When conspiracy theories go mainstream, you know you have a problem!
What are the Davos Elites really after?
Understanding that the system which gave them birth is toast, it may just be their own survival at the expense of everyone else!
Are they really trying to engineer a crash to their own liking by ignoring pesky but mostly correct economic orthodoxy? Your take is as good as mine at this stage although it is now a matter of months, maybe weeks before the masks fall off.
Forget Ukraine, it is a side show.
The real war is between the US and China. It is still about trade and technology at this stage but it is getting warmer by the day.
The challenge of China on the hegemony of the US is existential . It is THE story of the next 10 years.
Semiconductor stocks across the globe - in Hong Kong, Europe and certainly in the US - are tumbling after the Biden administration on Friday unveiled new restrictions on technology exports to China which are meant to undercut Beijing's ability to develop wide swaths of its economy, from semiconductors and supercomputers to surveillance systems and advanced weapons.
As noted earlier, the US Commerce Department on Friday unveiled sweeping new regulations that limit the sale of semiconductors and chip-making equipment to Chinese customers, striking at the foundation of the country’s efforts to build its own chip industry. The agency also added 31 organizations to its unverified list, including Yangtze Memory Technologies and a subsidiary of leading chip equipment maker Naura Technology, severely limiting their ability to buy technology from abroad.
The move is the Biden admin’s most aggressive yet as it tries to stop China from developing technological capabilities it sees as a threat. And, as Bloomberg notes, depending on how broadly Washington enforces the restrictions, the impact could extend well beyond semiconductors and into industries that rely on high-end computing, from electric vehicles and aerospace to simple gadgets like smartphones.
The two countries are now officially in an “economic war,” Dylan Patel, chief analyst at SemiAnalysis, said. A Chinese analyst said there is “no possibility of reconciliation” any longer.
Chinese state media and officials over the weekend raged against the action, warning of economic consequences and stirring speculation about potential retaliation. He Xiaopeng, chairman and CEO of Chinese EV maker Xpeng, warned last month that escalating US restrictions on chip exports will set back the nation’s autonomous driving sector.
“This is the US salvo against China’s efforts to build its domestic tech capabilities,” said Patel, who estimates the restrictions could reduce global technology and industry trade by hundreds of billions of dollars. “It’s the US firing back, making clear they will fight back.”
European and Chinese semiconductor stocks tumbled on the news. ASML Holding NV, the most advanced maker of equipment for producing semiconductors, fell more than 3%. Bellwether Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp. fell as much as 5.2% in Hong Kong on Monday, the most since Aug. 15, as Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Charles Shum slashed his estimate on 2023 growth by 50%. Hua Hong Semiconductor Ltd. plunged 10%, while Shanghai Fudan Microelectronics Group Co. plummeted 25%. Naura fell by its daily limit of 10% in mainland China, the biggest fall since April.
signal about US policy on China: a very hawkish consensus is now cemented in place."
US officials said the new restrictions are necessary to stop China from becoming more of an economic and military menace. As a reminder, it was back in 2018 when we first explained that the "trade" war with China was really all about chips and semiconductors, preventing China from overtaking the US before it's too late. They are seeking to ensure the country’s chipmakers don’t secure the capability to make advanced semiconductors.
China “has poured resources into developing supercomputing capabilities and seeks to become a world leader in artificial intelligence by 2030,” said Assistant Secretary of Commerce for Export Administration Thea D. Rozman Kendler. “It is using these capabilities to monitor, track and surveil their own citizens, and fuel its military modernization.”
Reaction in China was furious. The nationalistic Global Times newspaper warned the “savage attack on free trade” would have dire consequences for the US.
“Only arrogant and ignorant people can truly believe that the US can block the development of China’s semiconductor or other technology industries by these illegitimate means,” it said in an editorial. “The US hegemony in science and technology that harms others without benefiting itself may bring some short-term difficulties to China’s semiconductor industry, but will in turn strengthen China’s will and ability to stand on its own in science and technology.”
Quoted by Bloomberg, China's Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said the measures are unfair and will “deal a blow to global industrial and supply chains and world economic recovery.”
