Monday, July 11, 2022

Why Tensions Between China And Taiwan Are On The Rise (Video - 7')

 Contrary to most people who fear an escalation in Ukraine, I believe that Taiwan is a much more dangerous flashpoint at this stage. 

 The reason is that in spite of the rhetoric over Ukraine, few countries in Europe want a war or are ready for one. Likewise the ambitions of Russia are limited to Crimea and the Dombass which is why the numerous provocations of NATO have not been followed up on the battleground.

 Taiwan is different. Whereas Ukraine is insignificant and little more than a "proxy to fight Russia" from the US Government in their own words, Taiwan in an essential component of the global supply chain and as such far more important for the US. 

 Conversely, China is facing a major crisis with the bursting of its real estate bubble and the potential crash of its economy. These are often, historically, conditions under which countries go to war. 

 China is not ready for war nor is its military strong enough to fight effectively. But what if the war is not about Taiwan as everyone expect but about destroying the hegemony of the dollar? Can the Chinese economy sustain a long war of attrition? Probably not as quickly China would be starved of raw materials and resources. But can the West sustain such a war without completely crashing it's financial system?

 The risk is that the Chinese will not decide based on economic grounds but on the survival of their political system.


 

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