Amateurs Talk Strategy, Professionals Talk Logistics

 

  Haven't seen articles from Michael Every at Rabobank for quite some time.

  Here's one below. Plenty to worry about. (And that's from an investment banker, not from a nuts survivalist going off rails!) 

By Michael Every of Rabobank

I start today with a reference to yesterday's Seinfeld focused Global Daily: a reader reminded me of the most appropriate George Costanza quote for our present times, which I had missed: "It's not a lie if you believe it." There is a lot of that about.

Of course, shills aside, a strategist should try not to lie to themself about what's going on in order to best predict what may happen. And how does one best look at what's going on? As I stress, start with precepts (how does the world work?), then look at logistics (how is the world working?). After all, as a US general once said, "amateurs talk strategy, professionals talk logistics." What's true in war is true in peace, and more so as we dive deeper into an undeclared and, for markets, unrecognised economic war.

So let's look at some of the logistical dots that have just been plotted for us. (There a lot, so don't stop after just a few, or risk missing some of the best at the end!).

In the Middle East, the Red Sea crisis is getting worse: even if few are paying attention. Try to juice demand with large rate cuts into a supply squeeze and see what happens. The maritime aid flow from Cyprus to Gaza is now starting, but won't resolve distributional issues on the ground, and experts remain sceptical about the naval pier the United States has promised. President Biden just confirmed a $10bn sanctions waiver for Iran, who is backing the Houthis, weeks after making token military strikes on its regional forces (supposedly still ongoing) as payback for killing three US soldiers. In short, peace seems a long way off.

Russia reiterated it will use a nuclear weapon if threatened, even as Ukrainian drones destroy more Russian military factories deep into the latter's territory. Ukraine is also taking out Russian oil refineries: how many more of those before markets react? Yet the larger question is "where is Russia?" given various maps of it going round.

In Europe, the ECB launched an operational review which Bas van Geffen covers in detail here. There are lots of wonkish tweaks: one is the ECB will retain a strategic bond portfolio that includes SSA bonds issued by the European Investment Bank (EIB). At the same time, the EIB will soon consider investing in the EU defense sector.

As our SSA expert Matt Cairns notes, this comes post-Ukraine, pre-Trump, and mid German rejections of joint Eurobonds to fund arms spending. The use of the EIB may prove a path of ‘less resistance' given it already lends for dual use equipment like drones or helicopters. Agreement is likely to take time, and funding will only be raised gradually at first, but the EIB’s funding target is €60bn for 2024, with authorization of up to €65bn, allowing for upside flexibility. Going even higher would be a technical formality, although Matt considers this to be some way off politically. Yet the geopolitical backdrop is as urgent as Covid, which triggered past rapid action, given the long lag times to get defence goods flowing.

What one can also say is that such a development potentially looks like part of the radical European 'strategic autonomy' policy-shift framework we proposed back in December.

In the US, the BTFP bank support scheme has ended: and nothing bad has happened (yet). At the same time, the Fed overnight reverse repo balance has risen from $445bn back up to $522bn in two days. Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Yellen stated she does not expect US rates to decline back to their pre-COVID lows. Indeed, as Bloomberg puts it: “The three-month rate, for example, will average 5.1% this year, up from the 3.8% projected last March, White House officials said. The 10-year yield projection rose to 4.4% from 3.6%. The latter projection might have been even higher but for the intervention of Lael Brainard, director of the National Economic Council, according to people familiar with the matter prior to the release.”

If so, how are real term cuts in Pentagon spending going to be reversed ahead? Where or what is the US version of the EIB? Or are others globally going to have to do far more to stay safe in a world in which the US deliberately does far less, as it looks more to itself first?

That’s as the TikTok divestment bill passed the US House of Representatives with a huge bipartisan majority and has key backing in the Senate from some quarters, even if the body as a whole is more conservative (read: has different lobbyists) than the House; and if it passes there, President Biden has said he will sign it.

So, China is livid. So are those who worry what happens next to social media. This all seemingly swelled up 'from nothing', but didn't, and where this impetus might be directed next introduces further uncertainty into some markets.

