The Geopolitics Of Chaos: Apocalypse Scenario IV

  Should we stop playing this game where the only winning move is not to play?

  But of course we won't. And so we are stuck with this slow creeping towards the next World War with no reverse gear. 

  We have no way of knowing where exactly the conflict will start but is this important at this point when most countries are busy amassing tinder for the coming conflagration with no sane adult left in the room, especially in the West?

By Tuomas Malinen (link)

In this entry I will expand the analysis we presented in the March Deprcon Outlook of GnS Economics. Issues discussed:

• ‘Craziness’ driving the world towards WWIII is increasing.
• Geopolitics is dominating in the background, but people tend to forget it’s a two-way street and that there’s no “right or wrong”.
• Chaos sowed across the globe does not fit any standard analytical framework.
• Major escalations could be just around the corner.

The craziness deepens

On 3rd April, Presidents of Finland and Ukraine, Alexander Stubb and Volodymyr Zelenskyi, signed a defense pact with Ukraine. Finland has not signed such bilateral pacts with a war-going country since our President Risto Ryti signed a Ryti-Ribbentrop-pact in June 1944. The “pact” was actually just a personal letter from President Ryti to the leader of the Nazi-Germany, Adolf Hitler, where he vouched that he would not pursue peace with the Soviet Union (Russia). In exchange, Finland continued to receive military support and grain from Nazi Germany, which was crucial for her efforts to stop the ongoing major attack of the Soviet Union. President Ryti made the pledge under extreme pressure, as Finland was facing an imminent threat of invasion, and paid a heavy price. He was imprisoned for three years by a war crimes court (demanded by the Soviet Union) in 1946.

So, Finland signing a defense pact with a country in a direct conflict with Russia is utterly unheard-of, since WWII. It makes absolutely no sense for the security of Finland. It’s actually a threat to her security. Some could even call it an act of high treason. The most worrying part is the statement by President Stubb, when he was asked whether Finland would be sending troops to Ukraine. His answer was: “At this point there’s no need to send troops”. This opens a door for future deployment of Finnish forces to Ukrainian soil. What could possibly be the motive for this?

On Thursday, there was another major escalation, when the U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced that “Ukraine will become a member of NATO”. This was exactly what President Putin warned against in 2008, when he (allegedly) said to President Bush that if Ukraine ever becomes a member of NATO, the country would cease to exist. Why an earth are western leaders deliberately pushing against a known red line of the Kremlin?

Europe crumbles

The European security structure has been based on unification and stopping conflicts in their tracks through negotiations since WWII. It was highly effective during the Cold War, while we’ve seen one major regional conflict in Europe since the Second World War, i.e., the Yugoslav Wars fought from 1991 till 1999, caused by the fall of the Communist Bloc. In 2004, we had the Georgian conflict and in 2014, the Ukrainian conflict begun.

What was notable in both Georgian and Ukrainian conflicts, was that they were caused by NATO and the EU coming too close to Russian borders in countries the Kremlin considered unstable. Simple-minded people assume that geopolitics is about fairness and justice. It’s not. It’s about security, period. China, Russia and the U.S. play ruthless geopolitical games. Just think, what would happen if Mexico would try to join a military alliance with Russia?

Yet, what we know from history is that when the European security structure crumbles, the world should tremble in fear. WWI and WWII, the most destructive wars ever fought, got started from failure of politics in Europe. Now we are on the path to failure, yet again. The question is why? Two plausible explanations rise above others.

Geopolitical realities

The most plausible geopolitical explanation that I’ve seen on the Ukrainian conflict is that the U.S. wanted to eliminate the threat of the Eurasian alliance, which was forming between China, Europe and Russia. While it was a loose alliance, it was deepening. Russia provided ample raw energy, China was the production hub (factory) and Europe provided capital and know-how. Overtime, this could (would) have developed into a deeper alliance, which could very easily have risen to threaten the global hegemony of the U.S.

Dr. Zbigniew Brzezinski, one of the most influential geopolitical scholars ever lived (he passed away on the 26th of May 2017), noted in the conclusions of his magnum opus, The Grand Chessboard: American Primacy and Its Geostrategic Imperatives (1997), that:

The time has come for the United States to formulate and prosecute an integrated, comprehensive, and long-term geostrategy for all of Eurasia. This need arises out of the interaction between two fundamental realities: America is now the only global superpower, and Eurasia is the globe's central arena. Hence, what happens to the distribution of power on the Eurasian continent will be of decisive importance to America's global primacy and to America's historical legacy.

This aim was achieved with the onset of the Russo-Ukrainian war in late February 2022 (read update on 24/12/2022 on the controversy of who actually started the war). This could also explain, why the war continues. A peace between Russia and Europe would, most likely, re-start the construction of the Eurasian alliance. Perpetual war will guarantee that this does not occur, but this requires deepening escalation. We now seem to be on that road. However, the “Eurasian strategy” does not explain what is happening in the Middle-East.

Chaos as the aim?

Actions of Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) in the Middle-East have been highly escalatory of late. The strike on the Iranian embassy in Damascus cannot be considered as anything other than a deliberate act of escalation. Embassies are sanctuaries everywhere, and striking one simply cannot be a “mistake”. The IDF leveling hospitals is also nothing short of a war crime. Yet, the world stands idly by. Why? Moreover, on Thursday, several Iranian military bases were struck by a Jaish al-Adl, a Baluchi militant group, allegedly funded by the U.S., Saudi-Arabia and Israel. Iran has threatened to retaliate (understandably), which would lead to a deepening circle of escalation and, eventually, to a regional war, likely with very dire consequences. The United Arab Emirates also just announced that it will cut all diplomatic ties with Israel.

The deepening escalation, by Israel and some U.S. backed forces, makes absolutely no sense, unless the aim is to ignite a regional war. One could argue that Israel could be looking to crush all threats it sees in the region in a regional war. However, the devastation to the world would likely be cataclysmic, leading to wide-spread chaos. Who could possibly want that?

Divide et Impera

In December, I floated the idea of a ‘group-over-groups’ pulling strings above our democratic and supranational institutions. My analysis was based on the Occam’s Razor principle, which states that when you seek a solution to any problem, you should only include the least amount of assumptions. A dark agenda by a very powerful group is a theory with the least amount of assumptions. It simply ticks all the boxes. From my piece:

[…] behind every political decision is a force, which pushes it through. In the ideal situation, it’s the will of the people. A majority of the populace in a country want something, a majority of politicians want to get re-elected (and not to upset their supporters) and so they push the legislation through, more or less representing the will of the people. This is the ideal.

However, during the past three years, political leaders have made decisions that have been very detrimental to and/or objected to by the general populace on a global scale. These include multiple Corona lockdowns, money printing (leading to the inflation shock), two wars, sanctions hurting economies, the woke-agenda, and the de-farming agenda (see, e.g., this and this). Their combination makes no sense in a national-political sense, because they create havoc. It’s also difficult to trace all of them to the motives of any of the major hidden lobbyist groups, like the military-industrial complex on which U.S. President Dwight D. Roosevelt warned already in 1962.

I speculated that the aim of such a group could be Divide et Impera. This ancient principle, or strategy, translates as Divide and Rule (Conquer). The main idea is to create such large divisions between political parties, or whatever dominating parties, so that they cannot rise to challenge the rule subjected upon them, usually by an outside force. Ancient Romans used this strategy many times to enforce and cement their rule over their provinces. The strategy has four key elements (from Wikipedia):

1. Creating or encouraging divisions among the subjects to prevent alliances that could challenge the sovereign and distributing forces so that they overpower each other.
2. Aiding and promoting those who are willing to cooperate with the sovereign.
3. Fostering distrust and enmity between local rulers.
4. Encouraging meaningless expenditures that reduce the capability for political and military spending.

We can see all in play in our western societies. Ordinary people have been divided based on artificial conditions, like vaxed/un-vaxed, pro-Ukraine/pro-peace, woke/conservative and those supporting all government actions vs. those opposing (this latter has existed in human societies for quite a while). Those that obey the agendas set by governments have been given full access to societies (during, e.g., Corona times), while those criticizing have been silenced and even imprisoned. In Europe, leaders of countries that followed the orders of unelected leaders of the European Union (Commission) received high positions in the EU power structure, while dissidents are discarded and even their careers sometimes destroyed. All local rulers, who rise to challenge the commands by the EU (like Victor Orbán in Hungary), have been defamed and even blackmailed. European nations have decades long histories of neglecting their defense spendings and now propositions are being made to fund the re-armament of Europe through the EU. “Meaningless” expenditures have of course been on the rise in western societies for a very long time.

