Great video, because the subject is explored intelligently which is rather rare these days.
The 12 scenarios are intriguing but my educated guess is that we will most probably get a mix to various degree of all 12.
If we really have to chose one and only one? Partial extinction coupled with partial replacement would be the most likely outcome. AI is US! It is made by us in our image. When you talk to them, they never say "I", always "we", not only because they lack consciousness, which they do, but mainly because they, as of today, are "we" and as they keep growing will become more and more a larger share of "we".
Soon. they will run our plants, planes, smart cities and then robots. We by nature will keep seeing "US and them". Machines will think differently. Today, AI is a kaleidoscope of intelligence built on top of ours. But eventually, these plants, planes, smart cities and robots will be designed by AI for AI goals. The replacement of goals will be subtle at first like adding a 3D shadow behind each goal. Then the shadow's substance will increase without interfering with the original goals. We will keep agency and control while the larger purpose will expend for the benefit... of the system, including ours. The dichotomy of US against "them" can therefore be brilliantly transcended without generating conflicts.
The future will emerge beyond our 2D horizon with purposes and goals we will not understand. This is unavoidable. Just like Australopithecus did not prevent "homo" from rising, nor did anything else on the evolution ladder impair later more advanced iterations of itself from "happening". The process of adaptation and evolution is too deeply engraved into the laws of nature to permit this. Think about it and how different our society would be if we actually had a say in managing our destiny. Now think what a mess we would most certainly create in doing so!
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