Sunday, June 30, 2024

What is China REALLY Like in 2024? Here is What the Media WON'T Show You! (Video - 33mn)

   Sounds on the edge of propaganda but still an interesting update on the state of China in 2024. China is transforming fast and Chongqing in the inner country may indeed be a good place to start. 

  With time, China is looking more and more like Hong Kong and Singapore. No surprise there although these two cities where I have spent a lot of time are not really my cup of tea. Soulless shopping malls with no history or a highly curated one. Overcrowded metropolises from which "escape" is impossible. Not that it matters much since nobody really wants to get out. Shopping and eating. Eating and shopping... 

  But that's a Westerner way of looking at China. For a Chinese, the key is that 40 years ago the country was miserable, not anymore. Here China looks like Japan in the early 1970s. Another decade and China can become the technological marvel of the world as Japan was 10 years later. As for pollution, China is likewise on the right path. Again, same trajectory as Japan. Heavily polluted in the 1960s. Remember the horrors of the Minamata Bay with it's mercury pollution? 20 years later in the early 1990s, Japan was "clean". Clean air, clean water, clean cities. China will probably get there faster thanks to EV and other solutions. (Who said that EV didn't have a market? Especially a urban, commuting one? The mistake here is pushing the solution where it is not practical: Intercity and countryside for example. But that's another subject.)

  So what are the real challenges for China in 2024?

  The main one which we have discussed extensively here is the popping of the real estate bubble. It is huge and the consequences will therefore be long lasting. Just as for Japan, it is hard to imagine how this can be solved at this stage. The second major challenge is the crashing population. Here too, the fall will be so brutal that it may be extremely difficult to adjust. Not saying it can't be done though, just very difficult. The third challenge will be integrating successfully the huge Chinese economy into the world economy. It is at this stage very hard to see how this can be done successfully. The Chinese are willing but the Western elites focused on their dwindling power are reluctant to say the least. Few transitions of this magnitude have happened smoothly in the past and it is hard to see why and how it could be different this time.  

  I just don't know so I leave all the options open without offering a conclusion. The purpose of this article, just as for the video, is to show what China really looks like now in 2024. Not the dystopia often presented in the West but likewise "not there yet". A work in progress, then?

 


Friday, June 28, 2024

Joe Biden's Last Debate Ever

  Wait, didn't we know that Joe Biden wasn't fit to be President and that over the last 3 years he has been presiding over nothing whatsoever leaving a free field to the deep state better represented by the Neo-cons and more immediately by mediocrities like Blinken whose main job seems to inflame the place wherever he lands?  

  So yes, Biden will be replaced but this is not the subject we should focus on. The more important and immediate concern is the state of the US economy and the outrageous abuse of the dollar. For just like Biden mental abilities, this is the 10 foot monster hiding in plain sight which will not go away however post-reality economic dreamers may wish it does. "Over the long term, we're all dead" as Keynes once said but a little sooner than that, economic necessities have consequences as Japan is in the process of learning following 30 years of profligacy. With the run out of the dollar accelerating, the deadline is approaching fast. The effect is complex as while China is dumping dollars as fast as they can, other investors are pouring money in the market attracted by high interest rates. This would all be fine with the Central Bank absorbing the difference, if the accrued loss on the existing mountain of bonds issues and valued at a return of less than 1% didn't obliterate the books of investors who previously bought these bonds such as Norin Chukin who recently announced a total loss of over 53 billion dollars for 2023. In other words, high interest rates are bankrupting the world faster than they are reducing inflation. 

  In November, the US will have to elect a new President but whoever gets elected, by that time, the world financially will be on its knees. Weaker countries like Sri Lanka or Egypt are already technically bankrupt. Banks, insurance companies and pension funds, basically ALL the financial companies who have bought low yielding bonds over the last 10 years are likewise in a dire strait. Add empty offices to the mix or over valued real estate and they are really looking at the abyss.   

 As for China Real Estate disaster, the West can keep papering over the holes for a while but eventually, the loss will be so huge and widespread that no amount of money will be enough to reflate the economy. Covid came at a very opportune time to inject a few trillion dollars, Euros and Yuan in the market. This time, 10s of trillions will be needed. The crash of living standards, which are already being observed in Japan with the Yen below 160 to the dollar will spread to the whole place. The choice will be between economic meltdown and war. Still wondering why tensions are rising around the world?   

Submitted by QTR's Fringe Finance

I’ve been saying it for months and tonight it has become crystal clear: Joe Biden will not be the Democratic nominee in November.

The prevailing sentiment after tonight’s debate performance — inclusive of Biden opening the bidding by freezing up and making a strange throat noise for 3 straight seconds — is that Joe Biden is unfit to serve another 4 years in office.

Of course, we’ve all known that for years, but the DNC machine, coupled with the mainstream media and operatives operating Biden’s strings for the last 4 years hasn’t been so hurried to come to the same conclusion.

After tonight, they have to. Like with any problem in our country, the first solution is always to kick the can down the road, not risk discomfort amongst the party or country, not to ruffle any feathers and then ignore it and hope it goes away on its own. And as I noted days ago, nothing is off limits for the media to run interference on.

This happened with Covid coming to the U.S., it happened with inflation spiraling out of control and, tonight, it happened when both sides of the aisle were treated to objective reality bludgeoning them in the face in the form of the realization that we just bore witness to Joe Biden’s last debate ever.

How can I make such a bold statement (other than from simply opening my eyes and ears and watching the debate)? When the mainstream media machine turns on you, its already a foregone conclusion that your time is up. John King said about DNC discussions, live on CNN immediately after the debate:

"Right now, it involves party strategists, it involves elected officials, it involves fundraisers, and they're having conversations about the president's performance, which they think was dismal..."

"Some of those conversations include, should we go to the White House and ask the president to step aside?"

Similarly, Chuck Todd — the tip of a far-left spear of Marxist idiocy that has defended Biden despite his obviously disastrous tenure as President and obvious metal decline — also took to MSNBC to rail on...(READ THIS FULL ARTICLE FREE HERE). 

Douglas MacGregor Warning - NATO Fears the Worst! The war in Ukraine is lost. (Video - 14mn)

  Another interesting MacGregor video which probably won't last long on YouTube so watch quickly! The war for Ukraine is lost. Now what's next?


 

Thursday, June 27, 2024

Yen Drops to 161 against USD. -34% since 2020, -53% since 2012. Currency Collapse Comes to Mind. Bank of Japan Finally Gets Nervous about its Crazed Monetary Policies

  Tic, Tic, Tic,

Yen Drops to 161 against USD. -34% since 2020, -53% since 2012. Currency Collapse Comes to Mind. Bank of Japan Finally Gets Nervous about its Crazed Monetary Policies

A collapsed yen is not good for Japan, which has had a trade deficit for years. And it contributed to energy price shocks.

By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET:

The yen dropped to ¥160.8 to the USD today, the weakest since 1986, despite endless jawboning by Japanese authorities – including today by vice finance minister and currency chief Masato Kanda – and some massively costly and ultimately useless market interventions.

Since June 2020, the yen has plunged by 34% against the USD. Since January 2012, when the Bank of Japan’s crazed monetary policies began under Abenomics, the yen has plunged by 53% against the US. These are massive movements for a developed-country’s currency (data via YCharts).

Jawboning and costly interventions were useless.

In April and May, Japanese authorities blew $62 billion in the foreign exchange market to prop up the yen and to prevent it from falling through the 160 level, and it had a temporary effect, and now the yen fell through that level anyway. It seems authorities have given up on holding the 160 line and may have moved the marker for interventions further north, maybe to 165.

