Tuesday, June 25, 2024

South Korea is dying (but it has a plan, a new Capital in Sejong) (Video - 18mn)

   On the current trajectory of record low birth rates (0.72), Koreans will disappear with just 3 generations! Living in Japan which is about 20 years ahead of Korea, I know the reason. These countries have created extremely competitive environments which are extremely inimical to family life. Space is at a premium, children are an unaffordable luxury and people in general are overly stressed. 

  With increased competition between countries and dwindling natural resources, it is very unlikely to get better anytime soon. The chance is that it's going to get much worse very soon. AI and robotics can mitigate the shock but only to some extent. Eventually living standards with go down and families will have fewer children. This is what we have seen in Japan. There is no reason that it should be any different in other countries. By spending a lot on families, Japan has succeeded to reduce the speed of the fall but not to reverse it. It is to my opinion almost impossible. Once families start "enjoying" the relative luxury of having no kids and it becomes "normal", that is, the social pressure goes down, there is no turning back. And that's in the cities. Now try to imagine the birth rate of a village where everyone is above 70 years old as is often the case in Japan!

  PS: Sejong proves nothing at all! Younger families have moves to the city and should therefore have more children than average. Sure enough! 0.9 instead of 0.7. This is simply insignificant and will solve nothing. 


 

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