The Birthrate Collapse is a Prisoner's Dilemma (Video - 25mn)

    Here's finally a video which explains the population's decline reasons accurately to my opinion, as to understand the causes of the problem requires looking at it differently. 

   It is happening at the same time all over the world so clearly what's going on must be rooted in deep societal and psychological factors. But what if it goes even beyond that and we actually have to look one level higher at the dynamics of populations?   

   This is what this video explains superbly and in doing so is, I believe, on the right tracks. This would explain why policies to increase the birth rates have no effect whatsoever, the cause being intrinsic to the population curve, there is no exogenous access. Our fate is truly in our stars for once, or more accurately in the dynamics of population statistics.   

   But what's makes the video outstanding is the conclusion: What if instead of interpreting this trend as gloom and doom, we start understanding it in a wider context, as a "normal" and natural adjustment?   

 The Birthrate Collapse is a Prisoner's Dilemma

 

Terrifying Study Reveals Truth About Flying That Could Make You Never Want To Board A Plane Again

    As a pilot myself, I can confirm that the article below is both correct and pure psy-op. Yes, pilots are often tired but how could it be otherwise when you must sometimes spend 10 or more hours in the cockpit? But then again, only during take off and landing do you need to be 100% focused which all pilots are. Outside these two burst of activity, the cockpit tends to be the place in the plane where nothing happens, the flight being in the good hands of the auto-pilot most of the time. Likewise, the pilots are nowadays a team of two (used to be three until 30 years ago) in order to take breaks, rest and lunch which they do whenever necessary. 

   So, no, nothing is disturbing nor should you worry the next time you board a plane. This is by far the safest way to travel these days.  

Terrifying Study Reveals Truth About Flying That Could Make You Never Want To Board A Plane Again

A disturbing new study conducted by the European Cockpit Association (ECA) found that nearly one in four European airline pilots routinely take to the skies despite being too exhausted to safely perform their duties.

76.8% of nearly 7,200 pilots surveyed across 32 European countries admitted to experiencing at least one involuntary episode of sleep, known as a "microsleep," while operating an aircraft in the previous four weeks. Moreover, nearly half admitted flying at least once during the previous three months when they should have declared themselves too fatigued to work.

The study also found that 24.2% of pilots routinely continued flying rather than reporting themselves unfit for duty.

Nearly half of respondents said they feared negative consequences from airline management for reporting fatigue, while fewer than 12% expressed confidence in their employer's fatigue reporting system.

The epidemic is especially bad in Spain, where roughly two in five pilots admitted that they regularly flew while exhausted, while pilots working for airlines based in Ireland and France also reported elevated levels of fatigue-related concerns. Yet, the news wasn't all bad. Pilots working for British airlines reported far fewer problems, with just one in ten admitting they routinely flew while exhausted. Additionally, Finland and the Netherlands also stood out for their stronger approaches to managing pilot fatigue.

ECA President Capt. Tanja Harter told The Guardian that airlines and regulators need to step up rather than leaving pilots to deal with the risks on their own.

Captain Tanja Harter, President of European Cockpit  Association

"This cannot be simply left to us - the pilots - to manage, while we are on the flight deck and expected to bring our passengers safely to their destination," Harter said.

"Waiting for another three years to discover that nothing has changed is simply not an option," she added. "The problems are identified, solutions are there, and we as the European pilot community are ready to contribute. What is needed now is the political will to act.

No wonder he disappeared from Hollywood (Video - 21mn)

   Here's a different post for the weekend:  Hollywood is a cesspool of money and vanities which also manages to be entertaining from time to time or at least did so until recently.

   But out of the cabinet of mediocre and crass populist flicks that Hollywood produced over the years, sometimes came real gems as well as great actors which could truly be inspiring. Jim Carrey through his two best and most profound movies: "The Truman Show" and "Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind" comes out as one of the most profound actor of his generation. Forget the entertainer of "The Mask" or "Dumb and Dumber" on which he built his career, it is in the far more profound social and mind exploration movies mentioned above that he revealed his depth.   

   Here's what the critique wrote: 

   Jim Carrey. He is without a doubt one of the most iconic comedians of our lifetime. Once upon a time, he was a cartoon character in human form. Unlike any other comedian his face stretched beyond human limits and he was able to move like he had no bones. But after his recent appearance we have to question whether his face is even real. Jim Carrey has had a legendary career, from The Mask, to his breakout role in Ace Ventura and Dumb and Dumber and not to forget the Grinch. The reason I am speaking in past tense is because there came a point this all ended, After reaching the top of the mountain, he realized it was all a facade and started playing in more serious movies like The Truman Show and Eternal Sunshine and suddenly Jim Carrey stopped joking. The smiles faded. And over the years he has quietly been planning his exit. Hollywood didn't know what to do with him anymore. Neither did audiences, who kept laughing while he was trying to be taken seriously. Honestly, to this day, it’s still hard to figure this man out. So today, we're unpacking the King of Comedy to show how one man conquered Hollywood and then decided to disappear from the spotlights. 

   What truly makes him unique is that paradoxically for a comedian, in a society gone insane, he kept his sanity and started voicing "truths" which is when Hollywood not surprisingly decided that he wasn't funny anymore and should keep his newly acquired wisdom for himself. Go figure. 

