The link to the full article (at the end) is unfortunately behind a paywall. Still in this time of extreme tensions, it is worth remembering that the world is on edge and everything can easily get worse in a matter of days.
The conflict is Ukraine is mostly between Russia and Europe. The conflict over Kashmir is between India and Pakistan. The multiple conflicts in the Middle East, as long as the US doesn't engage with Iran are also local. Taiwan would be different. A conflict in this part of the world would immediately pit China against the US. And with the stranglehold of Taiwan over semi conductors, it would be vital for both.
The next element of the geo-strategic equation is that tensions in the Taiwan Strait are rising fast and the preparations for war on both sides are on-going.
Considering its scale, such a conflict would almost automatically mark the beginning of the third World War as almost every country in the world would find itself, willingly or not on one side or the other of the fence.
Whatever you may read about the relative strengths of China and the US, the fog of war would guaranty escalation in no time. The global supply chain would go from the current pesky disruptions to complete interruption, including for vital supplies such as oil and gas. In other words, we would almost instantly find ourselves in a completely different paradigm to put it mildly.
All this is why, the high stakes gambles of the trump administration are so dangerous. The unintended consequences are so ominous and their scale so large that thinking twice would be advisable.
In the end, the ultimate question remains: What are the risks of a nuclear conflict? But in itself, this is the wrong prompt to add a more modern touch to the question. The better way to formulate the question is: In a completely different context of trade disruptions, energy supplies interruption, major social mayhem and facing an economic black hole, what are the risks of the nuclear option suddenly becoming much more palatable to the losing side?
Taiwan Special: US Color-War Patterns Emerge
The boiling point approaches
Contents (783 words)
- Backdrop
- What are Trump’s Plans for Taiwan?
- Hot-Signs of CCP Escalation
- Divided Taiwan Edges Towards Totalitarian Governance
- The USA roadmap to a Taiwan Color War
Backdrop
Authored by Mavs for Goldfix ZH Edit
The latest piece on Foreign Policy regarding Taiwan prompted the following analysis update, and the timing cannot be more appropriate. The title of that article is “Trump Should Rein in Taiwan” – as an alarmist statement it makes great practical sense however in reality Trump will probably not want to do so, rather, he may choose to play this Taiwan card against Beijing somewhere down the road.
What are Trump’s Plans for Taiwan?
It is relatively difficult to properly gauge how the Trump admin sees Taiwan for a few reasons: (1) Marco Rubio isn’t in the MAGA decision-making circle so his remarks on Taiwan shouldn’t be taken at face value, (2) William Lai and his cabinet show NO transparency in all matters pertaining to the US, and his team has no access to the top Republican ladder; (3) Trump himself is too busy dealing with the RoW, urgently needing a “win”, to even think about Taiwan.
William Lai has also done a great job so far giving Trump no reason to have to deal with Taiwan – a sharp 10% rise in TWD in a matter of weeks, volunteering an annual increase in defense budget, zero tariffs against the US, and so on. He clearly thinks he can play the US card, just ahead of his 5/20 annual inaugural speech, to further advance his Separatist movement.
Hot-Signs of CCP Escalation
In January 2022, a month before Putin pulled the trigger on the Special Military Operation, a “hot-sign” appeared – Russia moved a tremendous amount of blood supplies to the border. The term “Hot-sign” is military jargon that indicates the troops are ready and on stand-by. It usually also implies a point of no return, unless some sort of diplomatic miracle or Hand of God intervenes in last minute.
The latest Taiwan hot-sign has appeared in the cross-strait standoff. The PLA had multiple drills with their latest barges that will be carrying the combined brigades and their equipment when they land. A more detailed look into this matter can be found here. The PLA is undoubtedly ready, as we previously covered multiple times, the Joint Sword series in 2024, and the Strait Thunder-2025A are progressive in nature. There might be a Strait Thunder-2025B around 5/20, but the cold hard truth is The PLA has the ability to turn a drill into real any day from now.
The PLA’s Landing Barge...
Divided Taiwan Edges Towards Totalitarian Governance
Whenever the Western mainstream media mention Taiwan, they always seem to steer clear of one core issue that has exacerbated so fast and furious and it might even be too late to address it now. Fascism is capitalism in decay – one of Lenin’s most famous quotes from over a century agohttps://vblgoldfix.substack.com/p/taiwan-special-color-war-patterns
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