In which, Trump is reported as floating various hedge fund billionaires as potential future Treasury Secretary should he win in 2024; but also former USTR Lighthizer, who is now an avowed Hamiltonian mercantilist. Ever heard of bait and switch? Or Hamilton? Or mercantilism?

There is more than enough acronymic-financial logistics action here than I can cover in detail today. But the underlying direction of travel seems to be fairly clear, unless you are an amateur, have something to sell, or are George Costanza.

The Climate Change Iceberg

  This is the best description you will ever find of the Climate Change Iceberg. 

  Don't worry, this one will never melt however hot it gets!

 

"THE COVID EXPERIMENT" - What really happenend at the social level!

   3 years later, people still do not understand what really happened at the social level during Covid. We, the people, were played like a fiddle and there was simply no force in the world able to resist "the players".

  In order to do something about "it", you first need to understand what really happened. But most people don't and therefore "we" as a society do not understand the game which was played. This discrepancy between what "the players" understand and what the people as a society understand gives a huge advantage to "the players". 

  Do you really believe "they" will squander this advantage and renounce to use it again?  

   But first here are some of the techniques:

The “covid experiment” was a masterclass in the use of authority to coerce, intimidate, and compel the ignorant masses into conforming to made up rules and regulations regarding lockdowns, masks, social distancing, the use of safe and effective medicines like ivermectin and hydroxychloroquine, and ultimately forcing an unsafe, untested, dangerous gene altering toxin to be injected into their bodies.

The totalitarian regime which inflicted this global horror show upon humanity has no hesitation in faking data in order to further their evil agenda, so their statistics showing 81% of Americans received at least one jab seem suspect. Overestimating the number who have submitted is a method for convincing more sheep to do so. I would estimate that closer to 60% of adults got the jab, under threat of sanctions, loss of job, and/or loss of privileges.

The Venn Diagram below is an accurate portrayal of the techniques used by the “authorities” in conducting this worldwide experiment in how far they could push people before they pushed back. From the perspective of our overlords, this experiment was a tremendous success, setting the stage for their next planned existential threat exercise to abscond with more of our wealth, while increasing their power and control over our lives. Continued submission to their demands will result in continued loss of our liberties, freedoms, and civil rights.

“The disappearance of a sense of responsibility is the most far-reaching consequence of submission to authority.” ― Stanley Milgram

“Control the manner in which a man interprets his world, and you have gone a long way toward controlling his behavior. That is why ideology, an attempt to interpret the condition of man, is always a prominent feature of revolutions, wars, and other circumstances in which individuals are called upon to perform extraordinary action.” ― Stanley Milgram, Obedience to Authority

The only thing missing from the Venn Diagram is an overlay of Edward Bernays’ Propaganda, providing the blueprint of how to utilize the regime media propaganda outlets to enforce whatever message was needed to support the particular authoritarian narrative of the day. Key aspects of all three experiments were utilized during the covid plandemic to achieve the desired outcomes of the ruling class, in using authoritarian measures to force the masses to do as they were told, or else. Fear and loathing toward our government has been the outcome of this covid experiment. I steadfastly stand on the loathing side. The brief descriptions below capture the gist of the experiments:

Milgram Authority Experiment

A series of social psychology experiments were conducted by Yale University psychologist Stanley Milgram, who intended to measure the willingness of study participants to obey an authority figure who instructed them to perform acts conflicting with their personal conscience. Participants were led to believe that they were assisting an unrelated experiment, in which they had to administer electric shocks to a “learner”. These sham or fake electric shocks gradually increased to levels that would have been fatal had they been real.

Stanford Prison Experiment

The Stanford Prison Experiment set out to examine the psychological effects of authority and powerlessness in a prison environment. The study, led by psychology professor Philip G. Zimbardo, recruited Stanford students using a local newspaper ad. Twenty-four students were carefully screened and randomly assigned into groups of prisoners and guards. The experiment, which was scheduled to last 1-2 weeks, ultimately had to be terminated on only the 6th day as the experiment escalated out of hand when the prisoners were forced to endure cruel and dehumanizing abuse at the hands of their peers. The experiment showed, in Dr. Zimbardo’s words, how “ordinary college students could do terrible things.”