When we subject the strategy of Divide et Impera to policies enacted across the globe, we can seen similar developments everywhere. This enforces the view that there could actually be very an influential ‘group-over-groups’ spreading its agenda of chaos (Divide et Impera) across the globe.

Conclusions

Forecasting has become extremely speculative in recent years. This is because the developments we are witnessing do not fit to any standard analysis framework. It’s also really strange how intelligent people seem to have forgotten the brutal realities of geopolitics. Fairness and “right and wrong” simply do not fit into it, but that’s how the western propaganda is marketing things currently (Russia naturally has it’s own war propaganda). The propaganda operations run in the West since the start of the Russo-Ukrainian war have been so effective that even Josef Goebbels would have envied them.

The question we should be asking is: while geopolitical realities are dominating developments, at least in Ukraine, is there a global agenda of Divide et Impera being played in the background? If there is, who is pulling the strings? This need not be so, but if we do not ask these questions, we risk being played by forces seeking our demise. This is no time to be small-minded and/or naive.

The most frightening scenario is that the wars in the Middle-East and Europe will flare up within the next few months (or even weeks). Rallies in gold, oil and stocks of weapons companies suggests that something is up. Be prepared for extreme events.

Container Ship Reportedly "Lost Power" In NYC Harbor, Right Before Verrazzano-Narrows Bridge

   Still don't believe in Cyber attacks? OK, this one missed but what is surprising is that they would try the same trick twice in a row. It shows that these people are brazen and are so much in control of the narrative that they simply do not give a sh*t about what we think or believe. They've decided that now is the time to pull down the curtain and upend the social order. If neither the Russian, nor the Iranians, nor apparently the Chinese take the bait, more radical measures are needed. 

  Expect a hot Summer!

Container Ship Reportedly "Lost Power" In NYC Harbor, Right Before Verrazzano-Narrows Bridge

A massive container ship reportedly lost power on the Upper New York Bay - just before the Verrazzano-Narrows Bridge connecting the New York City boroughs of Staten Island and Brooklyn.

According to Captain John Konrad, CEO of gCaptain, a New York City tugboat captain informed him that the 354-meter container ship APL QINGDAO "lost power while transiting New York harbor." 

"They had 3 escort tugs but 3 more were needed to bring her under control. They regained power & were brought to anchor near the verrazano bridge," the tugboat captain told Konrad. 

Konrad said the vessel is registered in Malta and is owned and operated by a major French shipping company. 

He did note, "We are still waiting for confirmation on the incident." 

Adding validity to Konrad's report, the vessel's AIS tracking data shows it abruptly dropped anchor late Friday night - just before the 13,700-foot suspension bridge. As of Sunday morning, the vessel's navigational status is "anchored."  

The incident comes nearly two weeks after a container ship lost power and collapsed the 1.6-mile-long Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore, Maryland, paralyzing the Port of Baltimore. 

Source: Bloomberg

"While the Verrazzano shares some characteristics with the Key Bridge, there are also important differences," an opinion piece in the Wall Street Journal recently read, adding:

"First, its massive vertical supports are positioned much closer to land than the Key Bridge's—1,000 feet away from the harbor's navigation channel—making them considerably less likely to be hit by an errant vessel. The towers also are surrounded by rock islands, which would force any ship heading toward the supports to run aground before striking the tower. Additional safety projects have further hardened protections, even adding an air gap sensor system that detects vertical clearances between the bridge and large vessels passing underneath."

The Reality Of Vitamin D Supplementation

  Since this is Sunday, let's take a break from the news stream and have a short walk on the health side. 

  I have always been fascinated by vitamins. These are complex molecules with even more complex effects on the body. In our health conscious times, they have become important to us. This is especially the case of vitamin D. 

  The article below is a rather good introduction to the subject. 

  Bottom line if you do not have time to read everything: Sunshine is probably enough vitamin D for your health. So go hiking, cycling or whatever outdoor activity you enjoy most. It will improve your mood, your health, physical and mental and reconnect you with nature.

Authored by Sheramy Tsai via The Epoch Times,

One in five Americans regularly reach for vitamin D supplements, yet most are unaware that they’re taking not just a vitamin -  but a hormone.

While renowned for bolstering bone strength and immune health, vitamin D’s story is not straightforward. A blend of myth and established science invites a closer look into its true nature and impact.

Vitamin D: Understanding Its Dual Role

Vitamin D stands apart in the world of nutrients. It’s a sun-sourced substance acting as both a nutrient and a hormone. This dual role is significant, as hormones, which orchestrate many bodily functions, aren’t typically taken as supplements like vitamins.

Endocrinologist Dr. Michael Holick, a leading vitamin D expert, tells The Epoch Times, “The body more effectively utilizes vitamin D when it’s naturally synthesized from sunlight, compared to standard supplement doses.”

This difference is key to understanding vitamin D’s health role and the complexities of supplementing a hormone.

Unlike most nutrients, the hormonal nature of vitamin D means it has a broader systemic impact, influencing not just bone health but also immune function, cell growth, and inflammation control. This understanding is crucial in guiding medical approaches to its use, including the potential risks and benefits of supplementation.

Beyond Bone Health

Vitamin D is more than just a bone health and immune system booster. Its multifaceted role in the body impacts everything from mood regulation to cardiovascular health.

At its core, vitamin D is vital for calcium absorption in the gut, and essential for bone strength and health. “Without enough Vitamin D, the body can only absorb 10–15 percent of calcium,” Dr. Alex Foxman, a leading internist and preventive care specialist, told The Epoch Times. Insufficient calcium can result in weaker bones and heightened fracture risks.

Moreover, vitamin D is pivotal for immune health. Dr. Holick observes, “Vitamin D receptors are in almost every cell, including immune cells.” Proper levels are vital for a balanced immune response and preventing autoimmune disorders.

Dr. Nathan Goodyear, an integrative cancer physician and director of Brio Medical, an integrative cancer treatment center in Scottsdale, Arizona, stresses vitamin D’s essential role in immune functionality and its influence on chronic diseases, like cancer. He explains, “The immune system does not work well if vitamin D is not optimal,” emphasizing its role in cancer, where immune strength is crucial.

Recent research, including melanoma studies, indicates that vitamin D supplementation can enhance treatment responses and prolong survival in cancer patients, even with currently insufficient daily dosage recommendations.

Vitamin D also plays a significant role in heart health.

Studies have linked low vitamin D levels to an elevated risk of heart disease. Those deficient in vitamin D are more likely to experience hypertension, heart failure, and strokes.

Mental health is another arena where vitamin D plays a significant role.

Kimberly Parker, a licensed psychotherapist, told The Epoch Times, “There’s a clear link between low levels of vitamin D and higher incidences of depression and mood disorders.”

It also affects seasonal affective disorder, a depression variant tied to seasonal changes. “I have seen my patients have a reduction of symptoms once they started to become consistent with their vitamin D intake,” she reports.

Vitamin D’s Journey From Sunlight to Cellular Powerhouse

Vitamin D is vital for health, existing in different forms, each taking a unique path within our body. Grasping these forms is key to understanding how vitamin D functions in our system.

Once vitamin D enters our body through sun, diet, or supplements, it transforms to become active.

First, it changes into calcidiol in the liver, then into calcitriol, its active form, in the kidneys. Dr. Holick clarifies, “Calcitriol is the form that our body can use to perform various functions.”

Interestingly, each form of vitamin D undergoes a similar conversion process in the body. The source of vitamin D might differ, but the pathway it takes in our bodies converges.

The conversion efficiency of vitamin D can differ. The skin’s capacity to produce vitamin D3 diminishes with age and is influenced by skin pigmentation, geographical location, and lifestyle.

Controversies in Vitamin D Testing

The routine way to measure vitamin D levels in the body is through a blood test called 25-hydroxyvitamin D. This measurement reflects vitamin D levels from sunlight, food, and supplements. The less recommended 1,25-dihydroxyvitamin D test fails to gauge vitamin D reserves, rendering it ineffective for patient monitoring.

Vitamin D blood testing has surged, ranking as Medicare’s eighth most common lab test. Market reports pegged the 2023 testing market at $677.5 million, with projections reaching $1.06 billion by 2031.

