The war between Thailand and Cambodia - Day 5

   Normally, I try not to follow closely current events as my goal is to provide data and background in order to get a deeper understanding of why they are unfolding as they do. 

  But every rule has its exceptions. I happen to know the Eastern part of Thailand quite well and although conflicts have flared in the area regularly over the centuries, this is one of the last place where war should break up at the current time. So what exactly is going on? 

  There seems to be a trend right now in looking at the cause of the conflict by accusing the French authorities who in 1907 negotiated unequal treaties about the border with Thailand. This is to my opinion erroneous. 

  Thailand has a very long history and is the only country in South East Asia and one of the very few in the world which never was a colony. Conversely, this means that Thailand has been almost continuously at war with its neighbor; The Burmese in the West, The Mountain people in the North and of course the Cambodians in the East. 

  When negotiations took place in 1907, the French tried to "push" the limits of colonial Cambodia as far as possible, so as far as they could find Cambodians living in the countryside but since the populations were rather mixed in the area, the border ended up a few kilometers North of two major temples which at the time were under the administration of Thai monks. Finally the Monks were permitted to stay and the temples ended up being Thai on the wrong side of the border. 

  This has been the cause of endless conflicts ever since. At most times, tourists from Thailand were permitted to visit the temples by depositing their passports at the border, except of course when people were shooting at each other, usually on a very small scale, which was happening once every 10 years or so.

  Also, usually the conflicts were initiated by the Cambodians irritated by the Thais encroaching on "their" land. 

  This time is different, which is why the conflict seems more prone to inflating into war that in the past. Both governments in Thailand and Cambodia are under pressure and cannot "look" weak. And then of course there is the ominous conflict of influence between China and the US in the background which automatically gives a strategic dimension to every skirmish. (as explained below)

  The good thing is that because the location of the conflict is so remote, as long as the "war" is confined to the area, nothing much will happen. This is jungle warfare, not ideal for large scale confrontation. But since the border between the two countries extends to over 700 kilometers, it can easily spread to other areas which will have less reasons to be at war since the border is better defined but where war would conversely be much easier with better road access to the frontier.  

 The Thailand–Cambodia war isn’t just about temples. It’s a geopolitical fault line and the target may be China’s Pan-Asian Railway.

Since July 24, artillery has fallen, airstrikes have escalated, and over 30 are dead. More than 170,000 have fled their homes. Thailand blames Cambodian incursions. Cambodia says it’s resisting Thai aggression. Trump has inserted himself as mediator, using trade threats and leverage, but the real stakes may lie beneath the tracks.

China’s Belt and Road megaproject, the 6,000+ km Pan-Asian Railway, is set to transform Southeast Asia. High-speed lines are underway from Kunming to Laos, Cambodia, Thailand, Malaysia, and Singapore. The China–Laos line is operational. The China–Thailand line is under rapid construction, with the Bangkok–Nakhon leg on pace for 2026 and full connection to Nong Khai by 2030. Cambodia’s lines are next, linking Phnom Penh and Ho Chi Minh City to Bangkok, and ultimately to China.

But that junction, the Cambodia–Thailand border, is exactly where the war just broke out.

China’s vision is seamless connectivity: freight, tourism, multipolar trade. A physical alternative to maritime chokepoints and Western control. But every nation along this railway tells a deeper story. Cambodia is a Chinese ally. Thailand is a U.S. treaty partner with joint military drills and weapons contracts. Myanmar’s China rail is frozen in conflict. Vietnam’s China line was delayed by Japanese failures and is now quietly being restarted by Chinese firms.

Who benefits if the network stalls?

In this context, the outbreak of war looks less like spontaneous escalation and more like disruption, a possible proxy move in the broader U.S.–China contest. Analysts have called it a “new Cold War flashpoint” in Southeast Asia. Western powers cannot match China’s infrastructure scale, but they can sabotage it. Stir conflict. Delay links. Keep ASEAN fragmented and dependent.

China blames “the colonial legacy.” The U.S. calls for restraint while signaling support for Thailand. And the railway, once a corridor for peace, may now run through a battlefield.

Peace here isn’t just about borders, it’s about who builds Asia’s future.