Chris Martenson on Low Oil, Iran, Russia - NATO Escalation, Gold & Rogue AI (Video - 41mn)

    Chris Martenson tends to be on the gloomy side but his analysis is incisive. His take is that the market of the 2020s is almost completely destroyed as a financial indicator of our economy. In a FIAT (fiduciary) system where money is linked to nothing of substance as it has been the case since 1971, paper is drowning actual demand so much so that the market mechanisms become ineffective and do not tell us anything of substance. Central Banks issue money without restrain and speculators who now dominate all markets can manipulate the price of any commodity regardless of actual demand. This is why in spite of high demand and limited supply, prices stay low completely cancelling their balancing effect between supply and demand. This is true for oil but also for silver, copper, and basically any and every raw material. 

   What lurks down this road is inflation in the short term thanks to excess liquidity and disruption when supply stops suddenly without warning. Our economy has become complex and the global supply chain is resilient. Nevertheless, the zero stock system invented by Toyota in the 1980s has now trickled out to the rest of the economy generating a brittle chain at the opposite of the non-fragile principle popularized by Nassim Nicholas Taleb. ( His 2012 book: "Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder" is well worth reading by the way.) 

   This is why, the current bubble is so dangerous. What's bellow is not mere adjustment easily balanced by a recession but a systemic breakdown of the whole system incapable of coping with its own complexity built layer by layer over the years and the utter absence of warning information. The exact information market mechanisms used to enforce by exacting rising prices on consumers unwilling to reduce demand. 

   In this respect, it is worth remembering the former USSR which also disregarded supply and demand, preferring the more malleable mechanism of central planing and allocation of resources. Chris Martenson doesn't go this far in his analysis since the interview is only 40 minutes long but it is hard to miss the implied criticism of our current financial markets.   

Chris Martenson on Low Oil, Iran, Russia - NATO Escalation, Gold & Rogue AI

Scientist Analyzes 3000 Years Of Data (Video - 1h22mn)

    The subject of this video is as interesting as the author is not. Fortunately, Just the PowerPoint Presentation is enough to follow the progression of the argumentation and the talk is extremely well documented under the video with structure and links which provide the necessary support to understand the reasoning.  

    In a precedent article, we saw how Peter Zeihan was integrating resources and population in his economic analysis: 

The World You Grew Up In Is About to Change Forever by Peter Zeihan

    Here, Simon Michaux is adding the time dimension to the discussion with a fascinating exploration of what happened before. 

    So what exactly happened before? 

    Even without reading Gibbon's Rise and Fall of the Roman Empire, most people are well aware of the decline of Rome and the onslaught of the German "Barbarians" 1,500 years ago. But adding the similar crash of the Bronze Age period, 1,500 years before that, adds context to how exactly civilizations fall by exhausting the resources they are built upon. Especially as narrated by the Egyptians with their Empire at the time of Ramses III submerged by the mysterious "Sea People".  

   Simon Michaux believes the warning for us is ominous and explains in detail how he believes, lacking energy, we may lose the ability to manufacture our most advanced products with microchips at the very top of the list. 

Scientist Analyzes 3000 Years Of Data: The Elite Are Preparing For Something HUGE | Simon Michaux

CHAPTERS of the discussion:

00:00 – Introduction: Semiconductors as Modern Charcoal

00:58 – The Concept of Grand Transitions

02:44 – High-Level Policy Meetings & Global Fragility

06:04 – Lessons from Past Civilizations (1177 BC Collapse)

17:00 – A Forest Journey: Wood as the Original Oil

21:23– Our Dependence on Fossil Fuels

22:56 – The 60-Year Evolution of the Automobile & Petroleum

25:50 – Natural Gas: From Waste Product to National Strategy

27:28 – The Rise of Petrochemicals & Synthetic Materials

29:02 – Manufacturing Complexity: From Metal Lathes to CNC

32:05 – Semiconductors: The Pinnacle of Industrial Complexity

35:18 – Industrial Agriculture & The Green Revolution

37:52 – Mining & The Increasing Energy Cost of Metal

41:42 – The Ecological Reality & Planetary Carrying Capacity

42:54 – Money, Banking, & The Shift to Virtual Currency

47:14– The Current Grand Transition Summary

53:50 – The Factor of Time: Why Transitions Take Decades

55:21 – Updated Models: Price Volatility & Resource Declines

59:51 – Preparing for Inevitable Systemic Shifts

01:03:30 – Geopolitics, Bioweapons, & Strategic Conflicts

01:07:41 – Can AI Solve Resource Scarcity?

