Although Machine Learning is making great progress right now, we are still a long way from true AI. Automatic translation and recognizing faces were the low hanging fruits of ML. My educated guess is that writing computer code, the next step, will arrive sooner than people expect. Would that prove to be true, we may have a early experience of run-away exponential progress as computers will very quickly write code too complicated for humans to make sense of. In a nutshell, we would end up with true black boxes with millions of lines that nobody could understand. A plane on auto-pilot but with the caveat that the destination is unknown!
More than the elusive risk of consciousness which for the time being is still far in the future and therefore not a real risk, this is an actual and far more immediate danger. Conversely, the competitive advantage to be gained from this kind of software is such that necessarily both China and the US will compete ferociously and therefore accelerate its appearance. The result at this stage is unpredictable...
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