My Energy Is Your Problem - The Birth Of A New Europe

  "In a hyper-financialized world", everything seems not to matter until suddenly it does! Japan is now learning the lesson with the painfully crashing Yen. Europe will be next with its unrealistic woke energy policies. As each country is slowly painting itself into a corner, eventually war will look more and more like an acceptable option as I predicted almost two years ago.

 Anyway, by then democracy will be little but a vague afterthought so there won't be much left to defend. The Covid crisis and it's intolerance of dissent was the appetizer. Just as being pro-Putin will now get you punished in some European countries, being anti-whatever the government's decree of the day is, won't, can't be tolerated much longer. If you are not missing yet the good old days of 2019, you soon will!

Authored by Tom Luongo via Gold, Goats, 'n Guns blog,

“Energy makes energy anyhow

So spend yourself and get rich right now”

- Marillion “Rich”

This day has been a long time coming. From the moment, more than a decade ago, when it was finally admitted that Europe was destined to be an energy importer, we were going to see the climax of the showdown between the West and Russia.

Europe as energy importer always meant that time was on Russia’s side. All it had to do was draw the conflict out long enough, survive long enough, to force Europe into submission. Russia has the energy Europe needs, no one else can supply it, therefore the final decision will be to accept this fate.

No amount of financial wizardry, pathetic virtue signaling about Climate Change, malinvestment into inefficient and unsustainable ‘renewables,’ or military threats would ultimately change the outcome of this story.

Output off the North Slope has fallen off and Groningen’s gas fields are drying up faster than Hillary’s va-jay-jay with each twist of John Durham’s investigation into RussiaGate.

Every gambit to secure energy from Ukraine (Donbass coal, gas fields in the Sea of Azov) and the Middle East (Syria, EastMed Pipeline, Iran) have also failed.

This is the basic problem the EU faces in its quest for political hegemony.

How does it get around this basic fact without fomenting 1) a political crisis at home and 2) a war with Russia and the rest of the Global South who support her, it cannot win?

Force Majeure

Since the start of the war in Ukraine, a conflict created by EU complicity in NATO’s long-standing war on Russia, the EU has tried to play the victim of US/UK aggressiveness while happily going along with it for their own purposes.

That purpose is to advance their agenda of erecting a total surveillance state under the guise of a radical response to Climate Change. Their problem is they have no viable replacement for Russian energy, be it oil, coal or gas, that is capable of sustaining them in the interim.

All of their refusals were met with Russian intransigence. After gleefully going along with the theft of Russian foreign exchange reserves, as well as forcing the abandonment of Russian state assets like seizing Gazprom’s subsidiary in Germany, Europe still tried to say Russia had no legal right change the terms of payment for Russian energy.

It was hilarious to watch as EU sycophants tried to argue Russia had no legal right to claim to force majeure after the EU prohibited Gazprom from spending the euros they would be paid for its gas.

The Russian government responded with a demand for payment for all exports to legally-defined ‘unfriendly countries’ in either gold or Russian rubles. And the howls were heard all around the world.

Even though acts of war, including sanctions, are a typical clause in all Gazprom supply contracts:

So, after a couple of weeks of denying reality, of playing to the moral high ground about punishing Vladimir Putin the butcher of Bucha, the EU as always caved to reality.

Ruble Roulette

The EU finally figured out a way to avoid US sanctions to buy Russian energy in rubles.

Moscow has warned Europe it risks having gas supplies cut unless it pays in roubles. In March it issued a decree proposing that energy buyers open accounts at Gazprombank to make payments in euros or dollars, which would then be converted to rubles.

The Commission said earlier this month that the decree risked breaching EU sanctions since it would put the effective completion of the purchase – once the payments are converted to rubles – into the hands of the Russian authorities.

In an advisory document sent to member states on Thursday, however, the Commission said Moscow’s proposal does not necessarily prevent a payment process that would comply with EU sanctions against Russia over the Ukraine conflict.

This is their way out. As always, the EU will just define things however they need to in order to save face, while ultimately capitulating when forced to show their hole cards.

We watched this same pathetic display for more than three years over Brexit. And if not for a complicit, nee treasonous performance by Former Prime Minister Theresa May, Brexit negotiations would have been finalized in around six months.

All she had to do was set terms and walk away from these people. All she had to do was what Putin just did.

This isn’t to say Putin’s handling of this growing crisis has been perfect. His biggest fault as Russia’s leader has been his continued underestimating the duplicity and sheer evil emanating from the European Commission.

However, I also feel Putin knew that Russia’s best strategy was to be the best neighbor it could be despite the obvious provocations. It cost him politically for years. This is why he tried so hard for so long to find common ground with these folks, attempting where he could to make allies and create political leverage.

This is why Putin has refused to shut off the gas to the EU, even while they dragged their feet on paying in rubles. He always knew where this would end up, and if you asked the Eurocrats in Brussels quietly, so did they.

The political costs to Brussels for turning off the gas would be too high a price for them to pay.

This issue has caused fracturing in German’s fragile ruling coalition. It has harmed France’s Emmanuel Macron’s re-election chances in France. It will cost Mario Draghi his government next year. Of course, by then Draghi’s destruction of Italy as a country will be nearly complete. One can only hope the Italians find their voice between now and then.

Hungry, Hungary Hypocrites

Putin’s most obvious victory was in Hungary, where Viktor Orban just won a major election. Orban has already leveraged that victory into frustrating the EU’s plans to sever energy ties with Russia and steadfastly refusing to up the military pressure on Russia, which I talked about on the eve of the election.

For this reason Hungary will be in the EU’s crosshairs going forward. It will be marginalized, if not kicked out eventually, over these issues. There are ideologues at the helm in Brussels and they will not be stopped in their quest to bring Europe to its knees under their control.

If Hungary say no to this, they will be punished for it. But punishing Hungary at this point is like trying to punish Russia. It’s actually a blessing for them.

For Hungary, once it is freed from the EU, will be the destination for foreign capital in a way that it is cannot be today. These are Orban’s hole cards, and they are powerful ones. In the meantime, he will stay in the EU to be a thorn in their side until they get rid of him.

The biggest embarrassment for Brussels would be for Hungary to thrive outside of the EU framework, the same fear that was on the table during Brexit negotiations. The difference, of course, is that the UK political establishment is all in on the Brussels agenda, it’s the people outside of London who aren’t.

Hungarians just proved that Orban doesn’t have that problem.

So, the benefits of ending its future relationship with the EU will be much more immediately apparent, when it happens.

European Unionicide

No matter what happens in the long run, however, the reality is that a new Europe is on the horizon. And it isn’t a pretty sight. The EU will, at best, muddle through without a couple of current pieces — Hungary, Bulgaria and Romania — and at worst break back apart as the common currency experiment reaches an ignominious end broken on the shores of a new energy-based reserve standard which it simply cannot compete against.

