Friday, June 6, 2025

Will This Be What Finally Kicks The $USD Off a Cliff?

   The fight between Donald Trump and Elon Musk as seen from the market: It could indeed go very bad since in the end nothing less than the USD is at stake.

   Donald Trump was elected to do "something" drastic about the economy. The BBB (Big Beautiful Bill) is definitively not that. More like business as usual on steroid. The bottom line is that there won't be four more years like this. Maybe not even one! That in market-speak is what the article below is about. The clock is ticking.

By Graham Summers, MBA | Chief Market Strategist

Who had a bitter Trump/ Elon divorce on their bingo cards for 2025?

In case you missed it, the relationship between the world’s wealthiest man, Elon Musk, and the world’s most powerful man, President Trump, has imploded in spectacular fashion. The match that lit the fuse was Musk’s criticism of the Big Beautiful Bill that the President is attempting to push through congress. However, things got ugly FAST.

In the last 24 hours, we’ve seen.

  1. Musk suggest that President Trump wouldn’t have won the election without Musk’s support.

  2. President Trump indicates that he intends to cut all Electric Vehicle mandates which would damage Musk’s company, Tesla (TSLA).

  3. Musk call the President a liar.

  4. President Trump threaten to cut all subsidies to Musk’s businesses.

  5. Musk suggest that America needs a new political party that actually represents the will of the people.

And some other unsavory things we won’t be repeating here.

What are the implications of this situation?

Musk controls the largest media empire in the world: X (formerly Twitter). He’s also a highly intelligent and oftentimes childish person who doesn’t back down from public spats and is more than happy to make things personal to a disturbing degree.

President Trump is the most powerful man in the world, with the ability to sign Executive Orders, sway political leaders, and weaponize the government against his opponents. The President is famous for being a bully, erratic, and also making things personal to a disturbing degree.

In very simple terms, this could get VERY messy. Musk could:

  1. Use his massive media reach to sway public opinion against the President.

  2. Reveal private information about the President that could badly damage the latter’s polls/ political support.

  3. Switch teams to the Democrats with the intention of swaying the mid-terms.

  4. More.

In contrast the President could:

  1. Collapse Musk’s businesses via policy changes (Tesla shares were down 15% yesterday at one point).

  2. Push to have Musk deported.

  3. Freeze Musk’s assets.

  4. Weaponize the Department of Justice and other governmental bodies against Musk and his businesses.

These are two incredibly powerful people both of whom have a LOT to lose in this situation. And while this is primarily a political situation, there are major implications for investors.

The bulk of GOP voters appear to side with Musk on the issue of the debt and the BBB. Moreover, the markets are signaling that the BBB is going to have MASSIVE consequences for investors.

Take note, the $USD is breaking down BADLY. It’s not only taken out critical support but it’s also failed to reclaim it (blue line in the chart below). And as I write this, the $USD is just sitting on its bull market trendline from the 2011 lows. If the greenback takes out that line, BUCKLE UP because it will have systemic implications for the financial system.

What implications?

Gold, silver, platinum and other inflation hedges are already showing us as they erupt higher. Silver has a massive 15 year Cup and Handle formation in place that suggests a parabolic move is coming.

With the right strategy there is a LOT of money to be made here.

To pick up one of the remaining copies…

CLICK HERE!

Graham Summers, MBA

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

"Can The Tyranny Be Soft-Landed?" by Jeffrey Tucker via The Brownstone Institute

  A superb article from the brownstone Institute which could be resumed to: Is the Trump Administration for real? 

  As I mentioned earlier, the spat between Elon Musk and Donald Trump, beyond the individuals involved is a real difference of approach. The difference between perception or a few billions saved here and there and reality, avoiding bankruptcy down the road. 

 But in the article below, Jeffrey Tucker goes much deeper asking why Donald Trump is not rolling back all the Covid laws and regulations, why transparency seems to be muddied up on the Kennedy and Epstein files, why pork still rules in Washington? The question is to know if Trump is compromising or compromised. A key question indeed!

Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via The Brownstone Institute,

The excuse that this regime is better than it was, or might otherwise have been, only lasts so long. 

Every transition government in history has deployed that trope. Think the Girondins in France, Kerensky in Russia, Weimar in Germany, the Second Spanish Republic, Chiang Kai-shek in China, and so on. In order, they were replaced by Robespierre then Napoleon, Lenin then Stalin, Hitler, Franco, and Mao. 

In each of these cases, the transitional government was caught between and ultimately smashed by pressures from both sides: industrial and intellectual partisans of the old regime with legacy control, on one side, and the radicalism of the populist movements that brought new people to power on the other. 

Threading this needle is not easy in revolutionary moments. Of such times, history teaches one lesson more than any other. The new regime must be brutally honest about the criminality of the old one and work with focus to dismantle it as fast as possible. Anything short of that leads to its own discrediting and eventual replacement. 

In every area of government today under the Trump administration, now entering its second phase, we witness these very historical forces at work. The grassroots movement that beat all odds to put the new people in power had high and even revolutionary expectations following the five most horrid years of our lives. 

Some of these hopes are being partially met in good ways but blocked and neglected in too many other ways that are unbearably conspicuous. This dynamic affects the budget disaster, the demand for transparency, and in the realm of public health. 

As a result, the wild optimism that greeted the inauguration of Trump has turned to something different, a mixture of incredulity from the grassroots combined with outrage and disgust from the legacy media and establishment that fought this revolution at every turn. 

This further raises the prospect about which we’ve repeatedly warned: the Trump administration could go down in history as a transitional regime like we’ve seen so many times in history, a four-year experiment in moderation bookended by different brands of totalitarianism on either side. 

This is a serious matter, not a parlor game. Nor is this a typical political battle. What happened over the last five years was for the ages. The world economy was smashed by nearly all states due to a lab leak for a product partially funded by the US government. The unannounced fallback plan, pushed in the name of science, was to universally distribute a new shot with a new gene-altering technology. 

The shot did not work. It was not effective. It was not safe. Nor were they properly vetted because they were imposed by military edict under the cover of emergency. Other therapeutics were disparaged and banned. The critics in all areas were censored and shut down. People who refused the injection were fired. Public health collapsed in the name of preserving it. 

Those harms have seen no justice. 

Meanwhile, to finance this calamity, debt-financed spending ballooned by $8-10 trillion, leaving the federal government’s budget $2 trillion higher than it otherwise would have been. The shots are still on the market despite undeniable and widely known harms. 

None of this is a secret, as it might have been in former times. Because of information technologies, people are well aware of every detail. The so-called “populist movement” has become a vast community of in-depth expertise, fully capable of running circles around legacy people and institutions. 

The new leaders – elected to change course on all the above and more, including the accompanying crime and migration chaos – began with tremendous bravado and sweeping edicts that seemed promising. Four months later, they are asking for patience while dealing with legacy barriers on all sides from media harassment to court blockages. 

The trouble is that public trust is completely gone.

The whole country, traumatized by years of lies, has become Missouri: show me. 

  • First, no one believes that the “one big beautiful bill” is just a first step on the way to future draconian cuts. We’ve seen this too many times, which is why Elon Musk finally broke his silence and denounced the entire “massive, outrageous, pork-filled Congressional spending bill” as “a disgusting abomination.” That has set off a power struggle for the ages. 