Asch Conformity Experiment

The Asch conformity experiments were a series of psychological experiments conducted by Solomon Asch in the 1950s. The experiments revealed the degree to which a person’s own opinions are influenced by those of a group. Asch found that people were willing to ignore reality and give an incorrect answer in order to conform to the rest of the group.

Various adaptations of the Milgram Authority experiment were used during the “covid experiment” to further their aims. We’ve seen the videos of covid authoritarians inflicting pain upon average Americans, forcefully arresting them for swimming alone in the ocean, surfing, sitting in a public park, jogging, and having a catch in their yard with their kids. Inflicting pain upon those not following the “covid rules” was embraced by the Karens and Chads across the land. They wanted the non-conformists (aka critical thinkers) to be fired from their jobs, censored on social media, fined, imprisoned, and made into social pariahs. They wished death upon the un-vaxxed and did victory dances when an un-vaxxed person died. Milgram would have been proud of these petty tyrant psychopaths.

The Stanford Prison experiment showed ordinary people could become cruel fascistic sociopaths almost upon command, inflicting pain and torture upon those they have been told deserve to be treated inhumanely. Authoritarian governors like Cuomo, Murphy, Whitmer, Wolf, and Newsom murdered senior citizens by putting infected patients into the senior living centers. Doctors, hospital administrators, and nurses murdered patients by putting them on ventilators, administering Remdesivir, and denying patients ivermectin and hydroxychloroquine. Biden, Fauci, Trump, Walensky and the Big Pharma industrial complex have murdered and injured millions through the roll-out of their multi-billion dollar jab of death. The ongoing imprisonment of January 6 Capital tourists in the dungeons of DC without trial is cruel and inhuman punishment as a message for all critical thinkers exercising their First Amendment rights.

The Asch Conformity experiment was clearly borne out during the covid scamdemic. People conform to the will of the crowd, even though their brain tells them the crowd is wrong. They don’t want to be the disruptive black sheep in a flock of submissive white sheep. Virtually every person, when told to wear a mask, did so with no push back, even though scientific studies proved masks DO NOT WORK. The masses conformed because they believed Fauci (aka The Science), Biden, Trump, fake experts on their boob tubes, low IQ Hollywood shills, lower IQ athletes paid by Big Pharma, and the talking heads/bimbos spouting the covid propaganda narrative on the regime media outlets. Rather than do their own research, the intellectually lazy, igadget distracted, social media addicted, government school indoctrinated dumbasses decided to conform, obey, and believe everything they were told.

If you didn’t believe we were ruled by an invisible government (aka Deep State) of men who pull the strings of society and manipulate the minds of the masses to achieve whatever outcome benefits themselves, then the “covid experiment” should remove all doubt. The entire covid episode was planned beforehand (Event 201) with multiple objectives, all to the benefit of those conducting this experiment, with us as the disposable test subjects in their diabolical plot. The hubris of these tyrants has grown to epic proportions, as they see their “experiment” as an unmitigated triumph of authoritarian measures.

We know maybe 20% to 30% of the population resisted the measures imposed by the Deep State ruling class, therefore distinguishing themselves as the sole fly in the ointment of the “covid experiment”. There is no doubt they will be introducing their next “experiment” in totalitarianism within the next nine months, as the presidential election potentially derails their ongoing efforts to pillage and plunder the remaining wealth accumulated by the plebs. Will it be an engineered financial collapse, an invasion of Haitian cannibals, another lab created disease, activation of the millions of illegal invaders to create chaos, a coordinated takedown of the electrical grid/internet, assassinating Trump and initiating civil war, or finally crossing Putin’s red line in Ukraine and triggering global conflict?

Resistance during the “covid experiment” meant not going along with their narrative and directives. It was more of a passive resistance. It didn’t stop them from accomplishing their aims. They used the experiment to ramp Federal spending from $4.4 trillion to over $7 trillion, with most of the increase going directly into their Deep State pockets, while leaving the plebs with raging inflation, an enormous increase in their debt load, and a drastically reduced standard of living.

The EV Delusion Crumbles: Major Automakers Are Out!

  And sure enough although we're still in the take off stage, the EV souffle is already deflating. 

