Spoke my Mind (Joke)

   Remember the old times, before 2000? Wherever you went then, people would freely give their opinion, disagree openly around a cup of coffee in a cafe in Paris or a pint in a pub in London and you could still be good friends. And I am not talking about Latin countries or even Ireland where you would see the same but on steroid.  

  Then people were radicalized, for or against anti-terror restrictions, for or against illegal foreigners, for or against woke and DEI policies. for or against vaccines, for or against wars, wherever they were taking place and nothing was the same anymore. 

  Suddenly, you had to be careful about what you said or what you posted unconsciously online. There would be repercussions. Up to and including losing your job for a trifling post. We do not have, yet, brown shirt people walking in the streets but they are already trolling the Internet, policing "wrong-think" as if they had read "1984" as an instruction manual.    

  The propaganda level, especially in Western Europe is such that for those old enough, it reminds of the not-so-good old days of the Soviet Union. Non-stop vilification of the "enemy" external and especially internal, the famous 5th column. 

  Worse, the polarization has also reached science where likewise you cannot speak freely about any contentious subject. Virologists can't speak about virus if it contradicts the government's official position, Climate scientists understand that if they do not pick up data carefully, funding will dry up faster than snow on a hot Summer day, etc, etc... 

  The war on free speech is relentless. Fortunately, the younger generations were born with this background noise and for the large majority, understand intuitively what should and shouldn't be said. AI should have an easy job policing the few recalcitrants. As for the heretics, well, didn't they invite their fate on themselves? 

 

Trump To Impose 30% Tariffs On Mexico and the European Union

  This post is just to stay up to date with trump attempted efforts to re-balance the US trade deficit. But the key to understand the issue is that you cannot both have a world currency and no trade deficit. This is not possible. The US deficit is what feeds the world appetite for dollars. If and when you reduce the deficit, automatically, you will end up with a shortage of dollars. The dollar would either have to rise sharply although this is unlikely with the current huge US budget deficits or other countries would/will have to use other means to trade, the most likely outcome. So in other words, trump is obliging other countries to trade in their currencies while saying that he will punish them for doing so. 

  Everybody understands that the current system is not viable so the US should propose a Breton Woods 2.0 to try to find a new balance. It would not be easy but at least it would be a step in the right direction. Instead, the US is trying to force a re-balance of its trade regardless of the economic consequences for other countries. This is extremely short sighted. It will accelerate the BRICS integration and conversely the disintegration of the dollar market. These things are complex and do not happen in a day, like tectonic forces. But when they finally do happen, you risk a very big earthquake.     

Trump To Impose 30% Tariffs On Mexico, European Union

President Trump on Saturday morning fired off two trade warning letters via Truth Social, threatening to impose 30% tariffs on all Mexican and European imports starting August 1. The warning to Mexico hinges on action to curb the flow of fentanyl and dismantle drug cartels, while the threat to Europe demands an end to long-standing trade imbalances driven by EU tariffs and non-tariff barriers. This caps off a week of letters sent to America's top trade partners, with tariff threats used as a negotiation tool by the Trump administration to seal deals.

"Despite our strong relationship, you will recall, the United States imposed Tariffs on Mexico to deal with our Nation's Fentanyl crisis, which is caused, in part, by Mexico's failure to stop the Cartels, who are made up of the most despicable people who ever walked the Earth, from pouring these drugs into our country," Trump said in the letter addressed to Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo. 

He continued, "Mexico has been helping me secure the border, BUT, what Mexico has done, is not enough. Mexico still has not stopped the Cartels who are trying to turn all of North America into a Narco-Trafficking Playground." 

Here are the key points in the letter:

• 30% tariff will apply to all Mexican imports unless action is taken.

• Tariff waivers will be granted for companies that build or manufacture in the U.S.

• If Mexico raises tariffs in retaliation, the U.S. will match them on top of the 30%.

• Adjust tariffs if Mexico successfully confronts the cartels and halts fentanyl trafficking

Copy of the letter that was posted on Trump's Truth Social:

The second letter Trump was addressed to Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, in which he informed Brussels that he would impose a 30% tariff on all EU products starting August 1, unless long-standing trade imbalances—driven by EU tariffs and non-tariff barriers—are addressed.

