Did you notice how upset Trump looked as he was losing his mind with profanities and grave menaces over the weekend? Something must have gone very wrong but what?
Let's try to link the dots: We saw the remains of large transport planes C130 and helicopters left behind supposedly after the successful extraction of a F15 pilot as well as identity documents of special force units. Obviously, this cannot have been the true story. Clearly, the mission was to extract the Uranium concentrate allegedly stored in Isfahan and it failed. That much is now the consensus among most analysts.
But what if the true story is even worse than that?
The special forces were indeed sent to recover the Uranium. That much is certain as it fits both the location and the size of the force dispatched. But it is likely that the Iranians were waiting in ambush which is the reason why the planes could land but never take off again. In the ensuing firefight, the Americans (and some Israelis?) where taken prisoner and discreetly transported to a secure location becoming unwittingly a formidable bargaining chip for the Iranians.
Trump is not a fan of history as he himself professes to never have read a book in his life but what happened to Jimmy Carter must nevertheless be in his mind as for over a year in 1979, the hostages taken by the Iranians at the US Embassy in Tehran both doomed the presidency of the former President and cost him his reelection against Ronald Reagan.
The master stroke of the Iranians this time was not to inform anyone (except the American negotiators of course!) about these "hostages" using them skillfully to negotiate with Trump. This would explain the duration of the negotiations (2 weeks) and the fact that Trump more or less de facto agreed to the Iranian demands.
If this interpretation is correct, 1 - We will probably never hear about these soldiers who will most likely be exchanged very discreetly. 2 - Trump must be extremely angry with Netanyahu who lured him into this strategic catastrophe. This conversely may help him cut a deal with the Iranians if only to spite the Israelis.
My guess is that we will never know the truth about this operation gone bad. But what happens in the coming days should give us some hints. Netanyahu will try to scuttle the deal but being in a very weak position, this will be far more difficult this time.
The Iranians will confirm that they have no intention of building a bomb which Trump will use to claim victory while accepting that a toll on Hormuz is now necessary to rebuild Iran.
In the end, the main winners, paradoxically, will be the non participants. Oman, because to be acceptable and appear legitimate the toll cannot be exclusively Iranian. And China, as suddenly Iran will have "boat-loads" of Yuan to spend and China will be more than delighted to provide all the engineering necessary to rebuild roads, bridges, ports and other facilities as part of the new Silk Road.
[All this is of course just a plausible scenario of what took place over the weekend. But look at what remains of the airplanes and try to imagine how other planes took off safely with all the people and no casualties... ]
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