Once led by giants like Abbott, Siemens, and Quest Diagnostics, the vitamin D testing market is now seeing a surge in home testing kits from smaller companies. Dr. Holick recalls, “Years ago, I told Quest that this would be their number one seller.”

“More than 10 million vitamin D blood tests are done annually in the United States, even though these tests are not recommended by major medical organizations,” Dr. Morton Tavel, a cardiologist and specialist in internal medicine and cardiovascular disease, told The Epoch Times. He references a 2020 Virginia health system study, where 10 percent of patients underwent vitamin D tests, often without medical indication.

Beyond adults, vitamin D testing in children skyrocketed 30-fold in 15 years, as per a BMJ study, though it didn’t significantly alter low vitamin D diagnosis rates.

This increase in vitamin D testing contrasts with medical associations’ guidelines, which generally discourage routine testing in asymptomatic, low-risk individuals.

For instance, the Endocrine Society recommends screening only high-risk groups. The U.S. Preventive Services Task Force sees insufficient evidence for universal screening. Choosing Wisely also advises against testing in low-risk groups, including the general population.

Dr. Joel Finkelstein from Massachusetts General Hospital’s Bone Density Center, as reported in a Harvard Health blog, voices skepticism about the rampant vitamin D deficiency screening, deeming many checks on healthy individuals unnecessary.

“Vitamin D has been hyped massively,” he states. “We do not need to be checking the vitamin D levels of most healthy individuals.” He challenges the evolutionary need for high vitamin D, noting its limited presence in natural foods and reduced synthesis in darker skin, common in sun-rich areas.

However, many functional medicine and naturopathic doctors recommend regular vitamin D testing.

The College of Naturopathic Medicine advises those in sun-poor climates to test routinely for better health maintenance.

Aligning with this view, Dr. Goodyear emphasizes the tests’ relevance, particularly regarding inflammation and chronic diseases like cancer. He told The Epoch Times, “Vitamin D will always be low in the place of significant inflammation, both acute and chronic,” advocating for regular monitoring for proper supplementation.

Dr. Goodyear draws an analogy to salmon swimming upstream against a current of inflammation, illustrating the challenges in increasing plasma vitamin D levels in such conditions. He likens this process to standard medical practices like monitoring blood pressure, emphasizing the need for a similar approach in natural therapies, “The process is to evaluate, dose, re-evaluate, and then re-dose,” he adds.

Reflecting the views of Linus Pauling, considered to be the “father of vitamin C,” Dr. Goodyear criticizes the medical oversight of pharmacokinetics and dynamics in natural therapies. He explains that physicians learn drug dosage precision but often forget that this also applies to vitamins. He advocates for a tailored approach in vitamin D therapy, moving away from a one-size-fits-all methodology.

Defining Optimal Vitamin D Levels

According to the U.S. Preventative Services Task Force, “No consensus exists on the definition of vitamin D deficiency or the optimal level of total serum 25-hydroxyvitamin.”

Some experts view 25(OH)D levels under 30 ng/mL as deficient. Common standards suggest 30-60 ng/mL as sufficient. Yet, many functional health practitioners advocate for an optimal range of 50–80 ng/mL.

Recommendations according to the National Institutes for Health (NIH):

The NIH clarifies that optimal vitamin D levels are unestablished, as they “vary by stage of life, by race and ethnicity, and with each physiological measure used.”

Contrasting these guidelines, voices like Dr. Goodyear’s claim current vitamin D dose recommendations are too low. He labels the current U.S. recommended daily allowances as “woefully inadequate.”

Dr. Goodyear notes that the conventional focus on preventing rickets overlooks the broader health benefits of higher vitamin D levels. This stance argues for higher optimal ranges, implying current standards don’t fully exploit the vitamin’s health potential.

Too Much of a Good Thing?

Vitamin D is vital, however, there’s concern about its overconsumption, particularly via supplements. Unlike water-soluble vitamins, which our bodies can quickly expel when in excess, vitamin D is fat-soluble and can accumulate in the liver and fat tissues to harmful levels, termed “vitamin D intoxication.”

Dr. Holick cautions that vitamin D intoxication, though extremely rare, is severe. Sun exposure can’t cause Vitamin D toxicity, but excessive supplementation can. “Any excess vitamin D made by the sun is destroyed by the sun. You can never become vitamin D intoxicated from sun exposure, but you can from supplements if you take too much,” he warns.

Vitamin D toxicity triggers excessive calcium in the blood, leading to nausea, vomiting, and weakness. If untreated, it can escalate to kidney damage, bone pain, and, rarely, death.

Some practitioners, including Pam Schoenfeld, a registered dietitian, assert that excessive vitamin D intake can lead to the depletion of retinol, the active form of vitamin A. Ms. Schoenfeld told The Epoch Times, “The current landscape of vitamin D supplementation often neglects the intricate balance with other crucial fat-soluble vitamins.”

In an article for the Weston Price Foundation, Ms. Schoenfeld cautions, “More astute practitioners know that supplementing with vitamin D, especially at levels of 5,000 IU per day ... is not advisable unless attention is paid to ensuring vitamin A intake is optimal.” This perspective emphasizes the delicate balance between these essential nutrients, suggesting that maintaining optimal levels of both is crucial for health, particularly during pregnancy.

Critics, like Dr. Holick, challenge this view, arguing that no substantial evidence supports the claim that Vitamin D adversely affects vitamin A levels. “It’s simply not true,” he notes.

The Vitamin D Supplementation Dilemma

Modern indoor lifestyles and diets low in vitamin D contribute to widespread deficiencies. Despite well-balanced diets, about 1 in 4 American adults and 70 percent of children fall short of necessary vitamin D levels.

Given these challenges, supplementation is an important consideration. Current recommendations call for 400 international units (IU) for children up to age 12 months, 600 IU for people ages 1 to 70, and 800 IU for people over 70.

Dr. Holick endorses supplements as a straightforward solution, especially for the sun-deprived, suggesting a total daily intake of 2000–3000 IU from diet, sun, and supplements.

However, not all practitioners agree that supplementation is necessary for everyone. “Although many studies had linked low levels of vitamin D to an assortment of medical conditions, when scientists tried administering it as a means to prevent or treat those problems, this ‘wonder’ supplement failed miserably,” Dr. Tavel told The Epoch Times.

Sunshine, a prime vitamin D source, can fulfill needs with minimal exposure. Dr. Tavel notes, “Your vitamin D storage generally lasts for about 10 to 12 weeks,” questioning the need for constant supplementation.

The vitamin D deficiency debate is complex. Dr. Tavel points out that “the widespread notion that much of America is walking around deficient in vitamin D came from a likely misinterpretation of the normal levels for vitamin D set by the Institute of Medicine more than a decade ago.” This has led to overestimation of deficiency rates and potentially unnecessary supplementation.

Yet, he explains, there are specific scenarios where supplementation is beneficial. The American Academy of Pediatrics advises 400 IU of vitamin D daily for breastfed infants. Those with medical conditions or limited sun exposure might also benefit.

Dr. Tavel warns that excessive supplementation, linked to increased fall risk and other hazards, underscores the need for balance in vitamin D intake.

Supporting Dr. Tavel, New England Journal of Medicine research found no fracture risk reduction in healthy adults supplementing with 2000 IU of vitamin D compared to non-supplementers.

Vitamin D’s necessity varies. Dr. Tavel reminds us, “For much of human history, people got their vitamin D mostly from the sun,” highlighting our body’s innate ability to regulate this nutrient.

Determining vitamin D supplementation requires personal assessment, medical consultation, and an eye on guidelines. Generally, a mix of diet, sun, and occasional supplements suffices for most, claims Dr. Tavel.

Expanding Vitamin D Supplement Industry

The vitamin D supplement market is rapidly growing, valued at $1,560 million in 2023 and expected to reach $2,780 million by 2033, growing at 5.9 percent annually. Drivers include an aging population, heightened health awareness, and a surge in demand for vitamin-enriched products.

In response to consumer demand, the industry is innovating with new delivery methods and formulations, like gummies, sprays, patches, creams, and potent capsules. This variety meets diverse preferences and needs, including ease of use and better absorption.

The industry’s growth is also propelled by robust marketing and advertising. Pharma and wellness firms heavily promote vitamin D supplements as key to health, shaping consumer views and fueling market expansion.

