The Thucydides Trap the US fell into

  - First the definition: 

The Thucydides Trap is a concept that describes the tendency for conflict to arise when a rising power threatens to displace an established power. This idea is rooted in historical patterns of rivalry and war.

Historical Context

Origin of the Term

• The term was first used by novelist Herman Wouk in a lecture in 1980, where he compared the Cold War dynamics between the U.S. and the Soviet Union to the rivalry between Athens and Sparta after their victory over Persia.
• Political scientist Graham Allison revived the term around 2011, applying it to modern geopolitical tensions, particularly between the United States and China.

Historical Examples

• The concept is based on Thucydides' observation from his work, History of the Peloponnesian War, which noted that the rise of Athens instilled fear in Sparta, making war inevitable.
• Allison's research indicated that out of 16 historical cases of a rising power challenging a ruling power, 12 resulted in war.

Implications of the Thucydides Trap

Current Relevance

• The Thucydides Trap is often discussed in the context of U.S.-China relations, where China's growing influence is perceived as a threat to U.S. dominance.

Potential Outcomes

• The concept suggests that without careful management of rising tensions, nations may inadvertently escalate conflicts, leading to military confrontations.

The Thucydides Trap serves as a cautionary framework for analyzing power transitions and the potential for conflict in international relations.

Wikipedia

   - What it means for the US: 

   Read carefully the History of the Peloponnesian War and the story becomes strangely reminiscent to what is going on currently. 

   As Athens' fear that its supremacy was being questioned grew, the city became paranoid and more imperialistic menacing both its friends and neutral states which ended up with the destruction of the neutral city of Mitylene on the island of Lesbos, convincing other Greek cities that Athens was the menace, ending with a stronger coalition against Athens and the victory of Sparta.  

   Now back to the modern world: China is menacing the current US dominated order by (for the time being) doing absolutely nothing militarily and focusing conversely on expending its commercial reach. This is both intelligent and very much in line with Sun Tzu's "Art of War" which in this case can be resumed by: Lets your enemy exhaust itself.   

   The US reading the writing on the wall, is now applying the disjointed strategy of the Neo-cons, menacing left and right and in doing so gulping more than it can swallow. Venezuela in January was the opening salvo of "Might makes Right!". Then came the misguided attack on Iran which failed miserably. And now the tentative peace agreement with Russia, while aiding Ukraine put "maximum pressure" to get time to focus on Iran while preparing the next move on China. 

   All this while the US is also supporting the no-holds barrel war of Israel against its Arab neighbors as well as a commercial war against anyone remotely supporting Russia. If this isn't overkill, what is?     

   As for Athens 2,500 years ago, the result of this absurd strategy is to cement the coalition of Iran, Russia and China, radicalize the "neutral" Arab states and even antagonize pro-US countries like India (we should call it Bharat now), Indonesia and Malaysia. 

   The result is that the BRICS dollar avoidance system keeps growing in the background while the slow drift away from US bonds accelerates just when the US needs to issue more debt than ever. This is an extraordinarily unstable combination which will have to be resolved one way or the other. 

   And then of course we have the elections in the US in November which will add pressure on Trump. The pressure cooker is set although for a dominant power like the US, it looks very much like, you guessed it: A Thucydides Trap, resulting in more and more disjointed and seemingly absurd aggressive moves, including war? We will know soon enough.