  Except for their low range, high insurance cost, low resale value and high repair cost EV are great cars.They of course cost too much but if all you need is a small second car to do some urban shopping on a Saturday afternoon, their are almost perfect.

  On thing we are starting to understand though is that in spite of all the hype they are not green. Far from it. Too bad, so many people were feeling so good doing their part saving the planet (while doing absolutely nothing but what they would have done otherwise!) Well, we'll have to think about something else, then...

Source: Insider Newsletter Issue 191

FLIP FLOP

It’s almost like there’s something wrong with the idea of EVs. I can’t put my finger on it. Maybe it’s the fact that when you trot down to your neighbourhood EV dealer, stopping for a soy latte and some tofu, you’re buying an expensive iPhone on wheels (and we all know what the resale value of a 5 or 10-year old iPhone is like).

You tell yourself you’re excited to be saving the planet as you power the bad boy up with some vegan electricity subsidised by the pronoun compliant guvmint, but now those subsidies are now being pulled (governments are bankrupt — surprise), and your vegan electricity is being imported from Indonesian coal mines and it’s costing a lot more than your old planet killing V8 supercharged testosterone-boosting muscle car and you’re pissed. Or maybe it’s the cost? Or maybe most people just don’t appreciate being forced to switch their car because the alphabet people say so?

It could be any of these things, but you know what? If you ask me, it’s quite simple. It is this very simple metric by which so much of human behaviour can be deduced. When it comes to buying isht, what folks want is a high quality item at a reasonable price and one that is more competitive than alternatives. The fact is that when it comes to their wallet nobody gives a pig’s arse about saving the planet. And THAT, my friends, is where the EV fraud stumbles, trips, and then jarringly smashes its face into a brick wall of reality.

And this brings us to our beer-drinking, bratwurst-eating friends — some of the best designers and manufacturers of cars ever. The Germans, specifically, Audi, who are doing a massive U-turn on electric vehicles. DROPPING their earlier goal of producing only electric vehicles by 2026. And they’re not the only ones.

Audi puts big EV push on the back burner

CEO Gernot Döllner told Bloomberg. “In the end, we decided to spread it out to not overwhelm the team and the dealerships.

Hahaha! That’s what he actually said to Bloomberg, but you know what he’d say to his mates down at the local beer hall? He’d tell them what an insider in the European automotive industry told us over a year ago — that there is bugger all demand for these stupid things and that many of the European auto manufacturers were going to land up being stuck with unwanted inventory… and some would probably “not make it through.”

Speaking of “others.” Mercedes Benz are also doing the same. They are bailing on EVs and instead are ramping up production of ICEs.

Mercedes-Benz delays electrification goal, beefs up combustion engine line-up

The company now expects sales of electrified vehicles, including hybrids, to account for up to 50% of the total by 2030 – five years later than its forecast from 2021, when it aimed to hit the 50% milestone by 2025 with mostly all-electric cars.

And perhaps most curious of the bunch: Apple. After 16 years of teasing entry into the EV market, Apple just bailed on their long-awaited electric car.

After 16 Years, Apple Abandons Work On Electric Car

One other thing worth mentioning is that Apple sits on a gobsmacking $162 billion in cash. And even with all that cash, they decided to pass on the “EV revolution.”

What to make of all this? As we like to say around here, everyone is a greenie until it hits their pocket. It seems to me that maybe, just maybe, Audi, Mercedes, and Apple have figured out that EVs are not the silver bullet they were promised to be.

And speaking of Apple, guess what they’re focusing on instead…

Many employees from the Special Projects Group (SPG), responsible for the car, will transition to the artificial intelligence division led by executive John Giannandrea. Their focus will shift to generative AI projects, aligning with the company’s evolving priorities.

Douglas Macgregor interview - What's wrong with the West (Video - 43mn)

  It is easy to become desperate in the West if you listen to the current light weight politicians. Some are truly imbeciles (A former UK prime minister comes to mind!), others like Macron, the president of France conspicuously put the interest of the Globalists ahead of those of the countries they are supposed to represent. 

 So obviously when you listen to the analysis of someone like Douglas Macgregor, it is easy to be stunned by the depth of knowledge and analysis. 

