Ukraine is winning the war!

  Go to YouTube and type: "Ukraine is winning the war". You will be stunned as you get a biblical deluge of whatever can be scrapped from the Internet of mostly fake but also old videos. Propaganda on steroid.

  No wonder the European leaders are lost in delusion. If this is what you watch from dawn to dusk, in the end how can you not believe that David is slaying Goliath in real time? Maps showing the relentless advance of the Russian army? Just show the retreat without context from the Kiev, Kharkov and Kherson areas at the beginning of 2022 and suddenly the current "fall back" of the Ukrainian army looks less ominous. Explosions in Kiev? Likewise, highlight a big fire at a Russian oil refinery to show that Ukraine is indeed weakening the Russian juggernaut preventing a full scale attack on Europe. And on, and on without respite.

  As always, in such circumstances, the fog of war is thick and propaganda is rife. Each side will necessarily present the interpretation of reality which serves its interest best and to some extent confirms what they want to believe. Fair enough. 

  But when high command starts believing its own propaganda and losing touch with reality, defeat inevitably looms over the horizon. Cherry picking feats of heroism in the mist of destruction is not a long term viable strategy. And as people realize that what they've been shown was not accurate, instead of changing their opinion, they invent bigger lies and their anger instead of being rightly directed at their own credulity focus on the dissonant messages they can neither process nor accept. Think Berlin 1945.

  The question nowadays, not only for Russia but for the rest of the world is how to manage this anger without generating a conflagration from which absolutely nobody can win.     

  This is in fact what we saw when Xi Jinping met Macron in Beijing last week or earlier when Putin met with Trump. Exploration of elusive off-ramps for intractable conflicts, more to avoid escalation than to solve "problems with no easy solutions". (The words of Trump which actually mean Europe and his own deep state are dead against the compromises he is proposing.)    

  In the end, the war in Ukraine can only conclude not with the total military defeat of Ukraine, which is a done deal, but because Europe is fully invested in the war, the financial failure of Europe. This is why the stakes are so high. Defeat is not something that any country can contemplate lightly. The first world war lasted 5 years from 1914 to 1918 as this was the time necessary to defeat Germany economically. The second world war likewise lasted 5 years in Europe and 4 years in the Pacific. Again, as this was the time necessary to exhaust both Japan and Germany's military and industrial machines thoroughly.

  Based on these precedents, without the participation of the US, it will probably take another year at most for Europe to give up financially. As we approach defeat, the stakes will rise and tensions likewise. But in the end, the outcome is painted starkly on the wall: Europe played for broke and lost. The world "casino" will not extend credit. Out in the depth of the night, under the rain and destitute. The morning after will be hard for Europe!

  Their last hope is a Pearl Harbor moment. Provocations upon provocations until Russia over-reacts and Trump is finally forced against his better judgement to do "something". Not to lose on this political front, Russia will have to thread a fine line between effective dissuasion (Not so easy when the other party is desperate.) and avoiding being pulled in a spiral of retaliations. The coming months will be fraught with risks.