Growth in GDP from 2003 to 2023 (Statistics)

  How much has our world changed in 20 years from 2003 to 2023? 

  It is actually very difficult to measure. These are complex, we call them synthetic, statistics and therefore mostly meaningless as such. And still relative to each other, they have some meaning, especially in the long term so let's try to understand.

  First, it is essential to take into account the main factor of such statistics: Money. If a currency rises in value, you get artificial growth, if conversely it shrinks, you get a relative decline. 

  Second, because these statistics are "made up", you can play with countless factors. The main one is inflation which governments love to minimize since it gives you access to "free" money. A major discovery of the 1990s was the "hedonistic adjustment", justified by the fact that you could not fully account for the better air conditioning of new cars, the quality of CD players and better door knobs! In the end, most governments succeeded in minimizing inflation by close to half. 

  There are other factors, but with these two in mind, let's read the table below:

  In 2003, the US was the main economic power in the world, so we'll take the US as our baseline. If inflation was understated by about half, the growth of the US was about 75% over the period. Not bad. Conversely, the growth of Europe was about half at 30 %. Rather anemic since this is about 1.3% of growth per year.

  Russia was rebounding from the crash of the Soviet Union, so a doubling seems about right. Likewise Brazil and Turkey saw significant growth marred by inflation, where Istanbul looks more and more on the path to reclaim its preeminence of the old Byzantine times. 

  What is most impressive of course is the X10 growth of China, where unlike in the West, deflation has been a major factor, and surprisingly of India and Indonesia at x4 (Inflation). And then of course, the absolute decline of Japan. The Yen has not helped much to say the least but still. Today, Japan is little more than a shadow of its former self.

  So what comes next? Demography is by far the most predictable long term statistical data. And demography is telling us that by 2125, so in 100 years, Japan will have less than 30 million people and Korea less than 10! Probably not where you should invest your money long term!