Just like Ukraine is quickly being carved up by Russia into a smaller pieces, so too will Europe balkanize over the EU’s failures to secure a reliable energy future for its people.

Russia’s demands that Europe pay for Russian exports through the unsanctioned Gazprombank, who will process the currency conversion (at the importer’s expense) into rubles, now give it the upper hand in all future trade dealings with the EU.

And since the ruble is now loosely tied to physical gold this means the possibility of the euro ever challenging the US dollar as a reserve currency is now officially over. That fate was sealed with Draghi’s move to negative interest rates back in 2014, turning it into the ultimate carry currency.

That status is quickly unwinding to the detriment of the Japanese Yen which is now grabbing the headlines caught in the middle between the war between the Fed and the ECB.

At the same time, the Eurodollar system has come under existential threat thanks to the coming end of LIBOR blunting the desires of a hawkish Fed. Because of this, the ECB is trapped in a maze where the exits have all been blocked off.

There is no reason now for anyone to hold euros or convert euros into European sovereign debt. The Russians are no longer going to support the eurodollar market by recycling its trade surplus into the European banking system, exactly as was predicted when the EU followed the US by seizing Russia’s foreign exchange reserves.

Who in their right mind would hold euros on your balance sheet beyond what you need to pay for goods is a losing proposition if Ursula Von der Leyen has deemed you an Untermensch?

Gazprombank will simply flip those euros into physical gold and add them to the country’s balance sheet, making it even stronger. This will ensure that the euro itself becomes a pariah currency and force the ECB to continue the path towards hyperinflation.

The birth of a new Europe is one where the currency risk is now all on the importer of commodities, not the exporter of commodities. I’ve been saying for years that Europe always thought that its huge share of Russian energy exports would give it monopsony power over Russia. That, they thought, without Europe as a buyer, Russia would be at their mercy.

In a hyper-financialized world, that assumption had always held true. But, in a new monetary regime, where the world is beyond debt saturation, the bills are due and there’s no more road to kick the can down, it simply isn’t true anymore.

By Russia tying the ruble to gold and both the US and EU weaponizing offshore dollar markets, that misperception of buying power is being laid bare. Sure, the EU has euros to offer but it does so into the revaluation of commodities versus fiat currencies which have ever-shrinking use cases.

This only feeds the downward spiral of the euro and the eurodollar system into the vortex that is physical gold and the demand for commodities on which all of its value is derived.

The mouse in Hungary has roared loud enough to finally get the apparatchiks in Brussels to listen to the tune the Russian bear has been quietly humming to itself for years.

Communist China Has Thrown Out The Old Rules of War

 Too late? What lessons are the Chinese supposed the learn from 200 years of American imperialism? Do what I say, not what I do? 

 As I mentioned earlier, the Russians and the Chinese are going for the jugular, crashing the US petro-dollar, whence the extreme reaction from the West. We are still in the early days, but the third world war is on, even if we still have the "light" version for now. 

 The Chinese communist system shares none of our values. Values which, we, ourselves respect less and less. 

 2019 was the top of the curve for almost everything. It's all down from now on. More population, less resources, less productivity (because of the lack of energy), less income and prosperity. It is unavoidable. Inflation and trumped up statistics will paper over the downfall for a while, but not much longer.

 So even though they may not be quite ready yet, the Chinese must have decided that this was the right time to challenge the West. And yes indeed, once you understand this, everything, absolutely everything must be read with this in mind...

Authored by Robert Spalding via RealClear Books & Culture,

When I first read the Chinese war manual “Unrestricted Warfare” in 1999, I thought it was wacky. I was flying B-2 Stealth bombers out of Whiteman Air Force Base in western Missouri and reading a lot about war. As an Air Force officer, I thought it was part of my day job to understand the bigger picture – even though the prevailing attitude in the military was “Just fly the planes.” “Unrestricted Warfare” was one of those books that caused a stir among some military folks because it had recently been translated into English. It had that insider whiff of mystery and secrets, a peek into the mind of the Chinese Communist Party.

(AP Photo/Pavel Golovkin, Pool)

Despite that mystique, not a lot of people were finishing the book. For one thing, regardless of its title, no one thought we were ever going to be fighting a war with China, so it seemed like a lot of work for very little payoff. For another, the book itself is not a light read. It is a dense compendium of strategy, economics, social theory, and futuristic thoughts about technology. It imparts centuries of military history, particularly as it relates to the United States, but I already knew a lot of that. It seemed vague and also a little sci-fi, not relevant to a U.S. bomber pilot – even one with a fascination for military history. My mistake.

If you look closely at everything China has done since 1999 – at all aspects of its economic, military, diplomatic, and technological relations with the rest of the world – it’s like watching “Unrestricted Warfare” come to life. One can find other glimpses into the secretive mentality of the CCP leaders, but this one is the single most important book for understanding the China of today. “Unrestricted Warfare” is the main blueprint for China’s efforts to unseat America as the world’s economic, political, and ideological leader. It shows exactly how a totalitarian nation set out to dominate the West through a comprehensive, long-term strategy that includes everything from corporate sabotage to cyberwarfare to dishonest diplomacy; from violations of international trade law and intellectual property law to calculated abuses of the global financial system. As one of the authors stated, “The only rule in ‘Unrestricted Warfare’ is that there are no rules.”

The book is the key to decoding China’s master plan for world domination, which has been progressing more steadily and successfully than most Americans realize – even accelerating in the reign of Xi Jinping. The manipulation of COVID policies, stonewalling the world about its origins, and mounting a massive disinformation campaign to blame the United States are merely recent examples.

So why is “Unrestricted Warfare” so obscure, even to people who study China professionally on behalf of the U.S. government, the Fortune 500, the investment world, the nonprofit world, academia, or the military? It’s not as if the book is some secret document that has never escaped the inner sanctum of the Chinese Communist Party. Just the opposite: The original translation by the U.S. government is in the public domain; you can google it and click on an English translation, for free, in less than a second.

The problem is that “Unrestricted Warfare” is hard to read. While any American can access it, few can understand it. The prose is dense and confusing, even in the original Mandarin, and even more so in that crude, free translation you’ll find on the web. Its insights are clouded by endless repetitions and meandering discursions into military history, cultural theory, and attacks on U.S. policy. The colonels, Qiao Liang and Wang Xiangsui, get tangled in semantics and draw on faulty citations and unsourced references. They obsess about the Persian Gulf War of 1990-91 to an extent that puzzles Americans who consider that war to be a minor footnote to history. And the authors’ metaphors are so weird to our ears as to seem utterly baffling. Just consider two chapter titles: “The War God’s Face Has Become Indistinct” and “What Do Americans Gain by Touching the Elephant?” Huh?