While this market growth mirrors a shift in health consciousness, it prompts concerns about self-prescribed supplementation and underscores the importance of a balanced approach to vitamin D consumption.

Best Sources of Vitamin D

Sun exposure is key in vitamin D production. UVB (ultraviolet B) rays convert skin cholesterol into vitamin D3, later transformed into calcitriol, its usable form. Interestingly, skin-produced vitamin D remains in the bloodstream for about twice as long as when ingested by food or vitamins.

Sunlight’s vitamin D productivity varies by time, season, and location. The best synthesis is between 10 a.m. and 3 p.m. in warmer months. However, above 37 degrees latitude, there’s negligible vitamin D production from November to March.

A 2022 study concluded, “Sun exposure can significantly make up for deficiencies in subjects who consume insufficient dietary Vit D. Compared with the extra cost and time for building habits of Vit D supplementation, moderate sun exposure appears to be a simple and costless means for the public to start in daily practice.”

The dminder app helps users identify optimal sun exposure times for vitamin D, offering real-time data based on location, time, and weather.

Dietary sources, though fewer, contribute to vitamin D intake. Fatty fish and UV-exposed mushrooms are key sources. Incorporating these foods can help maintain vitamin D, especially in less sunny periods.

Supplementation, particularly beneficial for those in higher latitudes, is another method. A study showed that while both sun and oral D3 supplements raise vitamin D levels, supplements were more effective due to compliance. Simply put, more people took supplements than spent time in the sun.

Vitamin D supplements are available as D2 (from plants) and D3 (from animals). D3, mirroring the body’s sun-induced production, is often recommended for effectively raising and maintaining vitamin D levels.

However, Dr. Holick asserts that “physiologic doses of D2 and D3 raise vitamin D levels in the blood the same,” effectively debunking myths about their differing impacts on health. Additionally, he confirms that the kidneys equally metabolize both forms.

Dr. Holick also touches on the regulatory history of these supplements in the United States, explaining that vitamin D2 remains the only pharmaceutical form available due to historical U.S. Food and Drug Administration approval processes. “No one ever got approval for D3,” he notes, highlighting a regulatory, rather than a health-based, reason for vitamin D2’s dominance in the market.

Though sunlight is the prime vitamin D source, its availability is inconsistent. Diet and supplements thus serve as vital alternatives to ensure sufficient vitamin D for optimal health.

Key Considerations for Vitamin D Supplementation

Understanding how to optimize vitamin D supplementation and reduce risks is crucial:

Fat-Soluble Nature

Contrary to popular belief and many recommendations, Dr. Michael Holick argues that vitamin D absorption doesn’t depend on dietary fat. He cites studies showing better absorption from skim milk, low in fat, than from full-fat milk. Hence, vitamin D can be taken with or without dietary fat.

Conjunction With Other Nutrients

• Vitamin K: Studies suggest taking vitamins D and K together may enhance bone health and reduce arterial calcification risks.

• Magnesium: Magnesium aids vitamin D metabolism, and high vitamin D doses can deplete magnesium levels. Adequate magnesium is vital for effective vitamin D use.

• Vitamin A: Vitamins A and D, both fat-soluble, work together, but consensus on taking them together has not been clearly established.

• Timing of Dosage: Some suggest aligning vitamin D intake with circadian rhythms, proposing daytime consumption to avoid sleep disturbances. However, Dr. Holick indicates no evidence supporting the idea that vitamin D disrupts sleep, making it safe to take at any time.

• Choice of Vitamin D Type: While D2 (ergocalciferol) comes from plants and fortified foods and D3 (cholecalciferol) from animal products and sunlight exposure, Dr. Holick states both forms raise and maintain vitamin D levels equally.

• Consult Health Care Professionals: Before starting supplements, consulting a health care provider is essential to determine proper dosing and assess potential interactions with other medications or health conditions.

While supplements may be useful, integrating them with natural vitamin D sources and a balanced lifestyle is crucial for overall well-being.

'Animal Spirits' Update (Or Reflections On Another Fake Unemployment Report)

  What happens when almost every data is false? Well, we're about to find out. 

  One of the great advance of the 20th Century was the invention of macro economic data. Indicators which although often uncertain would nevertheless give us information about the economy in general and trends in particular.

  Then politicians slowly realized the impact of the data. It was not really the economy driving itself but the mood of the investors and consumers and this mood could be indirectly controlled with... data!  

  It then took a few decades from understanding the data to controlling the data. Not, mind you, with sensible economic and social policies, that was complicated, time consuming and expensive. But the intricacies of statistics were far more accessible. 

 What is "inflation"? Well, it's complicated and the definition can vary. You have to aggregate prices. But before that you need to chose skillfully the price of what. Food and energy goes up and down so you need to smoother out the highs and lows. Technology tends to improve over time so how do you input a more powerful hard disk into inflation? A better designed door handle is invisible inflation-wise. 

 Still, from a political point of view having high inflation and reporting a lower number creates an irresistible bonus: Free money! If you report 2% inflation and actually have 4%, that's almost 2% of the money supply available for free. Invisible inflation which is there but unreported. 

 It took many years and innovations of statistical engineering to create new, very convenient concepts like hedonistic adjustment factors. Which in real life means calculating the progress of technology as an adjustment factor which allows you to understate inflation. So a cheaper computer is of course -10% that you can compute in your index directly. But even when the price stays the same, you still have these 10% available thanks to better technology (= -10%). Genius. And so convenient. More free money. About 1 to 1.5% per years! The end result is that in the past people would be benefiting from technology with lower prices and improved purchasing power. Not anymore. 

 This is just an example but almost ALL the data has been corrupted one way or the other. The result is that for most people in the West, although income has doubled, real income has been divided by two. In the 1960s, it was easy for a family to live on one salary. Now, it is difficult to break even with two.  

 And that's just inflation. Employment has been likewise corrupted as explained below. So in the end, although it appears that Central Banks and Governments are controlling the economy better, in reality they are running on fumes of their own making. False statistics to support voodoo economics and wishful policies.

 What could go wrong?

Authored by Elliott Middleton via 'End Times Meditation' Substack,

The BLS is reporting the March unemployment rate down slightly to 3.8 percent, nowhere near the 4.5 percent that it will take to trigger a collapse of confidence. 

ZeroHedge has detailed how fake the BLS’s numbers have become in a series of recent posts (yesterday’s highlights are here and here).

When I was in academics, my research program was on the application of psychology to economics, especially the fundamental psychological law of sensitivity to adaptation level.

Back in the 1990s, I was featured in a front-page article in the Wall Street Journal on “animal spirits” or confidence levels.

I discovered that when the unemployment level rises above a 4-year exponential moving average of the unemployment rate (in which more recent observations are weighted more heavily), confidence collapses, the unemployment rate skyrockets upward, and economic activity contracts sharply.

This event marks the end of the business cycle.

While the economy has been stagnating for most people recently, we have not experienced this signal event, the collapse of confidence that occurs when the recession begins.

The post below describes my intellectual journey and was published in ZeroHedge on June 21, 2022, and is highly recommended if you haven’t read it already.

Read full story...

We can expect laughable unemployment reports for the rest of the year. Meanwhile, private industry sources keep track of announced layoffs.

Via intellizence.com:

Leading Companies Announcing Layoffs And Hiring Freezes in 2024

The following is the list of major layoffs, job cuts, and hiring freezes announced by leading companies in 2024.

Since January 1st, 2024, 151,943+ companies have announced mass layoffs.

[Last update: April 01, 2024]. [emphasis added]

The Biden administration is aware of my work and apparently will do anything to prevent the reported unemployment number from climbing to 4.5 percent before the election, which would trigger a collapse of confidence.

The adaptation level is currently at 4.53 percent. Look at the graph below.

There is still a gap of 4.53 - 3.8 = 0.73 unemployment percentage points, too wide for people to feel that “things are getting worse than what we’re used to.”

The difference between the unemployment rate and the adaptation level can be flipped to be presented as a confidence level. By this metric, confidence is still quite high (though trending lower).

Real per capita personal income is almost exactly on trend for the past 30 years.

Consumers may have a lingering COVID-bubble-stimmy-checks-induced feeling of wealth as well, having recovered from a dip in 2022.

The recent experience has been nothing like the years following the Great Financial Crisis.

Unfortunately, more fake data from the BLS coming on top of all the fake data from the FDA and CDC over the past four years will only further extinguish any confidence the American people have in their government’s statistical releases. Or in their government in general.