  • Second, in areas of government transparency, there have been some steps but not nearly enough to fulfill the promises. There are still no new Epstein files. The JFK files are a mess and incomplete. We know no more than already public information about the two shooters who tried to kill Trump. There are still many lingering questions about 9-11, the Covid disaster, and so much else. This is not the opening for which the people had hoped. 

  • Third, let’s talk more at length about the public health area of policy where we’ve seen the most progress. We have a new and excellent Executive Order on science. Tax-funded Covid testing has ended. A contract of $750M for a Bird flu shot has been cancelled. There are new limits on gain-of-function research, and experiments on beagles and other animals are over. Many terrible contracts from NIH have been cancelled while parts of the CDC have been dismantled. 

As for the mRNA shots, the market has been narrowed from everyone to only vulnerable populations, leaving aside the known issue that vulnerable populations should not risk them either. 

There are new standards for randomized controlled trials with placebos, but no assurance that these companies will do them in a timely way. RCTs for a five-year-old product with massive immune-altering effects can never cobble together a valid sample selection at this late date, nor is a continuation of this experiment in any form morally justified. 

In two tremendous victories, the shots have been removed from the routine childhood schedule, the first time this has ever happened to any product targeting a specific disease apart from eradication or replacement. In effect, the CDC/FDA are saying: it is better to get Covid than risk these products. Such a message will drive uptake to new lows approaching zero eventually. 

In addition, the outrageous advice from the CDC that expectant women should take them is gone, finally. The champion of that policy has fled the CDC. 

These are all welcome changes in policies that never should have existed in the first place. Even now, however, no one says the quiet part out loud: even if these shots had been safe and effective, which they are not, they were never necessary for the overwhelming number of people. Which raises the profound question of how and why all this came to be in the first place. 

There are other initiatives too concerning food nutrition, mental health, and other matters in the MAHA Commission report that are hugely welcome changes from what has existed before. 

The people in power in these agencies are pleading for patience. That is not unreasonable. Remember that these few appointees are confronting a beast larger, more entrenched, and better financed than any hegemon in human history. The pharma/media/tech/NGO/academia complex is larger and more powerful than the slave trade, the East India Company, Standard Oil, or even the munitions industry that started the Great War. 

It’s certain that such a Leviathan cannot be ended in three months, not even with the best people in charge. All the grassroots really need to see is evidence of progress plus a transparent reason for delays. If the shots cannot be pulled now, people need to know why. If Covid emergency powers cannot be ended, explain why. If the new Moderna shot was already in the works and could not be stopped, people need to know the reasons. 

Everyone who has watched all this unfold is of two minds, never mind the endlessly mutating factions within the dissident movements that have seen their leadership ascend to power. The people in the MAGA/MAHA/DOGE movements are as thrilled by the progress so far to the same extent that mainstream media and the legacy establishment are furious about all the changes. 

For my own part, having watched public affairs for decades, this is the first time I’ve witnessed some progress in at least one area of state operations. That is worthy of celebration. I don’t even need to dwell on the many ways in which improvement over the darkest times of our lives is perhaps not as great an achievement as it would be otherwise. 

That said, the release of yet another shot, implausibly called NexSpike, especially in light of all evidence and promises, is a tremendous shock for which no one was prepared. If they were in the works and the appointees could not stop them, we should be told that and the full explanation should be given to all. If President Trump himself is still attached to the foul spawn of Operation Warp Speed, and has forced them back onto the market despite vast public opposition, we should know that too. 

Above all else, what we really need is the blunt truth about the last five years. We need to know that the people in office, whether elected or appointed, still share the deep outrage that fueled the movement that put them in power. We need to hear frank talk about the harms, the mandates, the suffering, the deceptions, the payoffs, the graft, the abuses, the illegal vanquishing of freedom, science, and human rights. 

It is not enough to proclaim a new Golden Age and be done with it. This pertains to every aspect of public life. Press conferences by the new officeholders, with smiles and promises of better behavior in the future, don’t cut it given the mass loss of trust, rampant cynicism, and grassroots fury. There must be more straight talk, more decisive action that goes to the heart of what happened, and some degree of accountability. 

We hear daily rumors that all of this is coming. Great. In which case, the new leaders need to make that clear. The masses are not inherently unreasonable. But they are the people within whom the leadership must reason – not “message,” not presented with flim-flam, not entertained with digital Punch and Judy shows, and not sniffily dismissed as ignorant extremists and conspiracy theorists. 

Every new leadership in government that inherits that kind of disaster of the last five years is necessarily going to be squeezed between the legacy regime – including its vast bureaucracies and industrial interests – and the populist movements that put them in power. In these cases, the status quo usually proves irresistible but with disastrous consequences later. 

Now is the time to stop that unfolding disaster, one which can only compound the errors of the past.

The Agenda: Their Vision, Your Future (Video - 1h52mn)

   Thought CBDC, 15mn cities, 0-trust, permanent monitoring were just new technologies on the back burner? Well, think again. The World Economic Forum failed to introduce them "officially" since there was too much resistance from the people, and so they've gone underground, introducing stealthily elements of the global plan one by one, hoping that mostly, people will fail to see the big picture and realize the danger of the virtual prison being created as we speak. 

  The result? A world where access will be granted or denied on-demand. Where you go, what you do, what you buy, who you connect with, all monitored and needing approval. The system already exists in China and is being improved year after year. In the West, we will just need to apply what works.

 It is a long video but well worth watching. Please follow the link below to YouTube:

The Agenda: Their Vision, Your Future

 

Thursday, June 5, 2025

The on-going "war" between Trump and Musk is far more interesting than it seems!

    Most people will look at the on-going war of words between Donald Trump and Elon Musk and will "enjoy" the clash of outsized personalities, and there is certainly some of that here. But as in the Matrix Movie, there is a deeper layer and far more interesting clash of policies behind which we should pay more attention to.

   Thanks to the recent posts, we now know that Elon Musk WAS fired for requesting changes in government policies that went far beyond what he was appointed to do. But who could blame him? He saw the financial mess the country was in and his task was indeed to fix the loose ends and so he did, understanding quickly that the problem was systemic, not about saving a billion dollars here and there. And so he made sensible proposals... which were all shot down on political grounds. But how over-optimistic was that? Did he really think that the system would accept to reform itself over the dead bodies of the people who benefited most and had to vote for the reforms? This was of course never going to happen! 

  But in doing so, Elon Musk did expose the inner working of the American political system and to say that it stinks to high heaven would be an understatement. Trump is most certainly a sworn enemy of the deep state, but it doesn't make him clean, far from it. Like most American politicians, Donald Trump is bought by the Israel lobby and compromised by the Epstein-Mossad entrapment mechanism, if we dare to call this for what it really is. (Epstein being probably just a minor part of the whole system.)

  This understanding most certainly goes a long way in explaining the extremist positions of the current US administration on Israel, the war in Gaza, Iran, Syria and basically the whole Middle east American policy. Although, Trump does try here and there to push back from the brink of the eschatological "armageddon" vision of the Zionists, mostly he has no choice and must compromise on the most fundamental principles which to say the least are not exactly in line with America first. And what exactly is the role of Peter Thiel in all this?

  Bottom line, beyond the short term entertainment, we are seeing a glimpse of the inner working of the machinery. It is as expected dirty and greasy. But it is also, as expected out of control. No Trump MAGA was ever going to put it back on tracks, but what fools would have ever thought so?  

