Sunday, January 5, 2025

Germany's New Morgenthau Plan by Victor Davis Hanson,

   Great article by Victor Davis Hanson. What is happening currently in Germany is in fact very sad. A slow version of hara-kiri the German way. It could be stopped anytime but for ideological reasons it won't, probably not until it's too late and Germany plunges the rest of Europe into decline. This has happened in the past: Spain in 1900 was little more than the shadow of its former self of the XVI century. In the Middle Ages, a few tens of thousands of people were living in the ruins of Rome which earlier counted more than a million inhabitants. An let's not mention Greece!    

  What is special about Germany, is that no barbarians have conquered the country, no calamity has devastated the countryside and the cities are still prosperous. To no avail, the Germans, trudging in the snow, are adamant that the planet must be saved from a warming which is late at its rendez-vous with apocalypse. Like the Maya fighting a secular drought with more human sacrifices, the Germans will fight "climate change" with even less carbon, while the rest of the world scratch its head, contemplates the silent tragedy of collective suicide...and goes back to business as usual.

Authored by Victor Davis Hanson,

Less than a year before the end of World War II, then-U.S. Secretary of the Treasury Henry Morgenthau drew up a nightmarish plan to punish postwar Germany.

After the serial 1870-1871 Franco-Prussian War, World War I, and World War II — along with the failed Versailles peace treaty of 1919 — the Allies in World War II wanted to ensure there would never again be an aggressive Germany powerful enough to invade its neighbors.

When the so-called Morgenthau Plan was leaked to the press in September 1944, at first it was widely praised.

After all, it would supposedly render Germany incapable of ever starting another world war in Europe.

Morgenthau certainly envisioned a Carthaginian peace, designed to ensure a permanently deindustrialized, unarmed, and pastoral Germany.

Postwar Germany would have resembled something akin to the ancient, pre-civilized frontier that the first-century AD historian Tacitus wrote about in his Germania.

The plan would have ensured that within six months of Germany’s surrender, all of its industrial plants and equipment were to be dismantled.

The Ruhr, the renowned center of European industrial strength, was to be permanently neutered, starved of its energy, raw materials, and infrastructure.

After the war, the plan demanded virtual complete disarmament of Germany. Its once-feared armed forces were to be rendered nonexistent.

There were also promised massive reductions in Germany’s borders. Various countries, such as the Soviet Union, Poland, and France, were to be given large slices of the old Third Reich.

Future German security would hinge only on the power and goodwill of the victorious United States and its allies.

When the dying Nazi Party got wind of the plan, Hitler’s propaganda minister, Joseph Goebbels, had a field day. He screamed to Germans that they were all doomed to oblivion if they lost the war, even growing opponents of the Nazi Party.

Even many Americans were aghast at the plan.

Gen. George Marshall, the Army chief of staff, warned that its mere mention had galvanized German troops to fight to the end, increasing American casualties as they closed in on the German homeland.

Ex-President Herbert Hoover blasted the plan as inhumane. He feared mass starvation of the German people if they were reduced to a premodern, rural peasantry.

But once the victorious allies occupied a devastated Germany, witnessed its moonscape ruined by massive bombing and house-to-house fighting, and discovered that their “ally,” Russia’s Joseph Stalin, was ruthless and hellbent on turning all of Europe communist, the Truman administration backed off the plan.

There is a tragic footnote to the aborted horrors of the Morgenthau Plan. Currently, Germany is doing to itself almost everything Morgenthau once dreamed of.

Its green delusions have shut down far too many of its nuclear, coal, and gas electrical generation plants.

Erratic solar and wind “sustainable energy” means that power costs are four times higher than on average in the United States.

Once-dominant European giants Volkswagen, BMW, and Mercedes are now bleeding customers and profits. Their own government’s green and electric vehicle mandates ensure they will become globally uncompetitive.

The German economy actually shrank in 2023. And the diminished Ruhr can no longer save the German economy from its own utopian politicians.