01:14:45 – Surveillance Grids vs. Resource Management

01:21:09 – Where to Find Simon Michaux’s Work

A $100 Trillion Currency Crisis Just Started (Video - 19mn)

   Let's stay with good news. This video is shorter than the previous one but no less concerning, Is the dollar about to crash... up, and throw the world economy under the bus?  

   It is not only likely but what is actually happening in slow motion right now. The main roadkill may end up being the Japanese Yen since the Japanese are stuck with a very low and repressive interest rate thanks to their gargantuan debt. Korea is also suffering mightily and so will every single developing country soon enough. What could slow down this trend? Well, a recession of course. That one thing which name we cannot say less we slay the market bubble. Did someone called this a bind? 

A $100 Trillion Currency Crisis Just Started

 

The World You Grew Up In Is About to Change Forever by Peter Zeihan (Video - 1h19mn)

   I am not a great fan of Peter Zeihan. He is an ideologue and I find most of his conclusions consequently tainted. But one thing he does better than anybody else is incorporate resources and population in his economic forecast which very few other analysts can lacking the knowledge.   

   In the video below, he makes a few predictions, one of which I have already heard which stipulate that the population of China is not as high as it is said. This looks preposterous at first glance: How could a country like China not count accurately its population? But then, when you look at the details, it makes more and more sense. Is the disparity as large as what he says: 300 millions? There is probably no way to know. But think about it, if this was even remotely true, this would change almost all the other data we think we know about China. First the country would automatically be richer than calculated, and then there is the age pyramid imbalance which he talks about extensively in the video below:   

The World You Grew Up In Is About to Change Forever - Peter Zeihan

 

 

BREAKING-PEPE: SAUDI ARABIA JUST DUMPED AMERICA-Will Pakistan's Nuclear Umbrella Now Cover Saudi ? (Video - 35mn)

   To borrow the words of Pepe Escobar, the realignment taking place in the Middle East right now is "immensely important"! 

   Forget what you hear on the news, There are basically no negotiations between the US and Iran contrary to the media show taking place in Switzerland. The "real" negotiations are between Iran and Saudi Arabia by the intermediary of Pakistan and concern a new security arrangement for the whole Middle East.  

   The issue is not the simplistic concept of who won and lost the war. What really happened is that Iran single-handedly resisted the onslaught of the US war machine and by this feat alone redistributed the cards in the Gulf. 

   Long term, this means the exit of the US from the area and a more "local based" structure to maintain both peace and the flow of oil guaranteed by Pakistan (with China behind?). 

   This said, there are elements missing from the analysis of Pepe Escobar. The Israels of course are fulminating and have said publicly that they would NOT respect any specific clause from such agreement. More silently, the Emirates cannot welcome with open arms something which favor so obviously Saudi Arabia. Finally, India, the main buyer of Iranian oil looks strangely absent from an agreement centered on its archenemy, Pakistan. 

   What is certain is that the whole post-1973 petro-dollar arrangement of the last 50 years is now at stake. This concerns absolutely everybody and that indeed is "immensely important".  Uncovering and understanding such seismic shifts is what this blog is about, not commenting the news which nowadays is mostly hogwash of propaganda and misdirection. With this context in mind, let's prepare for a turbulent Summer. Here's the details on YouTube:  

BREAKING-PEPE: SAUDI ARABIA JUST DUMPED AMERICA-Will Pakistan's Nuclear Umbrella Now Cover Saudi ?

Your Money Is About To Be Worth A Lot Less (Video - 25mn)

   Everything is about narrative these days including and especially the market.

   Get it right and people will accept almost anything. Get it wrong, they revolt. 

   The job of the Fed of course it to get it right. This is how it's done: 

Your Money Is About To Be Worth A Lot Less

   Plus an update on Iran and the oil market.

   To say that we are in deep sh!t is an understatement! 

Iran Negotiation DESASTER & Russia in Full War Mode | Larry C. Johnson