  And this is unfortunately the recurring theme of this blog. The Greeks were right all along: Our lives are either a comedy of a tragedy (that decision remains up to us) but at the level of our societies, the dynamics are more or less fixed and our fate is indeed out of our hands which we have known for 2500 years. Only recently did we believe for a short while that technology would change the outcome of this basic human reality.

Musk 'Yes' On Trump Impeachment; Will 'Immediately' Decommission SpaceX Dragon & Doubles Down On Epstein Claims

Update (1725ET): As the Trump-Musk feud continues to escalate, Musk endorsed the notion that 'Trump should be impeached and JD Vance should replace him,' floated by Malaysian US political commentator Ian Miles Cheong.

Earlier...

Aaaand Musk just announced he'll begin decommissioning the SpaceX Dragon spacecraft 'immediately'

He also doubled down on the Epstein claim...

While Trump defenders such as Laura Loomer pushed back:

Trump, meanwhile, posted what could be considered somewhat of an attempt to de-escalate - that he 'doesn't mind Elon turning against me, but he should have done so months ago," adding "This is one of the Greatest Bills ever presented to Congress. It's a Record Cut in Expenses, $1.6 Trillion Dollars, and the Biggest Tax Cut ever given."

Update (1615ET): Just as the spat between Elon Musk and President Trump seemed to have reached cruising altitude, Musk hit the afterburners - claiming on X that President Trump is "in the Epstein files," adding "That is the real reason they have not been made public...

Meanwhile, shares in TSLA are down 16% as the market cascades lower. Fun fact, Tesla was the most bought retail stock over the last week. 

*  *  *

Update (1255ET): The tech-bro industrial complex has to be shitting themselves as the Trump-Musk spat just hit a new gear; Elon Musk is calling for a new political party, while Trump just threatened to pull Musk's contracts. 

Kevin Dietsch/Saul Loeb/AFP/GETTY

In a Thursday afternoon post to Truth Social, Trump said that Elon was "wearing thin," and that he "Asked him to leave." 

"I took away his EV Mandate that forced everyone to buy Electric Cars that nobody else wanted (that he knew for months I was going to do!), and he just went CRAZY!"

Trump then 'truthed' that "The easiest way to save money in our Budget, Billions and Billions of Dollars, is to terminate Elon’s Governmental Subsidies and Contracts. I was always surprised that Biden didn’t do it!"

"Such an obvious lie. So sad." Musk replied...

Before calling Trump's bluff...

And is calling for a new political party...

Which has an 84% 'yes' rating...

*  *  *

Update (1255ET): Well that escalated quickly...

Elon Musk is now raging on X against President Trump, after Trump talked greasy to the press over Musk's opposition to the "Big Beautiful Bill" over the past several days. 

"Without me, Trump would have lost the election, Dems would control the House and the Republicans would be 51-49 in the Senate," Musk wrote, adding "Such ingratitude." 

Meanwhile Tesla stock is down 9%...

And Palantir is down 5% as the tech bro darlings come under pressure... 

*  *  *

President Trump has weighed in after Elon Musk began publicly bashing the GOP's 'Big Beautiful Bill,' telling reporters on Thursday that he's 'very disappointed in Elon,' and that Musk only opposes the bill because they eliminated electric vehicle tax credits from it. 

"Elon is upset because we took the EV mandate which was a lot of money for electric vehicles. They're having a hard time the electric vehicles, and they want us to pay billions of dollars in subsidy. Elon knew this from the beginning," said Trump. 

Trump also suggested that Musk "recommended somebody he knew very well to run NASA. I didn't think it was appropriate, and he happened to be a Democrat, like totally Democrat."

Musk, meanwhile responded with "Whatever" to Trump...

"Keep the EV/solar incentive cuts in the bill, even though no oil & gas subsidies are touched (very unfair!!), but ditch the MOUNTAIN of DISGUSTING PORK in the bill," Musk wrote. "In the entire history of civilization, there has never been legislation that both big and beautiful. Everyone knows this!"

"Either you get a big and ugly bill or a slim and beautiful bill. Slim and beautiful is the way." 

And then there's this...

He then addressed Trump's specific comments regarding the bill, posting "False, this bill was never shown to me even once and was passed in the dead of night so fast that almost no one in Congress could even read it!"

Prior to Trump's comments, Musk spent much of the morning re-posting old Trump tweets calling for no ficits and to stop raising the debt ceiling. 

Over the past several days Musk has dug in over the issue - posting to X on Tuesday, "I’m sorry, but I just can’t stand it anymore. This massive, outrageous, pork-filled Congressional spending bill is a disgusting abomination."

This sent the White House scrambling to do damage control - with Budget Director Russ Vought sending Congress a request for a $9.4 billion clawback for unspent foreign aid funding - which if you're Musk, after what DOGE has uncovered, is a huge slap in the face.

On Wednesday, Musk continued to rage on X - posting: "Call your Senator, Call your Congressman, Bankrupting America is NOT ok! Kill the Bill." - followed by a 'Kill Bill' movie poster featuring Uma Thurman. 

Musk's solution? A new spending bill that doesn't jack the debt ceiling by $5 trillion dollars while "massively" growing the deficit. 

House Speaker Mike Johnson also spoke out against Musk, saying "I think Elon is flat wrong." 

Wednesday, June 4, 2025

US Embassy Tells Americans Be Prepared To 'Take Cover' As Kiev Braces For 'Shock & Awe' Attack

   Maybe this post should be called: "The complexity of life!"

  Trump is in a quandary: "The nuclear agreement between the US and Russia stipulates that nuclear bombers should be "visible" at all times. On the other hand, a desperate government in Kiev, supported by the Europeans will do anything to stay relevant and the sitting duck strategic bombers were an easy low hanging fruit for this purpose. 

  Is this terrorism? Not really, these bombers are by definition military targets. But by doing this, Europe (and indirectly the people in the US who did know in advance about the attack) are showing their hand: The goal of the war in Ukraine is clearly to weaken Russia in the long run, not really to win a war who anyone with half a brain knows is not winnable. 

  So now, Russia and Putin must respond and Trump can do very little but acknowledge this fact. This is the definition of a quandary where neither he nor Putin can change the direction of the conflict. In other words, things are slowly getting out of their hands with an internal dynamic against which no one can do much. 

  This is probably where the strategies which got us to this point should be examined more closely. What Russia is doing is understandable militarily. They are the stronger party and they are therefore slowly squeezing the Ukrainians out of their will and ability to fight with limited costs to the Russian society. This is what "Special Military Operation" means practically. 

  The Ukrainians are stuck between a rock and a hard place. On the one hand the Russians advancing relentlessly. On the other hand, the Europeans (NATO technically although with Trump is it now mostly Europe) who will cross any red lines (although a red line has very little meaning when you are already in a state of war) to weaken Russia knowing that they have already invested so much money in the operation that pulling out is now impossible. 

  What gives? I don't know and I don't think anybody does. The real war is between Europe and Russia with Ukraine stuck in-between. Both Russia and Europe, at this stage, can afford to up the ante on the other party. The main question left being how long can Ukraine survive before it is completely squeezed and both Russia and Europe end up confronting each other directly? 

  I am not a military analyst but it looks like after 3 years of relentless war, the Ukrainian army is getting destroyed on the front-line. If they cannot negotiate, albeit from a very weak position, then the war will have to end militarily. So my best guess is that as before, the answer of the Russian to the latest "provocation" will be mostly symbolic although maybe painful. The real answer will be an increase of the pressure on the front until Ukraine is finally defeated. This could happen as early as this Summer. But then what? A direct confrontation between East and West? And we're back to the beginning; Neither Putin nor Trump want such a confrontation, but will they have a choice? We are indeed playing with fire.