"The European Union, despite having one of our largest Trade Deficits with you. Nevertheless, we have decided to move forward, but only with more balanced and fair TRADE," the president said. 

He emphasized:

• The U.S. market is open and fair, but EU practices have created an unsustainable trade deficit.

• The 30% tariff applies separately from any sectoral tariffs and will be higher for goods transshipped to avoid it.

• No tariffs will be applied if EU companies manufacture within the U.S.

• The EU must allow full market access to the U.S. or face higher tariffs.

• Retaliatory EU tariffs will be met with additional levies.

Trump warned that this trade deficit with the EU is a "major threat to our Economy and, indeed, our National Security!" 

Copy of the letter that was posted on Trump's Truth Social:

This past week, the Trump administration sent out two dozen trade warning letters to countries.

Let's recap the week with the most important trade headlines:

• Trade Crackdown: 14 Countries Receive Tariff Letters Including Japan, South Korea And Thailand

• Tariff Time Again: Trump Sends Trade Letters Ahead Of Deadline, Threatens 10% Tariff On BRICS-Aligned Nations

• Trump Says BRICS Members Will Get Additional 10% Tariffs Over De-Dollarization Attempt

• Trump To Impose 35% Canadian Tariff, But USMCA Goods To Stay Exempt

• Copper Soars To Record High As Trump Unleashes 50% Tariff

Space weather: Should we worry?

   What's going on with the weather? Is the Sun extreme activity messing up our atmosphere? Nobody knows!

   What we know is the following; The Earth has been warming up slightly for the last 200 years, since the Little Ice Age which ended in the 18th Century. Since, we have been going back to a new "optimum" similar to the Middle Ages and Roman optimums which were on average about 1C hotter than what we have today. This would indicate that we have some more warming coming (if we accept this theory based on a cyclical understanding of the atmosphere.) 

   What could interfere with this cycle? 3 possible causes:

  1 - The ocean current cycle called the "thermohaline circulation." Modeling thermohaline circulation's impact on the atmosphere is extremely complex and involves integrating various scientific disciplines, including oceanography, meteorology, and climate science to understand how heat, water vapor and CO2 are exchanged between different medium. Often, these deep currents are called fossil weather, as the heat can be transported for centuries before resurfacing, up to 2,000 years later. 

  2 - Space weather. This too is very complex since the Sun radiations vary according to an 11 year cycle (We have just passed the maximum) The Sun is consequently bombarding our planet with particles which will either strengthen or weaken our Earth magnetic field (the famous Van Hallen belts) When the belts are weaker, cosmic particles tend to reach lower in the atmosphere, generating a denser cloud cover which conversely reflects better our own solar radiations, cooling the planet.  

  3 - CO2 and H2O which both absorb energy as visible radiations and re-emit the energy as infra-red radiations which tend to be reabsorbed by the atmosphere instead of being radiated back into space. 

  In order to modelize and understand this complexity, we have climate data going back 150 years and satellite data (more accurate) but only going back about 50 years. So current models are built to mimic what happened mostly during the 20th Century which we know was a rather quiet and event-less period of human history.   

  What we are observing right now is that for the last 20 years, the jet Streams have been acting up, and instead of circling the poles as they used to do, they are now creating loops forcing cold air down and hot air up to the Arctic. This is why we see all the recent wild swings in temperatures jumping from extremely hot to very cold rapidly, relatively speaking, with wild thunderstorms and torrential rains in between.

  Is this normal? Nobody knows because the precise historical records are not long enough. We know that such events have happened in the past but were they more frequent than today at some time, we cannot be certain. 

  What could go wrong? History and especially geology are telling us that a lot could go very wrong. A Carrington event, which last took place in September 1859, which is a mass ejection of particles by the Sun could happen at any time during a solar maximum and would fry many satellites, crash the electric grid as well as having an unknown impact on the atmosphere. We are aware of several such events during the last 2,000 years, so they are neither rare nor very frequent.  