 But conversely, shouldn't it be the minimum to expect from a politician? Nowadays, you need a license to practice almost any job in the West from driving a car to cutting hairs. But to manage a country, one of the most complex endeavor you can tackle in the modern world: Nothing! In fact the stupider you are the better. Don't think, just read what the teleprompter is telling you to say, even poorly, that's OK, the Medias will correct and amplify the message!

 Here Douglas Macgregor is tackling competently complex issues. You can agree or disagree but at least you get the elements to give the problems a thought. A breath of fresh air in a bleak ideological landscape!   

 

You NEED TO Know What BlackRock Has Planned- Whitney Webb's Last WARNING (Video - 13mn)

   Among the very earliest articles on this blog were warnings about Social Credit and CBDC. Both technologies being extremely liberticide (extremely dangerous for freedom) and democracy. 

  Now 6 years later, democracy has become some kind of Kabuki, we still do the dancing but behind the curtain everything is more or less under tight control as we are starting to find out.

  Social Credit has been successfully introduced in China in 2020 with the immediate effect of crashing the economy. Why work or do anything at all in a system where everything is under tight control? (They call it laying flat.) Most people don't do the connection but about 30% of illegal immigration to the US at the Mexican border is Chinese? Can this really be a coincidence? (It cost a lot of money to be a Chinese illegal immigrant and the risks are huge. That's not for poor people. Why do it then? Think about it.)

  As for CBDC, it has been tried in a few countries like India and Nigeria with rather nasty consequences in both countries although in India the combination with other economic measures has for now resulted in a higher growth rate but at enormous social costs.

  The intention to introduce CBDC globally is there both in the BRICS and in advanced economies. The need is more and more urgent. Almost every large economy is teetering on the brink of insolvency. They MUST take control of your money. The only obstacle left is smothering a few technical issues... and acceptability. 

  But once this is done, you are little more than a slave from a financial perspective as every single transaction you do can and will be monitored, can and will be allowed or rejected. Your location, status, actions, relations... you name it, is known. Privacy is gone FOREVER! 

  We were until recently protected by the sheer number of people, transactions and data points. This is over. AI will solve the problem and monitor each of us at the individual level! Unbelievable but true.

 Most people worry about distant and mostly absurd risks like Global Warming. This one is real and much, much closer than they realize. We are in an emergency!

 

The Internet Goes EXTINCT as Gen AI Takes Over (Video - 24mn)

   Some very important issues about the Internet that we'll soon have to solve. Who is human? How can you prove it? Who can do what? Great food for thoughts although most ideas are unfortunately dystopian.

The 3 Year AI Reset: How To Get Ahead While Others Lose Their Jobs (Prepare Now) | Emad Mostaque (Video - 20mn)

  The video is in fact 2 hours but the first 20mn are the important ones.

  Amazing food for thought.

 

Look carefully, there won't be a second chance! (Video - 40mn)

  We are just in the process of seeing Artificial Intelligence catching up and surpassing Human Intelligence. 

  This is unbelievable and happening just now at a surprising speed.  

  Mankind, if it survives, will remember 2024 forever!

 

What will the Third World War look like?

  In 1940 France was preparing for a trench warfare and to prevent a replay of the first world war had built the Maginot Line, a long line of fortifications along the German border. The Blitzkrieg went through the Ardennes forest, just North of the line, a seemingly impassable obstacle for tanks and before the French had time to take a breath, the war was already lost.

  Likewise, in 2024, the US has a collection of tanks, planes and aircraft carriers which would certainly win a battle against the Japanese in 1941 if as in the movie of 1980, "Final Countdown" they were sent back in time to fight once again the Battle of Pearl Harbor. 

  But 2024 is definitely not 1941. The world has changed drastically since. The article below explores different aspects of the 3rd World War. The most interesting parts being the non military ones. 

  In reality, like it or not, we are already deep into WW3. The difference this time is that thanks to the unacceptable risks of a nuclear conflagration, we are obliged to fight in indirect ways as can be seen currently and because of the scale of the conflict and its indirect nature, it is likely to be a protracted fight. In-between, we'll be dancing on the edge of the precipice with the music getting louder and the markets rising to infinity.      