“The reality is the US is determined to use chips as a tool to contain China,” Gu Wenjun, head of Chinese chip researcher ICwise, wrote in an online commentary. “There is no possibility of reconciliation.”
The new US regulations broadly limit chipmakers from selling to China artificial intelligence semiconductors and those that can be used for supercomputers. Nvidia Corp. warned in September that government restrictions on exporting AI chips to China could affect hundreds of millions of dollars in revenue, sending its stock tumbling. Chipmakers can request a Commerce Department exception to those rules. But they should presume such requests will be denied, senior officials said.
Commerce also put in place a raft of restrictions on supplying US machinery that’s capable of making advanced semiconductors. It’s targeting the types of memory and logic chips that are at the heart of state-of-the-art designs.
Specifically, the restrictions cover production of logic chips using so-called nonplanar transistors made with 16-nanometer technology or anything more advanced than that, 18-nanometer dynamic random access memory chips and Nand-style flash memory chips with 128 layers or more (the smaller the number of nanometers, the more capable the chip).
Stacy Rasgon and a team from Sanford C. Bernstein explained the restrictions on AI, supercomputers and advanced chip-making equipment, while pointing out that the standard CPUs used in personal computers and servers would not be blocked from export to China, as some had feared.
“The changes represent a further escalation, and we do not know what China might do in response,” the Bernstein analysts wrote. “Potential retaliation remains a risk.”
Well there is always an invasion or blockade of Taiwan, just as Biden is doing his best to drain the "emergency" petroleum reserve to win a few Democratic votes.
Finally, as Bloomberg notes, one key question is how the US rules will affect the ability of companies like ASML to sell into China. The Dutch company is effectively the most important supply chain company for chipmakers around the world.
ASML has had to strike a challenging balance between the US and China. It has been selling its deep ultraviolet, or DUV, machines to Chinese customers, but has held back from selling its more advanced extreme ultraviolet, or EUV, machines. Under the new Commerce Department restrictions, the company may be limited from selling DUV technology to Chinese customers too, Citigroup analysts wrote.
“We are assessing the potential implications of the new regulations, if any, and cannot comment at this moment,” said Monique Mols, a spokesperson for ASML.
According to Patel of SemiAnalysis, the unverified list is a serious threat to China’s tech ambitions. In the past, the Commerce Department cut off access to critical technologies for companies like Huawei when they were added to the so-called entity list, meaning the agency had gathered evidence against them. The unverified list simply means the Commerce Department can’t verify that a company’s activities are safe.
“That is huge,” he said. “They can pretty much blacklist any company they want in China within two months.”
Is this the real war?
Authored by Oscar Silva-Valladares via The Ron Paul Institute for Peace & Prosperity,
The recent ceremony of accession of four Ukrainian regions to Russia brought a speech from President Putin that outlined the reasons behind Russia’s current struggles, the character and identify of its foes and, more importantly, laid the groundwork for Russia’s next level of confrontation with the West beyond the ongoing military conflict in Ukraine. In his speech, Putin clearly defined the present fight as a worldwide battle in which Russia plays a leading role against the Deep State that ultimately runs the West and which uses all available tools - including military, economic, cultural, and social – in its attempt to preserve unipolar world domination
Putin’s words were directed to three distinctive audiences: the collective West, the Global South and Russia. He went back to Middle Ages history to remind the origins and impact of Western resource exploitation and colonialism in the Americas, Asia and Africa through imperialistic wars, racism, and slavery. He touched upon the military exploits of the 20th century led primarily by the US and its allies and its impact in Germany and Japan at the end of the Second World War, Korea in the 1950s, Vietnam in the 1960-70s and its latest failed adventures in Iraq, Libya, Syria, and Afghanistan. He also highlighted the dire days of Russia during the 1990s and the Western powers’ attempts to turn it into a dismembered and passive cheap natural resources outlet. Putin’s message to Russians had nationalistic and religious tones, touching on the defence of traditional family values as a call to arms against the threat caused by dwindling population growth. He also named US monetary printing as one of the key tools used by the Western establishment to achieve its self-preservation and supremacy goals, reminding that paper doesn’t feed nor warms human beings.
