'Open The F**kin' Strait'

   Does anybody in the US realize how unhinged Trump sounds to the rest of the world?

   Conversely, Iran is taking an existential stand against the US. Clearly, a couple of bridges and power plants out are going to be painful, but they must have figured out from the beginning that when push comes to shove, the pressure would rise significantly if you endanger the petro-dollar system. We are talking about oil at or above 200 USD per barrel in a couple of months, the deepest recession since the 1930s. It's a trap. Economic and geographic, and it looks more and more that Trump will rush into it. 

   Unfortunately for the US, 2026 is not 1966. The US is broke and so is practically most of the West, which means that there will be real choices to make between pensions and weapons in the coming months. Conversely the balance of power between America and China has changed drastically. If the US decides to engage itself deeper in the Iranian quagmire, then the ability of the country to keep a major presence on other continents will wither dramatically.      

   Most empires crumble when they over-extend themselves. This is well known and confirmed by countless examples. So nothing new under the sun, then? Well, kind of, although the process itself could obviously be rather violent. 

   The true question now is to know if we can avoid a nuclear conflagration. A year or two ago, the risk was already there but the question was still mostly academic. Now, we are talking "existential" for Iran and soon enough for the US empire too. The pressure is building up very quickly. If Iran takes possession of the Hormuz Strait, which de facto is already the case, they become instantly an "oil" super-power and the US conversely is relegated to one among many. Rarely have the stakes been so high. Las Vegas against Sun Tsu. "Rien ne va plus!..."  

   

'Open The F**kin' Strait': Trump Threatens To 'Blow Everything Up' If No Iran Deal By Tuesday

Summary: 

• Trump offers Iranian negotiators amnesty, threatens to 'blow everything up' if no deal

• IEA Head warns Asia (implying Beijing) is panic hoarding fuel

• Trump warns Iran 'Open the Fuckin' Strait' or "you'll be living in hell'

Trump Talks With Fox Reporter About US-Iran Negotiations 

Shortly after President Trump wrote on Truth Social, "Open the Fuckin' Strait, you crazy bastards, or you'll be living in Hell - JUST WATCH! Praise be to Allah," the president spoke with Fox News reporter Trey Yingst for 15 minutes early Sunday.

Trump provided Yingst with new details on the behind-the-scenes negotiations with the Iranians and what would happen if Iran does not reach a good-faith deal.

Yingst said Trump told him, "If they don't make a deal, and fast, I'm considering blowing everything up and taking over the oil." The reporter went on to say that the president added that if there is no deal, bridges and power plants will go down all over the country.

Yingst asked the president about the possibility of an agreement with the Iranians. The president said those negotiating on behalf of Tehran have been granted amnesty for now so they can continue the talks.

The reporter noted that Trump thinks a deal can be reached by Monday. Trump said, "I think there's a good chance tomorrow. They're negotiating now."

International Energy Agency Head Warns Of Panic Hoarding Oil In Asia

International Energy Agency chief Fatih Birol told the Financial Times this weekend that governments must avoid panic hoarding and refrain from imposing fuel export bans as the Gulf energy shock ripples outward to Asia, Africa, Europe, and eventually reaches the US West Coast.

"I urge all countries not to impose bans or restrictions on exports," Fatih Birol emphasized in the interview. "It is the worst time when you look at the global oil markets. Their trade partners, their allies and their neighbors will suffer as a result."

The FT noted that Birol was "careful not to name China directly," but made very clear his warning was likely aimed at Beijing, which has already moved to restrict exports of critical refined products, including gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel.

Birol said that "major countries in Asia who hold major refineries" should reconsider their current bans, adding, "If those countries continue to restrict or totally ban exports, the impact on the Asian markets will be dramatic."

Birol's hoarding warning in Asia comes shortly after the IEA's coordinated release of 400 million barrels from emergency reserves. Such hoarding by major countries would directly undercut efforts to stabilize global energy markets. He also warned that if the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz persists, losses of crude and refined products in April could reach roughly double the levels seen in March.

Early in the US-Iran conflict, energy economist Anas Alhajji joined UBS analysts on a call in which he warned of panic hoarding risks in the oil market. He said that he questioned back in January why the Trump administration was hoarding Venezuela's oil after the Maduro raid, instead of bringing it to market.

Alhajji noted then, "I'm not talking about conspiracy theories. We were criticizing the Trump administration, companies, and trading houses that bought Venezuelan oil, and asking why they weren't able to sell it to end users and why they were hoarding it. Now we know." He was implying that this hoarding was in preparation for Operation Epic Fury.

Asia has been hit hardest so far. JPMorgan's top commodities expert warned about the falling dominoes of how the energy shock transmits from Asia, then spreads to Africa and Europe, before reaching the US, especially California, shortly thereafter.

Source

"Unfortunately, we see that some countries are adding to their existing stocks during our coordinated oil stock release," Birol said. "They are stocking up. This is not helpful. In my view, this is a time for all countries to prove they are responsible members of the international community."

Jeff Currie of Carlyle recently outlined the hoarding risks in a note titled "A Crude Awakening": "The physical shortfall is the trigger; the behavioral response is the multiplier."

Trump Tells Tehran: "Open the Fuckin' Strait" 

Earlier on Easter morning, President Trump unleashed a fierce message on Truth Social: "Tuesday will be Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran. There will be nothing like it!!! Open the Fuckin' Strait, you crazy bastards, or you'll be living in Hell."

Is the pressure building on Trump from the rest of the world (and domestically) to end this 'operation'? And/or are we getting closer to quagmire-inducing boots on the ground?