Oil and the Houthis?

   The price of oil is skyrocketing and obviously the Houthis are responsible, or this is what it looks like at first sight.  

   Forget the fact that Ukraine has been bombing oil refineries in Russia for months because this is clearly against the will of President Trump who just a few days ago once again asked Ukraine "not to!"

   Forget the other fact that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has been on and off for months too as this was an unintended consequence of a war gone wrong. Not only that but since the war went sideways, the US military has kept bombing Iranian oil facilities and tankers insuring that the oil shortfall would indeed materialize eventually. 

   And then finally the Houthis. They did bomb refineries in Saudi Arabia, especially around Yambu, there is no doubt about it.

   But what about the Saudi pipeline crossing the country and avoiding Hormuz? When it was bombed, we were told this too was the Houthis although they didn't confirm and strangely the drones came from the direction of Iraq. Trump told us it was Iran which was immediately denied with the country actually sending a mystery plane to Saudia the day after. The Shia faction in Iraq likewise denied they launched the drones. 

   So who is left who has access to secret bases in Iraq and who would have an interest in throwing oil on the fire, although here practically it is rather fire on oil? Who is capable of launching a very precise strike on a very specific target? 

   If your answer is Israel, you may be heading in the right direction. 

   Let's look at it objectively from their point of view: Trump was manipulated into the Iran war believing it would be a quick win. He is now having second thoughts. Saudi Arabia refused the last ditch push to sign the Abraham accords and deserves to be punished. Finally, Trump needs to be convinced for his own political interest that the price of oil will not come down without a major push in the Middle East. Isn't all this worth a "small" missile crossing the fog of war to reach the right political target in the middle of the desert? Who would notice anyway? Apparently no one indeed!      

   The official version below is just Houthis:  

 ⚔️ Why the Houthis are almost impossible to stop — and why Saudi Arabia is running out of options

For a decade, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, the US, Britain, and Israel have pounded Yemen with airstrikes — and the Houthis have only grown stronger. Now, with the group holding Yemen's entire Red Sea coast and striking Saudi oil infrastructure, there is little left to try that hasn't already failed.

🔴 The terrain is the weapon: The Houthis operate across a large, mountainous territory where they disperse fighters and military infrastructure — while threatening major oil facilities and key trade routes just across the border. Air power can't hold ground. And the Houthis don't need to hold it — they just need to threaten it.

🔴 They make their own weapons: The Houthis now field ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, anti-ship missiles, naval drones, and UAVs — capable of reaching every Gulf state and Israel. Iran may support the movement with training. But the Houthis manufacture most of their weaponry domestically — and may be using AI to build better missiles.

🔴 The numbers are damning

🪖 30,000 fighters in 2015 — when Saudi Arabia intervened
📈 Up to 350,000 fighters by 2024 — a more than tenfold increase

A decade of bombing produced a larger, better-armed, more experienced enemy.

🔴 Air power alone doesn't win wars: Any lasting defeat would require ground troops. But the anti-Houthi ground forces are deeply divided — Saudi-backed government loyalists and UAE-backed southern separatists fought each other as recently as January. In recent weeks, they've fallen back from one position after another.

🔴 The interceptor problem: Saudi Arabia has US-supplied aircraft and advanced missile defenses — but its high-end interceptor stocks are under pressure. With Patriot reserves drained by the Iran war and the US unable to spare any, it's unclear how long Riyadh can keep warding off attacks from the Houthis and Iran-backed militias in Iraq — which already shut down a crucial east-west pipeline.

🔴 Diplomacy is a dead end: The Houthis demand Saudi Arabia lift its blockade — which would be an admission of defeat and pave the way for even more support from the Axis of Resistance.

The Houthis cannot be bombed into submission. They cannot be starved into surrender. They cannot be defeated by proxy forces that fight each other. And they cannot be negotiated with from a position of weakness.

The Saudi Arabia and the US are learning this the hard way.