When you approach a waterfall, you usually encounter a few boulders or half submerged rocks in the water indicating that the roar in the distance may be something of concern.
By "rocks", I do not mean the war in Ukraine or the slaughter in Gaza, these are the waters speeding up. I mean a lame government in Germany which at most has only a couple of months to live until the next elections which are already lost. No government at all in France, which would be fine if the country had a budget for 2025 (It doesn't!) ignoring the deficit of over 7%. An almost impeached President in Korea which society is already in deep trouble with a birth rate of only 0.70 per woman, the lowest in the world. A color revolution ongoing in Georgia which will soon pit West and East, unavoidably. A crumbling government in Syria which likewise will see Iran and Russia on the other side to Israel and the US. Advanced decomposition in Cuba which now has neither power plants nor oil to run them and therefore no electricity most of the time. And the list will soon grow weekly if not daily.
Unfortunately, in these troubled time, the US too has no government, with a lame administration focused on making life as difficult as they can for the coming one. Here too, 6 more weeks to go! Can the world survive the tumult?
In more ordinary times, this wouldn't be a problem, the Deep State would do what they know how to do best: Keep the ball rolling wherever it is heading for. But we are not living in "ordinary" times.
The current financial bubble is the largest the world has ever known and about to burst. The Central Banks won't make the same mistake this time as in 2008. A whiff of panic and they will immediately flood the market with liquidities. The market knows and caution is therefore out of the window. Gold knows, Bitcoin knows...
We are therefore about to enter a banquet of consequences. Fiat or worthless fiduciary currencies are about to be reunited with their makers in an immense splash of deflation which will be following a sharp jump of inflation in a last and ultimate attempt to "save" the system. Trump will of course punish the BRICS "rats" jumping off the boat to no avail since staying in the boat will be a guaranty to sink with it. Not that swimming naked in a cold and empty ocean will bring any relief or comfort to anyone. Countries with natural resources will fare better at first but with demand crumbling, this won't last long. Eventually the whole global chain will crash and war will come either just before or just after. It is as unavoidable as day follows night.
So the key question is where exactly is the waterfall? It is, unlike a natural one, quite flexible in fact. If history accelerates it could be very soon. End of the year, early next year? I would put a low but not zero probability on such an outcome. If conversely, the Trump administration has time to enter office in Washington, we will get a respite. They will need to focus on domestic priorities, fire and appoint tens of thousands of people. In other words, they will be busy while the rest of the world holds its collective breath. But the bad numbers of a recession which is already with us both in the US and in Europe will accumulate behind a weak dam of expectations. Then an "archduke", somewhere will be assassinated. This too is unavoidable. When everyone in the saloon has his hand on his gun, a fly should both avoid flying or landing!
What happens after that is totally unpredictable. Conflicts will flare all over the place. Trade will crash. The value of anything but food will crash since more cash will double the price of vegetables and triple the price of meat long before it has any effect on real estate that nobody will have any use for.
Because we live in a technological society, people will be distracted. But not for long! They will quickly learn or rather relearn what truly has value and what has none. A real friend with actual skills will be at a premium. A virtual one on Facebook who likes everything you post, not so much. Access to food will be invaluable. A computer with no wifi and no electricity not so much.
This is of course all hypothetical so most people reading this on their lap in a warm room will probably think little of such warnings. I would too, if I didn't have the experience of the great Tohoku Earthquake in Japan 14 years ago.
On that day of March 11, 2011, we had 3 very large earthquakes the one after the other in Tokyo. The epicenter was almost 300 km north so although the shakings were violent, the buildings didn't crumble. It was a sunny but very cold afternoon in late winter so after a while I started walking home, a mere 60 km away. As darkness enveloped the city an hour later, I had covered a little more than 5 km and it was clear that I wouldn't make it home for another 12 or more hours. A rather long, cold night ahead!
All was dark, and as I walked feverishly in the eastern suburbs of Tokyo, far less crowded now than in the center, past the Tokyo Tree tower, under construction then, I found a bicycle shop, all dark but still open! All the cheap bikes were already gone of course but since the guy could only accept cash, he had not been able to sell any of the more expensive ones. Lucky day, I still had 30,000 yens (about 250 USD then) in my pocket. Some negotiations and 10 minutes later I was on my way in a brand new bicycle. No mobile of course, no public phone working, no news from home, but fortunately I had a paper map in my bag. (Many people did then just in case...) To make a long story short, 6 hours later I was home, around two in the morning, frozen, having witnessed a gas tank explode 10 km away in the port of Tokyo, (No noise, just a huge 1 km high flame in the dark. A beautiful and apocalyptic scenery.) managed sandy roads due to liquefaction and rather uncertain, smaller, broken bridges in the countryside.
It is only after reaching home that I realized the extent of the damage. There was still electricity where I live in Narita, close to the airport, so we were lucky. But it is only during the following days that we started seeing shops emptying of all goods, especially food. Followed soon after by the nuclear scare of the exploding Fukushima reactors the ones after the others.
The lessons were several: Except for the illusory and thankfully very rare asteroid, a catastrophe doesn't arrive in a day. Having a minimum of cash and food was a rather good idea then, and it may be an even better one now. Resilience is another good idea although I didn't become a "preper". When push comes to shove, good relations with neighbors will compensate for whatever you didn't think about earlier. (After it's always too late!) I was lucky to be living in Japan, were people are "relatively" polite and considerate. Most people, not all, were helpful. There was no violence, no looting, no fighting, no nothing is spite of a huge level of stress. People were queuing in dark convenience stores to buy whatever food they could find.
The one thing that is certain during such calamities is that things turn bad, then they get worse, then painful long before relief starts appearing on the horizon. A shelter is an immediate necessity against the cold and rain. Then water and food, then clothing. Information is at a premium. Then money becomes scarce when your not-so-friendly ATM is pitch dark. Remember than during a financial crisis, it is not just the ATM but the banks that are closed. (With angry people starting to scream in front of the door after 3 or 4 days.) A crisis has a dynamic of its own with levels up or down (your choice) after a week, a month, a year. People do adapt but suddenly you also realize that tomorrow is not going to be like yesterday as the new reality sets in.
Try to think how difficult life must be in Lebanon after years of a relentless financial crisis. And a war to top it all more recently. Now imagine YOUR country going through a similar cycle. It won't happen in a day, but next year, say end of 2025, could be very nothing like today. As John Lennon would have said: "I wonder if you can!" Well, then try harder because soon you may not have a choice and having thought about it earlier may be the difference between life and misery!
No comments:
Post a Comment