I mentioned “Unrestricted Warfare” several times in my previous book, “Stealth War: How China Took Over While America’s Elite Slept.” I noted that the book was well known to modern-day China scholars but that perhaps because of its strange complexity, Western strategists had failed to connect its strategic vision with the seemingly random actions of China’s misleadingly benign and smiling countenance. Although some of the text is pretty clear: “Using all means, including armed force or non-armed force, military and non-military, and lethal and non-lethal means to compel the enemy to accept one’s interest.”

As I wrote at the time, that strategy can justify meddling in all manner of another country’s affairs: silencing ideas or promoting political discord, stealing technology, dumping products to disrupt markets. I was intrigued with the idea of creating an “army” of academics who could be used to gather medical, technological, and engineering information. The list of incursions goes on – and has grown since then.

Consider just a small number of the things the Chinese Communists have done:

• Seized on COVID as a weapon to be used to their benefit, not a humanitarian crisis to be solved.
  
• Viewed the climate change issue as a bargaining chip to win them economic concessions from global elites in return for reforms that they never intend to make.
  
• Sponsored corporate espionage on a scale beyond what the United States acknowledges.
  
• Launched unrelenting cyberattacks against Western companies and governments.
  
• Fueled America’s deadly fentanyl drug crisis by allowing illegal smuggling of banned substances.
  
• Used slave labor to produce goods such as clothing for sale to Western shoppers.

Despite all of these actions by the CCP, since publication of “Stealth War,” I’ve encountered skepticism from some readers who simply can’t believe that China has been methodically undermining the rest of the world with a patient, long-term, multidisciplinary strategy. Some even dismissed “Stealth War” as the work of an alarmist.

In the wake of that reaction, I realized how useful it would be to make the Chinese manual of war accessible to American readers so that they can see it for themselves. I set out to write a user-friendly guide that would explain “Unrestricted Warfare” chapter by chapter, adding examples while editing out the irrelevant and distracting parts of the original text. In the process I’ve drawn on history, military strategy, and Chinese culture to explain the context in which “Unrestricted Warfare” was written and then applied. My goal is to show how “Unrestricted Warfare’s” advice to the leadership of the CCP maps with terrifying consistency onto the events of the past two decades.

This book has opened my eyes to how the CCP has essentially sneak attacked us in slow motion. And made me think hard about where they are going next. I hope it can have the same effect on others. I want to share with the men and women in our government, my respected former colleagues, who have to make some important – maybe life and death – decisions about how we deal with the Chinese government in the very near future.

I know it can seem excessive to compare any country with Nazi Germany. But as we rethink our views on China, what other comparison is appropriate for a regime that casually and cold-bloodedly allowed COVID-19 to spread to the rest of the world at the same time it was forcing its Muslim citizens into concentration camps? Hong Kong parallels the takeover of Austria in 1938. And how do you account for the increasingly warlike rhetoric and military movements directed at Taiwan?

Imagine the reaction during World War II if an American company had tried to export its goods to imperial Japan, or if a Wall Street firm had tried to underwrite the bonds of a Nazi arms manufacturer. Unthinkable, right? And yet today countless Americans are still trying to do business with and in China, misunderstanding or ignoring the CCP’s war without rules.

I am deeply concerned that the Biden administration, despite some positive moves, is seriously underestimating the malevolence and power of the Chinese threat. Our adversaries wrote up their long-term plans in 1999 and have been executing them relentlessly ever since. Our leaders have a moral obligation to understand what’s happening, sound the alarm, wake up the country, and inspire Americans of all political stripes to do everything in their power to stop this totalitarian regime.

I also want the average American to have access to this book. It’s time for every influential person in America – policy makers, diplomats, business executives, investors, journalists, scientists, academics, and more – to become part of the resistance to the Chinese Communist Party.

My hope is that by explaining “Unrestricted Warfare” and its consequences, this book will make it impossible for my fellow Americans to continue to deny the reality of our existential conflict with China. The simple, chilling truth is that the CCP is doing everything in its power – mostly via economics, technology, diplomacy, and the media, not yet via military power – to destroy our way of life. To understand that plan, you need to understand “Unrestricted Warfare.” The stakes couldn’t be higher.

*  *  *

Robert Spalding retired from the U.S. Air Force as a brigadier general after more than 25 years of service. He is the CEO of SEMPRE and the author of “War Without Rules: China's Playbook for Global Domination” (Sentinel, 2022).

To Fight Russia, Europe's Regimes Risk Impoverishment & Recession

 Or when ideology trump realism. The absurdity of the renewable fanaticism may soon be plain to contemplate for ignorant and soon to be much poorer Europeans. To cut oil and gas from Russia without securing supply first is akin to jumping from a tower and hoping to grow wings before you reach the ground! It is absurd. Europe is headed to totalitarianism or revolution. Maybe both. But misery first!

Authored by Ryan McMaken via The Mises Institute,

European politicians are eager to be seen as “doing something” to oppose the Russian regime following Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine.

Most European regimes have wisely concluded—Polish and Baltic recklessness notwithstanding—that provoking a military conflict with nuclear-armed Russia is not a good idea. So, “doing something” consists primarily of trying to punish Moscow by cutting Europeans off from much-needed Russian oil and gas.

The problem is this tactic doesn’t do much to deter Russia in anything other than the short term because Russian oil can turn to numerous markets outside of Europe. Most of the world, after all, has declined to participate in the US and European embargoes and trade sanctions, opting for more measured approaches instead.

By limiting energy sources for Europeans, however, Europe’s regimes are likely to succeed in pushing up the cost of living for Europeans while doing little to cut off Russia’s economy from global markets.

Can Europe Totally Cut Itself Off?

For understandable reasons, most European regimes have been reluctant to completely cut themselves off from Russian oil and gas. This is because Europe has become increasingly dependent on Russian natural gas as Europe’s regimes have increasingly committed themselves to unreliable “renewable” energy sources. This is especially the case in Germany—Europe’s largest economy—which faces a “sharp recession” if it cuts off Russian gas. There has been much talk of heavy sanctions against Russia, but this has stopped short of a full-on ban on Russian oil and gas imports.

Nonetheless, the European Parliament last week began drafting a plan for a full embargo of Russian oil and gas.

Yet, even as pressure mounts for Europe’s regimes to be seen as doing more to stymie Moscow, European politicians want to proceed slowly. This, however, only gives Moscow more time to adjust logistics to transfer oil exports to other parts of the world.

If Europe were to fully ban oil immediately, this would send oil prices soaring for Europe and others. According to analysts at JP Morgan:

A full and immediate embargo would displace 4 million barrels per day of Russian oil, sending Brent crude to $185 a barrel as such a ban would leave "neither room nor time to re-route [supplies] to China, India, or other potential substitute buyers," the investment bank said in a note. That would mark a 63% surge from Brent's close of $113.16 on Monday.