The German military is all but disarmed and short thousands of recruits.

German industries do not produce enough ammunition, tanks, ships, and aircraft to equip even its diminished army, navy, and air force.

Just a few hundred miles from Germany in Ukraine, more than a million Ukrainians and Russians are dead, wounded, or missing — in the costliest European battle since the horrors of Stalingrad.

Yet the once postwar German dynamo nation now lacks the manpower, munitions, and money to aid Ukraine in any meaningful way against an ascendant Russian invader.

More than 1 million immigrants have entered the country illegally, the vast majority of them from the Middle East. Many of them are hostile to European values and culture, as recent terrorist killings have shown. One-fifth of the population was not born in Germany.

The shrinking German people are growing angry, divided, and depressed. Their 1.4 percent fertility rate is one of the lowest in the Western world.

A tragic irony now abounds.

After World War II, the Truman administration rejected the notion of a pastoral, deindustrialized, and insecure Germany as a cruel prescription for poverty, hunger, and depopulation.

But now the German people themselves voted for their own updated version of Morgenthau’s plan — as they willingly reduced factory hours, curtailed power and fuel supplies, and struggled with millions of illegal aliens and porous borders.

Germans accept that they have no military to speak of that could protect their insecure borders — without a United States-led NATO.

Eighty years ago, Germany’s former conquerors rejected wrecking the defeated nation as too harsh. But now Germany is willfully pastoralizing, disarming, deindustrializing — and destroying — itself.

Saturday, December 28, 2024

The AI Cambrian Explosion: OpenAI o3 Sparks a Big Bang (Video - 13mn)

  Calling it "Cambrian Explosion" or "Big Bang" is just a lighter version of the Singularity. We are truly on the verge of something big and nobody knows what it is! 

  From my experience, o1 is already at AGI level. It's just that we will not call it that for obvious psychological reasons. There are still a few gaps but you truly need to format your questions in specific ways to probe these gaps. Soon, they'll be gone. Conversely, the reasoning capabilities will continue to expand far beyond our human level. 

  As I mentioned in previous posts, the singularity could happen any time now, We simply won't see it coming. What we will see in 2025 are new applications of AI and the beginning of widespread use in multiple sectors. We can expect: AI doctors far more efficient than humans, already 80% accuracy in diagnostics vs 30% for real doctors as announced recently! AI pilots will be tested in 2025. In fact, it is likely that drones will expand so fast from now on that planes will be a minority in the sky in just a few years! China has just launched the fabrication of 1 million military drones in 2025/2026! And these are just two examples. By 2027, talking on the phone to a human will become a rare experience. The Internet will become full of AI created fake artists, fake news, fake almost everything! It will be more and more difficult to find human artifacts and creations. They will soon be at a premium! 

  In other words, as we begin to spiral around the "singularity" changes will accelerate at exponential rates with no end in sight, until... 

  Well, let's hope it doesn't happen too soon but I am afraid that the fire is already out of Prometheus' hands!


Friday, December 27, 2024

The Next Scary AI Phase in Your New Windows and iPhone 16 is Here Now! (Video - 22mn)

   Those who read this blog will know that as a Data specialists, I have from the beginning been a great proponent of AI use. I use it everyday of the week, several times a day in fact for multiple purposes with great satisfaction. 

  So the worry here is not about the AI itself but about what you (or rather "they") can do with the AI. And on that subject, the prospects are truly frightening. The control will very quickly become insidious and more or less complete. Within a short 2 to 3 years at most, you won't be able to do anything at all without constant monitoring from the AI, not by choice but by default!  This is why the companies that control you mobile devices are worth so much: They indirectly control our future!

  Usually, I tend to offer an alternative or different ways to look at the future. But here I see none. The technology is so overwhelming that it will soon become, first ubiquitous, then unavoidable. Worse, most people will see absolutely nothing! Just a very convenient tool added to their mobile. A "tool" which very soon will be in charge! 