US Embassy Tells Americans Be Prepared To 'Take Cover' As Kiev Braces For 'Shock & Awe' Attack

 

The US Embassy in Kyiv has issued a new Wednesday heightened security alert due to "continued risk of significant air attacks" by Russia on Ukraine.

The Kremlin, including President Vladimir Putin himself, has said that major retaliation is coming, after the Sunday massive cross-border Ukrainian operation which destroyed many of Russia's premier military aircraft, including long-range strategic bombers.

President Trump has said of an over one-hour phone call he held with Putin Wednesday, that "We discussed the attack on Russia’s docked airplanes, by Ukraine, and also various other attacks that have been taking place by both sides." Trump went on to call it a good conversation, however "not a conversation that will lead to immediate Peace."

The below official embassy alert, marked June 4, relays the following information for American citizens remaining in the Ukrainian capital [emphasis ZH]:

Event:  Russia has increased the intensity of its missile and drone attacks against Ukraine in recent weeks, and there is currently a continued risk of significant air attacks. The U.S. Embassy in Kyiv urges U.S. citizens to exercise appropriate caution.  As always, we recommend you be prepared to shelter immediately in the event an air alert is announced

Actions to Take: 

  • Identify shelter locations in advance of any air alert.
  • Download a reliable air alert app to your mobile phone, such as Air Raid Siren or Alarm Map.
  • Immediately take shelter away from windows in the most hardened location you can move to if an air alert is announced.
  • Monitor local media for updates.
  • Keep reserves of water, food, and medication.
  • Follow the directions of Ukrainian officials and first responders in the event of an emergency.
  • Review what the Department of State Can and Cannot Do in a Crisis

Of note in Trump's phone call with Putin is that nothing was stated from Trump in the way of a US demand that Putin not retaliate against Ukraine (or at least which was not disclosed in his Truth Social post).

The absence of a preemptive condemnation for any major retaliation suggests that major aerial retaliation is indeed imminent, and that Washington 'understands' the tit-for-tat nature of what is likely about to happen.

Geopolitical observer and podcaster Alex Christoforou has written the following in reaction to the big Wednesday phone call, after the White House has remained relatively silent on the latest developments, which included a Ukrainian attack on the Kerch Strait bridge as well as three bridges in southern Russia, which left at least seven dead:

Trump speaks with Putin. Another long call. Who initiated the call, Trump or Putin?

Much different tone than "playing with fire" Truth post. Two leaders discussed Ukraine drone strikes and "various other attacks...by both sides." Trump accepted that Putin will retaliate, and it will be big. Trump admits "immediate peace" not coming.

Maxar has meanwhile confirmed that several high value strategic bombers were destroyed in Sunday's Ukrainian attack deep inside Russian territory:

But Russia has appeared patient in calculating the response, which could mean 'shock and awe' on Kiev at any moment, hence the US Embassy's strong new warning.

Medvedev had also warned of what's coming in a Tuesday statement"Our Army is pushing forward and will continue to advance. Everything that needs to be blown up will be blown up, and those who must be eliminated will be."

Some ominous threats and signs...

And we don't know what's going with this unusual post from RT, but it can't be good... Doomsday Radio?

Trump Says China's Xi Is "Very Tough And Hard To Make Deal With"

  China may be the main target of the US tariffs but look at the long, long list of tariffs below and imagine the drag on trade this will represent over the next few months. If the world is not in a recession yet, it will be in 6 months. 

  But beyond these discussions, the trade war is ongoing. Restrictions of AI chips for China which is retaliating with restrictions of rare earths exports to the US. These are not skirmishes, these are the early shots of a real war.

   Trump can negotiate all he wants with Xi Jinping, these deep "disagreements", although let's call them what they are: A true confrontation of hegemony, are here to stay and metastasize.

Trump Says China's Xi Is "Very Tough And Hard To Make Deal With"

President Donald Trump said in an early morning Truth Social post that Chinese leader Xi Jinping was "extremely hard" to make a deal with, just days after the president accused Beijing of violating an agreement to roll back tariffs and trade restrictions. This comes after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that U.S.-China trade talks were "a bit stalled." However, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said Tuesday that leader-to-leader talk between Trump and Xi "will happen very soon."

"I like President XI of China, always have, and always will, but he is VERY TOUGH, AND EXTREMELY HARD TO MAKE A DEAL WITH!!!," Trump wrote on Truth Social at around 0217 ET. 

Washington and Beijing have been bickering over whether either side has violated the May 12 trade agreement, reached in Switzerland, to de-escalate the trade war for 90 days. U.S. trade officials are likely concerned about China choking off the supply of key critical minerals, including rare earth magnets, while Chinese officials are worried about the U.S. restrictions on jet engine parts

On Tuesday, Leavitt told reporters that U.S. officials were monitoring China's compliance with the agreement and that leader-to-leader talks would happen very soon: "There will be a leader-to-leader talk very soon."

Trump signaled last week that he would speak with Xi in the near term: "I'm sure that I'll speak to President Xi, and hopefully we'll work that out." He told reporters that China had violated part of the trade agreement reached in Geneva, which aimed to reduce tensions. 

China has yet to confirm leader-to-leader talks, but Trump and the White House have repeatedly insisted those talks are nearing and "likely" at the end of this week

In markets, U.S. equity futures are flat early Wednesday, and Treasury yields are little changed, even as the U.S. doubled tariffs on steel and aluminum to 50%. 

In a post on X late Tuesday, U.S. Ambassador David Perdue emphasized to Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi that the U.S.'s top priorities are trade, fentanyl, and illegal immigration.

Trade war headlines change daily and can be hard to track. That's why UBS analyst Leo He compiled a comprehensive list of the latest developments, sourcing from Bloomberg, Reuters, The Hill, and Business Insider:

New Developments Summary:

  • The U.S. administration wants countries to provide their best offer on trade negotiations by June 4.

  • CNBC reports U.S. President Trump and China President Xi are likely to speak this week. U.S. extended the exclusion of Section 301 tariffs on some Chinese goods until August 31.

  • The U.S. will increase global tariffs on steel and aluminum to 50% from 25%, effective June 4.

  • Regarding the Court of International Trade's ruling on reciprocal tariffs, the Appeals court gave deadlines of June 5 for the plaintiffs to respond and June 9 for the U.S. administration to reply.

Trade Negotiations:

Overall:

  • Reuters reports The U.S. administration wants countries to provide their best offer on trade negotiations by June 4 as officials seek to accelerate talks.

  • U.S. President Trump said he will set tariffs rates for U.S. trading partners over next few weeks due to a lack of capacity to negotiate deals with all.

  • The U.S. administration has laid out a framework to negotiate with 18 countries six every week, over three weeks, in a rotation until the reciprocal tariffs pausing deadline (July 8).

  • Finance ministers and central bank governors from the G7 nations pledged to address "excessive imbalances" in the global economy aiming to create a level playing field and increase transparency.

China:

  • CNBC reports U.S. President Trump and China President Xi are likely to speak this week, citing a senior White House official. Previously, U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent said trade talks with China are moving slowly and talks between top leaders are needed to facilitate the negotiations.

  • U.S. and China accused each other of violating the recent trade deal. The U.S. accused China of restricting rare-earth exports while China accused the U.S. of technological controls.

