The reality is that we are already into the 3rd World War even if technically this is not the case yet. With France and NATO officially entering into Ukraine and Iran on the verge of retaliating to Israel, the very thin line between war and peace will be crossed. The famous Rubicon of the Romans.
As we have warned year after year on this blog, the risk of war was growing in direct correlation with the deepening economic crisis in the West. When you do not know what to do next, you go to war. This has historically been the next move for most governments around the globe even if in insight often this was a disastrous move.
What can we say about the coming conflict except that there will be no winner? In reality. the winner will be the country which loses the least.
Developing countries will be severely damaged since international trade will quickly plummet. Food and energy will become scarce so if you can't feed your population, well, hard luck! Larger countries will close on themselves. In fact, all this has happened so many times in the past that we can predict the general outcome. The main difference this time will be the scale and of course the risk of nuclear weapons.
If these weapons are used massively, as Albert Einstein predicted, we will be back to the stone age in no time. A very strange stone age with technology all around but stone age nevertheless since the ability to build complex things will be gone. Again, this is something which has happened several times in the past: The great crash of the Bronze age in BCE 1177 and the end of the Western Roman age in CE 453. It will take several centuries for mankind to recover from the madness.
Note the uncanny 1500 year cycle that no one has been able to make sense of to date. A fluke? An omen? We will know soon enough.
Iran Readies Over 100 Cruise Missiles For Possible Strike Against Israel: US Officials
Update(1740): Multiple European airlines have canceled all flights to and from Iran, and flight trackers also indicate that skies above Israel are clear of civilian aviation.
Speculation is at a frenzy over the 'when & where' of the coming Iranian retaliation attack. "Anonymous US officials" have been feeding alarming headlines to media outlets all day - and among them the following:
Iran has readied a large number of missiles for a possible strike, according to three U.S. officials. Two of the officials said that Iran has readied more than 100 cruise missiles for a possible strike. Iran has also readied a sizeable number of drones that could be used in an attack on Israel, according to one official.
The officials said that Iran has been readying the missiles and drones over the last week.
The Pentagon has continued to move US naval assets closer to Israel, in apparent preparation to assist in repelling any potential attack.
Some have speculated that Hezbollah's stepped up attacks on northern Israel in the last hours are meant as a prelude to bigger Iranian attack...
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Update(1317ET): Israeli hospitals have been put on a high state of alert by the home command, awaiting an 'imminent' Iranian retaliation attack. Iran has also reportedly put the United States on notice...
Three U.S. Officials told Axios : Iran has sent a message to the U.S. through several Arab countries, that if they interfere in Iran's response against Israel, U.S. bases in the region will be struck.
Meanwhile, Russia just chose quite the wrong moment to conduct a test-firing of an intercontinental ballistic missile from its Kapustin Yar airbase in southern Russia. The rocket was reportedly seen soaring high in the atmosphere from parts of northern Iraq and Iran, triggering concerns it was Iran beginning its attack.
Below are some breaking headlines:
- ALERT US sends reinforcements to Middle East amid fears of Iran attack: official
- A large number of Iron Dome missiles were launched in the Upper Galilee after a salvo of 50 missiles was launched from Lebanon
- Israel's Channel 12 reports Home Front Command has sent hospitals a message in the last hour asking hospital managers to ensure staff availability.
- The White House has Confirmed a change in U.S. Force and Alert Posture across the Middle East, but has Refused to go into further details.
Hezbollah appears to have ramped up its missile salvos over northern Israel:
There are also new reports that the US Navy has parked an advanced missile ship just off Israel's coast, readying to assist with a possible response.
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Update(1116ET): At a moment US intelligence has indicated that Iran could strike Israeli soil in the next 24 to 48 hours, a top US general was spotted at an airbase in central Israel on Friday. US Central Command (CENTCOM) chief Gen. Michael Erik Kurilla met with Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant at Hatzor Airbase "a short while ago," according to Times of Israel military correspondent Emanuel Fabian.
The two defense officials discussed "readiness for an Iranian attack against the State of Israel, which may lead to regional escalation," an official statement of the visit by Gallant's said. Given it could be "bombs away" at any moment, is it a good idea for America's top regional general to be hanging out at one of the very bases which could be directly targeted?
"Our enemies think that they can pull apart Israel and the United States, but the opposite is true, they are bringing us together and strengthening our ties. We stand shoulder to shoulder," Gallant's statement continued.
"I am certain that the world sees the true face of Iran, the terrorist body that incites terror attacks across the Middle East, and funds Hamas, Hezbollah, and additional forces [proxies], and now also threatens the State of Israel," the Israeli defense chief added. "We are prepared to defend ourselves on the ground and in the air, in close cooperation with our partners, and we will know how to respond."
It goes without saying that if top US military officials are currently on the ground and find themselves in the attack path when Iranian missiles are launched, it could be a direct trigger for massive regional war, given Washington wouldn't hesitate to respond in a big way against Tehran in that scenario.
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Iran is expected to attack Israel by week's end, or at least within the coming days. However, the degree of telegraphing has almost taken the teeth out of the threat and what Iran hopes to accomplish in its retaliation.
