Very interesting article about AI although it goes into all kinds of directions. If you ignore the pro-Chinese, anti system rhetoric, you're left with some interesting questions marks.
As a former developer and now heavy used of AI, I remain ambivalent on the subject. As many people, 10 years ago, I expected the future to arrive more slowly but then again with the experience of the last 10 years, in retrospect, this would have changed absolutely nothing. We would not have been one iota better prepared in 2035 than in 2025. That much is certain.
Now what? I often discuss this issue with o1 and we agree (OK it basically always agrees with everything although it does it intelligently with much intellectual power and support with relevant examples! :-) that the future of AI is unknowable. It represents a dimensional expansion of the density of information connections from a circle to a sphere and although the result can be projected from 3D to 2D, the new level of complexity cannot be understood or grasped easily.
We also agree that this is not an avoidable curse but a fundamental law of the Universe (I call it the complexification of arranging information) being applied to our society. So like it or not this is quasi unavoidable. Are we summoning the demons? Not necessarily. Higher intelligence represents "progress" although of course, if you are an australopithecus you may beg to disagree. Will we regret the move if we are eventually replaced at the top of the food chain? Probably? Maybe but this is unknowable. My expectation is that evolution will explore new aspects of the Universe. Ask a dinosaur about the future of evolution and you would have got a bigger dinosaur still!. Ask a human about the future of mankind and you get the Star Trek "Enterprise", i.e. a bigger dinosaur! The new paradigm of AI will transform once again the direction of evolution with a new dimension of increased density of information which through an accelerated evolutive arm race (the singularity?) will birth a world which complexity we cannot begin to imagine. In this context, fear of a new AI overlord is completely misplaced. If the rise of mankind is an indication of what to expect, from an animal point of view, it depends. You can be a beast, a pet, a cattle, a nuisance, an amusement... All that is 2D. Now imagine the same in 3D!
Guest Post by Mike Whitney

The future of
humanity is being decided as we speak. And it is not being decided on a
battlefield in Eastern Europe, or the Middle East or the Taiwan Strait,
but in the data centers and research facilities where technology experts
create “the physical and virtual infrastructure to power the next
generation of Artificial Intelligence.” This is a full-blown,
scorched-earth free-for-all that has already racked up a number of
casualties though you wouldn’t know it from reading the headlines which
typically ignore recent ‘cataclysmic’ developments.
But when President Trump announced the launching of a $500 billion AI infrastructure project (Stargate) on Tuesday just hours after China had released its DeepSeek R1—which “outperforms its rivals in advanced coding, math, and general knowledge capabilities”—it
became painfully obvious that the battle for the future ‘is on’ in a
big way. And this is not a battle that either side can afford to lose.
Here’s how technology expert Adam Button summed it up:
Imagine we’re
back in 2017 and the iPhone X was just released. It was selling $999
and Apple was crushing sales and building a wide moat around its
ecosystem.
Now imagine,
just days later, another company introduced a phone and platform that
was equal in every way if not better and the price was just $30.
That’s what
unfolded in the AI space today. China’s DeepSeek released an opensource
model that works on par with OpenAI’s latest models but costs a tiny
fraction to operate. Moreover, you can even download it and run it free (or the cost of your electricity) for yourself.
The product is a
huge leap in terms of scaling and efficiency and may upend expectations
of how much power and compute will be needed to manage the AI
revolution. It also comes just hours before Trump is expected to unveil a $100 billion investment in US datacenters. The
model shows there are different ways to train foundational AI models
that offer up the same results with much less cost. It also opens up far
more applications for AI that would have been too expensive to run
previously, which should broaden the applications in the real economy. China’s DeepSeek may have just upended the economics of AI, forex live
Imagine the panic
that is spreading across western tech capitals right now. AI was
supposed to be the fast-track to absolute societal control and
oligarchic rule into the next millennia, but now those pesky Chinese
have overturned the applecart leaving western elites with a problem they
might not be able to fix. (See—Unchecked AI will lead us to a police state,
edri ) They expected that their microchip sanctions would sabotage
China’s AI efforts for at least a decade-or-so but, instead, China has
come roaring back with a system that has left the tech giants gasping
for air.