  • U.S. extended the exclusion of Section 301 tariffs on some Chinese goods until August 31.

  • On May 15, U.S. Trade Representative Greer spoke to Chinese Vice Commerce Minister Li during the APEC meeting .

  • U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent met China Vice Premier He during May 10-11 and reached a de-escalation agreement. The U.S. lowered tariffs on China imports to 30% including 10% universal tariffs and 20% Fentanyl tariffs. Other universal tariffs including 25% on steel and aluminum and 25% on autos and auto parts have remained in place. Meanwhile, 24% reciprocal tariffs will be suspended for 90 days to allow for further negotiations with a deadline on August 12. 

  • The U.S.'s weighted average tariff on China imports is lowered to 43.5% from 96%, considering Trump's first term tariffs on China.

  • Next meeting between Bessent and He will be in next few weeks.

Vietnam:

  • The U.S. has sent Vietnam a list of requests as part of tariff negotiations that could force the Southeast Asian country to reduce the use of Chinese materials and components in its factories.

  • Vietnam is expected to sign deals with the United States to buy more than $2 billion worth of agricultural products. Previously, Vietnam trade minister Nguyen Hong Dien urged companies to buy more U.S. energy, mining, telecommunications and aviation.

  • Vietnam PM Chinh asked officials to speed up negotiations, aiming to sign a purchase deal of methanol worth $6bn from the U.S. in May.

Japan:

  • On June 2, Japan trade Negotiator Akazawa said Japan's stance of removing all tariffs hasn't changed. Akazawa will head to the U.S. on June 5 for the 5th round of negotiations, aiming for a trade deal during the G7 meeting during June 13-15.  

  • On May 29, Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba held a 25-minute phone call with Trump, and expressed the view that investing in the U.S. is more important than tariffs.

  • The U.S. agrees to Nippon Steel's acquisition plan on the United States Steel Corp, conditional on receiving a "golden share" of the company.

  • After meeting with U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent, Japan Finance Minister Kato said they agreed FX should be determined by market and specific FX levels were not discussed. Previously, Japan Finance Minister Kato said Plaza Accord 2.0 hasn't come up for discussion.

  • On May 9, Japan Finance Minister Kato said Japan is not considering to the U.S. Treasuries holding for negotiation. Previously, Kato said Japan's U.S. Treasury Holdings is a card in trade negotiations and whether Japan will use that card is a different decision. Japan Democratic Party for the People leader Tamaki said buying super-long UST in return for concessions on tariffs should be a possible bargaining chip. The party is a small but influential opposition party.

  • Previously, Japan PM Ishiba said Japan will not accept a trade agreement with the U.S. that excludes an accord on autos. Previously, Nikkei reported the U.S. proposed a framework under which Washington would maintain its 25% tariffs on Japan's auto industry, as well as steel and aluminum. Japan pushed back, saying the negotiations should be comprehensive, the paper said. Tokyo suggested reviewing its non-tariff barriers and expanding imports of U.S. farm products. On May 5, Kyodo reported the U.S. has rejected Japan's full exemption from not only the 10% "reciprocal" tariff but also its country-specific tariff in recent negotiations

  • Japan government is discussing the possibility of leveraging shipbuilding in tariff negotiations (source)               

  • Media reports Japan plans to increase imports of U.S. rice and soybeans as a potential bargaining chip in the trade negotiation. Also, Japan is considering into reviewing its car safety standards (read more).

EU:

  • On June 2, the EU has sent a technical team to Washington for trade negotiations. Also EU Trade Commissioner Sefcovic will meet U.S. Trade Representative Greer on June 4.

  • EU Trade Commissioner Sefcovic said he has calls with Commerce Secretary Lutnick every other day, and they have discussed aviation and semiconductor cooperations.

  • The U.S. and EU have agreed to accelerate trade talks after President Trump's threat to impose 50% tariffs on the EU.

  • Previously, U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent said the EU is very difficult to deal with and the EU proposals have not been of the same quality that from other trading partners. U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent said the EU suffers from a "collective action problem" that's hampering trade negotiations. Also, he said the EU needs to resolve "internal matters" before entering trade negotiations with the U.S., specifically citing a digital service tax imposed by some EU countries.

  • Previously, the EU shared a revised paper with the U.S. that includes proposals on international labor rights, environmental standards, economic security and gradually reducing tariffs to zero on both sides for non-sensitive agricultural products as well as industrial goods.

  • Previously, EU trade commissioner Maros Sefcovic said the EU is ready to offer EUR50 bn purchases of U.S. gas and agricultural products to address the problem in the trade relationship.

  • The U.S. government is pushing back against the EU's AI code of practice.

UK:

  • The UK government said they were engaging with the U.S. on the implications of the latest tariff announcement and working to provide clarity for industry.

  • The UK will hold talks with the U.S. next week to speed up implementation of a trade pack between two sides.

  • On May 8, the US-UK trade framework was announced. Final details are still under negotiations.

The UK framework includes:

  • UK car makers will be allowed to export 100k cars to the U.S. with a 10% tariff, down from 27.5%.

  • UK farmers will be given a tariff-free quota for 13,000 metric tons of beef exports.

  • Tariffs on UK steel and aluminum are removed.

  • 10% tariffs on other UK goods remained.

  • The UK will purchase $10 bn of Boeing procurement.

  • The UK will remove its tariff on U.S. ethanol to zero.

  • The UK will open access to ethanol, beef, machinery, and agricultural markets.

  • There will be a "fast-track" entry for U.S. goods and vice versa for UK goods.

  • The UK said the digital services tax remains unchanged, which U.S. Senior Trade and Manufacturing Counselor Navarro said it is still under negotiation 

  • The U.S. and the UK "intend to promptly negotiate significantly preferential treatment outcomes on pharmaceuticals and pharmaceutical ingredients.

India:

  • U.S. Commerce Secretary Lutnick said the US-India trade deal is coming soon. Previously, India Commerce Minister Goyal said he had a constructive meeting with U.S. Commerce Minister Lutnick on trade deals.  

  • U.S. officials will visit India on June 5-6 to speed up reaching a trade agreement.

  • U.S. President Trump threatened to impose 25% tariffs on Apple if iPhones are not made in the U.S. Previously, Apple aimed to import most of the iPhones it sells in the U.S. from India by the end of 2026.

  • On April 21, the U.S. and India announced they had agreed to broad terms of negotiation for a potential bilateral trade deal. The U.S. will seek increased market access, lower tariffs and non-tariff barriers, and a robust set of additional commitments

  • A US-India trade agreement under discussion covers 19 categories, including market access for farm goods, e-commerce, data storage, and critical minerals.

  • Negotiators will discuss contentious issues like agricultural tariffs, e-commerce market access, data storage, and critical minerals, with the goal of boosting bilateral trade to $500 billion by 2030 from $127.6 billion last year.

  • U.S. President Trump said India offered to remove tariffs.

  • India is reviewing a U.S. request to lift restrictions on ethanol imports

  • Modi and Trump aim to conclude the first phase of the deal by the fall of this year.

Mexico:

  • Mexican Economy Secretary Marcelo Ebrard expects the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) review to begin between late September and early October.

  • Mexico President Sheinbaum said she will wait to know the full scope of U.S. court ruling on tariffs.

  • Sheinbaum said she discussed U.S. steel and aluminum tariffs with Trump.