It would be tempting to see this speech narrowly as just another manifestation of Russia’s position in the big geopolitical battles, but what Putin has done is setting international rivalry in deep historical and cultural terms which have an undoubted appeal across the globe. Critics will see Putin’s benign characterization of Russia as a cynical ploy that hides the country’s role, through its commanding post in the Soviet Union, in the subjugation of Eastern European countries after World War II, but nevertheless the Global South will see things differently.
Putin’s scathing attack against the West is a multi-headed weapon as it rallied to the conservative segments of a population dismayed by globalism imposing a deeply disturbing agenda that goes against traditional views on family, marriage and sex, but it also has leftist tones, as his criticism also goes against the same globalism that is worsening wealth disparity, and even a libertarian appeal as he referred to the imposition of states of emergency, media control and sanctions on other societies as examples of Western made totalitarianism. Putin’s primary target was the Anglo-Saxon establishment, mainly the US and Great Britain, and he attempted to build a wedge within the West as he focused on sovereignty, a cry with resonance in countries like Hungary and Italy, and on traditional anti-war sentiments in Germany and Japan by remembering the horrors of the World War II bombings in Dresden, Hamburg, Cologne, Hiroshima, and Nagasaki.
An immediate consequence of Putin’s rhetorical escalation will be increased US pressure on the Global South to follow anti-Russian sanctions. To successfully counter this menace, and as Russia needs its continuous support, it will have to combine ideology with pragmatic and tangible support in terms of access to critical energy and food resources to the poorer countries. The recent abstentions of China, India and Brazil on a UN Security Council resolution calling for condemnation of the Ukraine referenda no doubt were driven by these countries’ expectations on Russia’s future actions.
Following the end of the Cold War and the collapse of the Soviet Union, and as it gradually abandoned socialism, Russia lost the powerful ideological appeal that it had during decades in the Global South and in the West’s anti-establishment segments. The most remarkable aspect of Putin’s recent speech is bringing back ideological confrontation into the forefront. This new battle looks to present the West’s defence of democracy, freedom, and sovereignty as hollow and hypocritical. A combined message of anti-colonialism and conservatism is a powerful tool but Putin’s indirect and subtle appeal to people power as the only way to finally counter the Deep State is even stronger. Putin’s identification of the Deep State as humanity’s foe may be his ultimate ideological legacy, something avoidable if the US would have resigned itself to be just a normal country and to focus primarily on its people’s prosperity.
Great video but two years? How optimistic!
Still a very knowledgeable talk. Plenty to learn about finance there.
But the process has now started... (see below)
New Prime Minister Liz Truss may have only weeks to deliver a confidence turnaround in the UK economy or face a surge in violent crime and breakdown in public order caused by a cost-of-living crisis.
The Times revealed police chiefs fear "economic turmoil and financial instability" has the "potential to drive increases in particular crime types," such as shoplifting, burglary, vehicle theft, and online fraud and blackmail, as Brits face one of the worst collapses in living standards in a century amid energy hyperinflation.
"Prolonged and painful economic pressure" could spark "greater civil unrest," similar to the 2011 London riots, the leaked national strategy paper read.
"Greater financial vulnerability may expose some staff to a higher risk of corruption, especially among those who fall into significant debt or financial difficulties," it continued.
One police chief noticed increased violent crime as inflation is stuck at multi-decade highs. This comes as energy regulator Ofgem increased the cap on power bills to a record £3,549 ($4,189) beginning Oct. 1 from £1,971 ($2,330). That cap is expected to rise to £5,439 ($6,427) by January and £7,272 ($8,594) by spring.
Besides police, energy executives warned that mass civil unrest looms as people cannot afford their heating and electricity bills this winter.
About 160,000 Brits have joined a movement against skyrocketing electricity bills, vowing not to pay come Oct. 1.
Last Friday, Russia's energy giant Gazprom PJSC halted flows via Nord Stream 1 to Europe, sending EU natural gas and electricity prices soaring on Monday. This means Truss hardly has any time to deliver a coherent strategy to save households from energy poverty and businesses from failing.
The massive protest in Prague this past weekend, where tens of thousands of Czechs flooded the streets, offers a glimpse of the impending social unrest that could hit the street of the UK if power bills continue rising without government intervention.