Of course,
China’s eye-popping strides in technological development are nothing new
as editor Ron Unz pointed out in a recent article where he noted that “between
2003 and 2007, the US led in 60 of the 64 technologies.” Whereas, as of
2022, “China led in 52 of the 64 technologies.” That’s not a
competition; that’s a beat-down in a parking lot. Here’s Unz:
China now leads
the world in many of the most important future technologies. The success
of its commercial companies in telecommunications (Huawei, Zongxin), EV
(BYD, Geely, Great Wall, etc.), battery (CATL, BYD) and Photovoltaics
(Tongwei Solar, JA, Aiko, etc.) are directly built on such R&D
prowess.
Similarly, the
Chinese military’s modernization is built on the massive technological
development of the country’s scientific community and its industrial
base…. With its lead in science and technology research, China is
positioned to outcompete the US in both economic and military arenas in
the coming years…. American Pravda: China vs. America, Ron Unz, Unz Review
None of this
should come as a surprise, although the timing of DeepSeek’s release
(preempting Trump’s Stargate announcement) shows that the Chinese don’t
mind throwing a wrench in Washington’s global strategy if it serves
their regional interests, which it undoubtedly does. Here’s a bit more
background from an article by Benj Edwards at Ars Technica:
On Monday,
Chinese AI lab DeepSeek released its new R1 model family under an open
MIT license, with its largest version containing 671 billion parameters.
The company claims the model performs at levels comparable to
OpenAI’s o1 simulated reasoning (SR) model on several math and coding
benchmarks….
The releases
immediately caught the attention of the AI community because most
existing open-weights models—have lagged behind proprietary models like
OpenAI’s o1 in so-called reasoning benchmarks. …
The R1 model
works differently from typical large language models ….They attempt to
simulate a human-like chain of thought as the model works through a
solution to the query. This class of what one might call “simulated reasoning” models, or SR models for short, emerged when OpenAI debuted its o1 model family in September 2024. …
DeepSeek
reports that R1 outperformed OpenAI’s o1 on several benchmarks and
tests, including AIME (a mathematical reasoning test), MATH-500 (a
collection of word problems), and SWE-bench Verified (a programming
assessment tool)….
TechCrunch
reports that three Chinese labs—DeepSeek, Alibaba, and Moonshot AI’s
Kimi—have now released models they say match OpenAI’s o1’s capabilities,
with DeepSeek first previewing R1 in November. Cutting-edge Chinese “reasoning” model rivals OpenAI o1—and it’s free to download, ars technica
This is a very big deal. The United States intends to dominate the world in this critical technology and yet the
upstart Chinese have not only produced a system that is every bit as
good as America’s best, but have made it more affordable, more
accessible and more transparent. What’s not to like?
(Note—OpenAI is
an American artificial intelligence (AI) research laboratory. It is made
up of the non-profit OpenAI Incorporated and its for-profit
subsidiary corporation OpenAI Limited Partnership. OpenAI has emerged to
be one of the primary leaders of the generative AI era. OpenAI is a
privately held company that has open sourced some of its technology, but
it has not open sourced most of its technology…. In contrast, DeepSeek
AI R1 is open source which means its code is publicly accessible—anyone
can see, modify, and distribute the code as they see fit. Open source software is developed in a decentralized and collaborative way, relying on peer review and community production.)
Here’s more from political analyst Arnaud Bertrand in a post on X:
Most people
probably don’t realize how bad the news (about) China’s Deepseek is for
OpenAI. They’ve come up with a model that matches and even exceeds
OpenAI’s latest model o1 on various benchmarks, and they’re charging
just 3% of the price. It’s essentially as if someone had released a
mobile on par with the iPhone but was selling it for $30 instead of
$1000. It’s this dramatic.