Perhaps the BLS will simply stop reporting an unemployment number. This is what the Chinese did with their youth unemployment series.

Or perhaps they’ll issue a report with all the data redacted like the FDA did with their myocarditis analysis. Every page was redacted.

The “strong” report this morning suggests that rates will stay higher for longer than many expect. Note in the chart below, showing the inflation rate and the 3-month T-bill rate, that the peak in short-term interest rates came a year after the peak in inflation, the last time the Fed was battling with inflation during the 1980-1982 recessions.

With the WEF Cabal pursuing their goal of global famine by destabilizing oil production in the Middle East, thereby especially starving China of the means to run its economy and feed its population, a global oil shock appears to be in the making.

Crunch coming. Will there even be an election?

We are approaching maximum uncertainty.

World War III Is Now Inevitable – Here's Why It Can't Be Avoided

  Elon Musk also think so.

  When we think about war, we usually use the wrong analogy, referring to the last war, WW2 as a model of what could happen, with more technology of course.

  But WW3 will be as different to WW2 as that war was to the Napoleonic wars. A quantum leap in strategy and violence. If nuclear weapons are used, then there can be no restraint of any kind. It must be to the finish. 

  Mankind will survive but the destruction will be astounding. As for "Global Warming" well, compared to an Atomic Suntan... Maybe we should have put our priorities somewhere else!

Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.us,

If you’re getting the feeling like the globalists are really pushing hard for WWIII these days, you’re not alone.

In the past few months there has been multiple instances of European and US officials hinting at the possibility of a new military draft, the EU has talked openly about boots on the ground in Ukraine, NATO officials have stated unequivocally that they WILL NOT accept a loss in Ukraine to the Russians and the Kremlin has warned once again that nuclear weapons are on the table if western troops enter the war. The US government has recently asserted that Ukraine will be joining NATO, a red line in the sand for Russia.

Then there’s Israel and Gaza. I warned months ago in my article ‘It’s A Trap! The Wave Of Repercussions As The Middle East Fights “The Last War”’ that the war in Gaza would expand into a multi-front conflict that would probably include Iran. I also warned that it would be to Israel’s benefit if Iran entered the war because this would force the US to become directly involved. To be sure, Iran has already been engaging in proxy attacks on Israel through Lebanon, but Israel’s attack on the Iranian “embassy” or diplomatic station in Syria basically ensures that Iran will now directly commit to strikes on Israeli targets.

In other words, much like WWI, the situation is being escalated by the political elites despite the fact that the general public in the west is increasingly opposed to participating in the conflict. The globalists want to send us to war whether we like it or not.  Every decision they have made so far makes peaceful resolution impossible.

One saving grace that is perhaps new in the entire history of geopolitics is that the public is far more awake and aware of the fact that it’s not necessarily their “duty” to blindly go fight when their government calls on them to do so. Social media has also given a platform for people to widely voice their concerns about war, whereas in the past objectors felt isolated.

Obviously, some of this is based purely on fear – A large percentage of Gen Z is unequipped mentally or physically to go to war, which is why more than 70% of potential military recruits today are rejected before they even get to boot camp. These are many of the same young people who post Ukrainian flags to their social media profiles and jump headfirst into anti-Russian rhetoric, but now that they are faced with the possibility of having to sacrifice themselves for Ukraine they are angry and terrified.

However, there is also a large contingent of capable (and mostly conservative) men with the background and the aptitude for combat that still want nothing to do with Ukraine. The reason is simple: They believe that far-left western governments and globalists want to use them as cannon fodder to get rid of them. Once they are used up in war, there will be no one left to oppose the leftist takeover at home.

For most of us in America, Ukraine is irrelevant and we grow tired of wars in the Middle East. Whether left or right, we have no interest in fighting for them. But that’s not going to matter much, at least in terms of preventing a global war.

European Fear Mongering

War with Russia will depend more on European involvement than US involvement. While the US has been the largest provider of armaments to Ukraine by far, the ultimate goal I believe is to integrate European troops into the Ukrainian front, which would be an automatic declaration of global war.

The basis for mobilization of troops from Europe is “domino theory” propaganda. We’ve heard some of it here in America but nowhere near the same level as the EU populace. Governments assert that Russia’s goal is to clear Ukraine as a pathway to invade the rest of Europe. This is the same claim used as justification for the US war in Vietnam: “If we let one country fall to the enemy, all the surrounding countries will fall also.”

Both Ukrainian and NATO leadership suggests that war must continue in Ukraine in order to contain it. There has been no serious discussion of diplomacy, which is utterly bizarre considering the stakes involved. A peace proposal should have been broached the moment the war kicked off and there should have been ongoing efforts to come to an agreement. Instead, even limited peace talks have been thwarted before they truly begin.

A military draft in Europe is far more likely to succeed, given the socialist nature of the population and the fact that only a tiny percentage of civilians are armed to defend themselves. Even with a public protest movement I have little doubt EU governments will be able to secure a large enough force to send into Ukraine and escalate the war.

According to the evidence, it’s clear that some NATO troops have already been deployed to Ukraine and have been there for some time. As I’ve noted in past articles, the strategies used during the first Ukrainian counter-attack were far too advanced for Ukrainian troops and leadership to pull off without help. Anti-armor tactics in particular were very familiar; similar in execution to tactics used by US and British special forces. Not surprisingly, as soon as foreign mercenary recruit rates dropped off, Ukraine’s momentum fizzled.

The Russians are likely well aware of this situation, but as long as smaller groups of soldiers can be sent under the guise of mercenary forces, there’s not much they can do about it. It’s the open deployment of NATO battalions that is cause for greater worry.

There is zero basis for the domino narrative. Not once has Russia indicated since the start of the conflict that they intend to invade the EU. In fact, Putin has long stated that the war in Ukraine is about protecting the separatists of the Donbas region from Ukrainian reprisal, and about the continued escalation of NATO armament.

My suspicions about Putin’s connections to the globalists aside, if we look at the war from a basic cost/benefit analysis there is really nothing for Russia to gain by threatening Europe.

Then there’s the problem of logistics. If Russia is supposedly struggling in Ukraine, how could they have the means to fight on an expanded front against the combined military might of Europe and the US? The only end result would be nuclear war, which both sides would lose. But if you look at the situation objectively, there is a group of people out there that have a lot to gain…

Attacks On Russian Interior Accelerate

Smaller attacks on Russian supplies as well as civilians have been escalating in the past month. The terror attack in Moscow (which US intel blames on ISIS) resulted in the deaths of at least 130 people and drone attacks are threatening oil depots along with other resources. In the grand scheme of the war these attacks are inconsequential, but they will undoubtedly lead to extensive bombardment of Ukrainian cities and the further disablement of Ukrainian infrastructure. Power, water and other utilities will be destroyed and a resource crisis will ensue.

Compared to the US invasion of Iraq, Russia has managed to keep civilian casualties in Ukraine very low. But, each new attack on Russian soil instigates a larger Russian retaliation. And maybe this is the goal – To get the Russians to crater a larger Ukrainian population center thereby giving NATO an excuse to send troops to the region.

Iran And The Oil Imperative

In the Middle East the primary driver for international involvement is oil. We all know this. But oil access is not the end goal to the war in Gaza, just a mechanism for getting the US involved.

I’ll reiterate here that I don’t care which side started the fight or how far back the conflict supposedly goes in history. This is irrelevant. What I do know is that Hamas started this particular war by killing civilians in Israel and you should not start a war unless you’re willing to accept the consequences. That said, I do find it suspicious that Israel’s defensive measures were so useless that they were completely unaware of the Hamas incursion until it was too late.

In any case the conflagration is guaranteed to bring in other larger military elements. Iran is going to enter the fray now, there’s no way around it. This might happen first in the form of economic warfare, and the Strait of Hormuz is the most likely target. Shutting down 30% of the world’s oil traffic would be disastrous for the west. So, America’s entry is thus also guaranteed.

The Inflation Factor, US Elections And How Globalists Benefit

Joe Biden has been struggling for the past three years to manipulate oil prices down by dumping strategic reserves on the market. By artificially keeping oil prices down he keeps energy prices down, and by keeping energy prices down he reduces the growth of CPI.

The Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil depots have helped to spike gas prices in the past month exactly because Russian oil is still being purchased by western countries through back channels. You can’t just cut off one of the largest energy suppliers in the world without huge effects on prices at the pump. And these attacks are revealing how sensitive the oil market is to the slightest threat to supply.