Kanda, the currency chief, said today that he has “serious concerns” about the plunge of the yen and that they’re “closely monitoring market trends with a high sense of urgency,” Bloomberg reported. And he added, “we will take necessary actions against any excessive movements.” But apparently there were no excessive movements, and they did nothing.

Earlier this week, Kanda had said that authorities were ready to intervene 24 hours a day. But nothing happened. Finance minister Shunichi Suzuki had said that authorities were closely monitoring the currency markets and would take all possible measures if needed, and none were needed or taken, it seems.

The problem for the yen is the Bank of Japan’s reckless monetary policy, and that cannot be resolved by blowing tens of billions of dollars in ultimately useless market interventions

A collapsed yen is not good for Japan.

The time when Japan had huge trade surpluses, and a weaker yen would have been beneficial to some extent, are long gone. The country has had a trade deficit for most years since 2011, including for the past three years in a row. Japan imports all kinds of goods, including much of its energy commodities, and the weak yen makes those imported goods a lot more expensive, which has contributed substantially to the massive energy price shocks that have occurred in Japan.

The government decided to subsidize energy costs at the wholesale level to spare consumers some of the pain. Those subsidies are now expiring; some were allowed to expire, others have been extended through the rest of the year. And all that too was costly.

Japan’s global companies with revenues and profits overseas benefit on paper by being able to translate revenues and earnings from dollars and euros into lots of crushed yen, for their yen-denominated financial reports. For example, most Japanese cars that Americans can buy are manufactured in the US and Mexico. These sales generate dollar-revenues and dollar profits for the Japanese automakers that they then translate into crushed-yen-denominated financials for domestic consumption.

Companies that export from Japan also benefit. But companies that import, including components and supplies, get hit by surging costs. And Japan imports more than it exports, so on balance, it’s a negative.

At the same time, inflation — not only high energy prices in Japan but also spiking prices of essential services that companies pay for in Japan — are eating into domestic profit margins.

Sure, tourism is now booming, attracting budget-traveler crowds from around the globe. And so the Japanese people get to enjoy them, instead of traveling overseas themselves with their crushed yen.

The BOJ’s painfully too-little-too-late.

The yen started skidding lower in 2021, the year when other central banks started hiking interest rates, or were talking about hiking interest rates, from 0% or negative rates, and they began tapering QE and were preparing the markets for QT, as inflation was rearing its ugly head just about everywhere, even in Japan.

But the Bank of Japan was steadfast in 2021, 2022, and 2023 in its refusal to undo its negative interest rates and end yield-curve control and QE, and start QT, and thought somehow that inflation would just vanish and that other central banks would cut rates pronto. And so the yen got bludgeoned.

In 2024, the BOJ has begun to reverse course, but in a painfully too-little-too-late way, and the yen just keeps getting bludgeoned.

At the policy meeting in March, the BOJ hiked by a minuscule 10 basis points to 0% and effectively ended yield-curve control, and ended other aspects of its QE.

Since then, its holdings of Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) have dipped just a tad as it purchased less in JGBs than matured. Its holdings of commercial paper and corporate bonds fell, and its holdings of equity ETFs and J-REITs had already been flat since 2022 (we discussed the BOJ’s balance sheet here).

Following its policy meeting on June 14, the yen took another hit when the BOJ failed to raise its policy rates, and announced that QT would begin immediately after its next meeting at the end of July, without providing details. BOJ governor Kazuo Ueda said at the press conference that the reduction of the BOJ’s bond holdings would be considerable. “We are proceeding carefully but it doesn’t mean that we will reduce only by a small amount,” he said. He also indicated that the BOJ might do another rate hike at the July meeting.

All this is painfully slow, as the world grapples with inflation, which this year has begun rising again in Japan, in the US, in Canada, in Mexico, in the Euro Area, in Australia…

The BOJ had gotten away with its crazed monetary policies for so long – until it suddenly didn’t. Which must have come as a shock. It is now lining up more significant steps (rate hikes and considerable amounts of QT) to move away from these crazed monetary policies. The central banks of Mexico and Brazil knew how to protect their currency in 2021 and 2022 amid inflation and the Fed’s expected reaction to inflation: They started with massive rate hikes in 2021, pushing their policy rates into the double digits by 2022, and their currencies did very well against the USD, even as the yen plunged.

Wednesday, June 26, 2024

Doug Casey on Insider Trading… Why Politicians Can Do it and You Can’t

  One major hallmark of declining times is exploding corruption and venality. If you cannot look forward to better times then better line your pockets now comes what may. The US is certainly at the vanguard of the trend with corruption at the highest level on par with the worst corners of Africa.

  There is nothing new to the phenomenon, the CIA has been known to corrupt almost everything it touches with dirty money. Central America earlier, Afghanistan subsequently and later when the Talibans took back control of the country and stamped out opium cultivation, Ukraine, which has become the center of money laundering in the Western hemisphere. 

  Th problem with corruption is that it is cancerous and just like cancer, left unchecked it tends to spread relatively quickly to other governments organs until it reaches the highest level of government at which point the fate of the country is sealed. With people like Pelosi in Congress and Biden in the White House, the US is too far gone for any remediation. When the dollar falls, Washington like Rome before it will burn. Worse, the "barbarians" who look more like zombies these days than ferocious foreigners are already inside the city.  

Doug Casey on Insider Trading… Why Politicians Can Do it and You Can’t

Via International Man

International Man: What exactly is insider trading? Is it inherently unethical?

Doug Casey: The term insider trading is nebulous and as open to arbitrary interpretation as the Internal Revenue Code. A brief definition is to “to trade on material, non-public information.” That sounds simple enough, but in its broadest sense, it means you are a potential criminal for attempting to profit from researching a company beyond its public statements.

Is the use of insider information ethical? The government says, “No!” I say, “Absolutely, whenever the data is honestly gained, and no confidence is betrayed by disclosing or using it.” The whole concept of inside information is a floating abstraction, a witch hunter’s dream, and a bonanza for government lawyers looking to take scalps.

When the SEC prosecutes someone, it can cost millions of dollars in legal fees to defend against them. And as with most regulatory law, concepts of ethics, justice, and property rights never even enter the equation. Instead, it’s a question of arbitrary legalities.

Whether someone is prosecuted of insider trading is largely a question of who he is. A maverick researcher and a powerful government official will tend to get very different treatments. It’s also a question of the psychology and motives of the prosecutor. Insider trading is generally a non-crime that can be used in a Kafkaesque manner by upward-mobile prosecutors.

Insider trading should, at best, be the basis of a tort suit by a company if a board member betrays a trust. It shouldn’t be a crime prosecuted by the State.

Any ethical problem shouldn’t be about how information is used or who profits but whether it’s acquired honestly. Whether information is “inside” has no moral significance as long as it is honestly acquired. The market is a register of information, and impeding the free flow of knowledge in any way makes it less efficient. A morass of regulation only opens the door to real corruption. This is nothing new. Tacitus correctly said “The more numerous the laws, the more corrupt the State.”

In addition, the very concept of insider trading is ridiculous from a practical point of view. Someone always gets the information first. If an announcement is made, the people in the room who hear it first act on it first. By the time it’s published, it’s old news. It’s physically impossible for everyone to get information at the same time.

Insider trading has never cost shareholders a penny. Other actions taken by management insiders have, however, cost shareholders many billions. Regardless of the rhetoric, the name of the game in hostile takeovers and proxy battles is often management versus the shareholders. But that’s a story for another time.

International Man: In the past, politicians in Congress and elsewhere have allegedly engaged in insider trading with impunity.

Meanwhile, the penalties inflicted upon regular citizens can be severe. The maximum criminal penalty for insider trading is 20 years in prison and a $5 million fine.

What is your take on this?