This could trigger recessions across Europe’s economies, and policymakers know it. Hungary, for instance, has repeatedly opposed an embargo on Russian oil, out of concerns for ordinary Hungarians who already have a standard of living well below wealthier countries like Germany and France. Meanwhile, French policymakers have conveniently timed an embargo to occur after French elections this year.

Even beyond the short term, oil woes for Europe would not necessarily end because OPEC has already stated that it cannot pump enough oil to replace Russian oil.

In any case, Europe does not appear to be succeeding at convincing OPEC to do much to punish or isolate Russia in oil markets. The Saudi regime has only announced increased cooperation with Russia in recent months, and the Ukraine War does not appear to be an important topic for OPEC.

This isn’t to say that none of this will hurt Moscow at all. Time will be necessary to modify Russian oil markets to serve other consumers outside Europe, and this will mean declining revenues, at least in the short term. Moreover, US financial sanctions make it more difficult for Russian merchants to do business globally.

In spite of the West’s claim that it’s fighting some kind of war for democracy against authoritarianism, though, it looks like the biggest beneficiaries of growing European embargoes on Russian oil at some of the world’s most authoritarian regimes. Beijing will happily accept oil and gas supplies no longer sold in the West, and possibly at a discount as potential markets for Russian oil shrink in number. Moreover, if oil prices are driven up by dislocations caused by European embargoes, this is likely to benefit at least some of the oil-fueled dictators among OPEC’s members.

Meanwhile, ordinary Europeans are likely to find themselves paying much more for energy—and consequently for other goods and services as well. Recession risk is also growing in Europe.

The United States to the Rescue?

As is so often the case, Europe has looked to the United States to bail it out yet again. Biden Administration has stated that it can send US liquefied natural gas (LNG) to Europe to largely replace Russia in meeting Europe’s energy needs. But, it’s not that simple. As David Blackmon has noted at Forbes:

While committing the US to help Germany and other European nations wean themselves off of Russian natural gas seems to be a noble goal, there is just one problem: The President apparently didn’t talk the US LNG industry about it before he made the agreement. Reading the quotes from executives at Tellurian in the New York Times article linked here, it is apparent that they were caught off-guard by the President's announcement. “I have no idea how they are going to do this…”

In the Age of Covid, federal politicians have no doubt become accustomed to conjuring whatever they want through the “miracle” of printing money. But in the real world, it’s still necessary to produce oil and gas (and other commodities) through actual physical production. Also complicating matters is the fact oil and gas industries in the United States are still largely in private hands. This means Biden can promise whatever he wants, but the private sector will still have to do the work, and market incentives may not necessarily favor selling everything to Europe.

Not even money printing can make oil and gas magically appear on the other side of the Atlantic.

Ultimately, the frenzy of sanctions and embargoes pursued by “the West” may do little more than raise the cost of living for its own residents. Even worse are the side effects of these sanctions for poorer countries in Africa and Asia which are need Russian grain and Russian oil in many cases to keep those countries residents living above subsistence levels.

These policies will make life more difficult to ordinary innocent people worldwide while failing to actually end the war in Ukraine. But that’s a price wealthy men like Biden and Macron are apparently willing to pay.

The Twitter Poison Pill Gets The Margin Call Treatment

 This is a superb parody of the movie "Margin Call" applied to Twitter and published on "Twitter". Indeed, watch the 10' clip and enjoy the update!

Jeremy Irons in Margin Call (2011).

 

The Best Explanation of Twitter's Poison Pill Approach Yet

There's a line in J.C. Chandor's excellent 2011 film Margin Call where Jeremy Irons' CEO character tells a subordinate to explain the company's dilemma simply to him: 

Maybe you could tell me what is going on. And please, speak as you might to a young child. Or a golden retriever. It wasn't brains that brought me here; I assure you that.

Twitter user Perpetua Hughes did just that for Twitter's poison pill defense against Elon Musk's takeover bid. Her thread riffs on the scene below, so if you haven't seen the movie, watch this scene first before reading her thread for maximum enjoyment.

"Thank you everyone for coming in at such an ungodly hour. The folks at Blackrock have informed me that we need the collective brain trust here urgently to deal with this Elon offer. So - why doesn’t someone tell me what they think is going on here?"

 "Over the last 5 years, Twitter has engaged in a process of what we used to call “denazification” - removal of any accounts pushing uncomfortable narratives; amplification of those voices committed to advancing what we like to call Real Change"

 "This has allowed us to get away with suppression of uncomfortable stories like the Hunter Biden laptop, for example, without raising any red flags. As a result, Twitter has built close working partnerships with legacy media outlets and intelligence agencies."

 "But Musk’s offer of $54.20 a share is so valuable that if Twitter were nothing more than what the average person thinks it is - a run-of-the-mill social media company - we would be required to sell to maximise value for our shareholders."

"So you’re telling me - Elon will buy Twitter, and remove the various censorship mechanisms we have in place. The music is about to stop, and we will be exposed for having run the greatest propaganda operation in the history of...capitalism."

 "Do you care to know why I’m in this chair? I’m here for one reason, and one reason alone. To ensure the narrative remains controlled. To ensure we keep making money while our populations remain distracted. To ensure the “normies” know what to think and when to think it."

 "Tell me, then - what are we to do with this...bid. > Poison pill. Dilute the value of the shares owned by everyday investors, sell more to those we can trust. Is that even possible?"

 "Yes. But who are we selling to? > The people we have always relied on to control the narrative that makes us money - Morgan Stanley, Saudi Arabia, Vanguard Group... If you do this, you will expose how corrupt the system is. No one will ever trust you, ever."

 "You think they’ll trust us if Musk gives them MORE access to information about how we operate? Give any Tom, Dick, or Harry access to a free marketplace of ideas? Let them speak openly about any issue, at any time? Are you aware of just how damaging that could be to all of us?"

 "Luckily, my friends at the SEC - or as Musk calls it, “the short selling enrichment commission” - have informed me they have a few surprises in store for Mr. Musk. By the time they’re through with him, he’ll be ready to send himself to Mars in one of those spaceships of his."

 

"The West Needs WWIII" - Martin Armstrong Warns "There's No Return To Normal Here"

 Interesting comments! Martin Armstrong is known for his views relatively extreme. But does that make them wrong? Russia and China are clearly crashing the Petrodollar balance of the last 50 years. No wonder the reaction is extreme. But are the US and Europe ready to go to war? Maybe. We will know soon enough!  

Via Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com,

Legendary financial and geopolitical cycle analyst Martin Armstrong thinks the New World Order’s so-called “Great Reset” plan for humanity now needs war to try and make it work. 

It could happen in the next few weeks. 