What’s more,
they’re releasing it open-source so you even have the option – which
OpenAI doesn’t offer – of not using their API at all and running the
model for “free” yourself.
If you’re an
OpenAI customer today you’re obviously going to start asking yourself
some questions, like “wait, why exactly should I be paying 30X more?”.
This is pretty transformational stuff, it fundamentally challenges the
economics of the market….
So basically,
it looks like the game has changed. All thanks to a Chinese company
that just demonstrated how U.S. tech restrictions can backfire
spectacularly – by forcing them to build more efficient solutions that
they’re now sharing with the world at 3% of OpenAI’s prices. As the saying goes, sometimes pressure creates diamonds. @RnaudBertrand
Get the picture?
Everything the US has done to stymie China’s development—including
economic sanctions, chips embargoes, military provocations, political
meddling, even arresting a Huawei executive (truly pathetic)—has blown
up in their faces. China’s well-educated, highly motivated,
technologically adept workforce have produced a model of AI that equals
or exceeds the best the West has to offer at a fraction of the cost and
with open sourcing that allows users to
modify, and distribute the code as they see fit.
So, which
version of AI sounds like a genuine benefit to humankind and which
sounds like another scheme for transforming the world into a dystopian
police-state controlled by aspiring tyrants and psychopathic control
freaks? Here’s more from Bertrand on ‘why China is making AI available
so cheap:
….it speaks
to a different philosophy/vision on AI: ironically named “OpenAI” is
basically about trying to establish a monopoly by establishing a moat
with massive amounts of GPU and money. Deepseek is clearly betting on a
future where AI becomes a commodity, widely available and affordable to
everyone. By pricing so aggressively and releasing their code
open-source, they’re not just competing with OpenAI but basically
declaring that AI should be like electricity or internet connectivity – a
basic utility that powers innovation rather than a premium service
controlled by a few players. And in that world, it’s a heck of a lot
better to be the first mover who helped make it happen than the legacy
player who tried to stop it. @RnaudBertrand
(Creepy Larry Ellison predicts “citizens will be on their best behavior” with an AI police-state surveillance system.)
So, it’s
basically like everything else in this sick, twisted world where a
handful of money-grubbing miscreants muscle their way into a new
technology so they can fatten their own bank accounts while planting
their bootheel firmly on the neck of humanity. It seems to me that
China’s approach is vastly superior in that it’s clearly aimed at
providing the benefits of AI to the greatest number of people at the
lowest possible cost. Here are a few random comments on China’s DeepSeek
AI that I picked off X that show how excited people are about this
groundbreaking version:
The
ramifications of this are huge. Every day China does something
incredible, totally unlike the stagnation of the EU, talking all day
while accomplishing nothing, or the latest evil plan oozing out of DC. This is just brilliant. & inspiring. & it WILL earn them more goodwill @CaptainCrusty66
It’s the china recipe book for success for every industry where western oligopolies have dominated. @bbooker450
AI will become a part of everyday infrastructure like electricity and tap water. DeepSeek is a signficant step towards that, thanks to its cost reduction and open source nature @MrBig2024
We are living in a timeline where a non-US company is keeping the original mission of OpenAI alive – truly open, frontier research that empowers all…. @DrJimFan
This is
cool…this isn’t just another open source LLM release. this is o1-level
reasoning capabilities that you can run locally, that you can modify and
that you can study…
that’s a very different world than the one we were in yesterday. Al, comments line
Price
comparison of OpenAI o1 and DeepSeek AI R1: R1 is significantly cheaper
across all categories (96–98% savings). Now you know why big
organizations don’t want open-source to continue, If humanity is ever
going to benefit from AI, it will be from open-source . @ai_for_success
China is overturning mainstream development theory in astonishing ways. China’s
GDP per capita is only $12,000. That’s 70% less than the average in
high-income countries. And yet they have the largest high-speed rail
network in the world. They’ve developed their own commercial aircraft.