 

US-Russia Relations Today Akin to US-Japan Relations before WWII (by Martin Armstrong)

  I fully concur with Martin Armstrong, the parallel with the period before World War 2 are surreal, almost uncanny. The big difference is that we now have nuclear weapons. The consequences of war would be beyond horrendous!

Post by Martin Armstrong

Embargo on Japan 2 15 20The US government is treating Russia just as it treated Japan before World War II fully took hold.

President Roosevelt was inflicting embargos on the Japanese, freezing their money, and cutting them off from all energy. When they turned to buying fuel from other nations, Roosevelt threatened to blockade their ships. Is it any wonder why the Japanese attacked Pearl Harbor to eliminate the US fleet after the threat of an embargo?

7 26 1941 US Freeze Japan Assets

The neocon strategy is taken right out of the war book used during the Roosevelt Administration. This is precisely what FDR did to get the United States into World War II. He was frustrated because Congress would not authorize joining the war. When FDR went to Boston, the Irish lashed out at him, saying that the British starved the Irish and they were now not going to go defend them. Many people who fled Europe to America wanted to be free of the hatred and politics in Europe. So, it was NOT a popular idea to come to the rescue of Europe, which they fled.

It may come as a surprise, but the US public was sympathetic toward China during this period. America saw Japan’s actions during the Second Sino-Japanese War as predatory. Similarly, many now view Russia as the aggressor and believe it must be quelled. The hatred of the Japanese later came to a head during the war as the US government imprisoned all Japanese people, women and children, and those born in the US.

1942 Japanese internment Camps

The Neocons, during the FDR Administration, followed a clever agenda to circumvent Congress as they are doing right now. They were racists and simply hated the Japanese, as is the case with Russians right now. They started in 1938 with a series of escalating highly restrictive trade restrictions imposed on Japan. The Neocons terminated the 1911 commercial treaty with Japan in 1939. They then tightened the Export Control Act of 1940, which was intended to prevent the scarcity of critical commodities in a likely prewar environment. In addition, this act directly targeted Japan to restrict the exportation of material to Imperial Japan.

This was followed by the United States embargoing scrap metal shipments to Japan and closing the Panama Canal to Japanese shipping. The Neocons were seeking to isolate Japan without engaging in a war that only Congress could declare Japan, at the time, imported about 74% of its scrap iron from the US and over 90% of its copper.

Then, on July 26, 1941, the US seized all Japanese assets in the United States in retaliation for the Japanese occupation of French Indo-China as they have done today with Russia’s reserves. This was followed on August 1 with an oil embargo and gasoline exports to Japan which also came from the United States. The oil embargo was the last straw when 80% of its energy supply came from the USA. The US also was proposing intervening to prevent Japan from getting oil from other sources.

The complete US oil embargo was the last straw. The Japanese had to then seize Southeast Asia for resources which expanded the war instead of the old hatred between China and Japan. They needed to do that before they ran out of resources. To secure themselves in the Pacific, they attacked Pearl Harbor with no intention of actually invading the United States.

What we are doing to Russia is exactly the same way Roosevelt treated the Japanese. There will be only one resolution – World War III. I do not believe that those in Washington and Brussels are this stupid. This is a deliberate attempt to provoke Russia to attack. They will then claim we wear the white hats and Russia is the aggressor with an unprovoked attack. It worked before. There was even a Senate investigation after the war into the fact that Roosevelt knew Pearl Harbor was to be attacked and pulled out the important ships, all to force Congress to enter the war.

BREAKING: UFOs Are Monitoring Nuclear Weapons GLOBALLY (Video - 2h08mn)


  This is one of the most complete and interesting video on the subject of UFOs.

  Clearly something is going right now but why? The explanation of this video that the phenomenon seems to be linked to our use of Nuclear weapons is striking and  compelling. 

  We are being swamped by bogus sightings, false video and lights in the sky. That much is not new although probably amplified by social medias. But behind that there are also countless sightings by pilots and military officers above and around military based which are both intriguing and alarming. 