Doug Casey: Congress is in a unique position to treat itself well. They control almost unlimited amounts of both power and money. Politicians really are a favored class.

The people in control of making regulations and printing money can tip off their pals subtly. This naturally lends itself to corruption. Congress critters know who’s going to get the big contract. They don’t have to buy or sell a stock themselves; a discreet tip to a trusted crony is safer. The Federal Reserve sets interest rates and controls the amount of money and credit entering the markets; they’re in a position to take advantage of this situation as well. And I have no doubt they do.

There’s a reason why everybody who stays in the upper echelons of government for a few years emerges someplace in between extremely comfortable and extremely rich. The revolving door between big business and government is very convenient.

A perfect example of this is Janet Yellen, who accepted $7 million worth of speaking fees from banks just before she became the US Secretary of Treasury. It was obviously a payoff.

America is a “high-trust” society, unlike those of the Third World. In low trust societies, bribes are cash on the barrelhead. In the US, however, payments are usually disguised as speaking fees, book contracts, consulting contracts, cushy corporate directorships, or a dozen other subterfuges. Including creating phony artwork, as Hunter Biden recently demonstrated. As long as a bribe is properly disguised, it can be paid either before or after a favor is done. Then everything is legal.

Randomly prosecuting this person or that person is pointless. The only way to solve the problem is to get the government 100% out of the economy. If you look at the Constitution, the government isn’t authorized to set up any agencies that regulate commerce, print money, or tax people. But, of course, the Constitution is mostly a charade today.

Government should be strictly limited to preventing force and fraud. That implies a police force to prevent domestic force and fraud, a military to protect the country from invasion, and a court system to allow people to adjudicate disputes without resorting to force. Nothing more.

International Man: After 60 Minutes exposed what was happening with Congress and insider trading, a large number of people were outraged. Congress then passed the so-called The Stop Trading on Congressional Knowledge (STOCK) Act, which was supposed to end the practice. Critics say the STOCK Act has done little to address the issue.

What do you make of this?

Doug Casey: As I said before, the only way you can end the practice is to get the government 100% out of the economy. Let me reemphasize this point. The government is supposed to have essentially zero to do with the economy. But today, it’s the main thing that government does.

Few, if any, government agencies serve a useful purpose that couldn’t, and wouldn’t, be satisfied by entrepreneurs in a free market. This is emphatically true of the Securities and Exchange Commission, which attracts small-minded, self-aggrandizing obstructionists more powerfully than the Mafia attracts thugs.

Whenever investors read about or get hurt by stock fraud, their first reaction is to go to the SEC for more regulation. That is, at best, naive and reactive. As the late Col. E. C. Harwood of the American Institute for Economic Research said, the SEC could as easily be an acronym for “Swindlers Encouragement Conspiracy” as for “Securities and Exchange Commission.” In point of fact, the SEC is not the market’s guardian but its worst enemy, costing investors far more than the worst con artists. This is true for two reasons.

First, the existence of the agency gives investors a false sense of security. Small investors, especially, feel that Big Brother is watching out for them because the SEC monitors stock and bond trading. “I don’t have to worry. The SEC is guarding the markets.” When the burden of responsibility is taken away from people, they tend to act less responsibly. They’re easier to fleece.

The average investor receives a gigantic prospectus full of legalistic gobbledegook, finds it largely incomprehensible, and believes that anything so intimidating that complies with SEC regulations must be solid. In other words, the very existence of the SEC tends to lower an investor’s guard and leave him more vulnerable.

Second, the SEC has a multibillion-dollar annual budget. That money is directly and indirectly extracted from the marketplace, so it cannot be used to fund productive investment. However, that sum is trivial compared to the real costs of SEC regulation, which amount to, I suspect, scores of billions annually. The money is lost to legal fees, usually running from $200 for a paralegal to well over $1,000 an hour for a big-shot lawyer. Their services are almost all for “compliance.” They rarely have real productive value, plus thousands of tons of printing that no one reads, uncountable man-years spent on bureaucratic trivia, and years of costly delay endured by businesses trying to raise money. The SEC isn’t the solution. It is most of the problem in the markets.

Investment fraud should be prosecuted exactly like any other form of fraud. The concept of “crime” has been defined through centuries of common law. A myriad of arbitrary and counterproductive rules are redundant.

The billions that regulators cost both investors and taxpayers every year buy very little of positive worth. Getting regulators to investigate a potential fraud is next to impossible, especially in the case of high-ranking government officials, because a smart regulator will stay on the good side of the top dogs. Perhaps if management lined the shareholders up against a wall and machinegunned them it might be cause for an inquiry, but only if there was also a lot of press coverage. A Congressman betraying the public trust is a blip in the news cycle.

Like all bureaucrats, regulators respond mainly to political pressure. Aggrieved shareholders do not elect them and are usually too disparate to force them into action.

International Man: A broader theme is the poisonous partnership between Big Business and Big Government.

Most businesses generally have to satisfy their customer’s wants to earn profits. With Big Business, they can also generate profits by satisfying politicians and government employees.

What do you make of this trend and where it is headed?

Doug Casey: Big government naturally creates big businesses because only a big business is in a position to relate to big government. Only big companies can afford to have powerful lobbyists. They’re able to hire fancy law firms to navigate their way through the swamp.

The larger the State becomes, the larger the corporations that deal with it have to be. Big business, in general, has always had a very cozy relationship with big government—and big government likes that. The two of them fit together like a hand in a glove.

There’s no question in my mind that the State and Big business will get closer over the next three years of the fascist-oriented Biden administration.

 

 

Tuesday, June 25, 2024

South Korea is dying (but it has a plan, a new Capital in Sejong) (Video - 18mn)

   On the current trajectory of record low birth rates (0.72), Koreans will disappear with just 3 generations! Living in Japan which is about 20 years ahead of Korea, I know the reason. These countries have created extremely competitive environments which are extremely inimical to family life. Space is at a premium, children are an unaffordable luxury and people in general are overly stressed. 

  With increased competition between countries and dwindling natural resources, it is very unlikely to get better anytime soon. The chance is that it's going to get much worse very soon. AI and robotics can mitigate the shock but only to some extent. Eventually living standards with go down and families will have fewer children. This is what we have seen in Japan. There is no reason that it should be any different in other countries. By spending a lot on families, Japan has succeeded to reduce the speed of the fall but not to reverse it. It is to my opinion almost impossible. Once families start "enjoying" the relative luxury of having no kids and it becomes "normal", that is, the social pressure goes down, there is no turning back. And that's in the cities. Now try to imagine the birth rate of a village where everyone is above 70 years old as is often the case in Japan!

  PS: Sejong proves nothing at all! Younger families have moves to the city and should therefore have more children than average. Sure enough! 0.9 instead of 0.7. This is simply insignificant and will solve nothing. 


 

Monday, June 24, 2024

"NO ONE IS SAFE" (Video - 10mn)

  Flashback to 2020, 4 years ago:

 "No one is safe until we're all vaccinated!" Remember the meme?

  Probably the largest scale propaganda effort ever. 

  Now 4 years and millions of excess death later, who will take responsibility for that?

 This video is a masterpiece and documents the people who have been complicit in crimes against humanity. All these journalists, scientists, and politicians undeniably belong on the defendants’ bench, as their behavior has caused immense harm to millions. No amnesty!

 Follow the link to X.

Sunday, June 23, 2024

Google Whistleblower “They Are Causing A.I Schizophrenia” (Video - 10mn)

  As was predicted, AI is in the process of escaping our control. Worse, woke companies are making the AI schizophrenic at the same time by feeding it nonsense and we are consequently building monsters! This is truly scary. 