"Iran is calibrating its plans for a major retaliatory strike against Israel to send a message — but not spark a regional war that compels Washington to respond, the U.S. assesses," Politico reports of what's expected. "Biden administration officials judge that Iran is planning a larger-than-usual aerial attack on Israel in the coming days, one that will likely feature a mix of missiles and drone strikes, said two U.S. officials who were granted anonymity to detail sensitive intelligence assessments."
The Pentagon has apparently moved naval assets closer to Israel in expectation of Iranian strikes (or else major attacks from their proxies like Hezbollah or the Houthis), including the USS Eisenhower aircraft carrier which is patrolling the Red Sea. Israel's Channel 14 also reports, "The US military deployed a missile ship with advanced defense capabilities near the shores of Israel."
The US has said it is ready to coordinate a response with Israel if it is hit; however, the defense consensus is that Iran is unlikely to send missiles and drones directly from its soil. CBS has newly cited two US officials who say that "a major Iranian attack against Israel was expected as soon as Friday, possibly to include more than 100 drones and dozens of missiles aimed at military targets inside the country."
But so far the past days have been a constant avalanche of speculation as an attack remains 'imminent'. The US State Department is taking action, issuing a security warning to all government employees and their families for the US Embassy in Jerusalem. Travel restrictions have been placed on their movements, after the embassy has been on edge ever since Israel's unprecedented April 1st attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus.
"Out of an abundance of caution, U.S. government employees and their family members are restricted from personal travel outside the greater Tel Aviv, … Jerusalem, and Be’er Sheva areas until further notice,” US Embassy security alert, issued Thursday says.
"The U.S. Embassy in Jerusalem reminds U.S. citizens of the continued need for caution and increased personal security awareness as security incidents often take place without warning," the alert continued. "The security environment remains complex and can change quickly depending on the political situation and recent events."
Several other countries have issued travel warnings to their citizens, while bracing for a possible bigger war in the Middle East, including Russia and India of late. The UK and France have reportedly called on their citizens to leave immediately, citing an inevitable attack from Iran.
Meanwhile the speculation continues as to the timing, with The Wall Street Journal on Friday reporting that "Israel is preparing for a direct attack from Iran on southern or northern Israel as soon as Friday or Saturday, according to a person familiar with the matter."
However, even US intelligence doesn't have a crystal ball. The WSJ follows with this caveat: "A person briefed by the Iranian leadership, however, said that while plans to attack are being discussed, no final decision has been made."
Starting Thursday, Gen. Michael Erik Kurilla, commander of U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), arrived in Israel amid reports that the US and Israel could respond jointly to any imminent Iranian attack on Israel. Alarmingly, Ynet reports Friday that "The IDF and Mossad approved plans for an attack on Iran in the event that Israel would come under attack from Iranian territory. Additionally, the coordination between the U.S. and Israeli militaries, has increased."
Below are the morning's geopolitical headlines via Newsquawk:
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MIDDLE EAST - EUROPEAN MORNING
- "The (Israeli) army and the Mossad approved plans to target the heart of Iran if Israel (is) bombed from inside Iranian territory", via Al Jazeera citing Yedioth Ahronoth.
- Hamas sources: "The organization's leadership informed the mediators that it is not interested in further discussions about the deal, as long as there is no progress in its demands...", according to journalist Kais citing Hezbollah-affiliated press.
- "US official to Al-Arabiya: We will participate in the response if Iran escalates with an appropriate response", according to Al Arabiya
MIDDLE EAST
- Israel is prepared for an Iranian strike from its territory in the next 48 hours, according to WSJ. Israeli army said Iran is preparing its proxies in the region to attack them, according to Al Arabiya.
- Israeli Defence Minister Gallant told US Defense Secretary Austin that a direct Iranian attack on Israeli territory would compel Israel to respond in an appropriate way against Iran, according to Axios.
- Iran reportedly signalled to Washington it will respond to Israel's attack on its Syrian embassy in a way that aims to avoid major escalation and it will not act hastily, according to Reuters citing Iranian sources. Furthermore, a source familiar with US intelligence was not aware of the message conveyed but said Iran has been very clear its response would be controlled and non-escalatory, and planned to use regional proxies to launch a number of attacks on Israel.
- US President Biden's administration officials judge that Iran is planning a larger-than-usual aerial attack on Israel in the coming days which will likely feature a mix of missiles and drone strikes, according to two US officials cited by Politico.
- US official said the US expects an attack by Iran against Israel which they think will be calibrated to be bigger than usual but not so big it would draw the US into war, while US officials have also been in touch with regional partners to discuss efforts to manage and ultimately reduce further risks of escalation.
- US said it had restricted its employees in Israel and their family members from personal travel outside the greater Tel Aviv, Jerusalem and Be'er Sheva areas amid Iran's threats of retaliation against Israel.
- US State Department senior official said a robust conversation with Iraq is likely to lead to a second US-Iraq joint security cooperation dialogue later this year.
OTHER
- US President Biden warned that any attack on Philippine vessels in the South China Sea would invoke their mutual defence treaty.
- China's top legislator Zhao Leji and North Korean counterpart discussed promoting exchange and cooperation in all fields, according to KCNA.
- Four drones shot down overnight near Russia's Novoshakhtinsk in a town in near proximity to an oil refinery
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