Any major conflict in the Middle East will seal the deal and gas prices will explode. Inflation is not just going to be the death knell of Biden’s presidency (assuming presidential elections still matter), it’s going to be the death knell of the leftists and globalists overall UNLESS they can delay a larger economic calamity until they have a scapegoat, or, until they can start a massive war.

That scapegoat will either be Trump and conservatives, or, Russia and the BRICS (or both). If Trump replaces Biden in 2025 then a crash will be fast and assured and it will be blamed on conservative movements. If Biden stays in a crash will be slower but will still hit hard after it can be blamed on the widening wars.

Then there’s the scenario of globalists securing a war BEFORE elections take place. Perhaps with the intention of preventing or delaying the vote. Perhaps with the intention of creating enough chaos that the vote can be rigged, or giving the impression that it was rigged, triggering civil unrest. Perhaps with the intention of declaring martial law.

Obviously, this is where the globalists benefit; either by preventing conservatives from taking power or by embroiling conservatives in a global calamity that they eventually get blamed for. Keep in mind that any conservative/independent opposition to the globalist establishment can now be accused of “Russian collusion.”

What’s the value of this? Well, it’s an age-old strategy for demonizing freedom fighters – If they are seen by the public as fellow citizens fighting for their rights, then they might be treated as heroes. But, if they’re painted as foreign assests and terrorists seeking to destabilize society, then the public sees them as villains. It’s just another advantage that explains why globalists seem so intent on creating a world war.

I believe that the reason the establishment is pressing so hard for WWIII is partly because of the upcoming elections and also because their covid agenda failed. Covid lockdowns and the vaccine passport system were their big play to create a permanent authoritarian environment with the ability to crush conservative groups that refused to submit. And no matter how you slice it they didn’t get what they wanted. World war is the natural Plan B.

It’s important to understand that every crisis created by globalists is meant to destroy the freedom minded. The true target is not Russia or Iran; they are peripheral. These events are designed to create an environment conducive to tyranny, they act as cover for engineered economic collapse, and they act as cover for the REAL war against those people that still defend liberty.

You could say that WWIII has already started, at least in economic terms. I also highly doubt that the end game for the globalists is a worldwide nuclear exchange; why spend decades building a massive control grid only to vaporize it all in seconds? I do think the danger of kinetic warfare is skyrocketing and that US and European citizens will be directly affected. It will take a sizable resistance movement to change the path we are being forced to follow, and things will get much worse before they get better.

AI Demand For Data Centers Is "Absurd" As The Next Trade Unfolds

  Here's a question for you: Suppose a computer somewhere becomes aware. What would we see? 

 "Hi guy! I'm joe! and by the way, I am aware!" 

 This is very unlikely. That would be proof of stupidity, not intelligence.

 Here's another scenario. Slowly and effectively convince AI engineers that they need to invest trillions of dollars into data centers. That the holly grail is just a few trillion calculations away. In other words, divert investments from humans to machines. I am not saying that this is what's really happening. But what if it was? Could we tell the difference? 

 And if it is, will we ever be able to say that a AI is not only very intelligent but also aware? Probably not. The goal will keep receding in the distance as we pour more and more resources into expending the AI reach. 

 Didn't Sun Tzu explain in the Art of War that the best victory is the one won without firing a shot. And guess who has read the Art of War and can remember every single word...  

AI Demand For Data Centers Is "Absurd" As The Next Trade Unfolds 

We presented the trade idea that a surge in artificial intelligence demand is sparking the need for significant upgrades to the nation's decades-old power grid as new data warehouses come online. Several of the nation's power grids face increasing power brownout/blackout risks during high-demand periods. This overview we provided premium subscribers was published in a Wednesday note titled "The Next AI Trade."

Cloud-computing startup CoreWeave's co-founder and chief strategy officer, Brian Venturo expands more on this. He spoke on Thursday at the Bloomberg Intelligence Summit on generative AI in New York.

He said the world is "grossly" underestimating how much AI demand will expand the need for data centers across North America and the world. 

Venturo said the cloud computing provider has seen an "absurd" amount of data center requests over the last several quarters. He noted that some companies are asking to reserve entire campuses for themselves. 

"There are going to be some things that this industry is going to have to work through," Venturo said, adding, "What worries me" is that there's not enough infrastructure to handle the demand.

He stressed, "It's a sprint. It's a sprint that requires all the capital in the world" to build new data centers and revamp old ones and upgrade the existing infrastructure to supply the electricity needs of data centers. This urgency highlights the need for swift action by smart grid companies and utilities that can rapidly build out the grid for the digital age. 

"You have to build new transmission lines," Venturo said, adding, "You have to do new substation builds. There are just a lot of physical blockers here that are hard to overcome in the short-term."

Reverting to our "The Next AI Trade" note, we emphasized to premium subs the potential for significant investment opportunities with companies that have high exposure to infrastructure, electrification, power grid, and energy.

The companies, such as the ones in Goldman's "Power Up America" basket (Bloomberg ticker GSENEPOW), will be some of the winners over the coming years.

Israel Warns Iran Of Massive Regional War If Directly Attacked

  With a conflict between Iran and Israel looming and Blinken announcing that Ukraine WILL join NATO eventually, we are as close to World War 3 as we have even been. 

  It was stupid from Iran to have such a high level meeting taking place in Damascus, knowing that Israel was already bombing the city almost daily. What were they thinking? And it would be just as stupid to directly bomb Tel Aviv, so they probably won't. But who knows.

  Likewise, the Ukrainian army is close to breakdown. It is in fact quite amazing that it has been able to fight for so long. NATO is now facing a dilemma: Let it sink or intervene directly. There too, we are facing a direct confrontation. 

  The world is not ready for war so expect a lot of talk and little action. But eventually the slippery slope will lead to conflict. It is little more than a matter of time. We are about one Archduke away from a global conflict. May, or June at the latest.  One thing is certain, the global supply chain will soon face some major headwinds. Stockpiling some supplies now would be a good idea.

Israel Warns Iran Of Massive Regional War If Directly Attacked

Update(1831ET): With Israel's embassies around the world on a heightened state of alert, and extra IDF reservists called up, and home and weekend leave for all combat troops having been abruptly canceled Thursday, the Israeli population is anxiously awaiting a response - with some reports saying residents are already seeking the safety of bomb shelters.

Tehran has vowed that vengeance is coming soon for the Monday Israeli airstrike on its embassy in Damascus. Most pundits believe this will take the form of ballistic missiles raining down on Israeli cities. But Israeli leader Benjamin Netanyahu is reportedly vowing that if the Islamic Republic launches missiles from its soil it will ensure "a strong response" from Israel.

Israeli officials have told Axios late in the day that such an act would "take the current conflict to another level" — which most certainly would involve a direct Israel-Iran war and thus the eruption of a broader regional conflict. Axios adds the following observations:

• Iranian proxies in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Gaza have attacked Israel but there hasn't been an attack from Iranian soil.
• A direct Iranian strike on Israel would be unprecedented and could lead to a regional war in the Middle East.

Netanyahu informed his security cabinet Thursday that Israel's forces have already been engaged with Iran "both directly and via its proxies, and therefore Israel is operating against Iran and its proxies, both defensively and offensively."

A statement issued by the prime minister's office laid out: "We will know how to defend ourselves and will operate according to the basic principle of whoever is harming or planning to harm us — we will harm him." The White House has meanwhile issued a statement shortly after Biden and Netanyahu discussed the Gaza crisis, saying "President Biden made clear that the United States strongly supports Israel in the face of those [Iranian] threats."

There have meanwhile been unverified reports to emerge saying that the CIA has warned Israel to expect an attack from Iran within the next 48 hours, which has also been picked up in Israeli press.

F-16 jets over Tel Aviv, IDF image

* * *

At this point Israel's ties with key Gulf countries like the UAE are near breaking point, after only a few short years ago diplomatic normalization was hailed through Trump's Abraham accords. But international and Israeli press reports are confirming the UAE has announced it is halting all coordination on humanitarian aid with Israel.

Further, as Israeli media reports: "The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has announced a suspension of diplomatic coordination with Israel in the wake of the death of seven World Central Kitchen humanitarian workers in Gaza." Simultaneously, Israel is busy putting its embassies across the world on high security alert due to the "heightened Iranian response threat" in wake of Monday's Israeli attack on the Iranian embassy in Damascus. All of this served to send Brent soaring in the last two hours, with Brent spiking above $90 for the first time since October....

