Make no mistake, we are on the very edge of a world war. We may dodge the bullet a little longer but eventually confrontation will happen.
The West is weaker, challenging countries are growing stronger, while the will to compromise is dwindling. If there is a Murphy law for international relations then what could go wrong most probably will.
Several statements were issued by Iranian leaders on Wednesday as they attended a military parade at a base north of Tehran which featured displays of attack drones and ballistic missiles, just days after Iran's unprecedented Saturday night attack on Israel.
The head of Iran's military, Maj. Gen. Abdolrahim Mousavi, addressed the army gathering saying, "Currently, we are in a state of readiness to deal with possible evils, and what we displayed throughout the country today was a small part of our capabilities," as cited in state media.
President Ebrahim Raisi was also present at the same annual military parade. He warned that even the "tiniest invasion" or attack by Israel will result in a "massive and harsh" response.
Shortly after Raisi's firm warning, an interview was published by Sky News in which a former Israeli Mossad intelligence chief declared that as part of Israel's retaliation currently being mulled by the Netanyahu government, striking Iranian nuclear facilities "is on the table."
The former director of the spy agency, named Zohar Palti, described that he has "no doubt" that PM Netanyahu could "attack sensitive facilities" in Iran as some cabinet ministers are urging it.
Palti further said the question of deciding the timing of Israel's retaliation operation is "still ongoing" and that some officials are urging Netanyahu to attack "as soon as possible." However, others in Tuesday's war cabinet meeting argued for getting international backing especially from Western partners.
While Tehran boasts of having "changed the equation in terms of establishing deterrence, The Wall Street Journal aptly describes the current state of things, and the possibility of miscalculation, as follows:
Israel’s military has long followed a clear policy: When enemies strike, hit back so hard they won’t do it again. That deterrence is no longer working.
Iran, after launching a massive missile-and-drone attack on Israel over the weekend, is threatening to strike again if Israel retaliates. Lebanese militia Hezbollah fires at Israeli forces almost every day despite frequent poundings by Israel. And Hamas continues to launch rockets at Israel even after being bludgeoned following its Oct. 7 attacks, which killed 1,200 people, according to Israeli officials.
With no side willing to compromise for fear of showing weakness and all players seeking greater deterrence, the risk of stumbling into a regional war increases.
Meanwhile, the UK, France, and Germany have sent top-ranking diplomats to Israel in order to urge de-escalation of the crisis. The Biden administration is also said to be not be on board with Israel directly striking back on the Islamic Republic. Netanyahu has affirmed 'we will make our own decisions' on security.
German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said after closed-door talks with Netanyahu that "Everyone must now act prudently and responsibly."
"A spiraling escalation would serve no one, not Israel’s security, not the many dozens of hostages still in the hands of Hamas, not the suffering population of Gaza, not the many people in Iran who are themselves suffering under the regime, and not the third countries in the region who simply want to live in peace," she added.
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