   If you haven't seen both "The Truman Show" and "Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind", you should. These movies provide excellent glimpses behind the curtain, on par with "The Matrix". Ideas which once seen, cannot be unseen like flickering shadows of reality on a cave wall to paraphrase Plato. 

No wonder he disappeared from Hollywood

   By the way, here's the list of the 20 best movies I am aware of in this specific category of "Great Idea Movies" by Chronological order:  

Forbidden Planet    1956    - Dated but exploring the concept of "The power of the Mind".

Mon Oncle (French)     1958    - The clash between the ancient and modern worlds.    

2001: A Space Odyssey     1968    - AI long before it became mainstream.

WEST WORLD     1973    - A Futuristic Amusement Park - We're almost there! 

Blade Runner    1982    - AI and the nature of humanity and morality. 

Pink Floyd - The Wall    1982    - Almost a different category and still this deep movie belongs here. 

1984 (The Movie) 1984    - Not as good as the book which is now somewhat dated.

They Live    1988    - Not a great movie but exploring the great subject of indirect control.

Terminator-2    1991    - Almost there unfortunately. 

The Lawnmower Man    1992    - Early merger of mind and machine.

Groundhog Day    1993    - Another astounding idea. 

The Truman Show    1998    - Must see as discussed above. 

The Matrix    1999    - Quite amazing that such a movie was even made (Forget the Aliens!)

S1mone (Al Pacino)    2001    - 25 years early. This is our reality, now. 

Minority Report    2002     - Is "pre"-crime our future? 

Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind    2004    - Truly amazing and deep movie. 

99 Francs (French)     2007    - Marketing at its very worst. 

Transcendence    2014    - What super-intelligence could look like. 

Ex Machina    2014    - AI + Robot = Human? 

Blade Runner 2049    2017    - A good remake of the 1982 Blockbuster. 

How Japan Finally Made It Impossible to Make Babies (Video - 20mn)

    It is said that demography is destiny since the future of populations is closely correlated to what happens today, and in Japan what's currently taking place in this respect is more than concerning, it is truly suicidal. 

   The clash between the post-war corporate culture and society has reached a breaking point where the younger generations are being served a very bad deck of cards and consequently they have stopped playing and having babies. 

   This is especially true for women who simply cannot juggle a career and family life at the same time and are therefore obliged to jettison the later just to survive economically. The clash between what our society wants, equality and education for women and what women want, men who earn enough to progress socially, means that practically, 70% of men in Japan do not qualify anymore to build a family due to low income and poor long term job prospects. 

   Japan has tried to throw money at the problem but to no avail. What is economically not viable cannot be generated artificially and the birth rate consequently keeps falling. The rest of Asia, especially Korea and China started later but are caching up fast with other developed countries close behind. 

   The most terrible fact is that there is no simple solution to this conundrum. Society, work habits and corporate culture must change but these changes in ordinary times take decades or more unless a major economic shock obliges a complete overhaul of everything. This is what we're heading strait into. The current paradigm cannot last much longer. 

   The illusion that robots will replace people is just that; an illusion. Without younger people, a society completely lose its dynamism and wither into nothingness. This is not a prediction but what's actually happening in Japan in the countryside where villages of shrinking before reverting to nature. Because Japan has built a very stable, homogeneous society, this process is taking place without much social unrest and is managed smoothly by a competent administration which gift like all administrations worldwide is to keep things as they are and change as little as possible. But eventually what cannot last won't.                

   This may look like a secondary roadblock towards our AI-managed, robot-everywhere, bright future but such relentless trends are in the end what shape the future. A top heavy society is not a stable structure. It becomes conservative, unable to adapt and dream its own future which looks more and more like an extension of the past until suddenly shit happens. We are getting dangerously close to such an event.     

How Japan Finally Made It Impossible to Make Babies

France is at war with itself - Yanis Varoufakis & Wolfgang Munchau (Video - 42mn)

   The problems of France are not limited to the country as to some extent most of Europe has been following similar policies. France just did more of it for longer and is now paying the consequences. 

   In absolute terms, 5% interest rate on the OAT is not so high historically, it's just the straw that will break the camel's back. Compounded with social unrest, inflation and lack of investment, the question is: Can it crash the world economy? 

   On it's own, this is unlikely. But if the fire spreads to the rest of Europe as it seems quite possible, if the Middle East conflagration keeps growing and if the AI bubble burst in the US as we are seeing some signs already, then the risk grows exponentially. And this time, unlike 2008, no amount of money will be enough to stop the fire.      

   PS; The discussion is very interesting which is why I posted it but I do not share the ideology of Yanis Varoufakis. (an important detail! :-)  

 France is at war with itself - Yanis Varoufakis & Wolfgang Munchau | The Econoclasts

Why Nobody Lives in America's Most Beautiful Town - Carmel by the Sea (Video - 57mn)

    This is a AI generated video. The kind we usually avoid. But this one is different. It explains clearly how good intended policies can have negative consequences. 

   Over the years, I have seen quite a few such places in the US. Carmel by the Sea, near Monterey Bay in California is the most glaring example but there are many others. Los Alamos with its high density of engineers and scientists also comes to mind. Nice to live in but over regulated so that in the end, what should be a paradise turns out as a bureaucratic hell from which people tend to flee. Although not as fast of course as from real hell holes such as Detroit or Oakland which list is too long to print. Everything is relative.  

 Why Nobody Lives in America's Most Beautiful Town