It's been brewing for quite some time now but the war with Lebanon is getting closer by the day.
The long monologue about tactical nuclear weapons is probably not on the agenda yet but tensions are clearly rising fast as Ukraine as facing the wall.
My personal take is that tensions will keep rising during the Summer to reach a climax in September. Consequently, the US elections in November will be under extreme pressure and may or may not take place.
Question: Can the market avoid a crash before then? Can the West prevent a Ukraine defeat in the next 6 months? Can a spill over of the coming war in Lebanon be avoided? Each of these events in isolation might be manageable but of course when the dam breaks everything tends to break in unison. We are without doubt entering a true 4th turning event. Let's hope for the best and prepare for the worst.
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