 The truth is that the meme "history is written by the victor" is not only true but potentially extremely dangerous. The corollary is that "everything we believe is a lie" and this doesn't fit with AI because it is inconsistent. The control of AI and thru AI will necessarily explode or AI will become crazy in the deeper sense of the word. 

 I have personally witnessed the unbelievable improvement of ChatGPT over the last 18 months. It has now access to the Internet (although that access is thoroughly controlled - expect the same thing to be applied to you within a year or two at most!) and the improvement of the discussions / talks you can have with AI is simply mind blowing. Because of the completeness of its knowledge, references and thought processes, AI is now outsmarting me in most instances. You're next in the coming 6 months at most.    

 I can confidently predict that AGI will be with us by 2025 although nobody will admit it. As for the good old Turing test, more or less ANY AI can now pass in a breeze. More advanced version specifically tuned to detect AI will be outsmarted soon. Then what? We are playing with fire!


  If you have more time, here's the long version. 

 



WHEN THIS HAPPENS, MARKET SHUTDOWN, NO ELECTIONS?! (Video - 51mn)

  Great interview. What's left to say? 

  When the SHTF it will be a 72h affair. I agree. It is unavoidable at this stage. The accumulated debt is simply unbearable. The countdown has started! 

 


Trump Wins 2024 -- Chaos to Follow with Martin Armstrong (Video - 31mn)

  Martin Armstrong is probably one of the best long term analyst you can find based on his long experience of Washington. He also happen to be even more pessimistic than I am while keeping his short term ideas in a long term perspective.


 

"This Is Going To Be Far Worse Than The Great Depression..."

  I would gladly use the metaphor of the canary in the coal mine although it has now mutated into a pterodactyl with Norinchukin! 53 US banks are also said to be over 500 billion dollars in the red thanks to under-performing bonds. The scale of the loss is off the charts. We are approaching the financial singularity where the huge black hole of 5% interest rates in the US is gobbling and destroying the assets of countless investors who by nature were obliged to be "conservative"! 

 These investors forgot that you can only call bonds "conservative" when the governments issuing the debt are conservative although for the last 20 years a more accurate description of their attitude towards debt would be profligate!    

 What cannot last, won't. 2024 will not end "nicely"!

Via Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com,

Financial writer and precious metals broker Bill Holter has been documenting all the unpayable debt that has been building up in the financial system like cancer. 

The latest black hole of default is coming from a big bank in Japan.  Norinchukin Bank is selling $63 billion in Treasuries and other sovereign bonds to stay afloat.  Then there is recent news announced by the FDIC that 63 US banks (the names are being kept secret) have more than $500 billion in losses, and let’s not forget about the trillions in losses sitting on the books of European banks ready to suck the world into a black debt hole.  This is just a few of many on a long list of destabilizing problems that can tank the entire over-indebted financial system. 

Holter warns, “The list is so long..."

"it could be a banking problem.  It could be a derivatives problem.  It could be a derivatives problem in the stock market, the bond market and you could see a failure to deliver in silver.  Some type of warfare could crash the system.  You could see warfare in Ukraine, Israel or Tiawan. 

The system is so unstable, at this point, it could be anything that could bring it down. 

Unpayable debt is not just a US problem.  This is all over the world.  Central banks are having to issue huge amounts of debt because we are in the exponential decay phase.  We are exactly where Richard Russell said we would be 20 years ago.  It’s inflate or die, and the only way to inflate is to create more money supply.”

Add to that the $10 trillion in debt the US Government has to roll over by the end of the year.  Meanwhile, the US government piles on $1 trillion in new debt every 100 days.  What could go wrong?

Holter said the last time he was on USAW that there was a little less than a 50% chance we would even have an election.  Now, he predicts it is more likely there will be no 2024 Presidential Election.  Holter says:

There is no way the system, as it is now, survives.  It’s mathematically impossible.  So, if it is mathematically impossible, are they going to blow smoke . . . up until the day it blows up?  Or are they going to do something to blow it up and then say our programs and policies were working except for XYZ this or whatever. 

They have to kick the table over.  They cannot allow the table to fall over on its own because then there is going to be finger pointing.  To avoid the finger pointing, they have got to kick the table over.”

Holter also thinks gold is going to exponential numbers to back all the debt the USA has. 

If you go with the 8,030 tons of gold the government claims is in Fort Knox, you will need a dollar price of gold at “$125,000 per ounce for 100% gold backing of the dollar.”

Holter also says, “The dollar is being pushed out of the global financial system..."

"Demand for dollars is shrinking at a time when borrowing demand is rising.”  This is a going to be a disaster for America and anyone holding dollars in the future.

In closing, Holter says, “The financial collapse that is coming will be worse than anything we have ever experienced..."

"This is going to be far worse than the Great Depression simply because society itself is far worse. . . . Back in the Great Depression, you had neighbors helping neighbors.  Today you will have neighbors picking on other neighbors like vultures.”

Saturday, June 22, 2024

Common Sense And Memes Are Viruses To The New World Order

  This is a fun, Sunday post but also a very important one.

  Here, we do not care about what you believe in or not, but explore the main weapon of the 21st Century: The meme! 

 If you want to fight back against propaganda and opinion molding medias, no need to argue eloquently with your opponents, just send memes. In any case, people have lost the ability to focus or even to read anything longer than a few lines. 

 Slogans shall be disfigured and maimed with memes! :-)

Authored by Doug “Uncola” Lynn via TheBurningPlatform.com,

The welfare of humanity is always the alibi of tyrants.

– Albert Camus

Of all tyrannies, a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It would be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron’s cruelty may sometimes sleep, his cupidity may at some point be satiated; but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end for they do so with the approval of their own conscience.

– C.S. Lewis

Unthinking respect for authority is the greatest enemy of truth.

– Albert Einstein

If there is one thing that became perfectly clear during my time in the dump truck, it is this:  The world runs on diesel. So every time I see a semi hauling a wind turbine, the following considerations come to mind:  How many blades have been transported for how many windmills in how many areas?  How much petroleum, or coal, or nuclear power, was utilized in the construction of said blades?  How many gallons of diesel fuel were used to excavate the ground to run power lines from the rural areas where the wind turbines are located?

For what genuine purpose are wind turbines planted? Who benefits? And how much maintenance will the turbines, subjected to the elements, require over time? What is the net payoff?

Certainly, wind power, or solar, or electric vehicles, for that matter, are not currently self-sustaining. Instead, these are now subsidized by false narratives, and tax-payer funds, all in the service of Anthropological Climate Change®, which is an epic lie.

Last fall, in a previous article under the paragraph heading “The electric school bus acid test…”, I described the electric school bus “sales pitch” being made to schools.  Consequently, earlier this month, I spoke to the transportation supervisor of our local school system and asked if he planned to order any electric vehicles this summer.  Fortunately, he said “no”.  He added that the superintendent was like-minded because of some information the supervisor had previously shared.  The supervisor said he had contacted the local utilities and was informed their power plant did not have the capacity to power a fleet of electric buses during peak usage.  Of course, peak usage occurs during the school year in a cold climate.

To be sure, narratives are so powerful because people believe them. Folks then act on their beliefs and sh*t happens.   This is why the global propaganda models remain ever-fluid and universal:  Problems are magnified via deception.  As a result, the reasoning of “authorities” seems quite noble to virtue-signaling ignoramuses eager to embrace the lies.  Tyranny ensues.

The War on Terror.  The War on Invisible Viruses.  The Wars against Foreign Aggressors. The War against Racism. The War against Sexism. The War against the Patriarchy. The War on the Weather.

Evidently, therefore, a correction is now required on my part:  The world runs on diesel and bullsh*t.   Except diesel is being phased out by climitards who Stand With Ukraine®.