Guest Post by Nick Giambruno

Total war between the world’s largest powers that reshuffled the international order defined the previous world wars.

Total war between the largest powers today—Russia, China, and the US—means a nuclear Armageddon where there are no winners and only losers.

That could still happen despite nobody wanting it, but it’s not the most likely outcome.

World War 3 is unlikely to be a direct kinetic war between the US, Russia, and China.

Instead, the conflict will play out on different levels—proxy wars, economic wars, financial wars, cyber wars, biological wars, deniable sabotage, and information wars.

In that sense, World War 3 is already well underway, even though most don’t recognize it.

Below, I’ll look at the seven domains World War 3 is playing out on and analyze which side has an advantage.

Domain #1: Financial Warfare

Financial warfare refers to the use of financial methods as a strategy to achieve military or political objectives.

One common tool of financial warfare is the imposition of sanctions or embargoes. This can involve freezing assets, restricting trade, or limiting access to international financial systems. The goal is to damage the target’s economy, weakening its ability to pursue certain policies or actions.

Imposing controls on the movement of capital and investments can also serve as a weapon in financial warfare. This could involve restricting foreign investments in specific sectors or limiting the ability of foreign investors to withdraw their funds.

Take, for example, the US government’s actions after the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

The US government launched its most aggressive financial warfare campaign ever.

Exceeding even Iran and North Korea, Russia is now the most sanctioned nation in the world.

“This is financial nuclear war and the largest sanctions event in history,” a former Treasury Department official said.

He went on to say, “Russia went from being part of the global economy to the single largest target of global sanctions and a financial pariah in less than two weeks.”

Here’s a brief rundown of what has happened.

The US and European governments froze Russia’s US dollar and euro reserves—the accumulated savings of the nation—worth around $300 billion.

They kicked Russian banks out of SWIFT, the system for sending international wire transfers.

A stampede of Western companies left Russia and banned average Russian citizens from using their platforms.

Popular cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase blocked over 25,000 accounts linked to Russia.

Visa, MasterCard, and American Express have removed Russia from their networks.

These are just a few examples of how NATO & Friends cut Russia off from the US-dominated global financial system.

While BRICS+ countries are trying to build a parallel international financial system, it is not yet ready for prime time.

In financial warfare, NATO & Friends have a clear advantage today, though BRICS+ is eroding it.

Result: Advantage NATO & Friends

Domain #2: Economic Warfare

Countries can engage in economic warfare by controlling access to strategic commodities like oil, gas, rare earth elements (REEs), and major trade routes. A country can exert economic pressure on others by limiting access to these resources or influencing their prices.

BRICS+ dominates strategic commodities.

Take Russia, for example.

Politicians and the media in the US often ridicule Russia as nothing more than “a gas station with nuclear weapons,” an inaccurate cartoonish depiction.

Russia is the world’s largest exporter of natural gas, lumber, wheat, fertilizer, and palladium (a crucial car component).

It is the second-largest exporter of oil and aluminum and the third-largest exporter of nickel and coal.

Russia is a major producer and processor of uranium for nuclear power plants. Enriched uranium from Russia and its allies provides electricity to 20% of the homes in the US.

Aside from China, Russia produces more gold than any other country, accounting for more than 10% of global production.

These are just a handful of examples. There are many strategic commodities that Russia dominates.

In short, Russia is not just an oil and gas powerhouse but a commodity powerhouse.

Then there are REEs.

Many are unfamiliar with REEs, a collection of 17 obscure elements on the Periodic Table, despite their indispensable role in modern life.

In short, the US military and American consumers depend entirely on these obscure elements.

China controls around 60% of REE production and 95% of REE processing. Beijing also consumes about 67% of the worldwide REE supply.

Nobody can seriously challenge China’s REE monopoly, as it can maintain lower prices longer than any competitor can remain solvent.

Then there is Iran, which dominates the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most crucial energy corridor.

According to the US Energy Information Administration, each day, more than 40% of global oil exports (around 21 million barrels) transit the Strait.

Thanks to its commanding geography and expertise in unconventional and asymmetric warfare, Iran can shut down the Strait, and there’s not much anyone can do about it.