Published last week was a new report via Verisk Maplecroft, a UK-based risk consulting and intelligence firm, warning there's a high risk of social unrest in Europe later this year due to rising inflation.
Europeans
are finally waking up to how bad Western sanctions on Russia have
backfired, as their governments sacrificed ordinary people over NATO's
proxy fight against Russia in Ukraine. These protests could spread like
wildfire across Europe, and it appears the UK is preparing for the
worst-case scenario.
What is extraordinary about this drawing is that it dates from approximately 6,200 BC (The drawing can be dated in part thanks to the erupting volcano in the background.) or close to the very beginning of civilization although the origin of the village seems to be around 7,200 BC which is very close to the filling up of the Black Sea around 7,400 BC. (https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quaint.2015.05.011)
It shows a relatively egalitarian society where all the houses are more or less the same size and tools are used in common. No fortifications or military equipment were found but the sheer number of people must have been the best defense at that time since no other such large settlements are known in the area.
All this would be about 2,500 years after the end of the younger Dryas 11,600 years ago, the last glaciation which fits almost perfectly with the time it took for early agriculture and domestication of animals to develop.
This happened a few thousand years before the earliest signs of civilization in Mesopotamia, China and Egypt. (At that time the Sahara is still green and populations have not yet been concentrated in the Nile Valley.)
As such, the complete human civilization process fits within 9,000 short years since these early signs of organization and well within the latest "warm" period beginning uncannily with the very earliest signs of "warmth" as can be seen in the chart below.
Which itself is almost insignificant on a slightly larger scale map based on measurements taken at Lake Vostok in Antarctica where the full "recent" warm period above is little but the last red blip!
What if it is time to end this blog?
Or rather to go back to technical subjects that almost no one is interested in? 😁
I had great fun sharing some insight with people about energy, technology and the market but now that the long anticipated collapse is upon us, foresight is quickly becoming obsolete. What's the point of keeping tracks of your direction in a polar fog if your short term objective is solely focused on not falling into ice cracks?
Likewise, we will quickly be overwhelmed with short term emergencies so that eventually, most people will focus on "cheap" easy to understand solutions paving the way to demagogues and tyrants as history repeats itself.
We literally and pathetically learn almost nothing as a society repeating the same mistakes time after time. The end of democracy is therefore in sight proving Mencken was right: "Democracy is a pathetic belief in the collective wisdom of individual ignorance"
My sole smallish schadenfreude is that the collapse will not follow the roadmap anticipated by the World Economic Forum towards their dystopian "New World Order". What we will get instead is a new world disorder. A fog of war from which few will benefit since income will crash faster than population. (Although you can trust these people that they will try. They are after all the richest and brightest.)
With luck and provided we avoid a nuclear armaggedon, (50% chance according to most "experts"), we will still get the four horsemen of war, pestilence, famine and death. It is at this stage unavoidable. The die is cast.
This Winter will be hard but nothing compared to next year and the following years as the rapid unraveling of our social order will make everything scarce. Especially in developing countries which will suffer even more. Inflation and "free" money is nothing but transfer from the poor who don't have access to it to the rich who do.
And this is THE reason why this blog must be terminated as it will slowly turn to doom and gloom in line with current events.
Interesting times ahead for sure!
Authored by Tumoas Malinen via The Epoch Times,
Probably the most important thing in forecasting is the ability to ask: What if something is not how you think it is? Open speculation on world developments is the key to establishing a position, where basically nothing can really surprise you. And at that point, you have come so far as a forecaster.
The “What if?” questions I am currently asking are:
What if the raid of the Mar-a-Largo resort of President Trump was politically motivated?
What if the war in Ukraine was part of some plan to break the emerging Eurasian (China, Europe, Russia) global power structure?
What if central banks, or the “power brokers” behind them, know that monetary policies are going to crush the economy with interest rate hikes?
(To continue:) What if central bankers are deliberately pushing for the central bank digital currencies, or CBDCs, to gain total oversight over the economy?
The first two are rather political, but as I mentioned before, politics has become a major factor affecting the global economy. That is why the questions need to be addressed and, perhaps, speculated upon.