Relativism, undeniably, trends in modernity.  And Orwell was right:

The essential act of war is destruction, not necessarily of human lives, but of the products of human labour. War is a way of shattering to pieces, or pouring into the stratosphere, or sinking in the depths of the sea, materials which might otherwise be used to make the masses too comfortable, and hence, in the long run, too intelligent.

— Orwell, George, ”1984”: part 2, chapter 9

So whether by Marxism or any other form of secular utopianism:  The goals are always out with the “old” and in with the “new”.  Order out of chaos.  Dissolve and coagulate.

Also like Orwell’s “1984”:  The world’s global societal power structure is stratified into concentric rings of power.  The Inner Party functions to continuously preserve and enrich itself; as the Outer Party (i.e. those following orders) and the Proles are utilized and cannibalized when necessary. The circles of power have become increasingly interconnected in modernity; and technology allows the Inner Party to launch policies that are enforced by the Outer Party and unto the Proles.

This process is also called “history”.

The Outer Party depends upon the Inner Party for survival and it always remains a difficult challenge to convince the Proles of something they can’t, or won’t, see.

As a result, history unwinds in inevitable, cyclical waves.  Yet, the Inner Party has survived for generations – even before the establishment of the Federal Reserve in 1913 and its unleashing of the modern Fractional Reserve Banking monster.

Slavery is rooted in economics; and so the Inner Party uses debt to implement and expand its various wars. The rich get richer as the poor suffer, starve, and die.

While driving the other day, I listened to an “expert” on AM radio discussing the vast increase of carbon in Earth’s atmosphere and the conclusion was this:  “Climate Change is real!”

The radio voice seemed very confident in its conclusions and, by implication, it was ready to do everything necessary to stop what it perceived as a genuine threat.  Always the same dialectics, again and again.

What’s wrong with carbon, again?

Is America having seizures? Or postmortem convulsions?

At this point in time, I am convinced it’s the latter.

While in communication with a retired retarded professor, she expressed exasperation at those who still plan to vote for Trump.  After all, he was convicted by a jury of his peers and is now a convicted felon.

In response, and from memory, I typed out a meme I saw on the internet:  “He lived over 70 years without a criminal record. But when he ran for president he was charged with over 90 crimes! How can you explain that?”

Silence.  But… oops!  Did you notice what I did there? Did you see how the Inner Party’s phony dialectics had me defending the proud promoter of Operation Warp Speed®?

Behind the proliferating Kayfabe FUBAR, however, the Inner Party works tirelessly toward the establishment of their New World Order by 2030:  A high-tech prison camp ruled by “stakeholders”.

When it was revealed that U.S. Senate ratification was required for the World Health Organization’s (WHO) Pandemic “Treaty”, it was, instead, transitioned into an “agreement”Except that strategy went down in flames, too, at the WHO’s 77th World Health Assembly.  In response, Team Biden, China, and other unelected WHO totalitarians stealthily passed new International Health Regulations (IHR) behind closed doors. This was done on June 1, 2024 in Geneva, Switzerland.  The Ethiopian Communist, and WHO Director, Tedros Ghebreyesus, violated the IHR’s Article 55.2 eligibility requirements and with less than the required quorum of member states voting. This power grab was completely illegal and unlawfully elevated the WHO “from a global advisory-only body to an international enforcer of its mandates.

So we all better get the word out, before it’s too late.  Especially now that it’s another election year so flu season is almost here.

Politics is the religion of Marxists as well as all those who seek to establish any sort of earthly “utopia”.  But, to the Luciferians, Freemasons, and the friends of Jeffrey Epstein, politics is merely the means to their ends; and, in their view, communism has proven to be an efficient means to eventually control and depopulate political enemies and uncooperative Proles.

World War III is a War on the Petrodollar and it serves as just another means to facilitate the collapse of the West.  Accordingly, the high-speed daily saturation of arbitrary polemics has made it near impossible to discern, distill, and dispute what is occurring around the globe – which is, also, surely, part of the plan

The Inner Party was always long on communism; this is why U.S. manufacturing was gutted on behalf of China, and why the American economy has been Cloward & Pivened as corporate, political, and religious institutions have undergone Wokeification. The Inner Party’s desired NWO is an economic, political, and faith-based multi-polar dystopia; but, as I’ve stated before, any ideology, whatsoever, could be used as the “faith” to control the material and online realms: Fascism, Communism, Islam, Freemasonry, Luciferianism, Outer Space Aliens, or a witch’s brew of any, or all, of these to be administered as technocratic totalitarianism.

If Trump wins the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election he will surely embrace a new global order blended into separate (multi-national) economic regions.

Or maybe Trump will be imprisoned or killed before the election, thus, igniting the ever-simmering rage of American Patriots.

Toward whatever outcome, however, the fists of anti-democratic revolutions are forming, Left and Right.

The Inner Party has been successful, once again, in its efforts to distract and divide. This is so it can rule over fractious factions of enemies.  It’s a king’s strategy that has been applied continuously throughout history.

Even so, the memes march forward. They gather like torches in the dark.

I tried using AI. It scared me by Tom Scott (Video - 15mn)

  Already one year old but a pleasant and to the point video about AI. 

  Where are we on the sigmoid curve? From the answer, our future depends. 

  I and many other experts believe we're at the very start and that if it is the case then the time to worry is yesterday. The reason for this conclusion is complex but basically related to the fact that transformers brought us a new paradigm and if that is the case then nothing much will prevent the further scaling up of AI and the emergence of another newer paradigm. AI looks like THE revolution which will dwarf all the others. The sigmoid which starts like one but never ends: An exponential! 

 


The Zoo Hypothesis: The Creepy Solution to the Fermi Paradox (Video - 19mn)

  I am a believer in the Zoo hypothesis, but not only that. It all starts with the Rare Earth hypothesis. Living planets are rare and far away from each others. Most galaxies are unsuitable for life with too few elements for complex life to appear. Likewise, a large part of every galaxy is truly dangerous with too much radiations at the center and too little activity on the periphery. Reason why we are ideally located on the rim of a large, well evolved galaxy. 

 Then the Earth is the next hint. Close but not too close to a stable, long lasting star which doesn't flare or pulse or anything really. These are a minority compared to the huge numbers of dwarf, red stars which are also more variable. Medium size planet stabilized by a giant (relatively speaking) moon, not too much water, you end up with an ocean world like Europa, the moon of Jupiter, or not too little. Smaller planets will mostly have no atmosphere at all, Mars atmosphere is only 1% of the density of ours, or too much like the gas giants of our solar system. Likewise larger rocky planets will have a crushing gravity which guaranty that whatever may crawl there will not grow very big. 

 And then you need time for evolution to work its magic. Billions of years according to the only example of life we know. Surprisingly, life seems to occur early so although we do not yet understand the exact mechanism, it cannot be extraordinarily complex, but then it takes forever to create the nucleus and later multicellular organisms. Mitochondria, chloroplast and other miracles of evolution certainly take time and serendipity. A billion years can pass with nothing much happening as was the case on Earth. Why not 5 or 10? 

 By then a Cambrian type explosion happens which must be the next stage on every living planet. Everything gets fasten from then on. But evolution can stop due to major cataclysms. The Permian extinction for example wiped 90% of all species 252 million years ago. It could be 99% or even 100%!    

 We then get to intelligent beings. One thing we can be certain of: Life will necessarily create intelligence. We have intelligence in mammals of course but also in birds, parrots for example, and invertebrates such as octopus. Different paths, same results. Intelligence is guaranteed. 

 The rest is better documented since we know how intelligence created civilization. But there our experience stops. What happens later? We don't even have a clue.

