a trillion more of them. It’s a formula for chaos.
Trump is a big believer in mercantilist-style economics, which holds
that the US must export more than it imports. I think he’ll try to force
that issue with foreign exchange controls of some type, creating yet
more distortions.
You want to exit the dollar, own precious metals, avoid the stock
market and bond markets, and get your money out of the U.S. None of this
is a formula for domestic tranquility, either in 2026, 2027, 2028, or
beyond. And I’m assuming there will be a normal election in 2028, which
is not a very safe assumption.
International Man: Investors are torn between chasing the current market bubble and preparing for a potential financial reckoning.
Where do you think the biggest risks and opportunities will be in
2026, and which asset classes are positioned to benefit most from the
turbulence ahead?
Doug Casey: There’s no question about the fact that
most of Trump’s business success has been due to borrowing. Leverage,
low interest rates, and inflation made the man.
Trump’s history and incorrect understanding of economics tell me that
the Fed will buy and monetize more government debt than ever, doing
everything they can to artificially depress interest rates. For the
short run, that could argue for the stock market going higher in 2026.
But it’s a high-risk bet. Do you feel lucky?
With gold over $4,000 and silver over $60, they’re probably where
they “should” be relative to other things. But as unstable as the world
is, and because of their unique advantages, they’re going higher. The
smart thing is to speculate on the shares of miners; they’re really
cheap, and neither the public nor the institutions even know they exist,
for reasons I’ve discussed in the past. All-in sustaining costs of
producing gold is about $1,500 an ounce. It’s not hard to do the math.
In the last 50 years, we’ve had five 10-to-1 mining bull markets. I
think we’re about to experience one more. A big one. Many of the smaller
stocks have already gone three or four to one. Nobody cares… which is
good.
Via International Man
International Man: What do you see as the single most important thing that people should prepare for in 2026?
Doug Casey: Strauss and Howe asked that question in their book, The Fourth Turning. We’re at a major turning point in the U.S.
I’ve felt for years that the U.S. was heading toward something like a
civil war. It could be as serious as the unpleasantness of the 1860s,
just different. The red people and the blue people in the U.S. really
dislike each other; they can’t even talk to each other. When things get
to that stage, things are typically solved by force; I expect that’s
what’s going to happen. Very likely during the next three years, while
Trump is still in office. He’s the perfect catalyst.
It’s going to be exacerbated by the long-term migration trends. If we
look 100 years down the road, it’s pretty clear that with modern travel
and communications technologies, the migration of people from poor
countries to rich countries all around the world will accelerate.
Eventually, the U.S. won’t even exist in its present form. Of course,
that’s true of every country. The colors of the map on the wall have
been running since Day One.
I hope a catastrophic upset doesn’t happen in the near future for any
number of reasons. For one, it won’t be any fun. For another, I’m a
huge fan of traditional America. It was a unique institution in world
history—the only country ever founded on the concepts of free thought,
free markets, and individualism. A civil war—regardless of what form it
takes—would likely overturn those things.
While I hope things mellow out, hope isn’t the best foundation for making plans.
International Man: Geopolitically, tensions continue to build across Europe, the Middle East, and East Asia.
Where do you expect the major flashpoints to emerge in 2026?
Doug Casey: The politicians who run Europe are
uniformly despicable non-entities, from Ursula von der Leyen, She-Wolf
of the EU, on down. One proof of that statement is that I could be
prosecuted just for saying so in much of Europe. They’re soulless
bureaucrats who stand for nothing but statism and collectivism. They’re
driving Europe to actively rearm, doubling military budgets,
reinstituting the draft, and talking about the necessity of war with
Russia. I suspect they’ll get their war; I just hope it doesn’t go
nuclear or biological. Odd, in that it’s over the Ukraine, the most
backward and corrupt country on the continent. Perverse, in that it was
never even a country until Lenin created it in 1923.
But that’s not all. The euro, an Esperanto currency, the “Who owes
you nothing?” of fiat currencies, is a dead duck. All of the EU’s member
countries are bankrupt welfare states. In fact, the European Union
itself is going to break up. What’s good for individual countries is
totally at odds with what the 80,000—and that’s an accurate number—EU
employees in Brussels want to impose. NATO, which should have been
disbanded when the USSR collapsed, will also disappear. Europe will,
best case, become a petting zoo for Chinese tourists and a luxury resort
for Third World migrants.