Armstrong explains, “What they are trying to do is deliberately poke the bear..."

"They are increasing the pressure on just about everything under the sun.  The West needs World War III.  They just need it.  The real problem here is they went to negative interest rates in 2014 in Europe.  They have been unable to stimulate the economy, and Keynesian economics have completely failed...

I would say this is mismanagement of government on a global scale.  The problem is that central banks have no control over the economy. 

Add to this, this type of inflation is substantially different than a speculative boom.  This inflation is based upon shortages.  These morons with covid... with lockdowns, ended up destroying the supply chains...

Things that are there, I buy extra of because next time it might be gone.  So, everybody is increasing their hoarding...

So, what we have with Europe, with its negative interest rates, they have wiped out all the pension funds.  They need 8% to break even, not negative rates.  There is not a pension fund in Europe that is solvent at this stage of the game. . . . The European government is collapsing.  If they end up defaulting, you are going to have millions of people down there with pitch forks storming the parliament.  So, to avoid that, they need war...

The Biden Administration has deliberately destroyed the world economy.”

If there is war in Europe, the “U.S. dollar will get stronger initially and not weaker” according to Armstrong.  Armstrong also says,

“This is all deliberate.  There is no return to normal here.  Unfortunately, this is where we are headed.”

Armstrong contends, war in Europe could break out in a couple of weeks, and the EU and NATO are pushing this.  Armstrong says,

“They want Russia to do something. . . . This thing with Russia is the same thing all over again.  Unfortunately, we are headed for war.”

Armstrong also talks in detail about the following subjects:  Digital currency and why the Deep State is pushing so hard for it; gold, silver, food and just about everything going way up in price because of shortages.

Armstrong recommends that people “stockpile two years of food.”  Armstrong has other tips for what the common man needs to stock up on; Armstrong also says President Trump is the only President he knew that cared about U.S. soldiers dying in combat.  This is why Trump wanted to bring the troops home, and the Deep State warmongers hated him for it. 

Armstrong also gives his predictions on who wins the midterm election this coming November.  Will it matter which party comes out on top?

In closing, Armstrong says,

“We are not getting back to normal.  The system is crumbling from within, and it’s just like the fall of Rome, basically."

Something Is Rotten In The State Of Shanghai’s Latest Covid Lockdowns

 I agree with the article below: What exactly is going on in China?

 Because we do not understand the real motivation behind this senseless and extreme lock down, it is to my opinion more worrying than what is currently going on in Ukraine. While Ukraine is a tragedy, it easily could be stopped on a dime by true negotiations between the US and Russia. Not so with China.

Something's Rotten In The State Of Shanghai’s Latest Lockdowns

China is overshooting the mark, even for a unilateral state run communist government, and it feels like something odd no doubt about it, there’s something seriously disturbing about the state of the recent Covid lockdowns taking place in Shanghai. Even for China.

Here is what the outbreak looks like, if we are to believe the numbers coming out of China. You’ll have to excuse me for being frank, but I simply don’t believe them. China has lied about nearly everything since the beginning of the pandemic, and they certainly don’t have the rest of the world’s best interest in mind now that they are allying with Russia economically.

Source: NY Times

Rather, I believe the numbers are likely being exaggerated one way or the other (just as I believe China does with their macroeconomic data), in order to meet the needs of whatever agenda the CCP is trying to push.

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Here we are, two years into Covid, with ample time behind us to have studied the virus, developed vaccines, boosters and therapeutics and allowed for natural immunity to spread – and China is locking down the city of 26.3 million people at the first sign of a couple cases of Covid.

Photo: NBC News

The actions China has taken to implement this round of lockdowns have been dystopian and Orwellian, to say the least.

For example, according to the NY Times:

• all international flights to and from Shanghai have been halted

• many roads to the city’s two airports have also been closed

• the government performed P.C.R. tests on 25.67 million people

• the government has not allowed residents to go to grocery stores

• the government has put together tens of thousands of cots in two convention centers as quarantine centers - but they don’t have showering facilities

China is also, once again, sealing people in their homes. Videos on social media “show trapped residents howling and screaming from inside high-rise buildings at night,” The Independent wrote this week.

Eric Feigl-Ding @DrEricDing

Residents in #Shanghai screaming from high rise apartments after 7 straight days of the city lockdown. The narrator worries that there will be major problems. (in Shanghainese dialect—he predicts people can’t hold out much longer—he implies tragedy).

According to social media posts, the city is even using drones to try and calm the nerves of angry residents.

“Please comply [with] covid restrictions. Control your soul’s desire for freedom. Do not open the window or sing,” this drone is reported to be saying.

Alice Su @aliceysu

As seen on Weibo: Shanghai residents go to their balconies to sing & protest lack of supplies. A drone appears: “Please comply w covid restrictions. Control your soul’s desire for freedom. Do not open the window or sing.” m.weibo.cn/status/4755028…

There are a innumerable disturbing things about the dystopian way this alleged outbreak is being handled, but none more pressing is the question of why it is being handled the way it is.

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It felt like, heading into the spring, the world was over the idea of Covid. Mask mandates and vaccine mandates were being lifted, businesses were starting to recover and we were heading into the warmth of summer with the attitude that we now knew the risks of Covid and that it was time for every person to take care of themselves.

So, why such a drastic overreaction by China? Why continue the country’s completely irrational and inane “Covid Zero” policy at this point?

It’s simply doesn’t make any sense – even for China. In fact, the country’s extremely dramatic and overzealous response feels so abnormal that it made me wonder yesterday whether China was simply using it as a tool for a state sponsored power grab that it had long planned.

I also wondered if the drastic measures - similar to the measures we saw at the beginning of Covid from China - were a sign that the country knows something about the virus that the rest of the world still doesn’t.

Certainly, nobody thinking reasonably believes such a drastic reaction to this virus, which has already wreaked its first round of global havoc but has settled down and become a way of life in places like Florida and the Nordic states where they’ve allowed herd immunity to run rampant, is warranted.

Quoth the Raven @QTRResearch

The Covid response in Shanghai is so insane and asinine given how dangerous Covid is, it’s starting to feel like either (1) the government is using Covid to implement Orwellian rules it had long planned or (2) there’s something about this virus they know, that we don’t, yet.

Yesterday, on Twitter, those were the only two alternate explanations I could conceive of for China’s actions.

Rabo: Over Half Of France Just Voted For Extreme Alternatives To The Status Quo

 Every Monday I enjoy reading the market review by Michael Every from Rabo Bank. His no-nonsense approach is refreshing and usually highlight interesting facts.

Over Half Of France Just Voted For Extreme Alternatives To The Status Quo by Michael Every at Rabo Bank

Le Pen is Mightier Than The Sword(?)