  The West is currently obsessing about CO2 which to my opinion is a secondary issue. We would do better at this stage to invest billions to protect the great forests of Africa, South East Asia and South America than waste money on dubious solution which in any case will have almost no impact neither in the short nor in the long term. Most CO2 from now on will be produced by developing countries and what Europe does in the coming years especially will have no impact whatsoever on the weather.  

  But saying such things in countries like Germany nowadays would immediately label you as a heretic and guaranty being cancelled on social medias. Similarly hot weather in England is reported as proof of Global Warming but unseasonable snow storms in Russia or Argentina at the same time are brushed under the carpet as inconvenient facts. 

  Having studied carefully the variables in climate models for over 20 years, the only thing I am certain about is that we still know very little about the weather. There are still many emergent factors which are escaping our understanding and can therefore raise their heads at any time, to the utmost surprise of climate scientists which only recourse is to rush to adjust their models the Bayesian way by including the new data as fast as they can.  

"Now That Is A Coronal Hole. Whoa Momma." 

Ben Davidson of Space Weather News issued a warning on X overnight about an Earth-facing coronal hole that could eject fast-moving solar wind toward Earth, potentially triggering elevated geomagnetic activity, including auroras and geomagnetic storms. The high-speed stream is expected to reach Earth within days.

"Now THAT is a coronal hole. Whoa momma," Davidson said, adding,"Excess magnitude/volcanic watch is in play now. Solar wind enhancement expected Saturday/Sunday/Monday."

Solarham, a solar storm monitoring website, warned, "The onset of a coronal hole stream was not expected until within the next few days." 

On Thursday, Solarham described the "Coronal Hole to Face Earth" that will begin impact Earth this weekend:

A large coronal hole will begin to face Earth this weekend. A solar wind stream flowing from this zone is expected to reach Earth beginning July 12th with the main influence by July 13/14. It is possible that a geomagnetic storm watch will be issued in the days ahead.

As of Friday morning, Solarham data shows all quiet across the Western Hemisphere. 

For context, disturbances in Earth's magnetosphere—triggered by solar activity such as coronal mass ejections (CMEs)—can impact the modern economy in multiple ways, including degrading satellite systems and GPS, disrupting power grids and high-frequency communications, and more.

A Carrington-class storm would be absolutely catastrophic for the world, potentially causing trillions of dollars in economic damage globally.

FBI's 'Raw' Epstein Prison Video Was Likely Doctored: Wired

   Epstein, from bad to worse! 

   We now know or can deduct directly that:

   1 - Most of the establishment in Washington is implicated in the Epstein scandal one way or another. (2,000 people are said to be on the list.) Just look at the complete silence from the Democrats! 

   2 - Epstein was a Mossad asset which main job was entrapment. This has been confirmed by former spies over the years. 

   3 - And now, we understand from this "fake" video that Epstein was probably exfiltrated and is therefore NOT dead. This had already been confirmed by another inmate who shared the jail of Epstein earlier and said that "It was impossible to hang yourself in that jail." and by Virginia Guiffre who said in her posthumous video, that she was, unfortunately, very dead, but not from suicide, and that conversely she believed that Epstein was still alive. 

  I think so too. Imagine that like Epstein, your job is to entrap powerful people. You understand and live with the risk of assassination at any time. The very first thing you will do is create incriminating files to be released automatically in case of death as an insurance policy. We have seen nothing = Epstein is NOT dead! 

  But this is just the thriller part of the story. The real and much more important aspect is that both the US and most other Western Governments are either infiltrated or under control of Israel. This explains the lukewarm and proforma condemnations of the crimes of the Netanyahu Government but also the financing and arming of Israel.  

  What's next then? Most probably, nothing. It can go on like this for a long time. The medias are under control and most people simply do not want to know. Only when the financial structure starts wobbling will the truth emerge. By then, nobody will care. If tomorrow, the role of the CIA was made clear in the Kennedy assassination, what would change? All the protagonists and witnesses are dead. It would just weaken slightly the Deep State. They may even have to change the acronyms of a few state organizations. Big deal. The rot is too deep. It cannot be expunged. 