The Middle East? While Trump is in office, we might as well adopt
Israel as the 51st state. That won’t go down well with the world’s two
billion Muhammadans. Don’t confuse the friendly relations of Washington
with the governments of Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and others among the 55
Muslim countries with political stability. Most are economic basket
cases and extremely unstable.
East Asia? It’s perfectly irrational for China to attack Taiwan. The
result would be widespread destruction on both sides—even if the US
and/or Japan didn’t join the party. But governments do irrational
things, unpredictably. What will happen with China’s claims on the East
and South China Seas? It should be between them and six of their
maritime neighbors. But the US could turn a regional border dispute into
WW3.
But the unexpected flashpoint, I think, is going to be Africa. Over
the last 60 years, the 55 African states (that’s only an approximate
number since we don’t know how places like Libya, Western Sahara,
Somaliland, or Darfur will wind up) have developed significant armies,
aided by weapons and training from Europe and the US. They survive on
the export of raw materials (causes of perpetual conflict) and aid from
Europe and the U.S. (which is likely to evaporate). All of them (like
almost everywhere in the Middle East and Central Asia) are artificial
constructs with arbitrary borders. They’re all unstable kleptocracies
run from the presidential palace.
The question is: to what degree will Europe, or especially the U.S.,
or especially Trump, stick their nose into African border wars and civil
wars? There will be lots of them. I think Africa is the big powderkeg
that nobody’s talking about.
International Man: The U.S. domestic political situation remains combustible, with deep cultural and economic fractures.
How do you expect America’s internal divisions to evolve in 2026 as we approach the midterms?
Doug Casey: Trends in motion tend to stay in motion.
Despite the fact that corporations, the entertainment industry,
academia, and the media seem to be backing away from truly insane levels
of wokeism, the issue is in doubt. The trend toward Wokeism has built
momentum for decades, and the country’s been indoctrinated with it for
generations. It’s not going away overnight.
Trump is purposefully and overtly polarizing. As I discussed last week (link),
although he may see himself as Cincinnatus, he’s more like Caesar.
He’ll keep stirring things up, if only because he knows what his
adversaries will do to him when he’s out of office. While most sensible
people love his antiwokeism, most of his economic and international
interventionism will backfire—bigly. I suspect he’ll lose the midterms,
and the Dems in the House will impeach him again. Will they succeed in
the Senate this time? The natives will get restless no matter what.
International Man: With Trump poised to replace Fed
Chair Powell, he will exert a stronger influence over central bank
policy. What do you expect the monetary environment of 2026 to look
like?
Doug Casey: The dollar will approach its intrinsic value as Trump and the Fed create a trillion more of them. It’s a formula for chaos.
Trump is a big believer in mercantilist-style economics, which holds
that the US must export more than it imports. I think he’ll try to force
that issue with foreign exchange controls of some type, creating yet
more distortions.
You want to exit the dollar, own precious metals, avoid the stock
market and bond markets, and get your money out of the U.S. None of this
is a formula for domestic tranquility, either in 2026, 2027, 2028, or
beyond. And I’m assuming there will be a normal election in 2028, which
is not a very safe assumption.
International Man: Investors are torn between chasing the current market bubble and preparing for a potential financial reckoning.
Where do you think the biggest risks and opportunities will be in
2026, and which asset classes are positioned to benefit most from the
turbulence ahead?
Doug Casey: There’s no question about the fact that
most of Trump’s business success has been due to borrowing. Leverage,
low interest rates, and inflation made the man.
Trump’s history and incorrect understanding of economics tell me that
the Fed will buy and monetize more government debt than ever, doing
everything they can to artificially depress interest rates. For the
short run, that could argue for the stock market going higher in 2026.
But it’s a high-risk bet. Do you feel lucky?
With gold over $4,000 and silver over $60, they’re probably where
they “should” be relative to other things. But as unstable as the world
is, and because of their unique advantages, they’re going higher. The
smart thing is to speculate on the shares of miners; they’re really
cheap, and neither the public nor the institutions even know they exist,
for reasons I’ve discussed in the past. All-in sustaining costs of
producing gold is about $1,500 an ounce. It’s not hard to do the math.
In the last 50 years, we’ve had five 10-to-1 mining bull markets. I
think we’re about to experience one more. A big one. Many of the smaller
stocks have already gone three or four to one. Nobody cares… which is
good.