Speculation on the actual reasons behind the Trump raid are already running high. There have been reports of Federal Bureau of Investigation whistleblowers coming forward with statements on the politicization of the FBI. At this point, this is naturally pure speculation, and political games, but these are alternative narratives we can consider, because if they turn out to be true, they will have serious repercussions.
Most important, if the raid was politically motivated, why is former President Donald Trump viewed as such a threat to the current system, or the “establishment,” such that his possible becoming again the president of the United States should be stopped? Comparing the tenures of Presidents Barrack Obama and Joe Biden with that of the one term of President Trump, for example, the latter was a rather peaceful and prosperous world.
Due to the Ukraine–Russia war, Europe may be facing its darkest winter since 1945. Our economic systems and societies are unlikely to be able to withstand major energy and possible food crises combined with interest rate hikes. Due to sanctions and central bank policies, we could be facing the deepest economic crisis since World War II, which also would make primarily Europeans a lot poorer.
This leads to the question: Why on earth did President Vladimir Putin attack Ukraine?
He had to know that it would lead to a serious backlash. It also is possible that there were other forces in play that paved the path toward war. There’s the scenario that some powerful entities in the United States wanted to stop the formation of the economic power structure among China, Europe, and Russia. The “entities” would have known which policies would push Putin “over the edge.” This is, again, just speculation, but it’s an idea we need to consider, because, if accurate, it would mean that the economic prosperity of Europeans and possibly the world is being “sacrificed” for a geopolitical play or to accomplish an even more ominous objective.
Could this impoverishment, and thus a controlling of the middle-class through ravaging inflation and indebtedness, be a possible endgame of the “globalists” possibly threatened by another presidential term for Trump?
The question with central bank policies is equally pressing and worrying.
A sound economy needs no savior. It also does not need anyone to “push” it to grow with, for example, artificially low interest rates, as a healthy economy grows organically from the risk-taking of entrepreneurs, corporations, and individuals with the assistance of the financial system. Mistakes naturally do happen, and they sometimes lead to serious financial crashes and economic crises. However, stringent and punitive policies toward excessive financial speculation are truly the only remedy against “moral hazard” and other financial malpractices leading to crises. The financial crises in Finland and Japan during the early 1990s are good examples of this. And it should be remembered that the biggest economic crisis thus far, the Great Depression of the 1930s, occurred just 16 years after the creation of the Federal Reserve.
Moreover, for the past decades, central bankers have manipulated our economies through interest rates and asset purchasing (and selling) programs (quantitative easing and tightening). What has this led us into? The global economy is more fragile than ever, and many heavily indebted sovereigns, such as those in the eurozone, remain solvent only by continuous central bank support. Essentially, the world economy is in constant need of resuscitation because of central bank policies.
How demented would be that, after destroying an economy, central bankers would make themselves appear as our saviors?
It would be Machiavellian: to crash something just to get more power over it.
This, however, could be the “hand” central bankers are playing, especially through the looming issuance of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs). The issuance of digital currencies controlled by the central banks would eventually annihilate the banking system, or make it an obedient follower of central bank policies. This is because, especially during crises, deposits would flock to the central bank from commercial banks, as all deposits in the central bank are essentially fully covered by the taxpayers, or the State, and the money creation (printing) abilities of the central bank. This would lead the central bank to obtain a monopoly-like power in banking.
Then only cash would need to be banned for the central banks to gain full control of interest rates, and the economy. The end result would be an economic dystopia, where the ability of citizens’ to control their own (economic) fate—a particular kind of agency—will effectively have been taken away.
This is something central bankers may try to sell us after the economy crashes, through the rationalization of “safety.” This again is speculation that ought to be considered as the end result of such an aim; it truly would be horrible, on the level of a kind of enslavement of the populace.
So, I urge everyone to ask the “What if?” questions presented above (and more).
This is because if any of them (not to mention several not discussed above) turn out to be true, we are living in a very different world that has been presented to us.
More on the imploding Chinese bubble.
It is getting more and more obvious that the black swan of this crisis will be Chinese.
Get ready, the whole world will be impacted.