The idea is to level the playing field against a superior enemy with swarms of explosive-laden suicide speedboats, low-flying planes carrying anti-ship missiles, naval mines, and land-based anti-ship ballistic missiles, among other low-cost but highly effective measures.

Analysts believe it would take weeks for the US military to reopen it, but nobody knows if they would succeed.

Military strategists have known about this situation for decades. But no one has found a realistic way to neutralize Iran’s power over the Strait. It’s Iran’s geopolitical trump card.

In the Red Sea, Iran’s allies in the Houthi movement in Yemen have recently shut down shipping in this vital economic corridor to all Israeli, American, and British vessels.

When you put it all together, BRICS+ has the edge in economic warfare.

Result: Advantage BRICS +

Domain #3: Cyber Warfare

Cyber warfare refers to the use of digital attacks by one nation to disrupt the computer systems of another, often aiming to cause damage, disruption, or fear.

These attacks can target various sectors, including government networks, financial systems, and utility services like electricity and water supply. For example, a successful cyber attack on a power grid could leave millions without electricity or clean water.

Attacking a nation’s financial infrastructure, like banks or stock exchanges, through cyber means is another form of cyber warfare. Such attacks can disrupt economic stability, create uncertainty, and potentially lead to significant financial losses.

The goals of cyber warfare can vary from stealing sensitive information, causing economic damage, disrupting essential services, or creating chaos and panic among the population.

Cyber warfare can be just as damaging as traditional warfare but is often cheaper, less risky, and can be conducted anonymously and remotely. This makes it an attractive option for nations wanting to cause harm while minimizing the risk of direct confrontation.

I expect cyber warfare to be prominent as World War 3 evolves.

NATO & Friends and BRICS+ are skilled at cyber warfare. However, I don’t see either side having a decisive advantage.

Result: Uncertain

Domain #4: Information Warfare

Information warfare encompasses a range of tactics aimed at influencing, disrupting, or corrupting the information landscape to affect an adversary’s decision-making process, undermine trust in institutions, or sway public opinion. It aims to influence outcomes both on the battlefield and in public opinion.

This type of warfare leverages the spread of false and misleading narratives, propaganda, and psychological operations to create confusion, sow discord, and manipulate perceptions

Information warfare can influence elections, shape public opinion on critical issues, and even incite violence or social unrest. The objective is often to destabilize an opponent from within.

With the growing reliance on social media and other digital platforms, the role of information warfare is likely to become even more significant in shaping both military and geopolitical landscapes.

The US has enormous influence over the global mainstream media, entertainment industry, and Big Tech platforms. That gives it widespread worldwide reach in a way that Russia and China do not have.

As a result, NATO & Friends have the advantage in information warfare.

Result: Advantage NATO & Friends

Domain #5: Deniable Sabotage

Sabotage refers to deliberately damaging, destroying, or hindering vital property.

Deniable sabotage is a hostile action carried out so that the perpetrator cannot be conclusively identified or linked to the attack. The identity of the aggressor remains hidden, or there is plausible deniability.

It means that although there might be suspicions or even circumstantial evidence about who is responsible for an attack, there is no concrete proof. As a result, the alleged perpetrator can credibly deny involvement.

Typical targets for sabotage include infrastructure like bridges and railways, communication systems, supply depots, ammunition stores, and essential utilities like power and water supply systems.

The destruction of Russia’s Nord Stream 2 pipeline and the cutting of undersea fiber optic cables around Norway are likely examples of recent deniable sabotage.

NATO & Friends and BRICS+ are skilled at deniable sabotage. However, I don’t see either side having a decisive advantage.

Result: Uncertain

Domain #6: Biological Warfare

Biological warfare is the use of biological toxins or infectious agents such as bacteria, viruses, and fungi to incapacitate or kill humans, animals, or plants.

The disease-causing agents can be spread through air, water, or food sources and are often difficult to trace.

The use of biological weapons dates back centuries. In medieval times, besieging armies would catapult diseased corpses over city walls.

Today, the US, China, and Russia have all signed the Biological Weapons Convention, which is supposed to prohibit biological warfare. However, I don’t expect that will prevent biological warfare as World War 3 escalates.