Markets may try an attempt at risk on today given the French elections saw President Macron win around 28% in the first round while far-right - and pro-Putin - Le Pen got around 24% and is also through to the head-to-head in two weeks. An even-further far right candidate got 7%, and the far-left candidate got 22%, while the centre-right got just 5%. Even if Macron wins, an advance risk-on rally will overlook that French society is deeply happy. Over half of it just voted for extreme alternatives to the status quo. Yet France is one of the world’s richest countries, with a nuclear power network to rely on, and a huge food surplus: if it is that angry, imagine the implications elsewhere.

In poorer countries, things look far worse. Food prices hit a record high in March according to the FAO; one reports suggests Ukraine’s harvest could be down 50% this year, which could make things far worse; we see headlines like ‘Rising Food Costs Push Arab World's Vulnerable to Breaking Point’; and Lebanon, a buyer of Ukrainian wheat, is allegedly out of it completely: its last delivery was ruined by moisture - and it does not appear to have the spare FX reserves to buy more at a time of tight supply and soaring prices.

Pakistan just saw the parliamentary ousting of pro-Chinese PM Khan, despite it being a nuclear power in a tense neighborhood; and the chaos in pro-China Sri Lanka, where the IMF are talking about a new loan rather than a new Marshall Plan; and that’s at a time when others are talking about a new global financial architecture – Russia on Saturday called on the BRICs economies to extend the use of national currencies and integrate their payment systems, for example. US President Biden is to talk to Indian PM Modi this week: certainly lots to discuss.

Today’s Chinese CPI picked up slightly more than expected from 0.9% to a still-low 1.5% y/y (it’s amazing what price controls and a policy of deliberate over-supply can do), while PPI fell back from 8.8% to 8.3% y/y (again, it’s amazing what price controls and going all-in on cheap coal can do). So, food prices may not be a major issue right now in China - but food *supply* is. The market voices who extolled China’s Covid restrictions are eerily quiet now tens of millions are locked down and reportedly struggling to get hold of enough to eat, prompting the US to withdraw its diplomatic personnel from Shanghai. The former editor of the acerbic Global Times states it is “rude, undiplomatic, and unethical” for the US to comment on China’s Covid struggles. I don’t recall the reverse being true when it was the US floundering with the virus – it was the US system that was seen as failing.

At least Covid has delayed a further China-US firestorm, as House Speaker Pelosi has postponed a visit Taiwan after testing positive. The same former editor says Pelosi is “playing with fire”: the Japanese press today says, ‘Taiwan conducts drills to prepare for possible Chinese attack on nuclear plant’, showing the kind of fire potentially being played with.

Meanwhile, we are days away from a huge new front in east Ukraine, as Russia reportedly calls up 60,000 reservists to fight there. That really will be the largest battle in Europe since WW2. Yet the even larger one many in markets still refuse to see. Former-oligarch Khodorkovsky argues, “The US and its Western allies fail to understand that from Putin’s perspective, they are already at war with Russia.”; Russian intellectual Karaganov, in an interview, says, “We are at war with the West. The European security order is illegitimate.”:

“We see that most of the [European security] institutions are, in our view, one-sided and illegitimate. They are threatening Russia and Eastern Europe. We wanted fair peace, but the greed and stupidity of the Americans and the short-sightedness of the Europeans revealed they didn’t want that. We have to correct their mistakes.… Americans and their NATO partners continue support of Ukraine by sending arms. If that continues, it is obvious that targets in Europe could or will be hit in order to stop lines of communications. Then the war could escalate. At this juncture it is becoming more and more plausible. I think the Joint chiefs of staff of US armed forces are of the same opinion as I am.”

That is as Finland and Sweden are both being reported as being on the verge of NATO membership, making the European security order even less legitimate in Russia’s eyes; and Western weapons are flooding into Ukraine from some countries, if not from Germany, whose dog ate its geopolitical homework again. Someone is bluffing; or someone is going to get a shock. We won’t find out which until we escalate.

So, trade as if Le Pen is mightier than the sword. Just consider how many daggers are being drawn behind you, and knives are falling: the dollar index DXY is just shy of 100 this morning, up over 8% over 12 months; and Aussie 10-year yields have flirted with 3%, perhaps flagging a warning to US Treasuries trading at 2.70%.

Regardless, many in markets think they are mightier than the likes of Le Pen or any sword. Indeed, a recent op-ed in The New York Times argued “Ordinary People Don’t Think Like Economists. It’s a Problem.” I will confess I didn’t read it. I will also confess I wouldn’t read it even if it were free, let alone requiring a subscription – which logically makes me one of the ordinary people and not an economist. However, that op-ed title points to how we ended up in our current mess: presuming neoliberal economics was a panacea for the longer cycles of history, class struggle, and even of national character, rather than an amplifier of all of them.

As an example, as Italy signs a new gas supply deal with Algeria, Germany is contemplating its Russian gas flows. Thinking like an economist, it sees voluntarily switching off the gas to hit the Russian economy is bad because it would mean a deep German recession. There are various figures bandied about, but some say GDP might fall as much as 6%. On the other hand, has Germany calculated the cost of buying Russian gas, for now, and de facto helping it win the war in Ukraine? I don’t mean the direct human cost, which social media is pointing out. I mean the future economic cost to Germany of having a victorious, entrenched, revanchist, irridentist Russia as a neighbour, and inspiring a new global alliance around it. You think that would cost less than 6% of GDP over time, and carry even larger tail risks? You must be an economist!

Knives are also out for UK Chancellor and until-recently-presumed-next-PM Sunak, as another rich (net food importing) country sees economic pain and rising public discontent. Sunak is now revealed as holding a US Green Card(!), while his wife is a ‘non-dom’ not paying tax on her foreign income. How both of these facts were apparently unknown until last week is politically jaw-dropping. Then again, so is Sunak’s alleged resistance to the UK acting to ensure its long-term energy security by fast-tracking seven new nuclear power stations. He is reported as believing Russia will win the war soon and we will all go back to BAU, so why bother spending so much? He is *obviously* an economist.

Here’s the Massive Difference Between a Theoretical Russian Gold Put and an Actual Russian Gold Put

This is an interesting article concerning gold and especially the time it will take for a gold peg to be implemented. (I agree with the explanation but not with the timing as a financial crash would/will accelerate the process.)

Here’s the Massive Difference Between a Theoretical Russian Gold Put and an Actual Russian Gold Put

 

I originally published this article here on 6 April 2022, but since conditions have drastically changed since then, I’ve provided the brief update below. To read all my articles when first published, please sign up here.