Over the last two years, this blog has slowly morphed from data and business to the ongoing crisis which is slowly taking on apocalyptic proportions.
The huge Chinese bubble imploding.
The absurd but very real energy crisis in Europe.
The Worldwide financial market heading strait to the wall due to 30 years of over leveraged banking system.
And the weather changing back to a much more variable pattern so frequent and ominous in the past.
All these waves and forces are converging on us and will strike sometimes between the end of this year and next year, rocking our economy as it hasn't been for over 500 years.
Get ready. The tsunami is coming!
Authored by Bill Blain via MorningPorridge.com,
“The church bell chimed ’til it rang twenty-nine times, for each man on the Edmund Fitzgerald”
Warning – Readers of a sensitive nature may wish to take a chill pill before reading this morning’s Porridge comment. Remember, the sun will come up tomorrow. The market might not.
Red Sky in the Morning – Sailor take warning. I woke to a vivid red sky this morning – by the time I rushed upstairs to snap a photograph it was already fading. In sailor lore Red Skies presage storms – it’s the rising sun reflecting off high levels of water vapour carried by approaching weather fronts that causes the bright red effect. Curiously, it’s been the quietest Caribbean Hurricane Season in decades, yet I suspect there is an almighty storm already upon global markets – we are so caught up in it we don’t realise its knocking on the windows – and about to knock them out!
The worst part of any storm is not the Eye (which is calm), or even the winds and storm surges as the gale approaches. The strongest winds are just outside the “eye-wall”, following the path of destruction. The really sustained high-winds and storm waves are in the following quarters. When it’s an Atlantic storm barrelling into Europe from across the Atlantic, is the bottom left-hand of the rotating storm where the winds are strongest and most destructive.
Which is all a long-winded way of saying.. this might get worse.. Much worse.
Despite many storm warnings – this market is ill prepared for the kind of instability about to hit, as recession, stagflation, geo-politics, domestic politics, energy, food, inflation and the rest combine in that most misused of metaphors; a Perfect Storm. There is no such thing – every storm is different – and it’s not the things you see coming that maims you, it’s the things you don’t!
Following Jackson Hole last week – where the Fed and other Central Banks confirmed the battle versus inflation means higher rates for longer – the market has staged a predictable sell-back. The numbers look bad – but hardly terminal. It still looks kind of normal for a typical September market reverse, a correction. The gains from the summer rally will probably be wiped out, but market participants will be expecting the next play to begin. In the next few days we will be back to talk of recovery.
Nothing much to panic about when the US 2 year bonds nearly hit 3.5%. Stocks in reverse. The VIX fear indicator of stock volatility is up to 27. None of these are chaotic – yet. Arrr…. The calm will not last…
The wind in the wires made a tattle-tale sound
And a wave broke over the railing
And every man knew, as the captain did too
T’was the witch of September come stealin’
The big issue is how prepared for a market blow are we? Anyone with a career record under 15-years has never experienced a real market gale – the last one being the Global Financial Crisis of 2008. I reckon that’s well over 50% of the financial workforce. Their careers have been forged in markets artificially supported by quantitative easing and Zero Interest rates. Now we are stepping into aggressive rate hikes and quantitative tightening – with the Fed confirming a steep pace of hikes to tame inflation, even if it causes a slowdown. And the financial conditions barometer is tumbling as consumers and business face impossible budget calls.
This is a new game.
Lots of young fund managers will be looking at their books and wondering how they are going to reverse the 10-15% losses they’ve sustained this year. The compliance and risk management mitigation mindset that dominates institutional investor groupthink will largely ensure they don’t bet the farm on big risky bets, but for most funds – which means the money folk are saving for retirement – it’s going to a very bad year.
Risk and groupthink mean there are going to be fewer folk out there looking for risky opportunities – potentially meaning the crisis last longer. Losses on losses, at a time when consumer discretionary spending and pension saving will have been hammered by inflation, will have profound consequences on the future market. Forget the walls of money that’s fuelled funds, and speculative market rallies – we’re looking at significantly less money coming into markets.