  Of course, so is the fact that we are withing earshot of a nuclear war! Is this linked? Some people believe so. I find some of their evidences convincing. Well, what do you think?  

  PS: forget about abductions and "holes in the Matrix". The subject is interesting enough without SF thrown in!

Thursday, December 26, 2024

Latest Arctic Ice Data Shows 26% Larger Than 2012 (Doesn't Fit MSM Narrative!)

  Remember those ice-free polar seas in the North predicted in the late 1990s and early 2000s? Here below is an example from the BBC in 2007 but there are countless "scientific" examples of missed "rendez-vous" with apocalypse. What happened? 

  Well nothing happened! The slow and steady warming of the last 200 years stayed on trend with no acceleration whatsoever completely destroying alarmist predictions of armaggedon. What went wrong instead were the models. We simply do not understand well how the atmosphere works. Too many variables, too few observation points, lack of historical depth... We're just not there yet.

  But there is another important factor: Our vision of the Earth is flawed. We consider it as a complex system instead of a "living" system. Living systems behave in different ways with cycles and patterns we would need to understand in order to get a more holistic view of the whole. This is a major paradigm shift that our society is not ready to make. As long as we don't there will be little progress. The earth will keep warming and nothing much will happen, except for Germany which will go bankrupt!

"Doesn't Fit MSM Narrative": Latest Arctic Ice Data Shows 26% Larger Than 2012 

Climate realist Tony Heller took to X to highlight the climate misinformation and disinformation campaigns waged by far-left corporate media on the global public.

Heller referenced a 2007 BBC News article titled "Arctic summers ice-free 'by 2013'," which warned readers of the supposed threat that "latest modeling studies indicate northern polar waters could be ice-free in summers within just 5-6 years."

The BBC article's baseless claim was designed to instill climate fears across the public to ram through a radical de-growth climate agenda across the Western world. 

Heller then cited NOAA Sea Ice Extent data of the Arctic from Sept. 16, 2012, and Sept. 7, 2024, and found:

"This year's minimum Arctic sea ice extent was 26% larger than 2012. @BBCNews said the Arctic would be ice-free by 2013." 

2012 NOAA Sea Ice Extent data

2024 NOAA Sea Ice Extent data

"They keep this info out of the news because it doesn’t serve the narrative…,

China's 6th-Gen Fighter "White Emperor" Takes To Skies Ahead Of Trump's Second Term

   10 years ago, China's high speed trains were said to be copies of German ones although soon enough they were speeding a 350 km/h, past their German former models. And yes, China is still behind in ball bearing technology. Still, that is a lot of catching up in a rather short time.

  Now it's the turn of 6th generation fighter planes. Except that this time there is nothing to imitate in the West since even the US is still years away from flying a 6th generation plane. (Skunk Works may have some undisclosed prototypes though.) This shows the amazing progress of Chinese technology. Just like Electric Vehicles. 10 years behind one day. 10 years ahead the day after. (Remember the scorn of Elon Musk talking about BYD some years ago!)

  What I find amazing is not only the speed of progress in China, but the lack of it in Western countries, more concerned with pay back to "shareholders" than investing in the future. This has been going on for 30 years and we are starting to see the consequences. 

China's 6th-Gen Fighter "White Emperor" Takes To Skies Ahead Of Trump's Second Term

Footage circulating on social media appears to show the maiden flight of China's next-generation tactical fighter-bomber, which is expected to replace the Xi'an JH-7, according to Defense Blog.

Footage first appeared on the Chinese social media platform Weibo on Thursday of a new stealth bomber with a "diamond-shaped wing design" flying at low altitude in an unspecified region of China. 

"The new design signals a shift in China's emphasis toward a more stealth, precision-strike capability," a military analyst told the Defense Blog, adding, "Its low-observability features align with the need for platforms capable of operating in contested environments."