9 April 2022 UPDATE: What a difference 23-hours make. Though the Bank of Russia announced that they had intended to keep the peg of 5,000 rubles to 1g of gold for the next three months, on 7 April, 2022, one day after I published this article, they released a statement that they will now buy gold at market prices due to a “significant change in market conditions”. No doubt, one reason for this decision to end this peg prematurely was the massive discount in Russia to purchase gold versus futures and spot prices granted by the fixed price of 5000 rubles to 1g of gold. Another significant contributing factor to the Bank of Russia’s decision was the manifestation of my explanation written on 6 April that “the ruble would only have to strengthen, against the USD, by another 3.42% to bring the gold price in Russia up to parity with the USD equivalent price”. 

Over the last 24-hours, the ruble has risen by more than this percentage against the USD, which would have raised the USD equivalent price of gold in Russia, if the peg were maintained, to a premium above current global future/spot gold prices. This development also modifies my "gold prices likely to remain dampened in the immediate term" comment below, as the unpegging of the rising ruble to gold allows global spot prices to rise without creating ridiculous discounts in the gold ruble price in Russia. Although the Bank of Russia was somewhat cryptic in its reference to a vague “significant change in market conditions”, there is no doubt in my mind that my aforementioned explanations were the conditions that caused them to dissolve a peg that they had originally planned to maintain for three months . Despite this, all the points I make below, to a large degree, still remain true. Below is the entirety of the article I published on 6 April, 2022.

There has been a lot of buzz in the gold community surrounded Russia’s decision to price gold in rubles regarding the creation of a “Russian gold put”, a floor in gold prices, similar to the Greenspan and Bernanke puts placing a floor beneath US stock markets. However, I don’t think the manifestation of a Russian gold put in the immediate to intermediate term is realistic.

Why? To begin, China launched a Yuan-denominated gold contract in Shanghai six years ago in April 2016. Back then, even Bloomberg Intelligence participated in the propaganda hype of this development by penning an article stating that gold prices could rise to $64,000 an ounce if China decided to even partially back the yuan with gold. Of course, after a series of articles in mass financial media touted the “Shanghai gold put”, gold ended the year much lower than its price at the time of the SGE launched the Yuan-based gold contract. Furthermore, after the yuan denominated gold contracts started trading on the SGE, gold  took another four years just to  challenge the 2011 highs of $2,000 per troy ounce after falling to about $1,100 at the end of 2016. In hindsight, to justify their narrative of a “Shanghai gold put”, some claimed the launch of yuan-denominated gold contracts placed a floor of $1,000 in the price of gold. However, clients of my former consulting/research firm knew that I stated gold prices would never sink below $1,000 again once it breached this mark at the end of 2009, six years before the Shanghai Gold Exchange launched its Yuan-denominated gold contracts. So again, the narrative of the Shanghai gold put creating a floor of $1,000 dollars was a false one.

If the launch of yuan-denominated gold contracts available for global trading did not create a floor for gold (as I believe the rise in gold prices over time created a natural $1,000 floor as a consequence of Central Bankers destroying the purchasing powers of fiat currencies around the world), then expectations of ruble-denominated gold sales achieving a feat that yuan-denominated gold contracts could not (in a short period of time) is improbable. Yuan-denominated gold trading should have far stronger influence over global gold prices than ruble-denominated gold trading, as China possesses the second largest GDP in the world while Russia comes in at number eleven, but yet yuan denominated gold trading could not even keep gold prices over a paltry $2,000 per ounce. In addition, because of the sanctions against NATO nations/allies buying Russian gold, the amount of global Russian gold exports will be curtailed, though certainly non-NATO allies may make up for the decline in NATO nation buying. Furthermore, though Russians certainly understand the utility of gold as a means to store and preserve purchasing power over decades of time due to the wild historical volatility in ruble purchasing power, I still would not judge Russian’s love for gold over that of the Chinese.

 

Misinformation Surrounds the Russian Gold Narrative

A lot of misinformation is being peddled all over the world about Russia’s decision to peg 1 gram of gold to a price of 5,000 rubles. While it is correct to claim that this decision helped the ruble to rapidly regain its purchasing power after imposed economic sanctions caused it to crash, as of 5 April, gold in Russia at the above peg is still trading at a massive $64 discount per troy ounce to its 5 April CME front month gold futures contract of $1,930. In other words, it is far cheaper now to buy physical gold in Moscow than to buy a CME gold futures contract and stand for delivery. And the ruble would only have to strengthen, against the USD, by another 3.42% to bring the gold price in Russia up to parity with the USD equivalent price. Thus, after all the NATO economic sanctions imposed on Russia, the attempt to collapse the ruble has completely failed.

 

For those that still believe BTC is a more sound form of money than is gold, there is a reason the Russian government/banking complex decided to peg the ruble to gold and not BTC. Further, all BTC hodlers should be grateful that Russia decided to peg the ruble to a fixed gold weight instead of a fixed BTC amount, because had they fixed the ruble to BTC, you can bet that bankers would have expedited new regulatory laws and forced BTC below $10,000 over the next few months.

Now, on to the misinformation. I’ve seen quite a few articles that reference the peg of 5,000 rubles to a gram of gold as a return to the gold standard. Stating that a peg of a fiat currency price to a weight of gold is a gold standard displays a complete lack of understanding of a true gold standard. A true gold standard can never peg the weight of gold to a fiat currency price for the same reason that cryptocurrencies priced in fiat currencies can never “save the world”.

Secondly, in 2019, 2020 and 2021, Russia exported roughly $5.7B, $18.5B and $18.7B worth of gold. In 2020 and 2021, at their respective annual average gold prices of $1,770 and $1,799, Russia’s exported gold tonnage amounted to roughly 325 tonnes in each of those years. This is an amount that will not only be easily absorbed by China, India and Russia’s Central Banks, but also more importantly, an amount now unavailable to back gold derivative markets in New York and London. For example, China only imported about 354 tonnes of Swiss gold last year, well under their 600 tonne average of Swiss gold imports from 2012-2019 (combined numbers of Hong Kong and China). If Russia doesn’t decide to keep their domestic gold production completely in-house, which is also a possible outcome of sanctions against Russian gold, China alone could easily absorb Russian gold exports banned by NATO nations if it decides to return to gold import tonnages of previous years. And if a drastic drop of Russian gold to Western nations becomes a permanent, instead of just a temporary situation, in future years, then indeed, the NY and London gold derivative markets may be exposed as “Emperors that have no clothes”.

Furthermore, in 2020, most of Russia’s exported gold ended up in the UK and in turn, was forwarded to Switzerland where it was refined and then exported to the US. The US, by a large margin, was the largest importer of Swiss gold, importing  $32B that year (click the following link to view Swiss gold imports by nation from 2012 to 2021). Thus, by following the money, it appears that the US, by sanctioning Russian gold that eventually ended up in US vaults in previous years, is cutting off its nose to spite its face. For those wondering how much gold is $32B, at the 2020 average gold price of $1,770 per troy ounce, $32B amounted to roughly 18M AuOzs, or roughly the amount that currently sits in COMEX vaults backing gold futures trading as of 4 April 2022.

