At this scale we do not have 200 years but 30 years of reliable satellite data.
We do not know much yet about long term cycles although it seems likely that we are still rebounding from the little ice age towards temperatures equivalent to the Middle Ages optimum.
Worse, solar and cloud effects, by far the most important are not well taken into account in the models.
Finally, we are told that human forcing represents about 20% of the current warming, which if you read the small prints of the models is also the degree of uncertainty.
So the truth is that we do not know if there is currently any global warming or if it is natural variability. Much less if it is man made.
But as a scientists, to say so means no grants for your projects, so almost everyone find "something" at the limit of their models.
So here you have it: Man-made crisis certainly but is it warming? We don't know. So much so that nobody calls it Global Warming anymore, just climate change. An oxymoron which guaranty that you can't be wrong footed.
Here's a video of Tom Moser of NASA putting some flesh on the bones.
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