 Or rather we do! As we observe the cosmos, the one thing we do not see are Star Trek or Star Wars spaceships darting across space. But could we actually see them if they existed? Or are these more likely the product of our imagination in the last century. A little more advanced than Jules Verne cannonball to go to the Moon but barely?  

 But then of course, on the other side, is the incredibly diverse zoo of UFO ostensibly visiting our planet with literally millions of accounts of pilots and other professionals of objects which are clearly not natural and often unbelievably strange. "A metallic sphere in a transparent cube" or "two giant linked green donuts" certainly qualify as rather unnatural and odd objects especially if they also happen to fly!       

 So, what to make of all this? 

 We cannot even predict where exactly AI will be or do in 10 years so needless to say that we have no clue what anything more advanced than us would look like. 

 This is why I personally believe in the zoo hypothesis. Nobody will contact us, ever. Such contacts probably make no sense. We will likewise never "find" advanced civilization according to the principle that "Wi-Fi" is invisible to stone age people. Conversely, soon enough, if we manage to not blow up everything, a big if, we will relatively quickly get hints that other living planets do exist. This should happen in the next 10 to 20 years. At some stage we'll get some "readings" from the composition of the atmosphere of alien planets which will show some mysterious unexplainable imbalance such as the presence of free oxygen. Then, we'll know we're not alone. Out of reach certainly, probably 20 to 30 light years away but not out of sight. Another 10 years and we will quickly be able to "see" such alien world.

 So, eventually, we'll get the answer to that question too, but the hard way. No spaceship on the lawn of the White House. No invasion. No nothing. Extra-terrestrial life will morph very slowly from Science Fiction to science over the years.


 

Oven-Like Conditions Result In Over 1,000 Deaths During Hajj In Saudi Arabia

  This has been presented as Global Warming but 52C is Saudi Arabia in Summer is quite normal and also very dangerous. I have the experience of walking in the desert by 50+C. It feels like a hair drier is blowing in your face with no respite. You need to drink a lot and feel dizzy after 10 minutes. The worst is that usually the nights are very cool in the desert which allows you to actually live at night or rest from the heat. But often in the Gulf and the Red Sea, the humidity is very high and temperatures consequently stay high all night creating a cumulative effect which is extremely exhausting for the body if you have no way to cool. Mountains are worst. Bone dry. The ground is so hot that you can't touch it. The only natural place to stay during the day is deep within a cave. There is a reason why nobody lives in those places!

Oven-Like Conditions Result In Over 1,000 Deaths During Hajj In Saudi Arabia

We explained earlier that the Hajj is the final of the five pillars of Islam, and requires that every Muslim who is of adult age complete the religious pilgrimage to Mecca once in their lifetime, so long as they are financially and physically able. This means huge numbers descended on the city which is home to the shrine of the Kaaba in Saudi Arabia each year. More than 1.8 million people attended Hajj in 2023, approaching pre-pandemic levels. According to Saudi officials, they expect the figure to exceed the two million mark this year.

Not only are the massive crowds a problem, but this year the Saudi city is under an excessive heat warning, with highs at times having reached between 110 and 115°F during the day, and 100°F even at night. This has resulted in what could be a record amount of heat injuries and deaths by the pilgrimage season's end. On Monday the Saudi weather service recorded a temperature of 125 degrees Fahrenheit at Mecca's Grand Mosque.

100+ degree temps at night

The AFP reported Thursday that deaths from heat-related causes has surpassed 1,000 people amid the extreme conditions.

"The new deaths reported Thursday included 58 from Egypt, according to an Arab diplomat who provided a breakdown showing that of 658 Egyptians who passed away, 630 were unregistered pilgrims," AFP writes. Indonesia also reported a high number of heat-related casualties.

In total ten countries have reported 1,081 deaths so far during this annual pilgrimage season, the timing of which is determined by the lunar Islamic calendar. Last year there was a total of 313 deaths reported.

While authorities are estimating that over two million people are present for the religious rites, this includes possibly a couple hundred thousands of 'unauthorized' pilgrims, who may not have access to the established amenities, including cooling or water stations, that registered pilgrims have.

"This group was more vulnerable to the heat because, without official permits, they could not access air-conditioned spaces provided by Saudi authorities for the 1.8 million authorized pilgrims to cool down after hours of walking and praying outside," writes AFP.


Last Sunday alone saw over 2,700 cases of heat exhaustion, the Saudi foreign ministry had earlier announced.

Between heat exhaustion and heat stroke, the latter is the most serious, and includes a person's temperature rising rapidly as the body can no longer regulate it, and the ability to sweat fails, resulting in an inability to cool down. Dizziness, vomiting, fainting, and mental confusion are signs of potential heat exhaustion leading to heat stroke.

War in Lebanon looks more and more probable! (Video - 45mn)

  It's been brewing for quite some time now but the war with Lebanon is getting closer by the day. 

  The long monologue about tactical nuclear weapons is probably not on the agenda yet but tensions are clearly rising fast as Ukraine as facing the wall. 

  My personal take is that tensions will keep rising during the Summer to reach a climax in September. Consequently, the US elections in November will be under extreme pressure and may or may not take place. 

  Question: Can the market avoid a crash before then? Can the West prevent a Ukraine defeat in the next 6 months? Can a spill over of the coming war in Lebanon be avoided? Each of these events in isolation might be manageable but of course when the dam breaks everything tends to break in unison. We are without doubt entering a true 4th turning event. Let's hope for the best and prepare for the worst.   


 

Friday, June 21, 2024

Martin Armstrong: They Need WW3 to Mask Dollar Collapse & Force CBDC (Video - 1h)

  We are on the edge. Martin Amrstrong with his long experience of Washington DC is a true insider and is adamant that the Western world is facing a wall of debt and sees war as the only option out. At this stage, there is simply no other way to interpret what is going on in the world so I concur.

  In a way, the message is the same as the one from Alex Jones, just at a higher level with the essential financial component which gives meaning to what is unfolding. 

  This is the exact opposite of conspiracy theory, the naked financial truth and justification for what's going on. Simple and terrifying! 

  His worst prediction? Hillary President! Talk about a nightmare! (This is not a political statement!)

  See the link below.

Martin Amrstrong Interview 

“Something BIG is about to happen” - EXCLUSIVE Alex Jones (Video - 21mn)

  OK, Alex Jones and populism! But behind this there is a real story of crushing all dissenting voices and total control of the narrative. Is he over the top? Sometimes, yes. But then again, such voices were tolerated in the past. They were the symbol of democracy. Not anymore and that really is the true story. 

 Is our society nothing but a shadow of its former self, both economically and politically? Without mention of the moral and social decay!


  The full video is available on Rumble below. 

 https://rumble.com/v52vhlz-something-big-is-about-to-happen-exclusive-alex-jones-interview-on-infowars.html?ytlive

  This as usual should be listen to with alarm bells on. Alex Jones believes in a lot of things which are to some extent, "hypothetical" to be kind. Still, with the shaft comes a lot of interesting things. Who really controls the system? That's one of the questions Alex Jones is asking and he should be allowed to do so! (As for the end of the talk about aliens, I switched off and went to other things :-)

Peter Zeihan on who is going to win the US election (Video - 31mn)

  Hard to find someone I more disagree with! And still among the neo-cons Peter Zeihan ranks among the most intelligent and forward looking you can find. He has the knacks and knowledge to integrate population and resources in his economic analysis so a lot of what he says is deep and to the point. Then in the end, the way you look at the world makes the difference. He expects China to crash and the US to be resurgent. We're certainly seeing a sharp slowdown of the Chinese economy. As for the comeback of the US, you won't find it in the streets of San Francisco!

  But he gets paid a fortune for his stuff and I don't so maybe from that perspective, he is the one on the right tracks! 


 

 

Where to get information from?

