The edge of the cliff? - 8May2025

   Today marks the 80 years anniversary of the end of the Second World War. But 80 years also marks the cycle of the 4th Turning, according to Strauss–Howe generational theory, with 4 generations needed to forget and start a cycle again. And sure enough, war preparations are once again rife around the world. 

   Between long simmering fault-lines like the Indo-Pakistan border and Ukraine meaningless war which should never have flared up to start with or intractable tensions in the Middle East, Iran and the Taiwan Strait, the trends are not favourable to say the least.  

  Are we doomed, at the social level, to repeat constantly this long term cycle of prosperity, stagnation, decline, tensions, war and prosperity again? Human and AI intelligence are saying, no. Social intelligence is saying yes. 

  Real wars are almost always preceded by long rising periods of tensions as in the 1910s and the 1930s and sure enough, the war preparation cycle seems to be repeating once again. Can we avoid the doom loop? Looking at the events up close as we're having the chance right now, it unfortunately looks impossible. Human societies are complex social "animals" with their own mechanisms which seem to have their own rules and dynamics. 

  Could AI help us understand the problem and avoid the risks? Most certainly yes, but this is not what we see. The current priority is to improve weapon systems and add AI to increase accuracy and damages to the adversaries, not to build compromises.

  Looking at our reality, it is easy to understand that it is not AI which will make humans redundant. We'll do it to ourselves with increased efficiency thanks to AI. In the end, the paradox is that we are building the next level of dominant intelligence while displaying our inability to evolve at the social level beyond the current paradigm.  

  We probably should have spent less time trying to "save the planet" and more trying to save ourselves although in the end, our fate was not really in our hands. Or so will future AI  history books explain the decline of our civilization and the accent of the machines.