They are the world leaders in renewable energy technology and electric
vehicles. They have advanced medical technology, smartphone technology,
microchip production, aerospace engineering… China has a higher life
expectancy than the USA, with 80% less income. We were told that this
kind of development required very high levels of GDP/cap. But over the
past 10 years China has demonstrated that it can be achieved with much
more modest levels of output. How do they do it? By using public
finance and industrial policy to steer investment and production toward
social objectives and national development needs. This allows them to
convert aggregate production into development outcomes much more
efficiently than other countries, where productive capacity is often
wasted on activities that may be highly profitable to capital, or
beneficial to the rich, but may not actually advance development. Of
course, China still has development gaps that need to be addressed. And
we know from some other countries that higher social indicators can be
achieved with China’s level of GDP/cap, by focusing more on social
policy. But the achievements are undeniable, and development economists
are taking stock. @jasonhickel
JULIAN ASSANGE
says ‘Artificial intelligence is being used for mass assassinations in
Gaza’ …“The majority of targets in Gaza are bombed as a result of
artificial intelligence targeting.” ..It has been revealed that Google
provided the Israeli military with AI tools in the early weeks of the
genocide.
Unfortunately,
the intensity of the competition between the US and China, ignores the
inherent risks of Artificial Intelligence and its looming threat to
human survival. In a recent analytical piece by the Rand Corporation
titled AI and Geopolitics: How Might AI Affect the Rise and Fall of Nations?,
the authors provide a disturbing window into a future in which
“AI-enabled machines—of equivalent or greater intelligence and,
potentially, highly disruptive capabilities” could pose a threat to our
own existence. Keep in mind, the line between our historic reality and
science fiction has already been crossed just as the probability that
our own creation, AI, is likely “to become an actor, not just a factor”
in the existential challenges faced by our species. Here’s a short blurb
from this truly unsettling article:
Although
technology has often influenced geopolitics, the prospect of AI means
that the technology itself could become a geopolitical actor. AI
could have motives and objectives that differ considerably from those of
governments and private companies. Humans’ inability to comprehend how
AI “thinks” and our limited understanding of the second- and third-order
effects of our commands or requests of AI are also very troubling.
Humans have enough trouble interacting with one another. It remains to
be seen how we will manage our relationships with one or more AIs….
We are entering an era of both enlightenment and chaos…
The borderless nature of AI makes it hard to control or regulate.
As computing power expands, models are optimized, and open-source
frameworks mature, the ability to create highly impactful AI
applications will become increasingly diffuse. In such a world,
well-intentioned researchers and engineers will use this power to do
wonderful things, ill-intentioned individuals will use it to do terrible things, and AIs could do both wonderful and terrible things.
The net result is neither an unblemished era of enlightenment nor an
unmitigated disaster, but a mix of both. Humanity will learn to muddle
through and live with this game-changing technology, just as we have
with so many other transformative technologies in the past….
The potential
dangers posed by AI are many. At the extreme, they include the threat
of human extinction, which could come about by an AI-enabled
catastrophe, such as a well-designed virus that spreads easily, evades
detection, and destroys our civilization. Less dire, but considerably worrisome, is the threat to democratic governance if AIs gain power over people….
AI cannot be contained through regulation,
so the best policy will aim to minimize the harm that AI might do. This
will probably be most critical in biosecurity,[3] but harm reduction
also includes countering cybersecurity threats, strengthening democratic
resilience, and developing emergency response options for a wide
variety of threats from state and sub- and non-state actors…..
In light of the
likely very widespread proliferation of advanced AI capabilities to
private- and public-sector actors and well-resourced individuals,
governments should work closely with leading private-sector entities to
develop advanced forecasting tools, wargames, and strategic plans for dealing with what experts anticipate will be a wide variety of unexpected AI-enabled catastrophic events. AI and Geopolitics: How Might AI Affect the Rise and Fall of Nations?, RAND
In other words,
humanity should encourage their business and political leaders to
exercise sound judgement and prepare for unexpected disasters that could
terminate the species.
That is simply not sufficient defense for the challenge we face.