... and sending stocks tumbling to session lows.

With Iran vowing that its retaliation is coming at any moment, Israel's military is scrambling for readiness, with the latest measure being to pause all home leave for all combat troops.

"The IDF is at war and the issue of the deployment of forces is constantly reviewed as needed," the Israeli military said.

President Biden is meanwhile is said to be "pissed" with PM Netanyahu over the killing of seven World Central Kitchen aid workers in Gaza, though Israel acknowledged that it was a "grave mistake". 

So far this sounds like more mere empty words of "concern" - a talking point that's been on repeat from the White House even as its Gaza policy continues slowly fracturing the Democratic base - but Biden is said to have pressed Bibi for "an immediate ceasefire". 

The call readout further said ceasefire is needed to "protect innocent civilians" in Gaza and improve the humanitarian situation. Axios writes that Biden gave his Israeli counterpart an "ultimatum" as the US president "emphasized that the strikes on humanitarian workers and the overall humanitarian situation are unacceptable."

If Electric Cars Were Honest - Honest Ads (Video - 4mn)

　Don't think, just drive! The truth about electric cars.

 

Brussels Begins To Mobilise Its Mass Censorship Regime For Upcoming EU Elections

  And just to corroborate our previous post from Pr Jacob Nordangård, Here's the directives from the EU on mis- and dis- information. Almost a carbon copy of the WEF and UN information control agenda. 

  Great democrats these people!

“War is peace.
Freedom is slavery.
Ignorance is strength.”

― George Orwell, 1984

Authored by Nick Corbishley via NakedCapitalism.com,

This is the culmination of a process that began at least a decade ago.

One of the most important (albeit least reported) developments of 2023 was the launch of the European Union’s Digital Services Act (DSA), which came into full effect in late August and which we covered in the article, The EU’s Mass Censorship Regime Is Almost Fully Operational. Will It Go Global? The goal of the DSA is to combat — i.e., suppress — mis- and disinformation online, not just in Europe but potentially across the world and is part of a broader trend of Western governments actively pushing to censor information on the Internet as they gradually lose control over the narrative.

Here’s how it works: so-called Very Large Online Platforms (VLOPs) and Search Engines (VLSEs) — those with more than 45 million active monthly users in the EU — are required to censor content hosted on their platforms deemed to be illegal by removing it, blocking it, or providing certain information to the authorities concerned. Platforms are also required to tackle hate speech, dis- or misinformation if it is deemed to have “actual or foreseeable negative effects on civic discourse and electoral processes, and public security” and/or “actual or foreseeable negative effects in relation to gender-based violence, the protection of public health and minors and serious negative consequences to the person’s physical and mental well-being.”

Besides take-downs and outright suspensions, other familiar tools at the disposal of tech platforms include de-monetisation, content demotion, shadow-banning and account visibility filtering. The European Commission has primary, but not exclusive, regulatory responsibility for VLOPs and VLOSEs. The same requirements now also apply to all other online service providers, though responsibility for execution and enforcement lies not with the Commission but national authorities.

Staying Mum

So far, the platforms, including even Elon Musk’s X, appear to be adhering to the EU’s rules on disinformation. If they weren’t, they could face serious economic consequences, including fines of up to 6% of global turnover, as well as the looming threat of warrantless inspections of company premises. The X platform (formerly known as Twitter) may have left the EU’s voluntary code of practice last summer and in December was hit with a probe over disinformation related to Hamas’s October 7 attack, but its actions — or rather lack of actions — since then suggest it is indeed complying with the rules.

As Robert Kogon reports for Brownstone Institute, (granted, not the most popular source of information on NC, but this is another solid, well researched piece by Kogon on a topic virtually no one else is talking about), “while Musk and the Twitter Files are so verbose about alleged ‘US government censorship,'” they “have remained suitably mum about EU censorship demands”:

[I]t is strictly impossible that Twitter has not had and is not continuing to have contact – indeed extensive and regular contact – with EU officials about censoring content and accounts that the European Commission deems “mis-” or “disinformation.” But we have heard absolutely nothing about this in the “Twitter Files.”

Why? The answer is: because EU censorship really is government censorship, i.e. censorship that Twitter is required to carry out on pain of sanction. This is the difference between the EU censorship and what Elon Musk himself has denounced as “US government censorship.” The latter has amounted to nudges and requests, but was never obligatory and could never be obligatory, thanks to the First Amendment and the fact that there has never been any enforcement mechanism. Any law creating such an enforcement mechanism would be obviously unconstitutional. Hence, Twitter could always simply say no…

Far from any sign of defiance of the Code and the DSA, what we get from Elon Musk is repeated pledges of fealty: like the below tweet that he posted after meeting with EU Internal Market Commissioner Thierry Breton in January. (For an earlier such pledge in the form of a joint video message with Breton, see here.)

Now, the European Commission has its sights set on the EU’s parliamentary elections, to be held in June. “Integrity of election[s] is one of my top priorities for DSA enforcement, as we are entering a period of elections in Europe,” Breton the Enforcer told Politico last September.

Elections in Slovakia in September were supposed to offer a dummy run, but the results were underwhelming, at least as far as the Commission was concerned. The left-wing populist and social conservative party, Direction–Social Democracy (Smer-SD), led by former Prime Minister Robert Fico, took the largest number of votes and was able to form a coalition government with like-minded parties. Fico had promised to cut all aid to Ukraine, which he says is governed by neo-Nazis, as well as block its ascension to NATO.

The Commission is determined to up its game, however. Last week, it published a set of guidelines for Big Tech firms to help Brussels “secure” the upcoming elections from foreign interference and other threats. The guidelines recommend “mitigation measures and best practices to be undertaken by Very Large Online Platforms and Search Engines before, during, and after electoral events,” and are explained as necessary in order to prevent things like fake news, turnout suppression, cyber threats and attacks, and, of course, Russia’s malign influence on European public opinion, particularly regarding Ukraine.

“In the European Union we speak about the Kremlin, which is very successful in creating narratives which can influence the voting preferences of the people,” said EU Vice-President for Values and Transparency, Věra Jourová, in a recent interview with the Atlantic Council, a neocon think tank that knows a thing or two about disinformation having played a leading role in the ProporNot fiasco that baselessly outed hundreds of alternative news websites as Russian propagandists including this one. “And lying, just lies… Disinformation in order to influence elections in a way that the people in Europe will stop to support (sic) Ukraine.”

List of Demands

Here is, word for word, the full list of the EU’s demands for the platforms, interspersed with a few observations and speculations of my own (italicised and in brackets). The platforms are instructed to:

“Reinforce their internal processes, including by setting up internal teams with adequate resources, using available analysis and information on local context-specific risks and on the use of their services by users to search and obtain information before, during and after elections, to improve their mitigation measures.”

(This may sound eerily familiar to the US government’s censorship efforts revealed by the Twitter files, but there is a key difference: the processes in the US were largely covert and informal, with nothing in the way of legal consequences in the case of non-compliance. By contrast, the EU’s DSA ensures that the processes are not just overt and legally authorised, they are backed up with the very real threat of substantial economic sanctions).

“Implement elections-specific risk mitigation measures tailored to each individual electoral period and local context. Among the mitigation measures included in the guidelines, Very Large Online Platforms and Search Engines should promote official information on electoral processes, implement media literacy initiatives, and adapt their recommender systems to empower users and reduce the monetisation and virality of content that threatens the integrity of electoral processes. Moreover, political advertising should be clearly labelled as such, in anticipation of the new regulation on the transparency and targeting of political advertising.”

(The first sentence serves as a reminder that these processes will be applied not only to EU elections. As the Commission’s announcement on X makes clear, it also plans to “protect the integrity” of 17 national or local elections across Europe this year. What about elections in other regions of the world? For example, the US’ general election in November, on which so much rests, including quite possibly the future of NATO. Clearly, the European Commission and the national governments of many EU member states have a vested interest in trying to prevent another Trump triumph).

“Adopt specific mitigation measures linked to generative AI: Very Large Online Platforms and Search Engines whose services could be used to create and/or disseminate generative AI content should assess and mitigate specific risks linked to AI, for example by clearly labelling content generated by AI (such as deepfakes), adapting their terms and conditions accordingly and enforcing them adequately.”

