Future generations will decide arbitrarily, but with hindsight, what event was at the origin of the Third World War. But in reality, as in 1913 and in 1938, War preparations are already in full swing.
Right now, the preparations concern:
- A Russian attack on the Ukraine front. (Very likely in early May. Just the intensification of an on-going conflict although Russia will probably break the backbone of Ukraine with the risk of Europe going "mad" literally and over-reacting.)
- A US attack on Iran. (Still unlikely although preparations are ominous. The risks are extraordinary. Iran, unlike Iraq is a large and complex country which cannot be subdued easily. An attack on Iran would be a gamble with no exit in sight.)
- A Chinese attack on Taiwan. (More likely to be a blockade than an actual war at first but then very likely to expand especially now with trade already jeopardized.)
It is said that armies start marching when trade stops. Well, trade is in the process of stopping with a screeching brutality and speed. Armies probably won't be long.
As we have argued many times over the last few years, the coming wars are unavoidable. They are the direct consequence of the economic demise of the Western hemisphere. The "peaceful" transfer of power between the UK and the US in the inter-war period, was an aberration, not the rule. With the coming events we will soon be back to historical patterns although on a scale unheard of and with immense risks.
People will quickly realize that the Covid lock-downs were little more than a dry run to prepare for modern martial law lock-downs, rationing and the other "niceties" of nations at war. This being the only way for people in Western countries to accept the unavoidable restructuring of their financial system.
Enjoy the coming months, they are our last "peaceful" ones. In 2026, the 4th turning will be upon us and people will have already forgotten what the world was like in 2024. The fragmentation of the "multi-polar" world could be extremely violent. Let see... and prepare for those who can.
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