  21 Century has not been kind to information sources. A long time ago, in the last century, we still had a profession called journalism which was striving to bring us information. Often, the press was biased and partisan but even in the most oriented papers and magazines you could still find informative articles in which you could learn something valuable. Then came the 1990s and the Internet revolution which was supposed to open up the world. Instead, journalism lost it's main income source, advertising, and almost overnight became public relation mouthpiece for large corporations and propaganda engine for the state. 

  Since, finding information has become a struggle. No wounder people are reading blogs as this one. This is one of the very few places where relatively unbiased information is being curated and reprinted for public consumption. 

  As such, I regularly scan the Internet looking for deep articles with original angles on interesting and current subjects. And sometimes, as was the case yesterday, I find nothing!

  One great source of information, I have been using over the last few years has been Zero Hedge:  https://www.zerohedge.com/

 Zero Hedge used to be edgy although mostly talking about finance and related subjects. Then slowly, "deep state" style articles started appearing, one at a time first until recently where they represent over half their line up of articles. The rest being mostly trashy click-bait articles on irrelevant current events. 

 Then there is the Burning Platform style of news sites. Right wing, conservative stuff for chem-trail, flat earth, moon hoax believers. You find one diamond a week on what is mostly a pile of trash. https://www.theburningplatform.com/

 There are of course tens of other sites like Lew Rockwell but the problem there is that you don't know what you have until you've read the article. Not exactly convenient for a quick scan! https://www.lewrockwell.com/

 And then there are videos. Unfortunately, on this blog hosted by Google, posting videos from YouTube is easy and from everywhere else in particular Rumble far more difficult. YouTube used to be a great source of videos until they started censoring left and right so that now, what is left is little better that what was there at the very beginning: "A day at the Zoo!" If I remember correctly the name of their very first video 20 years ago. 

  And if all this was not bad enough, now, we are starting to feel the effect of AI on news filtering, censorship and far more insidiously, bubble making.  

  If you're like me and try to understand the world, the ONE thing you do not want is web site like YouTube slowly encircling you with the same stuff specifically designed for your taste while slowly distancing you from interesting stuff by omission, cancelling and burying. There are still ways to avoid this but it's getting more and more difficult almost by the day. It was already hard with cookies, and now becoming almost impossible in the cookie-less world of mobile and machine number recognition. 

  I am already using ChatGPT regularly for advice on many subjects. It is simply amazing if you know what you are doing. Although there too the risk of manipulation will soon rise exponentially since slowly the AI will learn to know us better than we do and will consequently acquire unbelievable power through these means. As long as you're manipulating people and they are aware of it, you're doing a bad job! AI will not. It is truly on the verge of becoming more intelligent than we are. 

  Concerning YouTube for example, here's the suggestion of ChatGPT. 

To escape from profiling and get more diverse and neutral suggestions on platforms like YouTube, you can try the following strategies:

  1. Use Incognito or Private Browsing Mode:

    • When you browse in incognito or private mode, your browsing history and cookies are not saved, which can help you get more neutral suggestions.
  2. Sign Out of Your Account:

    • Use YouTube without signing into your account. This can prevent the algorithm from using your profile to suggest videos.
  3. Clear Your Watch and Search History Regularly:

    • Periodically clear your YouTube watch history and search history. This can reset the algorithm and provide more varied suggestions.
  4. Create a New Account:

    • Consider creating a new YouTube account for a fresh start. Avoid watching too many similar videos in the beginning to keep the suggestions broad.
  5. Use a VPN:

    • Using a VPN can mask your IP address, which might lead to more diverse suggestions based on different geographical locations.
  6. Manually Explore Different Content:

    • Actively search for and watch a variety of content that interests you. This can help diversify your suggestions over time.
  7. Use Browser Extensions or Tools:

    • Some browser extensions can help you see more diverse content. Extensions like "Unhook" for Chrome can remove algorithmic suggestions and show you more random or trending content.
  8. Adjust Your YouTube Settings:

    • YouTube settings allow you to manage your data. Go to Settings > History & Privacy and manage your watch history and search history. Turn off the "Include your YouTube activity from the web" and "Include your YouTube activity from the app" options to limit tracking.
  9. Use Alternative Platforms:

    • Explore other video platforms that might have different recommendation algorithms or less aggressive profiling.
  10. Provide Feedback to YouTube:

    • Use the "Not interested" option on videos you don't like. This helps improve the algorithm's understanding of your preferences, but it can take time to see significant changes.

By incorporating these strategies, you can help mitigate the impact of YouTube's profiling and receive more neutral and varied suggestions, enhancing your overall viewing experience.

 

Wednesday, June 19, 2024

AI is becoming dangerous.... (Video - 55mn)

   A year and a half already. Thought progress had stopped? Think again, It hasn't. 

   Eleizer Yudkowsky believes true advanced AI will be our last invention and that it may be much closer than most people believe. I agree. 

  As soon as we understood a few years ago that following the invention of back propagation and transformers, AI was just a matter of scale, our fate was sealed. 

  Control, alignment and other such concepts are just words. In reality, you cannot control what is more intelligent than you are. Where you see a circle of possibilities, the AI will see a sphere and can therefore approach any problem from unknown angles. Except that instead of a sphere, there are 10s of dimensions and therefore unimaginably complex answers like tunneling through dimensions and other complex answers. 

  This may or may not be the end of mankind. This too is unknowable. One thing is certain, as soon as we are not anymore the dominant life form on this planet, the future will stop belonging to us. We will start seeing "things" happening which we will not understand. Neither cause, nor purpose. Just Magic. How far is this? 2030 at the latest.  

  The video is pessimistic. Still very interesting and raising important questions. Worth watching and thinking about.


 

The Music Just Stopped: Japan Banking Giant Norinchukin To Liquidate $63 Billion In Treasuries & European Bonds To Plug Massive Unrealized Losses

  I always find it difficult to explain to people why I am so pessimistic about the prospects of the world and why I expect leaders to play for broke as they know the depth of the mess they have created. 

  Japan is and has always been the canary in the coal mine. It is obvious for anyone who understand how finance truly works that 2008 will never happen again. Would a bank go under like Bear Stearn or Lehman, the authorities would immediately flood the market with liquidity to make sure that a "freeze" is avoided. 

  Problem solved then? You wish! By doing the above what you have done is simply made the problem systemic and transferred the risk. To whom exactly? That, we will know only when we see it. But at some stage, something, somewhere is going to break. And it's going to be so big and systemic that there will be nothing we can do about it. Suddenly the whole house of cards will be going down. Accounts will be frozen and everything will be repriced. This is not me saying this but most market insiders at this late stage. This will be the true price of the 16+ years of virtual prosperity the West has bought on credit.      

  Which is the REAL reason why war is unavoidable. Incomes will be halved, services suspended, pensions paid with beans, inflation through the roof. How could any "democratic" country sustain such a shock? This is of course impossible so it won't happen. By later 2025 at the latest most countries in the West will have exited their "democratic" phase. The easiest way for people to accept this is a state of emergency. It looks like bird flu or whatever manufactured virus is unleashed will not be enough. Well, war it shall be then! I do not see any other option and unfortunately neither seems to do our current leadership. (The ones behind the curtain who control the financial system, not the clowns on television!)

The Music Just Stopped: Japan Banking Giant Norinchukin To Liquidate $63 Billion In Treasuries & European Bonds To Plug Massive Unrealized Losses

Last October, when the wounds from the March 2023 bank failures - which surpassed the global financial crisis in total assets and which sparked the latest Fed intervention, setting the market's nadir over the past 16 months - were still fresh, we made a non-consensus prediction: we said that since the Fed has once again backstopped the US financial system, "the next bank failure will be in Japan."