The Covid hysteria could have been due to an act of biological warfare.

In any case, the US, Russia, and China all maintain robust and secretive biological weapons programs. However, I don’t see any side having a decisive advantage.

Result: Uncertain

Domain #7: Proxy Warfare

Proxy wars are a method by which major powers fight their battles indirectly, using smaller nations or groups as stand-ins rather than confronting each other directly.

Major powers support, equip, and finance smaller groups or nations in a proxy war to fight against a common adversary. This support can include military training, weapons, funding, and other resources. The critical point is that the major powers do not engage directly in combat.

I expect proxy wars will be a decisive factor in who will win World War 3.

There are numerous ongoing proxy wars. However, there are three that I believe will be key in determining which side has the overall advantage.

Proxy War #1: Ukraine

Ukraine has been the arena of choice for NATO & Friends to confront Russia.

As I write this, at the beginning of 2024, the conflict in Ukraine appears to be winding down.

Ukraine has suffered serious battlefield setbacks as its much-touted 2023 counteroffensive has utterly failed.

Further weapons shipments from NATO nations are not going to deliver victory to Ukraine. At best, it will only prolong the conflict without changing the ultimate outcome while depleting NATO inventories.

US funding is also drying up. American and European voters are growing increasingly tired of the war.

When you put it all together, I suspect we will see serious movement toward a settlement this year that will largely be favorable to Russia.

Result: Advantage BRICS +

Proxy War #2: The Middle East

The Middle East is on the precipice of the biggest regional war in over 50 years.

The region is roughly divided into two different geopolitical groups.

The first is the US and its allies—Israel, Turkey, Jordan, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, and others.

The second group describes itself as the Axis of Resistance. It consists of Iran, Syria, the Houthis in Yemen, Hezbollah in Lebanon, several Palestinian groups, including Hamas, and an assortment of militias in Iraq. Russia and China are standing behind the Axis of Resistance.

In the context of World War 3 and the global geopolitical situation, the US and its allies represent the interests of NATO & Friends, and the Axis of Resistance represents BRICS+.

If there is a regional war in the Middle East, it will undoubtedly be between these two groups.

Short of a regional war, there will likely be continued geopolitical competition and low-intensity conflict in the Middle East.

When you take a step back and put it all together, it seems clear that the geopolitical momentum is with the Axis of Resistance in the Middle East.

However, a large regional war could turn things around for the US, Israel, and its allies. NATO & Friends might try a full-scale war with Iran as a last-ditch attempt to scuttle the emergence of a multipolar world order.

It’s also more likely, though, that a full-scale war with Iran and the Axis of Resistance would end in disaster for the US and its allies. That’s probably a big reason it hasn’t happened yet, despite no shortage of hostile intentions.

In the meantime, the advantage in the Middle East goes to BRICS+.

Result: Advantage BRICS +

Proxy War #3: Taiwan

China views Taiwan as a breakaway province and has vowed to reunify it with the mainland by force if necessary.

Recently, Xi privately warned Biden that China will reunify Taiwan but that the timing has not yet been decided.

While not explicitly committing to Taiwan’s defense, the US has been a significant supplier of military equipment to Taiwan. A Chinese invasion could trigger a response from the US, though the extent and nature of this response are uncertain.

China has one of the world’s largest and increasingly modern militaries. Taiwan has a well-trained military, though smaller and less equipped than China’s.

It seems to me that time is on China’s side. All Beijing has to do is wait; eventually, it will be able to compel Taiwan to reunify peacefully.

In the case of a military conflict, it seems to me China has the advantage. The only way Taiwan would have a prayer is if the US directly joined the conflict. However, the US is unlikely to risk a full-scale war with China because of MAD.

When you put it all together, it seems China has the advantage.

Result: Advantage BRICS+

There will likely be other proxy wars as World War 3 progresses, but the ones I believe will prove decisive will be in Ukraine, the Middle East, and Taiwan. The other proxy wars are peripheral in comparison.

All three decisive proxy wars are trending toward a defeat for NATO & Friends. Therefore, the advantage in the overall proxy war domain—which I believe will be the most decisive domain in World War 3—is with BRICS+.

Result: Advantage BRICS+

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