US Got Rare Earths; What did China Get?

   Who in his right mind would think one second that a Middle East conflict would be confined to the Persian Gulf? 

   The discussion between Xi and trump was ominous in the sense that both leaders may have been trying to grasp the other side intentions. 

   Will China cease the opportunity to attack Taiwan?

   Will the US cut maritime trade to China? 

   We may be about to know the answer to these questions! 

Geopol: US Got Rare Earths; What did China Get?

Important Shift in Beijing's Approach

- proactively setting the course and it really isn't so much about trade as it is about Taiwan

Authored by Mavs for GoldFix, ZH Edit

(Edit of yesterday’s semi-controversial Trump Got the Call He Wanted, But? with additional materials)

Bottom Line:

Trump and Xi's recent 90-minute call marked a clear strategic shift on China’s part. Beyond the platitudes of cooperation and trade, Xi signaled that Taiwan (as opposed to tariffs or tech), is actually China’s core concern. The omission of Taiwan in U.S. statements suggests deliberate ambiguity, while Beijing’s timing—amid Taiwan’s internal instability and changing stances in Japan and South Korea—indicates momentum toward unification.

Talks will continue, but we believe China views rare earths somewhat as leverage, not as concessions. Military cues and cyber allegations add weight. Analysts expecting a big "China deal" misread the situation; structural divergence defines this era. A tactical calm masks deepening strategic confrontation. No easy off-ramp remains.

Recap of the Call:

1. Dialogue & win-win cooperation

· Xi expressed that re-calibrating China‑US relations is like steering a large ship—it requires setting the right course, avoiding disruptions, and making full use of the existing economic and trade consultation mechanisms.

 

· He emphasized that both sides should honor the agreements from the Geneva meeting and seek mutually beneficial results based on equality and respect. He affirmed China’s sincerity and willingness to follow through, noting that “China always keeps its word.”

2. Resuming high‑level trade talks

· Xi welcomed US suggestions to hold economic and trade talks involving lead officials, following the Geneva framework. He described this as a positive step toward resolving trade issues through dialogue and negotiation.

· Trump confirmed that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer will soon meet with their Chinese counterparts.

3. Mutual respect and state visits

· Xi reiterated that China conscientiously implements agreements and called for US recognition of such progress and the removal of “negative measures.”

· Trump voiced “great respect” for Xi, affirmed the importance of US – China relations, pledged continued adherence to the one‑China policy, expressed support for Chinese student exchange, and accepted Xi’s invitation for a reciprocal visit.

4. Taiwan issue caution

· Xi specifically urged the US to handle the Taiwan question prudently, warning against actions by “separatist forces” that could drag both nations into conflict.

Our Take:

The last time these two spoke was in January 2025 before Trump was sworn in office. It was more of a courtesy call than anything else. This time it meant business. Comparing the available information from the White House and Chinese state media, one can easily spot a significant difference – Trump’s tweet did not mention anything about Taiwan. The fact that this call lasted about 90 minutes and the US seemingly intentionally omitted the part about Taiwan marks a significant shift in the US – China relations.

Contrary to the mainstream media’s analysis focused on trade and rare earth materials, we don’t think they are that important [at least not to China] . Yes, this is a very bold statement but few in the West understand how the Chinese perceive and handle their interests. While tariffs, chip bans, Chinese students in America, and the impacts of these disruptions are important, they merely represent a few domains of the holistic Chinese interest and come after the core issues. To the US the core interest is anything pertaining to NATIONAL SECURITY, whilst to China the core of the core is Taiwan.

Geopol: China Threatens Violence While Soft-Selling Taiwan

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This paper explicitly places the protection of the Communist Party’s governing status and the socialist system at the forefront. It emphasizes the need to guard against ideological risks within the overall national security layout. Read full story

Xi’s agreement to take this call at this time suggests that Beijing has decided it is time to take a proactive approach towards Taiwan, moving forward with the goal of unification. In other words, The Politburo had exhausted its patience and after months of observing Trump and the growing chaos in Taiwan, this trade war 2.0 provided a great window of opportunity.

When one attempts to analyze any Chinese approach, it is critically important to not just look at single events but try to connect the dots of all the events centered around the same issue. We had previously covered the constitutional legislative crisis in Taiwan, and frankly at this stage it should be crystal clear for anyone who knows a damn thing about Taiwan that a peaceful solution is no longer possible.

 

Taiwan Special: US Color-War Patterns Emerge

May 9

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Just around the same time last week, Beijing made public the business activities of DPP Puma Shen’s father through a HK newspaper, Ta Kung Pao, together with the Police Department’s wanted list of 20 individuals for their alleged involvement in cyberattacks purportedly orchestrated by a Taiwanese military unit set up with the support of the US.

How do we interpret Xi’s remarks about Taiwan? First and foremost, make no mistake, the conflict in the context implies a direct military conflict. With Lee Jae-myung’s election in South Korea, we expect to see a more neutral and practical government that will alienate itself from a potential China – US showdown while Japan’s Ishiba has already shown a similar approach since he took office. As we discussed last week, the timing and shift in S. Korea and Japan’s stance towards the US can also be deemed encouraging for Beijing to take the driver’s seat and set the course. Secondly, Xi gave Trump a very clear hint that it is up to the US to decide what kind of relationship it wants with China; repeatedly chanting the one-China policy is not going to cut it anymore.