Thus, beware of analysts that don’t even understand the definition of a gold standard that issue warnings that Russia’s peg of its ruble to gold will become a game changer in global gold pricing mechanisms, because their understanding of the banker perception management game, as is their understanding of a gold standard, is likely severely distorted (to view the very significant returns we just delivered to skwealthacademy patrons this past month using our understanding of how perception differs from reality in the investment world, click here).

 

Gold’s Price Likely to Remain Dampened, Not Elevated, in the Immediate Term

As the situation stands now, Russia’s decision to peg 5,000 rubles to 1 gram of gold has likely sealed gold’s immediate price fate at sub-$1,900 in direct contradiction to the opinion of many analysts that predict the Russian gold put will imminently push gold above the $2,000 mark for the third time this year. And should this prediction of mine, published first on my news site on 5 April 2022 (while gold was trading at $1,930) and then on my substack platform the next day, come true, such a development should buttress the argument for the need to entirely scrap the unethical, immoral system of global gold pricing that exists right for a free and fair pricing system actually based upon global physical supply and demand determinants.

 

Is a Russian Gold Put Possible At All?

Of course the development of a Putin or Russian gold put is possible, but the likelihood is that it will take years, not months, to develop. Gold soaring above $2,000 again will not be due to the Russian gold put when it happens but it will simply be just another step in gold’s naturally higher price progression. Long term, as other nations not on the NATO friendly list realize that gold should be the number one asset held by their Central Banks, then the Russian gold put will slowly come into play. Furthermore, as other non-NATO nations (in which more than half the world’s population live, see the map below) gain an understanding of how Russia’s massive gold reserves saved the ruble from purchasing power devastation after a coordinated attack by NATO nations’ imposed economic sanctions, then many of these nations will also ratchet up their sovereign physical gold purchases.

But such a process will take time as other non NATO nations have observed the NATO killing of Libya’s Muammar Gaddafi after he proposed creating a pan-African gold and silver currency to compete with Western fiat currencies and Goldman Sachs;s funding and support of a corrupt Malaysian PM  Najib Razak, in which Goldman Sachs bankers helped raise billions of dollars for Malaysia’s sovereign 1MDB fund through a shady deal that led to billions raised in a bond offering embezzled by Razak.  It was Razak’s illegitimate rise to power in Malaysia, funded directly by a shady Goldman Sachs bond offering, that delayed the return of popular former Malaysian PM Mahathir Mohamad to the Prime Minister office. This multi-year delay was critical in effectively killing Mahathir’s  proposed plan of a common gold-backed currency for all SE Asian nations (if you are not familiar with the above story, I highly encourage you to learn about it at the above link because you will learn how important it is to remain abreast of such situations to invest wisely when banker meddling is significantly altering asset prices).

Thus, for the Russian gold put to spread to other non-NATO nations, the leaders of these other nations will likely need to receive some assurances from Russia of military protection against illegal assassinations and coups ousting them from power before they agree to join any Russia-Africa-Asia-South America gold alliance that could genuinely place a floor underneath the price of gold as gold prices continue to rise against collapsing fiat currencies. This will likely develop as a result of sanctions against Russian gold imports, but the development of this alliance is far more complex than is being presented by most outlets today, and thus the Russian gold put is something that, in my opinion, will not materialize in months, but take years to build. Many geopolitical alliances will have to be formed and strengthened for a real Russian gold put to materialize. Certainly it may develop, and it likely will develop over time, but as Gaddafi’s and Mahathir’s failures to implement an African and Asian gold put illustrated, doing so is not without consequences of sparking military and/or economic wars against such “offending” nations so such alliances necessary to form a regional “gold put” are not ones that will be formed quickly and easily.

Since economic sanctions against any nation that joins a Russian gold put alliance, enforced by NATO nations, are likely, resource and energy agreements between Russia and other nations most likely must be consummated to assure other nations that would join a gold put initiative that their energy and commodity (including food) needs can and will be met in spite of such punitive sanctions.

Shocking Estimates Show Ukraine's Crop Harvest Could Be Halved

 The real crisis are usually not the ones on the news frontpages but the ones brewing slowly in the background. The harvest in Ukraine may be a problem for some countries such as Egypt? but it is hiding a much larger one in the background: the price explosion of fertilizers. 

In many countries, farmers will not be able to afford fertilizers in 2022 reducing drastically their productivity and crops. There are many sectors where a 10% decline is a problem but not a catastrophe. Food is not one of them. (We are, it is said, nine meals away from anarchy.) Adding to the war in Ukraine (energy) and the implosion of our financial bubbles (credit), we are heading towards an epic second half of 2022: Buckle up!  

Shocking Estimates Show Ukraine's Crop Harvest Could Be Halved 

Ukraine is one of the world's top exporters of corn, sunflower oil, and wheat. Disruptions stemming from Russia's invasion of Ukraine have stoked fears the war-torn country could experience a 50% decline in crop output this year, according to Bloomberg. 

Forecast data from ag expert UkrAgroConsult show Ukraine's corn output could be as low as 19 million tons, about half of last year's 41 million tons. 

UkrAgroConsult's pessimistic outlook follows huge production uncertainties as farmers experience shortages of diesel and fertilizer and bombed-out infrastructure. 

The outlooks of two other ag firms aren't as gloomy. Black Sea research firm SovEcon expects Ukraine's 2022 corn harvest to be 27.7 million tons, and Barva Invest's outlook is 29.5 million tons. Both a far below 2021 totals. 

Maxigrain analyst Elena Neroba warned if farmers don't have diesel, they "can't plant huge hectares." 

"Some farmers still don't have access to seeds and fertilizers. Even if they already paid for them, the delivery supply chain doesn't work as well as it should," Neroba said. 

Regardless of how much the conflict impacts output, global food prices have never risen so fast and have never been so high in anticipation of food shortages worldwide. 

In March, global food prices jumped a stunning 12.64% MoM - almost double the previous record monthly surge...

Prices have exceeded levels only seen during the inflation riots of 2010/11, known as Arab Spring. 

Breaking down export numbers, Ukraine produced 49.6% of global sunflower oil, 15.3% of global maize, 12.6% of global barley, and about 10% of global wheat. 

Rather than planting, some Ukrainian farmers are stealing Russian tanks and selling them to the government. 

We've already pointed out that food inflation riots are underway and may continue to spread throughout emerging market economies. 

The bad news is that the world's hunger problem isn't going away and may only worsen. The anticipation of Ukraine's crops evaporating from the global food supply will exacerbate the incoming food crisis. Food supplies may plunge next year as harvests will result in lower production, which may force food prices even higher. 

The world could be on the cusp of a multi-year food crisis. It's never been a better time to start growing your own garden.