  • Sheinbaum said she welcomed the decision by U.S. lawmakers to reduce a proposed tax on remittances to 3.5% from 5% but will continue fighting for these payments to be tax free.

  • U.S. has suspended imports of live cattle, horses and bison from Mexico due to screwworm.

  • Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said there's no sign that the USMCA is going to end.

  • The U.S. and Mexico reached agreements on resolving conflicts over water delivery and the New World screwworm pest, de-escalating the conflict.

  • Mexico's President Claudia Sheinbaum said she discussed steel, aluminum and cars with U.S. President Donald Trump, but they did not yet reach a deal. Trade talk continues.

Canada:

  • Canada Prime Minister Carney said he welcomed the U.S. court ruling on tariffs.

  • Canada Finance Minister Champagne and U.S. Secretary Bessent spoke on the sidelines of the G7 finance minister meeting.

  • Canada PM Carney met U.S. President Trump on May 6.

  • Trump indicated he would strike a friendlier relationship with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, but cast doubt on whether Carney could convince him to lift tariffs on Canada.

Switzerland:

  • Switzerland will discuss with the U.S. easing market access for some agricultural products and simplifying approval for medical devices in order to avert damaging tariffs on its exports.

  • SNB President Schlegel said he had a constructive conversation with the U.S. on FX, and Switzerland is not an FX manipulator.

  • Swiss Confederation President Keller-Sutter said Switzerland might be the next country to sign a U.S. tariff deal, and the letter of intent will be submitted in next 1-2 weeks. And the U.S. would refrain from imposing new tariffs on Switzerland.

South Korea:

  • South Korea's finance ministry said they have an ongoing FX talks with the U.S. counterpart, but no decision has been made. Earlier today, Korea Economic Daily reported that U.S. believes the fundamental cause of the massive U.S. trade deficit is due to strong USD.

  • On May 16, South Korea Trade Minister Inkyo said a US-Korea trade deal is impossible before the election. Inkyo said the U.S. wants to keep its 10% baseline tariffs.

  • U.S. and Korea agreed to share a mutual understanding of the principles they hold for FX operation and would continue to discuss the FX policy.

  • South Korean officials have said cooperation on shipbuilding is a "very important card" the country holds, while participation in an Alaska gas project could be part of a negotiation package, but defense costs were not up for negotiations.

Taiwan:

  • Taiwan Deputy Finance Minister Chen said Taiwan will continue its efforts to secure a trade deal with the U.S., despite the court ruling.

  • On May 15, Taiwan trade negotiator Yang meet U.S. Trade Representative Greer.

  • Taiwan central bank governor Yang said the U.S. did not ask Taiwan to increase the value of TWD during trade talk.

  • Offered zero tariffs.

Thailand:

  • Thailand has submitted proposals to the U.S. including buying more U.S. goods and encouraging firms to invest in the U.S.

  • Thailand is interested in co-developing a massive gas pipeline project in Alaska. Thailand is also open to signing a long-term contract to import 3 to 5 mn tons of LNG from Alaska annually.

  • U.S. wants Thailand to take more steps to prevent certificate of origin misuse by other countries. Also, the U.S. wants Thailand to look into its concerns over FX manipulation.

Brazil:

  • Brazil President Lula has signed agreements with China on Chinese investment, credit lines and purchasing agricultural products.

  • Lula said will defend fair trade based on WTO rules.

  • On May 4, Brazil Finance Minister Haddad met with U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent to discuss tariffs and efforts to attract investments in green energy and critical minerals..

  • Saudi Arabia:

    • Saudi and the U.S. agreed $600 bn of AI and defense deal including AI, defense and other sectors.

  • Israel: Offered to eliminate its trade deficit with the U.S.

  • Argentina: "to readjust the regulations so that we meet the requirements of the reciprocal tariffs proposal developed".

  • Bangladesh: Offered to substantially increase its imports of U.S. goods.

  • Cambodia: Offered to cut tariffs on U.S. imports from 35% to 5%.

Tariffs Tracker:

Court of International Trade Ruling:

Ruling:

  • 10% universal reciprocal tariffs, 30% border/fentanyl tariffs on China, 25% border/fentanyl tariffs on Mexico and Canada goods, and de minimus tariffs are ruled illegal as the administration exceeded what authority it has under the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act.

  • Meanwhile, sector tariffs and tariffs under Trump's first term remain in place.

  • The administration needs to remove these tariffs within 10 days from May 28.

  • The ruling avoids about one-third of new tariffs announced this year.

Appeal:

  • The administration has filed an appeal for the ruling to the Appeals Court for the Federal Circuit, and may eventually go to the Supreme Court.

  • The Appeals court allows tariffs to stay during the process.

  • The Appeals court gave deadlines of Thursday, June 5 for the plaintiffs to respond and June 9 for the U.S. administration to reply.

Alternative Ways:

  • Section 122: The president can impose universal tariffs up to 15% for a maximum period of 150 days, which requires Congressional action to extend afterwards. The law authorizes the president to address a balance of payment deficit or to prevent a significant depreciation in the USD. No formal investigation is needed.

  • Section 232: Sector tariffs which requires administrative procedures that can take time. No limit on tariff levels or duration.

  • Section 301: Requires weeks or even months to complete investigations, which is difficult to apply universally. No limit on tariff levels or duration.

  • Section 338: Allows to impose tariffs up to 50% from countries that discriminate against the U.S. No formal investigation is needed.

Tariffs in Place:

  • 50% global tariffs on steel and aluminum, effective June 4. Previously tariffs were 25% effective March 12.

  • 25% global tariffs on automobile, effective April 3.

  • 25% global tariffs on automobile parts, effective May 3.

  • 3521% tariffs on solar imports from Cambodia, Vietnam, Malaysia and Thailand.

  • 211% tariffs on molded fiber imports from Vietnam.

  • Tariffs imposed during Trump's first term.

Tariffs Remain in Place But Pending U.S. Jurisdiction:

  • 10% global tariffs, effective April 5.

  • De minimus packages shipped to the U.S. from China will no longer be exempted from tariffs starting May 2

  • Individual reciprocal tariffs will be postponed by 90 days except for countries retaliated, effective July 8 (the full list here)

  • EU:

The 50% U.S. tariffs on EU goods were postponed until July 9

China:

  • U.S. extended the exclusion of Section 301 tariffs on some Chinese goods until August 31.

  • The U.S. Commerce Department asked chip design software companies to halt deliveries to China.

  • The U.S. Commerce Department had suspended some licenses that allowed U.S. jet engine companies to sell products and technology to China.

  • The U.S. will start revoking Chinese student visas.

  • The U.S. Commerce Department said it would issue guidance to make clear that using Huawei's Ascend AI chips "anywhere in the world violates US export controls."

  • The U.S. lowered tariffs on China imports to 30% including 10% universal tariffs and 20% Fentanyl tariffs. Other universal tariffs including 25% on steel and aluminum and 25% on autos and auto parts have remained in place. Meanwhile, 24% reciprocal tariffs will be suspended for 90 days to allow for further negotiations, with a deadline on August 12.

  • The U.S.'s weighted average tariff on China imports is lowered to 43.5% from 96%, considering Trump's first term tariffs on China.

  • Nvidia H20 chips export ban.

  • From mid-October, Chinese ship-owners and operators will be charged $50 per ton of cargo with the fees increasing each year for the next three years.