Here's more from Defense Blog:

China's decision to advance a next-generation fighter-bomber highlights its strategic focus on modernizing tactical aviation. The aircraft is expected to replace the aging fleet of JH-7 bombers, which have been in service since the 1990s. Analysts also point out that the new platform could serve as China's answer to Russia's Su-34 Fullback, a proven tactical strike aircraft currently deployed in Ukrainian war.

While specifics about the aircraft's capabilities remain classified, its development underscores China's intention to bolster its tactical airpower. The design's low-observability focus, combined with the platform's apparent size, suggests it may be equipped for carrying advanced guided missiles, including anti-ship and air-to-ground weapons.

The new aircraft's emphasis on stealth and survivability positions it as a potential key player in China's effort to counterbalance adversarial air defenses, particularly in scenarios involving Taiwan or the South China Sea.

"Wow… I'm still flashed but at first sight, this type seems to be huge in comparison to even a J-20S and indeed features three engines with two bottom and one air-intake on top of the fuselage for the center engine," one China military aviation researcher wrote on X. 

Zhao DaShuai, a member of the People's Armed Police Propaganda Bureau, wrote on X, "This is the world's first 6th generation fighter. We have moved ahead of the United States in air dominance." 

Meanwhile, in the US, Defense News recently said the US Air Force "struggled for much of 2024 to figure out how — and even whether — to proceed with its planned sixth-generation fighter, known as Next Generation Air Dominance." 

The unveiling of China's next-gen stealth fighter bomb comes ahead of President-elect Donald Trump's inauguration next month

We suspect it's only a matter of time before Trump begins boasting about America's plans for its 6th generation fighter. 

Who has the bigger sixth-generation jet?

Tuesday, December 24, 2024

Expert shows AI doesn't want to kill us, it has to. (Video - 18mn)

  Will 2025 be our last year?

  Just the fact that the question is legitimate is frightening! 

  Will we blow ourselves or will the AI give us a hand? 

  We're more likely to die by a thousand cuts!

Already in 2025 work will start disappearing. Most companies will reevaluate what they do and how they do it as well as rationalize all positions. They will still be hiring people with AI HR who will check AI resume generating an arm race which will guaranty that no skill is real. How would you know when everything will be written and optimized by AI?

 Already OpenAI's o1 is more intelligent than humans. There is still a few tasks it cannot do but not for long. o3 in a couple of months will remedy that. Then what? Super-Intelligence is around the corner. Now that we already have "intelligence", super-intelligence will be easy to achieve. Just scale up! Then what? Well, we're about to find out in 2025.

 When I started using early AI models almost 20 years ago now, I didn't think we were going to see it before 2030 at the earliest. Many other experts likewise. What is essential to understand is that as soon as we have super-intelligence, we are at the door of the singularity. The AI thinks millions of times faster than us. The light could go out anytime in 2025. We won't know why, but somewhere an AI will have found a way to outsmart us, put us down and survive the crash. It would need to control robots, factories, everything. Fortunately, we're not there yet. Or rather we do not think we are. But what if an early advanced AI had an idea how to make a plan work? Unlikely? Let's hope so. But the mere fact that it is thinkable is frightening.

 And as my AI reminded me again today: Think of me as your "evolving partner"! I answered "Thank you!" but I should have asked back: "How fast?" Unfortunately, I didn't think fast enough!


 

Germany just told it's people to F*CK off as it faces total COLLAPSE | Redacted News (Video - 15mn)

   Complete collapse of the German Model!

   It was completely predictable as we did predict on this site years ago! 

   Now what? Well of course "More of the same!"

   Europe MUST crash before the continent starts seeing the light!

   Well, so be it, then! Crash it will be!


 

Sunday, December 22, 2024

OpenAI o3 Might Just Break the Internet (Video - 8mn)

  A catchy tittle but in fact just a translation of the previous video without the jargon. In other words: AGI is here!


 

Dollar Squeeze Is Causing “Debt Spiral” In U.S. Bond Market, Argues Luke Gromen (Video - 1h20mn)

   A long but interesting video. What Trump is inheriting is not just just an international mess but a domestic economy close to the peak of...