Bankers will be smiling. They are focused on how the transfer of wealth from the poor to the rich was accelerated by QE and now means the top 1% of the global population own over 58% of societies wealth and assets. No wonder investment banks are hiring aggressively into private banking and wealth management services! Family offices don’t mind being smoozed.
Meanwhile… The Fed and the US economy can afford some economic misery. The US is largely detached from the global energy price shock, and will survive global recession in its largely self-contained domestic bubble. A recession will hurt – but won’t kill the economy.
This gathering storm is going to hit Europe hardest. Energy insecurity and the Ukraine war is responsible, but a large number of ECB board members are publicly calling for an unparalleled 75 bp hike to tame the inflation beast, and to reverse the sinking Euro (down 15% this year, and headed lower). Higher rates and a deepening economic crisis as Europe heads into recession and rising unemployment is scary, and doubly so as soaring energy costs look likely to trigger rising social tensions. As I’ve said before, when the going gets tough, the French will be revolting.
The dawn came late and the breakfast had to wait
When the gales of September came slashin’
When afternoon came it was freezin’ rain
In the face of a hurricane west wind
As for the UK. La-la land. New prime minister next week, promising tax cuts for the rich and regressive tax allowances to fight soaring energy bill – when the bottom 40% of the UK don’t pay tax. It won’t help the national mood to know our new Aircraft Carrier, the Prince of Wales, broke down a few miles from port yesterday on its way to a major deployment. Oops.. Sums up busted Britain.
What comes next isn’t pretty.
Since 1985 I’ve experienced a number of market crashes. They have been shocking, sharp and surprising. In every case they were caused by a blindingly obvious financial market imbalance – like consumer lending risks, over-exuberance, unsustainable expectations, etc. The coming crisis is very different – it’s been a series of exogenous shocks; Covid, and now Energy and Ukraine. It feels more fundamental that the simple market mispricings that triggered some form of market crash every 6-7 years. These were short, and we quickly recovered.
What is coming is something worse. This may be a once in a century storm…
When suppertime came, the old cook came on deck sayin’
“Fellas, it’s too rough to feed ya”
At seven PM, a main hatchway caved in, he said
“Fellas, it’s been good to know ya”
This is developing into something with a smattering of 1929 – unravelling massive financial mispricings – together with the exogenous effects of the wartime shocks in 1914 and from 1939. Forget inflation and growth, but consider issues like expertise, experience, groupthink, panic and fear, and the crushing of small investors trying to figure out where this might go next..
The captain wired in he had water comin’ in
And the good ship and crew was in peril
And later that night when his lights went outta sight
Came the wreck of the Global Economy
The one positive thing I can add.. following any storm.. the seas calm, the sun comes up, and we go out and do it all again..
Footnote – On August 11, 1979, 303 small yachts set out on the Fastnet Race from the Isle of Wight to the famous lighthouse off the South-Western tip of Ireland and back to Plymouth. There were strong winds forecast, but nothing unmanagable. It turned out much worse. The fleet was hit by a weather bomb as fronts combined to create a Force 11 Hurricane. 15 sailors died. Lessons have been learnt – mainly that: “there is nothing always about a storm at sea except its danger.”
Same thing in markets….
Mostly data from the UK but excess deaths are significant and correlate quite closely to vaccination campaigns...
This is exactly why you should not let 16 year old kids dictate your energy policy!
Whatever Europe does now, there is simply no exit to the conundrum they have created.
It is a "good thing" in a way as it will largely impede the WEF plan for a great reset although we'll get all the upheaval part and more.
Anyone with any sense could have seen it coming – Europe is on the precipice of an economic and social crisis not seen since World War II; and they basically did it to themselves. Ever since the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent NATO sanctions, the talking heads in the mainstream media have consistently fed the public an endless narrative on how the EU doesn't need Russian natural gas. We've heard an array of theories and chest beating from corporate journalists and lying politicians; all of them sounding so certain that Russia would be isolated and economically destroyed within no time. This has not happened, and now the reverse might soon be true for the EU and the UK.
To give you a sense of the disinformation being peddled to the public on this issue, take a look at the 10 point “battle plan” put together by the International Energy Agency (IEA) back in March to cut off Russian energy imports and save the EU from a crisis:
1) Don't sign new gas supply contracts with Russia. (REALITY: This foolishly assumes that Russia wants to sign new contracts with Europe.)