FBI's 'Raw' Epstein Prison Video Was Likely Doctored: Wired

In an effort to quell longstanding theories surrounding the death of Jeffrey Epstein, the U.S. Department of Justice this week released nearly 11 hours of what it described as “full raw” surveillance footage from outside Epstein’s prison cell. Instead of ending speculation, the release has introduced new doubts.

According to an analysis conducted by WIRED in collaboration with independent video forensics experts, metadata embedded in the files shows the footage was not a direct export from the prison’s surveillance system. Rather, it appears to have been modified - likely using Adobe Premiere Pro, a professional video editing tool.

The file, investigators say, was assembled from at least two source clips, saved multiple times, exported, and then uploaded to the DOJ’s website, where it was labeled “raw” footage.

"If a lawyer brought me this file and asked if it was suitable for court, I’d say no. Go back to the source. Do it right," said Hany Farid, a professor at UC Berkeley whose research focuses on digital forensics and misinformation. "Do a direct export from the original system—no monkey business."

Farid also questioned why the video’s aspect ratio shifted during playback. "Why am I suddenly seeing a different aspect ratio?" he asked.

While experts emphasize that the metadata alone does not prove deceptive intent, they caution that the DOJ’s failure to explain the editing process adds to the cloud of suspicion that has long surrounded Epstein’s 2019 death in federal custody.

Earlier this week, the DOJ released a memo concluding that Epstein had 'no incriminating client list' and wasn't murdered later releasing the footage in question. 

According to Wired, "the video may have simply been processed for public release using available software, with no modifications beyond stitching together two clips. But the absence of a clear explanation for the processing of the file using professional editing software complicates the Justice Department’s narrative."

For months leading up to the joint memo the DOJ and FBI published Monday, attorney general Pam Bondi had promised the release of records related to Epstein, raising expectations that new, potentially incriminating details might surface about the disgraced financier’s death and his ties to powerful individuals. However, rather than revealing new information, the memo largely confirmed conclusions reached years earlier: that Epstein was found in a Manhattan prison cell on August 10, 2019, and died by suicide while awaiting trial on sex trafficking charges.

To support its conclusion, the FBI reviewed surveillance footage overlooking the common area of the Special Housing Unit (SHU) at the Metropolitan Correctional Center (MCC), where Epstein was held. The FBI enhanced the footage by adjusting contrast, color, and sharpness, and released both the enhanced and what it described as the “raw” version. Both versions of the video appear to have been processed using Premiere and include much of the same metadata. According to the FBI, anyone entering the area containing Epstein’s cell during the relevant time frame would have been visible on that camera. -Wired

According to the metadata from the "raw" file reveals that the video had been saved at least four times on May 23, 2025, by a Windows user named "MJCOLE~1." The footage references two source clips—“2025-05-22 21-12-48.mp4” and “2025-05-22 16-35-21.mp4” - and Premiere project files, indicating that it was a composite video.

One media forensics expert, who reviewed the metadata and asked not to be named, told Wired “It looks suspicious - but not as suspicious as the DOJ refusing to answer basic questions about it.”

The Department’s handling of the footage has also drawn criticism in light of previous issues at MCC. According to a 2023 report from the DOJ’s Office of the Inspector General, starting on July 29, 2019 - less than two weeks before Epstein’s death - around half of MCC’s 150 analog surveillance cameras stopped recording due to a technical error. Repairs scheduled for the night of August 9 were not carried out because the technician lacked an escort.

Only two cameras were operational in the SHU area at the time Epstein was found hanged: one near the entrance to the 10 South Unit and one by a ninth-floor elevator bay. Neither covered Epstein’s cell door.

What's more there was a notable gap in the recording: one minute of footage, from 11:58:58 p.m. to 12:00:00 a.m., is missing. The recording resumes immediately afterward.

At a press conference Tuesday, Attorney General Pam Bondi attributed the missing minute to a daily system cycle, claiming that one minute is missing from every night’s recording.

For months, Bondi had promised that the DOJ would release records that could shed light on Epstein’s death. But the new video and memo “largely confirmed conclusions reached years earlier,” WIRED noted, leaving many observers unsatisfied.

The Trump Circle (Joke)

   Should we let him dig or should someone pass the word?