Canada: 25% duties on all non-USMCA compliant goods except for energy and energy resources, which are subject to 10% ad valorem duties (about 38% of Canada exports are USMCA compliant). In case of the fentanyl tariffs are removed, non-USMCA compliant goods would be subject to a 12% reciprocal tariff.

Mexico: 25% duties on all non-USMCA compliant goods (about 50% of Mexico exports are USMCA compliant. In case of the fentanyl tariffs are removed, non-USMCA compliant goods would be subject to a 12% reciprocal tariff.

Tariffs Possibly Coming:

  • Tariffs on electronics including smartphones, computers, laptops, semiconductor devices etc. are temporarily paused. U.S. Commerce Secretary Lutnick said special tariffs on the sector will come soon.

  • Tariffs on pharmaceuticals may come soon.

  • Tariffs on copper may come soon.

  • 100% tariffs on movies produced outside of the U.S. may come soon.

  • 25% tariffs on Apple if iPhones are not made in the U.S.

  • 25% on countries that purchase oil from Venezuela.

Retaliations:

China:

  • China has issued export permits of rare earth to four producers including suppliers to Volkswagen, but the approval process is slow.

  • China has suspended a ban on exports of dual-use items to 28 U.S. companies for 90 days as part of the trade detente with the U.S.

  • Starting from May 14, China lowers tariffs on U.S. goods to 10% with another 24% reciprocal tariffs suspended for 90 days.

  • China has removed the ban on airlines taking delivery of Boeing jets.

  • On May 2, Bloomberg reports China has exempted tariffs on a list of U.S. products covering 131 items like pharmaceuticals and industrials chemicals, worthing $40 bn or 24% of Chinese imports from the U.S. in 2024 (source).

  • Warmed to take reciprocal countermeasures against other countries negotiating with the U.S. if they make a deal at China's expense during the trade war.

  • Halted on U.S. soybean and corn imports.

  • Halted imports of U.S. oil (source). 

EU

  • The EU is planning to impose additional tariffs on EUR95 bn of U.S. exports if trade talks with the U.S. fail to generate a satisfactory result. The breakdown if U.S. goods targeted by EU includes 12.9 bn of chemicals and plastics, 12bn of machinery, 10.4 bn of aircraft, 10.3 of auto parts, 7.2 of electric goods, 6.4bn of agricultural goods and foods and 2bn of motor vehicles (source).

  • Postponed its retaliation measures until July 14. The group planned to impose tariffs on EUR21 bn goods with most of the targeted goods face 25% tariffs, and a few categories set to face 10% tariffs. Some of the EU tariffs will take effect in mid-April, while another list will be imposed mid-May and a third will start on December 1. 

  • Penalized Apple for EUR500 mn and Meta for EUR200 mn due to violating antitrust rules.  

  • Considering introducing restrictions on some exports to the U.S. as a possible retaliatory tactic.

Canada

  • Canada Prime Minister Carney announced a six-month tariff exemption for products used in Canadian manufacturing, processing and food and beverage packaging, and for items related to health care, public safety and national security.

  • Imposed 25% tariffs on CAD30 bn goods from the U.S., effective March 13.

  • Imposed 25% tariffs on U.S. cars, which are not compliant with USMCA, effective April 9.

  • Exempted tariffs on US-assembled automobiles contingent on those automakers continuing to produce vehicles in Canada and on completing planned investments. Automotive News reports that more than 90 percent of vehicles exported from the States to Canada are USMCA compliant. Those vehicles face a 25% tariff on their contents not produced in Canada and Mexico. Finance Canada calculates that the vehicles in question contain 85 percent U.S. content. That math comes out to a 21.25% import tariff on the majority of cars assembled in the U.S. and sold in Canada.

India

  • On May 13, India proposed to impose retaliatory tariffs on U.S. products in response to the steel and aluminum duties from the U.S., despite two countries signaling to reach a deal soon. India aims to cover an $1.9 bn in duties without specifying which U.S. products will be targeted.

Tariffs Exemptions:

  • The Trump administration will not enforce the AI diffusion rule when it takes effect on May 15 and instead plans to develop a new rule that would strengthen the control of chips aboard.

  • On April 29, President Trump signed an executive order to allow automakers to apply for 15% price offsets in the first year of the tariffs and a 10% offset in the second year in a bid to get companies to increase domestic production of automobiles. Also, imported cars will be given a reprieve from separate tariffs on aluminum and steel (detail).

Reciprocal tariffs exemptions:

  • USMCA compliant goods.

  • Steel/aluminum articles and autos/auto parts already subject to 25% tariffs.

  • Copper, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and lumber articles.

  • All articles that may become subject to future Section 232 tariffs (national security related)

  • Bullion (gold).

  • Energy and other certain minerals that are not available in the United States.

Will Human Error Hand AI The Key To Our Destruction?

   In spite of what we read in the medias, the risk of AI is much less a machine going rogue than humans using AI for truly evil purposes as explained below.

  It is already happening but give the hackers and other data thieves a few more months to figure out how to use AI skillfully and we may have real problems.

  But conversely, maybe this will be the impetus to widespread AI use for companies and individuals as computers not protected by AI may soon become easy targets. The race between the spear and the shield applied to AI to accelerate evolution? How unsurprising is this considering the universality of the law of competition and survival of the fittest? Darwinism applied to AI?

Authored by Julio Rivera via American Greatness,

By now, the apocalyptic whispers that once belonged solely to science fiction are starting to sound more like realistic forecasts. Artificial intelligence, once hailed as the great liberator of human productivity and ingenuity, is now moonlighting as a con artist, data thief, and spy.

The machines are rising, yes—but they’re not doing it alone. As we embrace AI with reckless abandon, it’s not the code that’s dooming us. It’s the carbon-based lifeforms behind the keyboard making forehead-slapping mistakes. If civilization does collapse under the weight of digital warfare, it’ll be a joint project between rogue AI and good old-fashioned human idiocy.

Let’s talk about the Rise of the Machines, 2025 edition—not in the form of Terminators with glowing eyes, but as lines of sophisticated code hell-bent on manipulation, infiltration, and destruction. Whether we are willing to accept it or not, AI-powered cyberattacks are becoming disturbingly common and alarmingly sophisticated.

We’re seeing the proliferation of deepfake scams, hyper-personalized phishing attacks, and AI-assisted password cracking that make traditional defenses look as flimsy as a paper umbrella in a hurricane.

Take the case of deepfake fraud, where criminals now impersonate CEOs and executives with astonishing accuracy. These aren’t your cousin’s sloppy Photoshop jobs. These are full-motion, pitch-perfect, AI-generated replicas of real people, used in schemes to authorize fraudulent wire transfers, manipulate employees, or simply throw entire organizations into chaos. It’s not just unsettling. It’s an outright weaponization of trust—an erosion of reality itself.

And don’t forget AI-generated phishing emails. These aren’t the hilariously broken English scams from 2006. AI now writes flawless prose, mirroring the tone and style of your boss, your bank, or your kid’s school, tricking you into clicking that one wrong link that detonates ransomware across your organization like a digital IED. The machines aren’t playing chess anymore—they’re playing you.

But even as AI’s capabilities soar into dystopian territory, the greatest cybersecurity threat isn’t machine intelligence. It’s human incompetence. You could hand someone the most secure system in the world, and they’ll still manage to set it on fire with a reused password or a click on an “urgent invoice” from a Nigerian prince.

report by NinjaOne drives this point home with a sledgehammer: nearly 95% of cybersecurity breaches are caused by human error. Think about that. Not Skynet, not Chinese cyber commandos or North Korean hackers in basements—but Steve in Accounting, who uses “123456” as his password and clicks on pop-ups promising free iPhones.