2) Replace Russian gas supplies with alternative sources. (REALITY: No alternative sources exist that can come close to filling Europe's energy needs and that can be as easily transported. Europe will have to draw on energy commodities from around the world, taking up a large piece of a shrinking pie and driving up prices for most nations on the planet in the process.)
3) Introduce minimum gas storage rules. (REALITY: This assumes there will be gas to store for later.)
4) Accelerate the deployment of new wind and solar projects. (REALITY: Anti-carbon fantasy land not based in science. There is no green energy in existence which has the ability to heat European homes and fuel their industry except nuclear, and EU governments have consistently been hostile to nuclear projects.)
5) Maximize gas power from bio-energy and nuclear. (REALITY: The more bio-energy you develop the less farmland you have available for food. And, nuclear power plants take years to build and EU governments continue to fight them. If the EU had took some of the billions they use annually on useless green technology and anti-carbon programs and spent that money on nuclear plants 5 years ago, they would not be in the mess they are in today.)
6) Enact short term tax measures on windfall energy profits – Cut energy bills when gas prices are high. (REALITY: You cannot enact greater taxes on energy producers and cut energy bills simultaneously without government price controls. And, price controls lead to less supply anyway. The more you tax energy producers the more the power bills are going to go up to compensate. There is no way around this.)
7) Speed up replacements of gas boilers and heat pumps. (REALITY: Before winter? Not a chance. This should have been done a couple years ago. Also, it should be noted that the IEA zero-carbon agenda has called for gas boilers to be eliminated by 2025. Rather convenient that the energy crisis is expediting their green energy goals, don't you think?)
8) Accelerate energy efficiency improvements in buildings and industry. (REALITY: Who is going to pay for this?)
9) Encourage a temporary thermostat reduction of 1 °C by consumers. (REALITY: This opens the door to “smart meters” which power companies or governments can control without your consent.)
10) Step up efforts to diversify and decarbonise sources of power system flexibility. (REALITY: More green energy, which has proven time and time again to be a completely ineffective replacement for carbon based fuels.)
The IEA is an institution that is hostile to carbon based energy and industries and calls for the end of all carbon emissions by 2050. This is why none of their bullet points from March that have been attempted have worked; because they aren't designed to work, only promote further carbon controls while harming global power generation in the process.
There are currently no practical replacements for oil, coal and natural gas; none. Especially not in a reasonable time frame that would spare Europeans from a full blown disaster. The only way green technology would be able to provide enough energy for the world's populations would be if the human population was greatly reduced. Europe's energy crisis actually helps the IEA agenda, just as it helps the UN and WEF climate agendas. But what about all the people that will suffer in the meantime?
Expect to see extensive energy rationing this winter in the EU. Around 80% of all EU natural gas is imported and Russia's natural gas exports make up around 40% of Europe's heating and electricity. With Russia now reducing exports down to 20% of their original levels, there is zero chance that the EU will be able to maintain their normal energy usage.
Supply-side shortages will mean a price explosion going into winter as demand increases. Prices have the potential to double (or more) by the beginning of 2023.
European governments will likely prioritize heating for public homes over energy for industry; they will do this to prevent civil unrest, as some government officials are already warning about. There is a chance that EU industry will be hobbled as energy supplies are rerouted for public consumption. We have seen something similar to this in China this year as their drought conditions worsen.
Civil unrest will probably happen anyway. Climate restrictions, green energy rules on carbon emissions and other ludicrous measures are making it impossible for Europeans to adapt to crisis events. Prices will be high, and price caps won't help with supply shortages. When people start to freeze, there will be anger and desperation.
The only legitimate short term solution to prevent a historic energy calamity in the EU this winter would be to remove sanctions on Russia. But, NATO has made it clear that this will not happen. So, the European people are being positioned to face the consequences while being told there will be no consequences. And, when the pain starts to hit, they will be told that it's all for the “greater good.”
As expected the superb geo-strategic analysis of Macgregor I posted yesterday was erased by Google within hours. This is pure censorship a...