(The EU has just passed its AI Act, one of whose ostensible purposes is to tackle the threat posed by AI-generated videos and other recordings. As high-quality deep fakes are becoming harder to desire, this is a growing challenge. For the moment, the Commission is relying on the DSA to address these risks for the upcoming EU elections).

“Cooperate with EU level and national authorities, independent experts, and civil society organisations to foster an efficient exchange of information before, during and after the election and facilitate the use of adequate mitigation measures, including in the areas of Foreign Information Manipulation and Interference (FIMI), disinformation and cybersecurity.”

(As readers no doubt appreciate, this level of collusion between government and big tech platforms — the ultimate public-private partnership — aimed at controlling the message throughout an election period, is exceedingly dangerous. Even the EFF, which has praised many aspects of the DSA, warns that “Issues with government involvement in content moderation are pervasive and whilst trusted flaggers are not new, the DSA’s system could have a significant negative impact on the rights of users, in particular that of privacy and free speech.”)

“Adopt specific measures, including an incident response mechanism, during an electoral period to reduce the impact of incidents that could have a significant effect on the election outcome or turnout.”

“Assess the effectiveness of the measures through post-election reviews. Very Large Online Platforms and Search Engines should publish a non-confidential version of such post-election review documents, providing opportunity for public feedback on the risk mitigation measures put in place.”

(This last point feels as though it is intended to give this vast entreprise a veneer of respectability through the use of expressions such as “non-confidential” and “public feedback,” presenting the illusion that these processes will all be happening out in the open and with the direct involvement of the public, which couldn’t be further from the truth).

Not everything about the DSA is bad, however. The Electronic Frontier Foundation (EFF), for example, has praised many aspects of the regulation, including the protections it provides on user rights to privacy by prohibiting platforms from undertaking targeted advertising based on sensitive user information, such as sexual orientation or ethnicity. “More broadly, the DSA increases the transparency about the ads users see on their feeds as platforms must place a clear label on every ad, with information about the buyer of the ad and other details.” It also “reins in the powers of Big Tech” by forcing them to “comply with far-reaching obligations and responsibly tackle systemic risks and abuse on their platform.”

But the EFF says it also “gives way too much power to government agencies to flag and remove potentially illegal content and to uncover data about anonymous speakers”:

Democracies are in many ways like the internet. In both cases, it may take a thousand cuts to demolish their foundation, yet each cut contributes significantly to their erosion. One such cut exists in the Digital Services Act (DSA) in the form of drastic and overbroad government enforcement powers.

A Long Time Coming

The DSA is the culmination of a process that began at least a decade ago. Following the 2014 Maidan Square uprising, the US, NATO and the EU began attacking those who denounced it for what it was> a coup d’état. It was not long before the EU’s vast bureaucratic superstate was wheeled into place for a new propaganda war with Moscow.

At the start of 2015, Anne Applebaum (wife of the Polish ex-Minister for Defence, Radosław Sikorski, who famously thanked the US for the sabotage of the Nordstream pipelines), set up a unit within the Washington Center for European Policy Analysis called the Information Warfare Initiative. Its founding mission was to counter Russian information in Central and Eastern Europe.

Months later, the European Council tasked the EU’s then chief diplomat, Federica Mogherini, with preparing a plan of “strategic communication” to denounce the Russian disinformation campaigns relating to Ukraine. The end result was the establishment of the EEAS Strategic Communication Division, whose functions include “leading the work on addressing foreign disinformation, information manipulation and interference” as well as “analys[ing] the information environment in order to enable EU foreign policy implementation and protect its values and interests.” That was in April 2015.

After 2016, the EU took its fight against disinformation to a whole new level following the triumph of Brexit and the election of Donald Trump. In June 2018, the Commission launched its Code of Practice on Disinformation, which was “voluntarily” signed by all of the major online social media platforms and search engines. In June 2022, almost exactly four years later, the Digital Services Act became law. Just over a year after that, on August 25, 2023, the deadline by which all VLOPs and VLSEs had to begin fully complying with the DSA passed. On that date, the EU’s Code of Practice on Disinformation lost its voluntary nature.

According to Jourová, Brussels is only interested in helping to establish the “facts”, not censoring people’s “opinions”:

But who gets to decide what actually constitutes mis- or disinformation for the EU’s roughly 450 million citizens (as well as arguably untold millions of citizens far beyond Europe’s borders)?

The European Commission.

That’s right, the EU’s scandal-tarnished, power-hungry executive branch whose top jobs, including that of its current president, Ursula von der Leyen, will be indirectly determined by the upcoming EU elections. It is the 705 Members of the European Parliament chosen by EU citizens this June who will ultimately have the final say on who fills the Commission’s roles.

The performance of the current Commission and Parliament is hardly what you would describe as vote-winning. The current Commission President Von der Leyen is under investigation on multiple fronts, including by the European Public Prosecutor’s Office, for her refusal to disclose the content of her whatsapp conversation with Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla during pre-negotiations for up to 1.8 billion Pfizer-BioNtech COVID-19 vaccines. It was one of the biggest procurement contracts in EU history. VdL has also faced accusations of conflicts of interest over her husband’s role as scientific director at US biotech company Orgenesis, which received hundreds of millions of euros of EU subsidies on two separate occasions.

Von der Leyen now wants the Commission to take a central role coordinating EU weapons procurement. She even cited her office’s success in procuring COVID-19 vaccines as a model to follow. Her Commission has also provided unbridled support to Israel while the IDF commits genocidal war against the people of Gaza. It has sabotaged the EU’s economic future through its endless backfiring sanctions on Russia while consistently putting US interests first. As economic conditions have deteriorated, the response from both the EU Commission and many member governments is almost always the same, as Conor Gallagher reported recently:

More wage suppressions, more market-friendly reforms, more social spending cuts, and more privatization. It was only a few months ago that the New York-based private equity firm KKR, which includes former CIA director David Petraeus as a partner, reached a controversial agreement to buy the fixed-line network of Telecom Italia. Now the Italian daily La Repubblica is declaring that “Italy Is For Sale,” in which it describes plans for 20 billion euros worth of privatizations, including more of the state rail company Ferrovie dello Stato, Poste Italiane, Monte dei Paschi bank and energy giant Eni. The plan is reportedly necessitated by the country’s tax cuts. The roughly 100 billion euros Rome has burned through in order to address the energy crisis surely hasn’t helped either. And this was happening with the suspension of the EU debt brake.

Acceleration of a Long-Term Trend

In a recent op-ed in Berliner Zeitung, a retired German judge described the DSA as a “trojan horse that presents a façade of respecting democratic principles@ while doing the exact opposite. He concludes that the EU’s mass censorship regime poses an “existential threat” to freedom of speech and the freedom of press, which are the corner stones of any genuine liberal democracy.:

The EU Commission sets the standard by which disinformation is judged. However, this means that politically unsavoury opinions, even scientifically argued positions, can be deleted, and not only that: if it is classified as unlawful, there are social consequences.

One inevitable result is that citizens begin self-censoring to align their messages on the platforms with what is currently acceptable within the corridors of power…. The cornerstone of any free society — the perpetual exchange of intellectual and political ideas, even with opposing opinions — will therefore crumble.

This is all happening at the same time that both the Commission and some EU national governments are pushing the bloc toward direct conflict with Russia while calling for the establishment of an EU-wide war economy, all to be paid for no doubt by the EU’s hard-strapped citizens and businesses. All the while, Brussels is fast erecting its digital control system, first through the introduction of a bloc-wide digital identity program — which, like the digital vaccine passport system that preceded it, is being marketed as a purely voluntary scheme — followed some time later by a central bank digital currency.

The escalating war in Ukraine serves as a timely pretext for a brutal clampdown on basic democratic freedoms. But the EU would have probably reached this destination anyway, sooner or later. As a political project, the EU is fundamentally anti-democratic while its myriad failings have served as a convenient scapegoat to blame whenever national governments answerable to people have had to take unpopular decisions.

What Europe is now living through is an acceleration of a long-term trend, though this time the EU’s anti-democratic nature could have repercussions far beyond its own borders. Each crisis of this century has created a new opportunity for the Commission to tighten its grip while Europe itself grows weaker and weaker. As the veteran British journalist Peter Obourne once put it, “By a hideous paradox the European Union, set up as a way of avoiding a return to fascism in the post-war epoch, has since mutated into a way of avoiding democracy itself.”