With a conflict between Iran and Israel looming and Blinken announcing that Ukraine WILL join NATO eventually, we are as close to World War 3 as we have even been.
It was stupid from Iran to have such a high level meeting taking place in Damascus, knowing that Israel was already bombing the city almost daily. What were they thinking? And it would be just as stupid to directly bomb Tel Aviv, so they probably won't. But who knows.
Likewise, the Ukrainian army is close to breakdown. It is in fact quite amazing that it has been able to fight for so long. NATO is now facing a dilemma: Let it sink or intervene directly. There too, we are facing a direct confrontation.
The world is not ready for war so expect a lot of talk and little action. But eventually the slippery slope will lead to conflict. It is little more than a matter of time. We are about one Archduke away from a global conflict. May, or June at the latest. One thing is certain, the global supply chain will soon face some major headwinds. Stockpiling some supplies now would be a good idea.
Update(1831ET): With Israel's embassies around the world on a heightened state of alert, and extra IDF reservists called up, and home and weekend leave for all combat troops having been abruptly canceled Thursday, the Israeli population is anxiously awaiting a response - with some reports saying residents are already seeking the safety of bomb shelters.
Tehran has vowed that vengeance is coming soon for the Monday Israeli airstrike on its embassy in Damascus. Most pundits believe this will take the form of ballistic missiles raining down on Israeli cities. But Israeli leader Benjamin Netanyahu is reportedly vowing that if the Islamic Republic launches missiles from its soil it will ensure "a strong response" from Israel.
Israeli officials have told Axios late in the day that such an act would "take the current conflict to another level" — which most certainly would involve a direct Israel-Iran war and thus the eruption of a broader regional conflict. Axios adds the following observations:
- Iranian proxies in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Gaza have attacked Israel but there hasn't been an attack from Iranian soil.
- A direct Iranian strike on Israel would be unprecedented and could lead to a regional war in the Middle East.
Netanyahu informed his security cabinet Thursday that Israel's forces have already been engaged with Iran "both directly and via its proxies, and therefore Israel is operating against Iran and its proxies, both defensively and offensively."
A statement issued by the prime minister's office laid out: "We will know how to defend ourselves and will operate according to the basic principle of whoever is harming or planning to harm us — we will harm him." The White House has meanwhile issued a statement shortly after Biden and Netanyahu discussed the Gaza crisis, saying "President Biden made clear that the United States strongly supports Israel in the face of those [Iranian] threats."
There have meanwhile been unverified reports to emerge saying that the CIA has warned Israel to expect an attack from Iran within the next 48 hours, which has also been picked up in Israeli press.
* * *
At this point Israel's ties with key Gulf countries like the UAE are near breaking point, after only a few short years ago diplomatic normalization was hailed through Trump's Abraham accords. But international and Israeli press reports are confirming the UAE has announced it is halting all coordination on humanitarian aid with Israel.
Further, as Israeli media reports: "The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has announced a suspension of diplomatic coordination with Israel in the wake of the death of seven World Central Kitchen humanitarian workers in Gaza." Simultaneously, Israel is busy putting its embassies across the world on high security alert due to the "heightened Iranian response threat" in wake of Monday's Israeli attack on the Iranian embassy in Damascus. All of this served to send Brent soaring in the last two hours, with Brent spiking above $90 for the first time since October....
... and sending stocks tumbling to session lows.
With Iran vowing that its retaliation is coming at any moment, Israel's military is scrambling for readiness, with the latest measure being to pause all home leave for all combat troops.
"The IDF is at war and the issue of the deployment of forces is constantly reviewed as needed," the Israeli military said.
President Biden is meanwhile is said to be "pissed" with PM Netanyahu over the killing of seven World Central Kitchen aid workers in Gaza, though Israel acknowledged that it was a "grave mistake".
So far this sounds like more mere empty words of "concern" - a talking point that's been on repeat from the White House even as its Gaza policy continues slowly fracturing the Democratic base - but Biden is said to have pressed Bibi for "an immediate ceasefire".
The
call readout further said ceasefire is needed to "protect innocent
civilians" in Gaza and improve the humanitarian situation. Axios writes that Biden gave his Israeli counterpart an "ultimatum"
as the US president "emphasized that the strikes on humanitarian
workers and the overall humanitarian situation are unacceptable."
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