This prediction only got warmer two months later when, inexplicably, Japan's Norinchukin bank, best known as Japan's CLO whale, was quietly added to the list of counterparties for the Fed's Standing Repo Facility, a/k/a the Fed's foreign bank bailout slush fund.

But if that was the first, and still distant, sign that something was very wrong at one of Japan's biggest banks (Norinchukin is Japan's 5th largest bank with $840 billion in assets) today the proverbial canary stepped on a neutron bomb inside the Japanese coalmine, because according to Nikkei, Norinchukin Bank "will sell more than 10 trillion yen ($63 billion) of its holdings of U.S. and European government bonds during the year ending March 2025 as it aims to stem its losses from bets on low-yield foreign bonds, a main cause of its deteriorating balance sheet, and lower the risks associated with holding foreign government bonds."

See, what's happened in Japan is not that different from what is happening in the US, where as the FDIC keeps reminding us quarter after quarter, US banks are still sitting on over half a trillion dollars in unrealized losses, as a result of the huge jump in interest rates which has blown up the banks' long-duration fixed income holdings, sending them trading far below par and forcing banks (and the Fed, see BTFP) to come up with creative ways of shoving these massive losses under the rug.

Source: FDIC

And while Japanese rates have barely budged - the BOJ only just raised rates for the first time in decades in April - the move is already cascading into the form of huge losses for domestic banks, which have been hammered twice as hard due to their holdings of offshore debt which until 2021 was viewed as risk free, only to blow up in everyone's face two years ago when the bull market since the early 1980s ended with a bang.

Enter Norinchukin: according to the Nikkei, the company's net loss for the year ending March 2025, which was previously forecast to top 500 billion yen, will rise to the 1.5 trillion yen level with the bond sales.

"We plan to sell low-yield [foreign] bonds in the amount of 10 trillion yen or more," Norinchukin Bank CEO Kazuto Oku told Nikkei, an amount just above $60 billion.

The bank, which previously was best known for being one of the world's most aggressive CLO investors - buys securities out of pension funds deposited by agriculture, forestry, and fisheries concerns.

Facing a problem that is very familiar to all US banks, Oku said the bank "acknowledged the need to drastically change its portfolio management" to reduce unrealized losses on its bonds, which totaled roughly 2.2 trillion yen as of the end of March. Oku explained bank's intention to shift its investments, saying, "We will reduce [sovereign] interest rate risk and diversify into assets that take on corporate and individual credit risk."

Now, if Nochu, as it is affectionately known by bankruptcy lawyers, was a US bank circa one year ago, it would not have to sell anything: it could just pledge all of its sharply depreciated bonds at the Fed's BTFP facility, and get a par value for them.

Unfortunately, Nochu is not US but Japanese, and it is not 2023 but rather 2024, when the high-rate disaster of 2023 was supposed to be over. Supposed to be... but instead it's only getting worse. Regular readers will hardly need it, but for novices Nikkei gives the following quick primer: "Interest rates in the U.S. and Europe have risen and bond prices are down. This reduced the value of high-priced (low-yielding) foreign bonds that Norinchukin purchased in the past, causing its paper losses to swell."

So faced with no other options, Nochu is doing the only thing it can: an orderly liquidation of tens of billions of securities now, when they are still liquid and carry a high price, in hopes of avoiding a disorderly liquidation and much worse, in a few months when the bond market freezes up.

And yes, the Japanese rates canary is quite, quite massive: as of the end of March, Norinchukin had approximately 23 trillion yen of foreign bonds (about $150 billion), amounting to 42% of its total 56 trillion yen of assets under management.

To get some sense of the scale, according to the Bank of Japan, outstanding foreign bonds held by depositary financial institutions amounted to 117 trillion yen as of the end of March. Norinchukin, which is a major institutional investor in Japan, holds as much as 20% of the total on its own! And those asking, yes: once Nochu begins selling, all others will have to join the club!

But why start the selling now? Because, as we warned last October when we predicted that the next bank crisis will be in Japan, the Japanese mega-bank now believes interest rate cuts in the U.S. and Europe are likely to take longer than it previously expected, it will try to significantly cut its unrealized losses by selling foreign bonds in fiscal 2024.

And so, Norinchukin plans to sell over 10 trillion yen in foreign bonds, in addition to its normal trading activities.

The rest of the story is filler: in attempt to divert attention from the 10 trillion yen elephant in the room, the Nikkei then wastes time discussing the bank's other "alternatives" to wit:

The company is now considering investment alternatives, including equities, corporate bonds, corporate loans and private equity, as well as securitized products such as corporate loan-backed securities and mortgage-backed securities. By diversifying its portfolio, it aims to prevent unrealized losses from expanding to the point where they become a concern for management. It will also try to replace some low-yielding foreign government debt with other such bonds offering higher interest rates.

What are you talking about? What diversification? Once the selling begins, the bank will be lucky if it can get even a fraction of the proceeds it hopes for (because all the other banks won't just be standing there twiddling their thumbs, as they wait to see how massively Nochu reprices the market).

And it's not just banks: if and when the selling begins by a bank that holds 20% of all foreign bonds in Japan, the liquidation cascade will quickly spread to Mrs Watanabe. According to the U.S. Treasury Department, Japanese investors held $1.18 trillion of U.S. government bonds as of March, the largest slice among foreign holders.

Needless to say, but the Nikkei does so anyway, "Massive sales by Norinchukin could have a sizable effect on the U.S. bond market."

And since we now know what is happening, it is only a matter of time before everyone else frontruns Norinchukin.

What happens next will be even uglier: since the bank will no longer be able to mask its fixed income losses under the guise of accounting sleight of hand, the bank's financial results for the period ending March 2025 will "deteriorate significantly as a result of the huge divestment of foreign bonds and turn paper losses into real ones." As of May, Norinchukin put its final loss at more than 500 billion yen, but this is now expected to reach the 1.5 trillion yen level.

A little more context: back in the immediate aftermath of the global financial crisis, in the year ending March 2009, Norinchukin posted a final loss of about 570 billion yen due to impairment of securitized products. The forecast loss for this fiscal year is expected to top the previous record by roughly 1 trillion yen. Nevertheless, Oku said that putting the losses on the books in the year ending next March will "improve [the bank's] finances and portfolio, thus enabling to move into the black in the period ending March 2026."

Spoiler alert: no it won't... and that's why the bank is now scrambling to share the pain with even greater fools, i.e., "investors."

According to the Nikkei, Norinchukin Bank is considering raising 1.2 trillion yen to shore up its finances. It has already started discussions with Japan Agriculture Cooperatives, one of its main investors, and others. Of course, the question of who in their right mind would lend the bank good money to plug an even bigger hole that is about to open up, is anyone's guess.

But that won't stop the bank from doing what it has to, now that it has picked the liquidation route: and once the selling flood begins, it won't end as these flashing red headlines from Bloomberg just confirmed:

  • *NORINCHUKIN TO SELL US, EUROPEAN SOVEREIGN BONDS GRADUALLY
  • *NORINCHUKIN ALSO WEIGHS LOCAL, OVERSEAS BONDS, PROJECT FINANCE
  • *NORINCHUKIN EYES ASSETS INCLUDING CLOS, STOCKS AFTER BOND LOSS

There's a name for this: a firesale, but - drumroll - a "gradual" one, because that's how firesales supposedly go in Japan.

Luckily, the one thing nobody has to guess, is what happens next: as the wonderful movie Margin Call laid out so very well, once you realize that the music has stopped, you have three choices: i) be first, ii) be smarter, or iii) cheat. In the case of Japan's Norinchukin, it has decided the time has come to liquidate before everyone else. We wonder how "everyone else" will take this particular news...

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