The attack vectors are depressingly mundane: downloading unsafe software, failing to update systems, weak passwords, falling for phishing scams, and misconfigured security settings.

It’s like locking your house with a deadbolt and then leaving the window wide open with a neon sign that says, “Come on in!” And yet, these mistakes are committed daily in both small businesses and Fortune 500 firms alike.

Compounding this mess is the cyber climate we find ourselves in. While the Biden administration made a lot of noise about cybersecurity (including a 2021 executive order that read like a cyber-fantasy novel), the reality has been more bark than bite. The cyber talent shortage identified during his term is still here. In fact, it’s worse.

Across the board, we are woefully understaffed. The Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA), for example, is running with fewer hands. Meanwhile, budget cuts threaten to kneecap already stretched-thin federal cyber teams. But here’s the catch: this isn’t a dig at DOGE. Frankly, it’s not the government’s fight alone.

In an era where the bureaucracy is clearly not nimble or robust enough to be the cyber bodyguard of every business, school district, and hospital, it’s time for individuals and private entities to shoulder the digital shield. The idea that Uncle Sam can magically protect every database, email server, and Wi-Fi-enabled lightbulb from hostile AI is, quite frankly, a joke—and not a funny one.

So, where does that leave us?

It means that responsibility, like it or not, is decentralized. Your small business, your city council, your local school, and yes, your grandma’s Wi-Fi router all play a role in national cyber resilience. Everyone from the CEO to the intern must realize that the click of a mouse can ignite a digital inferno.

This isn’t paranoia. This is math. The AI-fueled cybercriminals don’t sleep, don’t blink, and don’t need to take lunch breaks. They can run cyber threats around the clock, generating thousands of enticing money-related phishing schemes per second or trying billions of password combinations while sipping binary lattes. The only thing stopping them is us—and right now, “us” is losing.

The solution isn’t some magical new firewall or sexy blockchain band-aid. It’s basic digital hygiene. It’s updating software. It’s using multi-factor authentication. It’s protecting social media accounts and credentials. It’s training staff not to download every sketchy app they’re offered, like over-caffeinated lab rats. It’s investing in AI-powered defense tools to fight fire with fire—automated threat detection, behavioral analysis, and predictive breach detection. In other words, if the machines are evolving, so must we.

But none of this works without awareness. The greatest virus we face isn’t malware. It’s apathy. Too many Americans still treat cybersecurity like flossing—important, sure, but something they’ll get around to eventually. Meanwhile, AI doesn’t wait. It doesn’t procrastinate. It hunts.

So yes, the rise of the machines may well usher in the end of civilization—but only if we stand by and let it happen. The antidote isn’t panic. It’s preparation. It’s competence. It’s proper AI oversight. And it’s waking up to the fact that we are all soldiers in a quiet war where the front lines are firewalls, not foxholes.

Because at the end of the day, the machines aren’t coming to destroy us.

We’re just really, really good at destroying ourselves.

Tuesday, June 3, 2025

Analysis: Gold’s Pricing Implies Treasuries Are Junk

   The report below is a "market report" and as such it contains very little wisdom but within a larger framework, it suddenly becomes something else...

   Over the last few months, the VIX (market volatility index) has hovered above 20. This is a high and dangerous level because it implies harsher market conditions. If you want to speculate or protect yourself, the higher the VIX goes, the more expensive derivatives become. This is bad for speculators (or market makers, often the same) but it can be deadly for ordinary companies for whom everything becomes more expensive. Suppose you are a Japanese or German company exporting to Thailand. If you can cover yourself and sell now the Thai Bahts you're going to receive next month, you're safe. You know how much you're going to receive. But if the VIX is very high and consequently the cost of covering the exchange rate is exorbitant, you're not going to do it and the risk of currency loss can be very high, wiping out all your profits. This is not a detail as eventually it will act as a brake on the economy.

  Likewise, the cost of long term borrowing for the US (above 4.5% for 10 years) and for Japan (above 3.5% for 20 years) is skyrocketing in spite of massive buy-backs from the central banks. And here we see one of the reason for the rise, the implied risk premium of confiscation which is below calculated at 5+%.

  In both case, what we are witnessing is the breakdown of markets which are already heavily controlled. This is why we literally cannot have a recession at this stage. Everything would break. Over-indebted companies would go belly-up, trade would stop to a standstill and governments would not be able to refinance their huge piles of debt. They would practically be bankrupt. 

  This is what approaching the storm looks like. The markets, at least on the front pages of the newspapers are doing well, although in the background, slowly the old structures are hissing and cracking like an old galleon in a storm. The interest rates are water rising in the hull. Trade withering are the sails being lowered due to rising winds (the VIX). Implied gold premiums are "other" (mostly long term bonds) goods being thrown overboard to lighten the boat. Let's not take the overused example of the Titanic to illustrate why the fact that the music is still playing on the main deck not necessarily a good sign, but you get the picture. The captain while reassuring the passengers must be getting more and more worried reading reports as this one:

Why Gold Is Replacing Treasuries in Reserve Portfolios

SEB (Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken), is a leading financial services group in Northern Europe. They published an interesting (if aggressive) comment on Gold vs Treasuries. Here is that analysis broken down with their original comments attached.

Contents

  1. The End of a Longstanding Correlation
  2. Treasuries Now Carry Political Risk
  3. Quantifying the Risk: A 5% Political Discount
  4. Gold’s Implied Risk Premium Is 5.7%
  5. Strategic Drivers Ahead: US–China Conflict, Powell’s Successor
  6. Gold as Core, Treasuries as Conditional

 

The End of a Longstanding Correlation

Historically, gold traded inversely to U.S. 10-year real yields. That relationship held for years, reinforcing the idea that gold was a simple reflection of inflation expectations. But the correlation broke decisively in Q1 2022. The turning point wasn’t a macroeconomic event—it was geopolitical.

Following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Western central banks froze approximately $600 billion in Russian FX reserves, the majority of which were held in U.S. dollars and euro-denominated assets. The move shattered the assumption that sovereign reserves—even in the absence of default—were untouchable. It introduced a new axis of risk: political confiscation.

Treasuries Now Carry Political Risk

To reserve managers in Beijing, Riyadh, and elsewhere outside the G7 framework, the seizure of Russian reserves was a warning. It indicated that access to U.S. Treasuries is contingent on political alignment with Washington. From a portfolio construction standpoint, this amounts to introducing a “confiscation tail-risk” into what was once considered the world’s safest asset.

No formal default occurred. Yet for all practical purposes, the reserves failed. In a sanctions-driven world, the traditional safe haven becomes a conditional one. Holding U.S. government bonds now includes a non-trivial probability of being locked out of your own assets.

Quantifying the Risk: A 5% Political Discount

How do non-Western central banks internalize this new environment? The report offers a plausible scenario: they may now price in a 5% chance (1-in-20 odds) of bond confiscation. If such an outcome carries irreversible consequences, a rational actor would demand at least a 5% additional yield to offset the risk.

Continues here

Kremlin Hawks Frustrated That Putin Still Has Not Declared Formal State Of War

  War hawks are thinking with their emotions, Putin is thinking with his brain!    The logic is understandable, SpiderWeb was a blow. Why no...